Nationals Add Haren, Improve on Team that Won Many Games
Updated 5:20pm: Great move for the Nationals who now have Haren behind Strasburg, Zimmerman, and Gonzalez. That’s a pretty good rotation and they were top five last year with Edwin Jackson instead of Haren. All one year deals are good risks and even if Haren’s medicals are in question, this deal should pay off.
1:48pm:The Nationals have signed Dan Haren to a 1 year, $13 million deal pending a physical. More to come.
Giants sign Pagan to Four Year Deal
Updated (5:24pm): I like the annual value of the contract for the Giants as Pagan has produced two 4+ win seasons in the last 3 seasons and three 2,9+ win seasons in the last four. He’s a good bet to be worth $10 million next season, so the only concern for me is if he’s going to be that guy four years from now. He’s only 31, so I don’t think he’ll drop off in a big way, but it’s hard to say for sure.
The Giants have money to spend after two World Series runs in the last three seasons and this isn’t a bad way to spend it. The commitment is a little long, but that’s the cost of doing business in today’s game. B.J. Upton got 5/75 to only be a little better and a little younger.
4:46pm: The Giants have signed OF Angel Pagan to a 4 year, $40 million deal.
News from Nashville: Winter Meetings Buzz (Monday)
The news of the day from Nashville comes in many parts, but these are the three that caught my eye.
Red Sox sign C/1B/DH Mike Napoli, 3 years, $39 million
The Sox needed someone to play first base and hit for power after they traded away most of their team to the Dodgers in August and Napoli qualifies. I think a lot of this deal comes from his awesome but lucky 2011 rather than his pretty good 2012. Napoli can certainly be a useful hitter in 2013 and beyond but there’s no way he can provide a lot of value on defense.
He’s a DH who won’t embarrass himself at 1B and can catch on occasion. The Sox already have David Ortiz at DH and have a lot of options at catcher, so Napoli figures to be the starting first baseman. They probably should have gone with LaRoche here, but the deal isn’t too big to turn me off. Grade: B-
Anibal Sanchez is asking for 6 years and $90 million
A couple of things to note here. First, a rumor went around that the Tigers offered 4/48 and Sanchez was insulted. Jason Beck of MLB.com says that the rumor is inaccurate, so maybe this isn’t a thing.
The other thing to note here is that a former The Guy Show personality and I had this exchange over the Sanchez news (edited for emphasis):
Him: No way I’m paying Sanchez $90m and no way I give anyone six years!
Me: If you don’t want to sign six year deals, you will never sign big time free agents.
Him: For that money I would want Greinke.
Me: Greinke will sign for many millions more than that.
Him: I would do 6/110.
Me: Then he will sign with the Dodgers and not you.
What we can learn from this exchange is twofold. One, the Tigers won’t sign Sanchez because he wants #2 starter money. The Tigers have two #2 starters already and don’t need a third. Other teams need #2 starters a lot more, and will in turn, pay more for them. Two, Sanchez is not asking for too much. Six years is always risky, but $15 million a season is a fair price if you’re confident in his ability to stay healthy relative to other pitchers.
Salaries are bigger now than they used to be. Teams are paying $5 million per WAR right now and the new TV money is going to bump that up to closer to $7 million per WAR in the near future. Sanchez is worth 3.0 WAR, so this is not an overpay.
R.A. Dickey Trade Talk
Lots of buzz around the Mets dealing Dickey and the Royals and Rangers seem interested. Hard to tell how much of this is media driven speculation and how much is actually happening.
I’m undecided about this move because I think the Mets aren’t that far away and could contend by 2014 if they play things right. Dickey seems willing to sign and extension if it’s a fair deal and knuckleballers age well. If they buy his ability to actually replicate the last two seasons, they should keep him. If they think he’s a flash in the pan, they should move him.
Also! Big news! A-Rod needs surgery and will be out until May or June. I’m sure you are very surprised because none of the national media is covering this story!
Previewing the Winter Meetings
Baseball’s Winter Meetings kick off this week in the annual “Now is About the Time We Start Doing Things” portion of most GMs’ job. As the week goes on, we should start to get a sense of where the bigger free agents might end up and we might see a trade or two as well.
Here are five things to watch at this year’s meetings:
1) Centerfield
Josh Hamilton, Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan, Shane Victorino. Four centerfielders last season who are looking for new teams and somewhere between 2 and 4 of them will get jobs as centerfielders. Bourn and Pagan certainly, with Hamilton and Victorino potentially moving to a corner.
The market here is interesting because the players are all looking for very different contracts and are very different style players, but they are actually probably all worth about the same on the field. Hamilton provides power, Bourn provides speed on offense and defense, Pagan plays good defense and gets on base, and Victorino does everything kind of well.
It will be very interesting to see who takes the plunge on Hamilton, how much Bourn gets, who sees Pagan as the safe bet, and who thinks Victorino will bounce back. This part of the market is deep in a strange way.
2) Zach Greinke
Greinke is easily the top free agent on the market in my book and he should become a very rich man in the next couple weeks if he doesn’t fall down a flight of stairs while simultaneously tearing his UCL.
Earlier this offseason I wrote that the Dodgers and the Angels were the most likely suitors for Greinke, but there is some talk that the Angels might not be as in control of this as we thought a month ago.
The Dodgers can give Greinke the team credit card and he could really shine in the big park, light hitting NL West. Yet the Angels need him desperately and currently have a pitching staff that more closely resembles the Cubs than the Phillies. Last year, a lot of mystery teams jumped in on big rf mystery teams tly have a pitching staff that more closely resembles the Cubs than the Phillies. Yet the Angefree agents, so keep an eye out for that again.
We’re watching Greinke because of his value, but also because everyone will wait for him to sign to go forward with starting pitching plans. His market will set the market for other pitcher and teams that needed Greinke will turn up the heat on other options.
3) Relievers
I won’t say much here other than that Brandon League and Jonathan Broxton got three year deals in excess of $20 million to pitch 60 innings a season. The relief market is off the rails and we’ll see where it goes from here. How much does Soriano want if this is what his inferior competition is making?
Fans and teams dramatically overvalue individual relievers and I’ll be watching how this plays out in Nashville this week.
4) Good Players that Don’t Fit
There are a few players on the free agent market who might be in odd situations because their current club doesn’t really have a place for them anymore. Adam LaRoche might have just been pushed out in Washington with Span coming over. The Tigers can’t afford Anibal Sanchez. The Yankees don’t want Nick Swisher. There’s no room at the inn in LA for Victorino.
It will be interesting to watch how this market plays out given that a lot of very useful players won’t be able to turn around and resign with their previous clubs. They might be undervalued, but they could still get overpaid. It’s really hard to tell how all of the new money will change the game and how a weak top of the market plays with a deep middle of the market.
5) TRADES?
Everyone seems to love trades and trade scenarios. Justin Upton? Giancarlo Stanton? Wil Myers? R.A. Dickey? Could these guys be traded?!
The Winter Meetings will give teams a chance to really gauge both the free agent and trade markets as they look to improve their clubs for 2013. If another big trade is going to happen this offseason, it’ll come in the next few days.
There’s a lot to watch next week as the offseason gets into full swing, so check with STT every day for complete coverage.
The Book on Andy Dirks
What People Think:
Andy Dirks is the subject of some debate among people familiar with the Tigers. Some think he can stick as an everyday outfielder and some think he’s destined to be a solid fourth outfielder and left-handed bat off the bench.
Jim Leyland likes to say he’s “just a ballplayer” and that’s not a bad description, even if it’s a massive cliché. He’s got all five tools, but none of them are flashy or elite level. Dombrowski said after the 2012 season that Dirks may or not be an everyday outfielder, which just about sums up the line Andy Dirks walks.
What the Numbers Say:
Over the course of two major league seasons, Dirks has registered about one full season of plate appearances. His career line is .293/.340/.454, which is absolutely everyday player worthy. He has 14 HR, 10 SB, and only strikes out 14.6% of the time. The metrics don’t love his defense, but the sample size isn’t big enough to really buy into those numbers just yet.
The minor league numbers seem to indicate that these big league numbers are replicable and the soon to be 27 year old Dirks can contribute for the Tigers for years to come.
What My Eyes Tell Me:
I’m a big believer in Dirks. I think he does the little things very well like playing the ball off the wall in the outfield and making good decisions on the basepaths. He has a solid OBP and puts the ball in play.
Most of that value at the plate comes from his willingness not to over-swing in search of homerun glory. Dirks benefits from hitting line drives toward the gaps and runs well enough to extract a little bit of value on the bases.
On defense, like I said earlier, I think Dirks does a lot of little things well. He has enough speed and arm strength to be a solid corner outfielder and his ability to be in the right place at the right time makes him good enough to stick. He’s probably an above average left fielder and an average right fielder long term.
Dirks hits well enough and plays defense well enough in my book to make him a big league regular and I could easily see a full season of at bats and good health resulting in 3.0 WAR next season if the Tigers give him that shot.
The Dotted Line:
Dirks has less than two seasons of big league services so he won’t even be arbitration eligible until after the 2014 season. It’s way too early to worry about Dirks’ contract status and he should make his role more clear by the time it’s time to talk turkey.
Fantasy-Land:
Fantasy baseball players should be wary of Dirks because he may end up as a platoon or bench guy, so he won’t get enough ABs to help you. Additionally, if he does get a lot of starts this year, it will be near the bottom of the lineup, so runs might be harder to come by. He’ll help you in AVG, but HR, R, RBI, and SB will really depend on how much he plays. Even if he does get a full season of ABs, he still won’t wow you in a lot of categories.
The Lead:
Dirks is a really useful player. At worst, he’s a really solid fourth outfielder and at best he’s a solid MLB regular. Dirks can put up a really good slash line and solid defensive work and should be helpful to the Tigers in some capacity.
He’ll head into 2013 with a big league roster spot locked up and will have a shot to earn a spot in the starting lineup with a good spring.
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