Tonight, Matt Cain and Kyle Lohse will face off in Game 7 of the NLCS. The winning team will host the Tigers on Wednesday in Game 1 of the World Series. That much, barring a rainout, we can be sure of.

But not much else. Baseball is a very unpredictable game. Great teams lose one-third of their games during the regular season and horrible teams win one-third of their games. This year, baseball’s best team lost 39.5% of their games and baseball’s worst team won 34%!

The old adage reminds us that “it’s what you do with the other 1/3 that counts.”

Yet in October, in a match-up of teams who finished the regular season within six games of each other, you can’t really play the long run percentages. Both teams are starting their best pitcher over the last six months. Both teams have won 3 of the last 6 meetings over the last eight days.

The best evidence you can cite if you’re making a prediction is that the Giants are at home and they are facing the Cardinals, who performed worse on the road this year. Other than that, this is a coin flip.

In the playoffs, it’s my view that every single game is a coin flip because all of the teams are roughly equivalent. Even most series are coin flips. You hope your pitchers execute and you pray the other guys’ don’t.

While that may be an oversimplification and you can definitely do things to maximize your chances of winning and minimize them (see Washington, Ron), mostly You Can’t Predict Baseball (@cantpredictball).

Whatever, let’s try anyway!

Why the Giants Will Win

Matt Cain is better than Kyle Lohse, even if it was pretty close in 2012. Plus, the Giants are at home and have won the last two games. Despite how odd this sounds as well, Bochy is probably a better skipper than Matheny and can run out a better army of relievers. The Cards may have a good offense, but AT&T Park is where offense goes to die (apologies to Safeco Field, you can’t even win this).

Why the Cardinals Will Win

Have you watched baseball in the last twelve months? The Cardinals always win elimination games and they do so in spectacular fashion. It’s practically the only thing we can really be sure of anymore.

The Gist

I think the Cardinals edge this one out. Let’s say 4-2 with an 8^th inning 3-run homerun from someone weird, like I don’t know, Skip Schumaker. That just feels right. Feels very Cardinals.

So sit back, DVR the debate, and enjoy sudden death, winner take all baseball. There are only 5 to 8 games left in 2012, and I’m not quite ready for it to be over. Except for Joe Buck and Tim McCarver. I’m ready for them to be over.