Stuck Between the Yankees and the A’s: Mid-Market Business Models
The Marlins embarrassing fire sale has a lot of people talking about the business model of that franchise and how it has long been a bare bones payroll operation that feasts on revenue sharing. Essentially, the Marlins ownership is operating the cheapest team possible so that they can profit from MLB redistributing wealth designed to help small market teams increase payroll and be more competitive.
Revenue sharing is meant to take from the rich and give to the poor. It’s supposed to take money from the Yankees and give it to the A’s so that the A’s can add a little more payroll and be a little more competitive. It’s good for the parity of the sport.
But the Marlins are gaming the system and running a skeleton crew because the only condition of revenue sharing is being an MLB team. Other small market clubs don’t do this. They are trying to win with limited resources and find creative ways to do so. Tampa Bay and Oakland are classic examples of clubs that sell high on players who are due big raises and buy low on guys who are undervalued.
They play Moneyball. Miami plays “Losing Ball.” Just put 25 guys on a roster and feast on the profits. It’s obnoxious and the next CBA should put rules in place to spot it, but it got me thinking about market size and success.
A lot of smaller market/revenue clubs have exploited the Moneyball model and won a lot of games in the last decade. We also see a lot of big market teams win. What about the middle range clubs?
I think middle market clubs might actually be at a disadvantage and I’d like to outline why.
Big market teams can afford risky extensions and free agent contracts to good players. If the Yankees overpaid Alex Rodriguez (they did), they are not threatening the long term health of the franchise. If that contract stinks in 2014, they can spend their way out of the hole. They may choose not to, but they have that option given the resources at their disposal.
Small market clubs have the opposite arrangement. They can only afford favorable contracts. They lock up young players very early and guarantee a smaller sum, but do so much earlier than they have to. On the FA market, they sign players coming off down years and injuries who rich teams don’t bid on.
Both approaches have worked in recent memory. The Yankees and A’s are great examples. They both won 94+ games this year with dramatically different business models. Both can be successful if the right leadership is in charge.
But I believe that mid-market clubs are in a tough situation relative to the big and small markets. Mid-market teams have the resources to spend on the market, but they can only do so in a limited way. The Brewers, for example, could afford to sign Josh Hamilton this year (or Fielder last year), but if they plunked down that cash, they would be boxed in for years to come. If the contract didn’t work out as planned, they would not be able to spend their way out of it in 4 years and would be stuck with Hamilton and a bunch of AAAA players.
They have the money to spend sometimes, but not all the time. Their fans demand action, but if the action fails because all big deals are risky, they cannot fix it with another big deal. If they don’t provide action and sign Casey Kotchmans, their fan base will be unhappy because they look at the payroll and see the flexibility.
They have the money to spend, but if they spend it now, they can’t spend it later. In other words, when they go for it, they have to guess right. Signing that big player has to work out or it torpedoes the club for years.
These clubs want to avoid risk, but fans demand risk because they know the team can afford it. Fans are impatient and want to win now, but organizations want to win consistently. If they take a bad risk, it will ruin them.
The Yankees can take bad risks and spend out of them. The A’s never take bad risks because they can’t afford it. The Brewers can take risks, but they can only do so every so often. With an impatient population like sports fans, that’s a tough spot to be in if you’re a GM.
When do you spend? If you think Hamilton is a bad risk, you should pass. But if you pass too much, your fans start to drift away. They start to resent you. If they stop coming, the payroll is more constrained and you can’t win them back as easily.
Basically, mid-market clubs are stuck between spending and fans who understand why they can’t spend.
Tampa Bay and Oakland can trade their star players on the cusp of free agency and their fans understand that they’re getting a good return at the right time before they can’t afford these stars. A lot of mid-market teams can’t do that. Imagine the Reds trading Votto this year before the extension. Fans would have revolted.
We often speak about the struggles of the small market clubs, but small market clubs have gotten it right in the past. It’s not impossible to succeed in that framework. I think it’s harder to win from the middle because you have to balance resources with expectations.
That said, it’s hard to feel bad for MLB GMs who have one of the most fun jobs in the world.
The Mysterious Eric Hosmer
2012 opened with very high hopes for Royals’ 1B Eric Hosmer. He was coming off a solid four month debut in 2011 and had a monster spring training. Scouts in ST said he looked as good as anyone in baseball at the plate in March.
Hosmer was one of the breakout candidates in baseball in 2012, but that didn’t happen. I was among the fans of Hosmer who saw big things in 2012 and put my money where my mouth was, drafting him 66th overall in my fantasy baseball league, right about where Yahoo! had him ranked. He finished in the 340s.
But we all know that fantasy baseball stats don’t reflect a player’s true performance, so that isn’t enough to tell us Hosmer disappointed. But he did. He posted a -1.1 WAR in 2012 which was among the ten worst in all of baseball among qualified hitters.
Hosmer, the future star, played like Michael Young and Brennan Boesch according to WAR and traditional fantasy stats. Or did he?
I went inside the numbers, and I have no idea what to think. He posted a 1.6 WAR in 2011 in about 75% of a season, so let’s call it a baseline of 2.2 WAR. We would expect him to improve in his second season, so let’s say we’d expect him to put up a 3.0 WAR in 2012.
His true WAR was 4.1 wins below that number. That’s pretty substantial. Let’s try to explain why.
First, UZR doesn’t like his defense (although many expect him to be a top tier gloveman), but it didn’t like his defense much last year. That accounts for maybe 0.5 WAR of the difference.
Hosmer walked more in 2012, but also struckout a bit more. The slash line dropped across the board. The average dropped 60 points, OBP by 30, SLG by more than 100. His BABIP also fell by more than 60 points.
So this would seem to indicate he was making the same amount or more contact, but the contact he was making was substantially worse. Is that true?
His line drive rate is the same and he’s traded 4% of his flyballs for groundballs, but that can’t be it. He hit fewer infield popups. He swung at fewer pitches outside the strikezone.
What happened to Eric Hosmer?
Two explanations emerge. First, Hosmer is hitting the ball just as squarely, but is doing so with substantially less force. I would think that this would result in more popups and fewer line drives, but it’s possible that it doesn’t. Maybe, Hosmer lost power despite getting a year older and a year better.
Or maybe he was extremely unlucky. Maybe he was so unlucky we can’t even believe it. His BABIP dropped dramatically, which is an indicator of luck. But there is skill inside BABIP, maybe that skill deteriorated. We generally think as sample size increases, luck tends to balance out.
But we also know that BABIP takes three years to balance out to the real value. What if Hosmer had the unluckiest of seasons?
It seems unlikely, but we would expect that over the course of many seasons, one player would stand out as supremely unlucky over the course of a season. Wouldn’t simple randomness lead us to at least one strange outlier?
That’s my take. I don’t really know what happened to Eric Hosmer in 2012, but I have images of the 2011 version of him mashing baseballs with tenacity, so I’m not so sure I know what else to think.
Maybe 2013 will provide us with answers. But for now, I’m calling Eric Hosmer’s 2012 season the Unluckiest of All.
Tigers Get Their Man, Ink Hunter to a Two Year Deal
I was among the first to call for it and predict it over the last few weeks here at SABR Toothed Tigers, but I won’t take credit for it because of how obvious a fit it was. The Tigers signed OF Torii Hunter to a 2 year, $26 million deal this afternoon to flank Austin Jackson in LF or RF depending on future moves.
This is a phenomenal signing by Dave Dombrowski. Hunter can fill in as the Tigers #2, #5, or #6 hitter depending on how the rest of the offseason goes and he can play a great corner outfield even at 37 years old. Better yet, he can mentor the budding star of Austin Jackson.
Since becoming a regular in 2001, Hunter has had one below average offensive season for his position. He’s a career .277/.335/.466 hitter and has actually been better by those standards as he’s gotten older. Hunter is clearly an offensive upgrade for the Tigers in the corners for the next two seasons as the kids get ready and he does not show any sign of dropping off.
He may start to slow down at the plate, but has only posted a wOBA below .334 once since becoming a regular and had his second best season by that metric last year.
He’s a big upgrade on defense over the Boesch/Berry tandem that got most of the playing time in 2012. He started to lose a step in CF in 2010, but the shift to RF over the last two seasons has been great for him and he’s back to being a top flight defender. For the Tigers, average would have been enough.
But Hunter’s value to me is heavily driven by his leadership and teaching ability. Mike Trout, the Angels phenom, has routinely credited Torii Hunter for his development. Trout’s talented on his own, but Hunter has been there to help him learn some of the nuances of playing defense and being a big league player.
I’m excited to see how Hunter can help Jackson, who is very talented, improve his overall game and turn into a star in centerfield.
I don’t know how much this matters, but in a sport with fewer and fewer black stars, it should help to have Hunter as a mentor to Jackson because he may identify with him. Hunter was a star for the Twins in the early 2000s and seems like the kind of player Jackson sought to emulate. It helps that they’re both from Texas and play a similar style of baseball.
Hunter’s value as a hitter, defender, and leader should be plenty enough to justify the $13 million he’ll make this year and next. He’s never posted under a 2.4 WAR as a starter and is coming off his best season. He’s also moving to a slightly better hitters’ park and gets to hit between Jackson and Cabrera most likely, which should feel familiar to Trout and Pujols, not to mention a slightly easier division.
This was a great signing and an obvious choice, but I have to say it’s one of Dombrowski’s best free agent signings. Kenny Rogers and Victor Martinez come to mind as others, but this is a deal that benefits the Tigers tremendously without being large and cumbersome. Obviously Pudge, Maggs, and Prince were great signings, but those required truckloads of cash.
This deal, like the Rogers and Martinez signings, was for market value. This is a great deal for the Tigers and I can’t wait to see Hunter in the Old English D.
Blue Jays Trade for Entire Marlins Roster, Avoid Centerfield Statue
Tonight the Marlins agreed in principle to a deal that would send Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, and John Buck to the Blue Jays for Yunel Escobar and a handful of solid prospects.
This deal was a massive salary dump. They traded their #1 and #2 starters, their shortstop, a solid utility player and one of their catchers for a haul of prospects that does not measure up to the package they sent.
They dumped everyone on their roster that had any kind of salary this year. They did so long before those contracts were up. They did so after one year at a $400 million stadium they begged the city of Miami to build.
This is a farce. The ownership of the Marlins went on and on about how they were changing baseball in Miami and this looked like a franchise ready to break out. Fooled us.
Four bad months of baseball and it was “Sell, sell, sell” in South Beach. What a sham.
Giancarlo Stanton and Ricky Nolasco voiced their displeasure on Twitter tonight. Fans were livid. The owners blew up the Marlins one year into a massive overhaul of the franchise. I can’t imagine anyone going to a game in Miami this year unless you’re a fan of the visiting team.
There ought to be a coup in Miami. This is a joke.
Now if you’re a Blue Jays fan, I’m very happy for you. You just went from solid team in a tough division to contender in a tough division. You upgraded your rotation in a big way. You dramatically improved at short. You’ve added depth. You hardly lost anything you can’t replace.
This is a good day for baseball in Canada and a sad one in Miami. As far as I’m concerned, we’ve lost a generation of young fans in Florida because we’ve allowed crooks to run the Marlins while a gem of an organization in Tampa Bay can’t get a decent stadium despite a phenomenally interesting and successful club.
My heart goes out to anyone who bought a jersey in Miami without the name “Stanton” on it, and even those of you who did, because he’ll be gone soon too. What a sad moment for baseball.
But I rejoice for Blue Jays fans and am excited to see them contend with an Orioles team on the rise and perennially good clubs like New York, Boston, and Tampa Bay.
Tonight the Blue Jays traded for the entire Marlins roster and were smart enough not to ask for the homerun sculpture. The Marlins traded away their entire roster for way less than market value and couldn’t even dump that centerfield monstrosity. That tells you about everything you need to know.
Building the 2013 Tigers: Pitching Staff
Yesterday, I posted my thoughts on building the 2013 Detroit Tigers position players. Today let’s cover the pitching staff.
Most pitching staffs are 12 man, 5 starter units, so let’s look at who is assured of a spot.
Verlander (SP), Fister (SP), Scherzer (SP), Porcello (SP), Smyly (SP/RP), Benoit (RP), Coke (RP), Dotel (RP), and Alburquerque (RP) appear to be locks barring injury. That leaves us with one starting spot and two bullpen sports if Smyly goes to the pen or three bullpen spots if he does not.
The Tigers have a number of in house candidates to fill those spots. Bryan Villarreal, Duane Below, Casey Crosby, Daniel Schlereth, Andy Oliver, and Bruce Rondon are all guys who will get a shot at a job out of spring training. I expect others will to, but then this post would just become a list of names you could find anywhere.
It’s hard to imagine the Tigers making a big splash on the market for a starter with $20 million committed to Verlander and raises coming to the Fister/Scherzer/Porcello trio. The only starters currently available who I like more than Smyly are going to fetch 3+ years and $30 + million, which isn’t really in the budget for a team that needs help in the outfield and bullpen more pressingly. The rotation is one of the best in the game, so I’m giving the 5 spot to Smyly.
So far our staff looks like this:
SP: Verlander, Fister, Scherzer, Porcello, Smyly
RP: Benoit, Dotel, Coke (L), Alburquerque, TBA, TBA, TBA
We need to fill three spots and one of those spots should be filled by a lefty. My view is that two should come from our in-house crop and one should come from the market. I think Villarreal could prove useful again as he did until very late in 2012 and I’m a fan of Below as a first lefty. Crosby, Oliver, and Schlereth all have the ability to be a first lefty as well.
Rondon is the wild card because he’s the legitimate relief ace prospect of the bunch. He throws 100 mph and the breaking pitch is good. He has command issues at times, but he’s young. It looks like he’ll get a shot to break camp and they should let him. Pick an in house lefty and let Rondon and Villarreal fight it out for the other spot.
So we’re looking for one player on the market. Probably a righty, but I’m okay with a lefty if he can handle righties well enough.
Two guys who intrigue me a little are Brett Myers and Jason Frasor. Neither is a flashy name, but both could be useful adds like Dotel was a year ago. Myers has experience in the 8th and 9th innings and in the rotation, and Frasor’s strikeout numbers are interesting.
Both of these guys could be flexible in the pen and that’s exactly what the Tigers need as they head into 2013 without defined roles. I’m also against spending big in the relief market because even the very best are replaceable.
This staff, with the right management, could easily repeat as one of the top ones in the league in 2013.
Building the 2013 Tigers: Position Players
With the offseason still in its infancy and only the most minor moves behind us, it’s time to start thinking about how the Tigers should approach the next couple of months in preparation for the 2013 season.
Let’s start with who we know will be back on the 2013 team.
Position Players
Avila ( C ), Fielder (1B), Infante (2B), Peralta (SS), Cabrera (3B), Jackson (CF), and Martinez (DH) all have starting roles locked up assuming they stay healthy this offseason. Dirks (OF) will certainly be on the club, but his role is somewhat unclear. He’ll either be a starting corner outfielder, platoon outfielder, or bench player.
That locks up eight of the 13 expected position player slots with LF, RF, backup catcher, backup infielder, backup outfielder essentially filling out the remaining spots.
Let’s start with the easy part. The Tigers should, and will, either resign Gerald Laird or go with Bryan Holaday as Avila’s backup. If Laird wants to come back, he’ll be back, if he wants more playing time, the team will go with Holaday.
The backup infield slot should be pretty cut and dry as well. I expect that it’s a fight between Santiago and Worth. Santiago really struggled in 2012 and Worth is a better defense player and is younger. But Santiago is on a major league deal, so cutting the $2 million might not be in the plans. I’d take Worth, but because I think he’s better, but I can’t fault them if they stay with Santiago and shuttle Worth to Toledo again.
The outfield is where this gets interesting. Several in-organization candidates emerge for roster spots. Dirks will obviously get one of the four spots for outfielders. After him, the Tigers have Brennan Boesch, Quintin Berry, Avisail Garcia, Nick Castellanos, Ryan Raburn, and Don Kelly.
You can put together an outfielder from that group and Dirks, but you probably should add one more piece. Dirks in LF and adding a new RF through Free Agency or trade is probably the best option for the club. Garcia and Castellanos need more time in the minors and putting them on the opening day roster is probably a poor choice. They should be ready by late 2013 or early 2014 and it’s wrong to rush them instead of paying for a Free Agent.
Let’s give the LF job to Dirks and see RF help from outside. If we do that, we need to pick two bench guys. I would like to see it be Raburn and Kelly, although I think Boesch and Berry or Boesch and another Free Agent are more likely.
Here’s why I’d advocate for Raburn and Kelly, although I know most people won’t. Kelly brings great flexibility positionally, which is what I value in a 25th man. He can fill in at 1B and 3B late in blowouts and on the rare off day for the big guys. He’s also the best defender of the bunch (other than Garcia, but I’ve already sent him to Toledo). I like Raburn because he has shown the ability to go on tears and I’d like to give him one more shot at it.
To me, Berry is a pinch runner and I’m not interested in using a roster spot on someone who isn’t a useful defensive replacement or pinch hitter. Boesch is hard to read because he’s streaky, but he doesn’t add value to my version of the team because he isn’t a defensive replacement and isn’t much of a pinch hitter.
Kelly fits as a defender and Raburn fits as a righty to balance out Dirks if you need it. Both spots are of low importance because we shouldn’t need as many ABs from them with Martinez back. You can stash Berry and Boesch in AAA, but you can’t hide Raburn and Kelly. Keep them on the club and part ways when Garcia and Castellanos are ready.
So that leaves us with an outfield target. I’ve been clear in previous posts that Torii Hunter is the ideal fit for this team. He can play RF at a high level, had a good year at the plate, and can be a mentor to Austin Jackson. He’d fit perfectly at 2, 5, or 6 in the lineup depending on how you want to play it and he’s older, so you don’t need to offer him a lot of years.
A two year deal in the Beltran range would work, or even a little more AAV to make sure he signs. If we do that, my proposed lineup and bench looks like this:
Jackson CF
Hunter RF
Cabrera 3B
Fielder 1B
Martinez DH
Dirks LF
Peralta SS
Avila C
Infante 2B
Bench: Laird/ Holaday C, Santiago/Worth INF, Raburn OF, Kelly UTIL
Waiting: Boesch, Berry, Garcia, Castellanos
I like how that looks a lot. Your outfield defense is dramatically better than it was for most of 2012, which will help out the pitchers a lot.
An intriguing backup to Hunter is Melky Cabrera if you can buy low on him. Shane Victorino is another option. If I’m the Tigers, I don’t want to pay for someone like BJ Upton or Josh Hamilton because I have OF talent coming and I have a lot of payroll tied up in my stars already. I’m looking for a 2 year, $24-30 million corner outfielder to bridge the gap to 2014-2015.
With the position players set, we’ll tackle the pitching staff early next week. Sound off in the comments section or post questions/suggestions of other targets you’d like to see and I’ll try to get a mailbag column going.
2012 Awards Series: Recap
This week SABR Toothed Tigers handed out our year end awards for Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, and MVP in each league.
Here’s a quick recap.
AL ROY: Mike Trout
NL ROY: Wade Miley
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
NL Cy Young: R.A. Dickey
AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Ryan Braun
The BBWAA hands out their versions on the same awards starting Monday, so here’s what I expect to happen:
AL ROY: Mike Trout
NL ROY: Bryce Harper
AL Cy Young: David Price
NL Cy Young: R.A. Dickey
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
NL MVP: Buster Posey
The BBWAA has made some really terrible choices in the past, so don’t expect them to get it right. Remember when Neftali Feliz beat Austin Jackson for ROY in 2010 despite playing like 1150 fewer innings?
You can find full articles on every award by clicking the 2012 Recaps tab at the top of the page.
2012 Awards Series: AL MVP
Preseason Prediction: Evan Longoria (3B –TB)
I won’t spend much time defending this one, except to say that Evan Longoria is an elite baseball player who played less than half his team’s games this season. He posted a 2.4 WAR and was limited on defense by injury even when he was in the lineup, so I don’t feel bad about my pick. Players get hurt.
He’s one of the best in the game and is just 27 years old. I’ll probably pick him again next year (I picked him in 2010 too).
And the award goes to…
So this is a pretty controversial topic among baseball people, writers, and fans. It really shouldn’t be, but it is. I’ll be upfront and clear throughout this whole thing.
1) I am a giant Tigers fan (see: name of this website)
2) Mike Trout should win the MVP award.
A couple of notes to start. First, I do not believe that the performance of your team should factor in to voting at all. Neither Trout nor Cabrera is responsible for the other 24 guys on his team. You can’t fault or reward someone for the play of others in this type of award.
Two, if I cared about that, Trout still wins. Trout’s team won more games in a better division than Cabrera’s. You cannot tell me that Cabrera’s team winning 88 games in a worse division makes him the MVP over Trout because the Angels won 89 games and did so in against superior competition.
Third, the Triple Crown (leading the league in AVG/HR/RBI) is cool, but it is not a reason to vote for Cabrera. Let’s consider a theoretical example to make this clear:
Player A: .330, 45 HR, 150 RBI.
Player B: .329, 44 HR, 149 RBI.
In this example, Player A wins the Triple Crown narrowly in every category.
Player C: .365, 50 HR, 150 RBI
Player D: .320, 31 HR, 151 RBI
In this example, Player C does not win the Triple Crown.
Clearly, Player A and Player B are essentially the same player by these three statistics. Player C (who didn’t win the Crown) is clearly a superior player to Player D. Therefore, winning the Triple Crown is not a sufficient reason to be MVP, even if RBI wasn’t a terrible stat.
But none of those arguments explain why Trout is the MVP, they simply explain why certain arguments for Cabrera are invalid. Now let’s make the case for Trout.
Let’s start with Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Trout had a lot more. 10.0 to 7.1. If you trust WAR, this discussion is over, but if you’re still supporting Cabrera, I’ll go on. WAR, as we talked about a couple weeks ago, is essentially trying to measure offense, defense, and baserunning in one single number. You may not agree with its formula, but you can’t disagree with its logic. WAR measures value.
So let’s break down each component of these two players. Baserunning first because it’s easy. The advanced stats favor Trout in a big way. Trout stole 45 more bases. Every single scout, evaluator, and human being I’ve talked to says Trout is better on the bases than Cabrera. Point for Trout (we’ll talk how to weight these later).
Now let’s talk defense. Trout is better. UZR gives Trout an 11.4 to -10.0 advantage. In laymen’s terms, we’re talking about a 2.0 WAR difference just with the gloves. This stands up to the eye test.
Trout is an elite defender who made a ton of great plays this season and he did so at one of the most critical defensive positions on the field. Cabrera’s numbers on defense do not look great, but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because I watched him play every day. Cabrera is better than a lot of his critics say, but he’s not great. If we agree he’s league average, he’s still well behind Trout and I think that is generous. Point Trout.
So let’s review by putting up a simple theoretical formula.
Value = O + D + B
If Trout wins a category, we make the value positive, if Cabrera wins it, we make it negative. If the final value is greater than 0, Trout is MVP. If it’s less than 0, Cabrera is. Simple.
So right now we have
Value = O + D(positive) + B(positive)
In order for Cabrera to be MVP, his value on offense has to exceed Trout’s by more than the sum of Trout’s Defense and Baserunning lead.
Let’s go stat by stat. Cabrera his 44 HR, Trout hit 30. Trout scored 129 runs, Cabrera 120. Cabrera drove in 139, Trout 89. Let’s dispense with RBI because that is a function of where you hit in the order. Trout hit first, so 20-25% of his ABs come with no one on base and the rest come with poor hitters ahead of him. Cabrera gets to hit with Austin Jackson ahead of him a lot. Cabrera had 119 more plate appearances with men on base than Trout in 2012 and while he hit for a higher average in those situations, he had a lower average with the bases empty where Trout topped him by around 80 PAs.
Runs work the same way in Trout’s favor, so I’ll dump those too. Let’s head for the slash lines.
Trout: .326/.399/.564
Cabrera: .330/.393/.606
You might notice Cabrera’s batting average is higher, but Trout more than makes up for it by walking more to lead to a higher OBP for Trout. Trout gets on base more. Cabrera does out slug him, however.
But here’s a key point. If we factor in their stolen bases (because singling and stealing second is virtually the same as doubling as far as SLG is concerned), Trout jumps to .651 over Cabrera’s .612
So far, Trout trails in homeruns, but leads in OBP and passes him in SLG if we allow Trout’s legs to play a role (I’ll even discount baserunning entirely from the final decision if we just factor in SB here).
So what we have here is a picture of Miguel Cabrera being less valuable than Trout on offense. Even if we concede that they are the same, which I would be willing to do for the sake of argument, Trout’s defensive value gives him the award.
Let’s look at wOBA for a minute, which is offense without the SB factor I just included. Cabrera .417, Trout .409. By wRC+, tied at 166. Make all the arguments you want, I can’t see any reasoning that tells me Cabrera is enough better on offense to discount Trout’s sizable defensive advantage.
To make that case, you would have to A) Value Defense so little that it is not even worth having one B) Make the case that Cabrera was more valuable on offense (which I’m not sure you can, certainly not by a lot)
Let’s revisit the equation:
Value = O + D + B
If all three are positive, Trout wins. The only way Cabrera can win is if O is more negative than the sum of D and B. I would argue that O is positive, so this is all moot, but even if you find a way to make O negative, it’s not by much.
Trout is the MVP.
Two final things. One, you could say that Trout missed April and should lose points for that. I would tell you that’s true, except that he still led Cabrera by 2.9 WAR (which factors in how much you play). Two, there is one way to argue for Cabrera.
To make the case for Cabrera, you have to make the case that while he wasn’t worth more on the field, he was worth more in the clubhouse. You could say that Cabrera made his teammates better by being around him and therefore is worth more than Trout because Trout did not do that. That is logically consistent, but I don’t believe it to be true. If you could show me evidence, or even circumstantial conjecture in that direction, I would consider it.
I don’t like that this debate became about stat geeks and purists. We aren’t watching a different game. Stat heads are just willing to look at more stats than AVG/HR/RBI/R/SB because there is more information out there. Those stats should not be the holy grail because they miss so much. Walks matter. Defense matters.
Cabrera had a great year, Trout had a better one.
Full Ballot
10. Josh Hamilton (OF – TEX)
9. Ben Zobrist (All 9 Positions – TB)
8. Joe Mauer (C – MIN)
7. Felix Hernandez (SP – SEA)
6. Austin Jackson (OF – DET)
5. Justin Verlander (SP – DET)
4. Adrian Beltre (3B – TEX)
3. Robinson Cano (2B- NYY)
2. Cabrera (3B –DET)
1. Trout (OF – LAA)
Is Now the Time to Trade Justin Upton?
So the pundit echo chamber buzz of the week is about the Diamondbacks listening to offers on Justin Upton, their 25 year old RF coming off a down season. You may remember him from such posts as, “I Thought He Would Win MVP this season.”
Needless to say, I saw a good deal of potential in Upton entering this season and haven’t lost a ton of faith in him after a meh 2012.
But should the Diamondbacks trade him?
As always, it depends. If someone makes a really good offer, you should always take it, but if we’re talking about reasonable offers, I would argue it depends a lot on what players you get back.
That sounds like a stupid answer, but I mean it in a very specific way. You should trade Upton now if you’re getting back big league players. For example, Dave Cameron at Fangraphs evaluated an Upton for Andrus deal. That’s a deal you take.
But if it’s for prospects, I’m waiting.
But not because I’m someone who wants to see proven talent and all that, I’m waiting because this is the wrong time to trade Upton. His value is never going to be lower. He’s coming off a down season that followed a great year. You’re selling low on your most valuable asset if you deal him now.
That’s a fine strategy if the deal you want won’t be available during the season. The Rangers won’t deal Andrus or other big league pieces in July. So if you want an MLB level guy, pull the trigger.
If you want a massive prospect haul, wait. Those guys will be available in July because the team you’re dealing with won’t have to subtract from the big league team to get Upton, and they’ll be more desperate. The options will be more limited.
There are 3-5 OF on the market right now who can be as good as Upton in the short run. At the 2013 deadline, that number should be much lower.
Hold on to Justin Upton because he’s either going to help you contend in 2013 or bring you a bigger return than dealing him now.
Tigers Perspective: Lots of people are asking if the Tigers should target Upton, but I can’t see them doing it. I don’t know for sure what Arizona is asking for, but I think you’re talking about Castellanos, Smyly, and more. That’s a high price to pay for a player coming off a down season. The Tigers have a loaded 3-4-5 combo for the next two seasons and a solid leadoff man. They need depth more than they need star power. Pass.
2012 Awards Series: NL MVP
Preseason Prediction: Justin Upton (OF – ARZ)
So this was a bad one. Upton’s 2.5 WAR didn’t even crack the Top 30 in the NL. Don’t get me wrong, .280/.355/.430 is a solid big league season, it’s just nowhere near MVP levels. The talent is there to win an MVP for Upton, but there’s a lot swirling around him at this point in Arizona, so I’m not sure we’ll even see that freakish peak potential that allowed him to go #1 overall in 2005.
And the award goes to…
I think you could make a case for six players. That’s a large MVP group. Buster Posey (8.0), Ryan Braun (7.9), and David Wright (7.8) are virtually indistinguishable by WAR. I’d also include Chase Headley (7.5), Andrew McCutchen (7.4), and Yadier Molina (6.5).
I’d have a hard time arguing against any of those six. Here’s the quick case for each.
Posey led in WAR, OBP, wRC+, and played good defense at a premium position for a really good team.
Braun was a very close 2nd in WAR, tied in wRC+, led in SLG, wOBA, hit 41 bombs, stole 30 bases, and did it under intense steroid scrutiny.
Wright was a little worse on offense than those two, but made up for it with what UZR called a great season on defense to bring his WAR in line with the leaders. It can’t be ignored that Wright did this on a team much less talented than most of his rivals.
Headley is a fun one because he put up great offensive numbers at Petco Park and only missed one game all season. 31 homeruns and 17 steals from the Padres 3B to go along with solid defense. The park holds him back a little on the more conventional side and he’ll lose votes because his team wasn’t great, but Headley should be in this conversation.
McCutchen almost singlehandedly made the Pirates relevant in 2012 and came in 3rd in wRC+. The defensive metrics hate him on defense, which puzzles me a little, so his overall WAR is a little depressed, and in a race this close I’m not sure how to judge it.
Finally, Molina put up phenomenal offensive numbers for a catcher (really for anyone) and continued to be one of the most imposing defenders in the game. The 6.5 WAR isn’t quite on par with the rest of the bunch, but he loses some value because he only players 140 games a year as a catcher.
You can dive into all the statistical details yourselves because there are really too many players to really evaluate in this space, so I’ll give you my take in a crowded field.
I’m hearing from most people in the mainstream media and a lot of more insider types that Posey is likely to run away with this because of his second half surge to lead a good team to the playoffs. That’ll push him over for most voters.
I’m going to take Braun. It’s essentially a tie from any sort of statistical measure, so you have to make a value judgment based on less than objective criteria. All of these guys deserve it, but I’m voting for Braun because he deserves it after his name was tarnished by a faulty drug test last fall.
Braun tested positive for elevated testosterone, but the testing procedure was breached and he won the appeal. However, just the association has put Braun on trial with the public and I’m impressed at how he had another great season even after he “got caught” using steroids.
I don’t buy into the argument that you have to be on a playoff team to win MVP, so that isn’t in my calculus. Braun had a great year and did so while under a microscope than the others weren’t. Granted, points gets to Posey for coming back from the brutal ankle injury and lots of love for Wright, Headley, McCutchen, and Molina as well, but I’m behind Braun.
Full Ballot:
10. Jayson Heyward (OF – ATL)
9. Aaron Hill (2B – ARZ)
8. Clayton Kershaw (SP – LAD)
7. R.A. Dickey (SP – NYM)
6. Headley (3B – SD)
5. Molina (C – STL)
4. Wright (3B – NYM)
3. McCutchen (OF – PIT)
2. Posey (C – SF)
1. Braun (OF – MIL)
New English D 