Since SABR Toothed Tigers is run by a Political Science graduate student, we couldn’t ignore the presidential election. However, this is a non-partisan site that doesn’t want anyone to be put off, so we’re releasing our Electoral map based entirely on baseball.
Here’s how it works. We take the swing states as listed at 270towin.com (NV, CO, IA, WI, MI, OH, PA, NH, VA, NC, and FL) and apply baseball! The non-swing states go to the candidate that should win them and the swing states are determined with a simple formula.
That formula is this: Whichever baseball team(s) dominate(s) that state’s television viewing is assigned to that state. So New Hampshire is the Red Sox and the Pirates and Phillies are Pennsylvania, etc.
Sum(2012 Wins) – Sum(2008 Wins) = State win total
If state win total is positive, Obama wins.
If state win total is negative, Romney wins.
Basically, are you better off this year than you were when Obama was elected. Here are the results.
This specific formula is probably unlikely if you ask someone who actually understands politics, but most cable news channels don’t put those people on TV anyway, so our view is just as valid as theirs.
Based on the MLB Win Total Model here at STT, we project President Obama will be reelected 289-249.
