How Was The Game? (May 23, 2014)
A recovery.
Tigers 7, Rangers 2
Anibal Sanchez (7 GS, 35 IP, 2.83 ERA, 2.44 FIP, 1.1 fWAR) was on tonight. He had a brief scare in the second in which he allowed a pair of runs, but after that it was a complete domination. He went 7 innings, allowed five hits, no walks, and struck out five while carving up hitter after hitter with a nice mix of fastballs, changeups, sliders, and curves and found more and more velocity as the game wore on. The offense carried on as they have over the last few days, scoring seven runs in part on home runs from Jackson and Romine (!) and a bunch of doubles from Kinsler. The mix of Sanchez being Sanchez and the offense scoring early and often made this one a lot smoother than the last four games, which had been, politely, excruciating. The Tigers will look to secure no worse than a split on Saturday with the great Rick Porcello (8 GS, 52 ⅔ IP, 2.91 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 1.3 fWAR) on the mound.
The Moment: Romine’s first career home run just clears the fence in right.
How Was The Game? (May 22, 2014)
Worth it.
Rangers 9, Tigers 2
Do I have to? Fine. This was a rough one. Robbie Ray (3 GS, 15.1 IP, 4.11 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 0.2 fWAR) looked fine in the first and it got ugly in a hurry from the second inning on. He pitched into the 4th, allowing 7 runs, and didn’t fool anybody. Ray has a solid future, but he ran into his first real challenge (a team that hits lefties well) and they knocked him around. The Tigers bats had some early chances but BABIP’d their way out of them until the 6th inning when they started to chip away. It was Darvish, so you can’t be too upset about that, but you’d have preferred a competitive contest. The real note in this one was that Coke pitched despite his heavy workload in an effort to save the pen and Smyly came in to throw between starts and did the same. The big one? Danny Worth came in for the 9th inning and struck out two batters throwing knuckleballs. He got five whiffs and touched 89 on the heater. It was awesome. Anibal Sanchez (6 GS, 28 IP, 2.89 ERA, 2.64 FIP, 0.8 fWAR) goes on Friday.
The Moment: Danny Worth pitches!
via Grant Brisbee at SBN.
Yes, Alex Avila Is A Good Hitter
Many people seem to think Alex Avila is a poor hitter. This isn’t a few crazies, it’s a meaningful contingent of people. They’re wrong. I’m always open to the idea of being incorrect. I make it a person goal. You always have to be willing to come across evidence to the contrary, but given the evidence available to the general public at this point in time, you can’t build an argument that Alex Avila is performing poorly this year. You may be able to craft an argument that says he’s not going to be good for very long, but he’s awesome right now during this very season.
But Avila is hitting .245! That seems bad!
It’s not, and it also doesn’t matter, almost at all. The league average position player’s batting average is .255. The league average catcher’s batting average is .254. At worst, Avila is 9 or 10 points worse than the average player or average player at his position.
But Avila strikes out all the freaking time!
He is striking out a lot this season. 33.9% of the time! But that’s okay. Strikeouts aren’t good, but they aren’t the devil. This is a point against him, but there’s more to baseball than strikeouts!
Alright, smart guy, what’s so good about Alex Avila’s bat?
Glad you asked! Thanks for being open minded. Alex Avila has a 15.3% walk rate. The average catcher walks 8.3% of the time. Avila doesn’t always get hits, but walking is almost as good as a single. It’s not quite as good because sometimes runners can advance an extra base on a single, but who are you kidding, Avila hits behind Martinez and Castellanos most of the time, so it’s only Austin Jackson and he’s not always on base. That 15.3% walk rate takes that slightly below average batting average to a super great OBP! His OBP this year is .368. The average catcher’s OBP is .322. That’s a huge gap. Avila gets on base 4.6% more of the time than the average player at his position. That’s great! Of players with 80 PA at catcher this year, Avila’s OBP is 9th. And 4-9 are all really close, too. He’s a good defensive catcher who gets on base way more than average. And getting on base is good!
Take it a step further, he’s slugging too! His slugging percentage is .449 and the average catcher slugs .398. That’s a huge gap. Throw those bad boys together and his .364 wOBA is quite a bit better than the .319 wOBA the average catcher offers (129 wRC+ to 100 wRC+). That 129 wRC+ is also the third best mark on the Tigers. It’s VMart, Cabrera, and then Avila. Avila.
There are two things about Avila’s offensive game that seem bad, but batting average 1) has been declining league-wide for years and you need to lower your expectations and 2) is a really bad stat to care about because it’s leaving out tons of useful information. The other thing, striking out, isn’t good, but it’s not hurting him. This isn’t 2011 Avila, but this is a really good player. He might get hurt and miss a bunch of time or stop being able to hit because his knee falls off, but so far this season, he’s killing it.
#TeamAvila
Why I’ll Cheer For Prince
I know this is a raw topic and people have a lot of strong opinions on the matter. This isn’t a lecture and if it sounds like one it’s a failure of the pen and not of the heart. But a lot of people are fired up to boo Prince Fielder. I’m not one of them. This is probably all academic because Prince might miss the series with an injury and because I don’t actually “live close to Michigan,” but I wanted to tell you why I don’t harbor any resentment toward Prince.
Prince didn’t have a good season by his standards in 2013. Some of it was bad fortune early, some of it was distraction late. He was bad in the postseason. He made a really costly baserunning mistake. And a defensive one. He didn’t perform at a level you would expect of someone who makes what he makes. Compared to the player he was in 2012 and the player we think he should have been, he sucked, I won’t argue otherwise.
But I won’t boo him for that. He didn’t want to play poorly, I’m sure. You can argue that he checked out (we’ll get to that), but he wasn’t playing poorly on purpose. It’s not like he intentionally threw the season. It’s the same reason I never booed Inge, Raburn, etc. It’s why I wouldn’t boo Romine or Coke, even though they’re both in way, way over their heads. Baseball is hard.
I’ll never boo anyone based on performance, period. I think it’s wrong. It sends the wrong message, and I don’t care if you’re doing it to show management you want them on the bench. It says your love (or fanhood, whatever) is condition and I don’t think it should be. And I’ve never heard of a player getting better because their fans booed them. As if they don’t know they were failing.
Do I think Prince gave his best effort last year? I’m not sure. I won’t argue if you think he was checked out or a little distracted. That’s fine. But he was distracted for a very good reason. His marriage was ending. His family was being torn apart. His family is more important than baseball. His family might not be more important than baseball to you, but it’s more important to him. And it should be. Some people are good at putting that kind of thing out of their mind. Some people are good at channeling that trauma. Some people crumble. And that’s okay. I don’t think it’s fair to expect a person to perform at their best when they’re going through something like that. Some people can do it, but not everyone can. If my wife left me (love ya. honey!), I would be a pathetic shell of a person. You’d have to convince me to eat, much less produce anything worthwhile at my job.
I don’t think he played poorly because he wasn’t trying, I think he played poorly because he was depressed. I’m not qualified to diagnose a person I’ve never met, or really a person I’ve met, but I know a decent amount about mental health and Prince seemed to exhibit behaviors of someone going through depression. And depression would be a normal response to the end of a marriage. People who have gone through depression can tell you, the entire world is full of stuff you used to love but no longer do anymore. Things that used to provide enjoyment all of a sudden seem pointless and difficult. That’s how I perceived what was going on with Prince.
And that’s how I perceived his “it’s over bro” comments. To fans who just had their season end, it sounded like someone who didn’t care about them. To me, it actually sounded like a guy who wasn’t enjoying his life at all. He didn’t care because he had just had the worst month of his professional life at the end of the worst year (I’m assuming) of his personal life. He wanted to go home and see his kids. And that’s okay with me.
Pro athletes are asked to be superhuman physically. Most people want them to be superhuman in every other way, but they just aren’t. Prince never had the verbal grace of Curtis Granderson and he had just screwed up royally on the biggest stage. Forgive him for giving a few bad quotes.
Don’t get me wrong, I understand why people are unhappy with him. And I think it was a good baseball trade and probably a good trade for everyone involved. Kurt Mensching likened it to a breakup that both parties needed. That’s a good way to put it. I think it was probably good that Prince got traded, but I harbor zero ill will toward him.
Baseball is his job, not his life. My job isn’t my life, I don’t expect anything more of anyone else. Prince doesn’t seem like a bad guy. He didn’t do anything to me. He didn’t hurt anybody. He had a bad year. To borrow his words, it’s over bro. Miguel Cabrera got drunk and got into an altercation with his wife during a pivotal series in 2009. Probably cost the Tigers a trip to the playoffs. He’s beloved. He got into a car in 2011 with a blood alcohol level of .24. He put lives in danger. He’s beloved. I don’t mean to trivialize the work Cabrera has done to right his wrongs, but he’s an honest to God criminal. The Tigers and Tigers fans embraced Cabrera as a family member in trouble. That’s how I feel about Prince.
He was hurting, at least that’s how I saw it. I could be wrong. I see the other side. But Prince was fun to watch and I enjoyed cheering for him as a Tiger. It didn’t work out, but I wish him the best. I’ll always cheer for Prince. He’s one of us, as far as I’m concerned. To me, it looks like he needs someone to have his back rather than tell him to take a hike. If I was in Detroit this weekend and he was too, I’d be on my feet showing my affection.
How Was The Game? (May 21, 2014)
Wild.
Indians 11, Tigers 10 (13 innings)
Being a writer, calling something indescribable is pretty bad practice. That is literally what I’m supposed to be doing here, describing things. So I’ll try, but just know that I wanted to just call this one a mess and move on. The Tigers jumped out to a four run lead before Max Scherzer (10 GS, 66 IP, 2.59 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 1.7 fWAR) even took the mound, and it took him all of two innings to give it back plus two. Then Victor Martinez and Lonnie Chisenhall traded home runs in the third. Then the Tigers got two in the 5th. Then the home plate umpire ejected Cabrera and Ausmus on a very quick hook. Scherzer was very bad and then pretty good. Of course, the game turned when the Indians botched a double play ball off the bat of Victor in the 8th, leading to two Tigers runs. JUST KIDDING, Joe Nathan allowed a game tying home run in the 9th and sent it to extras. The Tigers almost lost it in the 10th before Rajai Davis gunned down Chisenhall at the plate to extend it. Avila went yard in the top of the 13th, about 5 hours after this one got started, but even that wasn’t good enough as the Indians tied it in the bottom half of the inning and loaded the bases for Ryan Raburn. At which point there was a walk off balk. End of game. End of recap. They’ll head home for a four game set with the Rangers, turning first to Robbie Ray (2 GS, 12 IP, 0.75 ERA, 2.25 FIP, 0.4 fWAR) on Thursday.
The Moment: Rajai guns down Chisenhall trying to score in the 10th…or maybe Avila puts them ahead in the 13th!
How Was The Game? (May 20, 2014)
Better than the night the Pistons had, at least.
Indians 6, Tigers 2
Tuesday’s had two distinct story lines. The first was Justin Verlander’s (10 GS, 66 IP, 3.55 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 1.7 fWAR) rocky first trip through the order. It was bad. He allowed a run in the first on three singles and four runs in the second on four hits and a walk before settling in and getting through six innings. He was able to stop the bleeding, but the hole was already quite deep. The bats made an effort, getting a bomb each from Hunter and Avila, but failed to find an open space when they had men on base the rest of the way (Story line #2!). Double plays and good defense kept them from breaking through and Reed surrendered a home run to grow the deficit a touch more. After a great start to the road trip, the Tigers will need to win Wednesday behind Max Scherzer (9 GS, 59 IP, 1.83 ERA, 2.77 FIP, 1.6 fWAR) to avoid the sweep.
The Moment: Avila crushes one to left center field.
Why I’m Disappointed The Tigers Didn’t Sign Drew
Given the responses I’ve had on Twitter today, and in the past when I’ve discussed the topic, I figured I’d use more than 140 characters to explain my view. It’s moot, now that Stephen Drew is going back to Boston on a one year deal, but it’s worth putting a bow on.
The Tigers window is now. Cabrera is going to get worse. Verlander is going to get worse. Scherzer is probably leaving. This core is never going to be in a better position to win a title. You have a few franchise caliber players, plus other good players like Martinez, Jackson, Kinsler, Sanchez, and Porcello. You have Avila and Castellanos. The division isn’t good. The time to strike is now. They’ve won three straight divisions and came up short in October three times.
Iglesias is out for the year, almost certainly. Currently, the Tigers are playing Andrew Romine and Danny Worth. Collectively, Tigers shortstops have a 29 wRC+. That’s the worst offense from SS since 2002, at least. Bringing in Drew isn’t just a small upgrade over a below average player. Bringing in Drew installs a slightly above average shortstop in place of the worst shortstop tandem in baseball.
Over the course of the regular season, the Tigers probably don’t need Drew. They probably win the division without him. Probably. But this isn’t about winning a division title, it’s about fielding the best possible team in October. The postseason is a crapshoot, but the 1927 Yankees beat the 2009 Twins most of the time in a short series. The best team doesn’t always win, but you’d still rather be the better team.
Ideally, the Tigers probably would have preferred to hold down the fort until after the draft and get him for only the salary and not the draft pick. If they were going to give up the draft pick, they would have done it in March when they could have gotten Drew on the field for a full season.
So the choice was this:
- Sign Drew in March, $14 million/Draft Pick
- Sign Drew in June, $8 million
- Do something else
The variables are this:
- Salary
- Value of Draft Pick
- Drew’s value
- Replacement’s value
The salary is pretty well understood, so we don’t have to argue about that. The value of the pick is probably in the $7-10 million range. Drew is somewhere between 2.5 and 3 wins over a full season. Romine and Worth are probably 0.5 WAR if we’re being generous. So the Tigers are buying two wins for about $20 million in condition #1. In condition #2, you’re getting one win for $8 million. In condition #3, you’re getting 0.5 wins for $1 million. Obviously, #2 is the best option. You want his value during a half season and October for only a few million. The question is about paying the premium or doing nothing.
Of course going with the replacements is a better value, but not everything is about good value. I don’t care if the Tigers are getting the best bang for their buck. I care if they win more than the rest of the league and that the dollars they spend now don’t cost them and keep them from making upgrades in the future. You don’t win a title for having the best $/WAR. Having a good $/WAR helps you win a title. You can’t be a slave to every million.
Drew makes them better, period. Drew is more expensive than Romine/Worth, period. It’s a question of how much you care about the wins today compared to the wins you care about four years from now. I don’t know if the Tigers are going to be good four years from now, but I’m positive that they are good right now. The draft pick is an asset, but the draft pick isn’t a blue chip, can’t miss prospect. The average 23rd pick usually doesn’t have a big major league impact. Drew could push the Tigers over the top this year.
He’s a very good player and they are currently using very bad shortstops. It would be costly to upgrade, but the cost isn’t that crazy. You’re probably paying $9 to $10 million per win if you sign Drew, compared to the current league average of $6-7 million. So what? That improvement from Romine to Drew could be the difference between a championship and another October disappointment. We can’t predict the future very well, but I’d rather not play the A’s in the ALCS with an automatic out in the lineup just because we didn’t want to lose a draft pick.
Young players are important, but the Tigers don’t have an awesome history developing their own talent. Either the players fade or they trade them for big league talent. That’s what this is. You’re trading a prospect you’ve never met for an upgrade right now.
I understand the other side of the argument. You shouldn’t ignore the long term costs of your decisions. I just think this is a good time to weigh the present more heavily than the future. Maybe Suarez comes up and makes up the difference. Maybe they make a clever trade. Not trading for Drew isn’t a mistake in and of itself. The mistake would be to do nothing at all. I’m perfectly fine with trading a mid-level prospect for Jimmy Rollins. But you can’t play Romine for 450 at bats, and especially not in October. Drew was the easiest way to upgrade a position that needs to be upgraded. Now is the time to go for it.
How Was The Game? (May 19, 2014)
Pretty reasonable, considering the woke up in Boston.
Indians 5, Tigers 4
It wasn’t Drew Smyly’s (6 GS, 38.1 IP, 3.05 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 0.6 fWAR) night, but the runaway train had to come to a stop eventually. He labored his way through five innings of three run baseball in which he walked five and struck out six. Kluber gave up a bomb to VMart early, but looked like he was going to cruise to victory until the Tigers got to him for two runs in the 7th courtesy of hits by Castellanos, Avila, and Davis. While it looked like fate was on their side for their seventh straight win, Phil Coke, pitching in a critical situation due to the recent workload of the pen allowed a run in his second inning of work to allow the Indians to get back in control. That wouldn’t last long as JD Martinez swatted a pinch hit home run to tie it in the 9th but Brantley took Al-Al deep to end it in the 10th. The loss drops the Tigers to 27-13 at the 40 game mark, leaving the club looking to even the series Tuesday night with Justin Verlander (9 GS, 60 IP, 3.15 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 1.6 fWAR) on the mound.
The Moment: JD Martinez launches a pinch hit, game tying bomb in the 9th
One Quick Thing: Alburquerque’s Walk Rate Plummets!
This post isn’t going to require much context. It’s going to short and to the point because it doesn’t require a lot of fancy “words” to grab your attention. This is Al Alburquerque’s 2014 season in three graphs.
First, his walk rate by year.
Then, his walk rate with men on base.
Then his percentage of pitches in the zone with men on base, using the Baseball Savant classification. Note: Same pattern holds using other definitions of the zone.
Alburquerque hasn’t walked anyone with men on base this year! He’s throwing more strikes when he gets into trouble and it’s working. You’d much rather allow a batter to make contact than issue a walk and Al-Al is doing just that when he has men on base behind. Given how good his stuff is, challenging hitters is probably a good idea. You don’t have to be that cute when your slider moves like his does. With relievers it’s always small sample size, but this is at the pitch level, so it’s not useless. If he isn’t done posting walk rates in the 15% range, he’s going to be nails.
How Was The Game? (May 18, 2014)
A much cleaner sweep.
Tigers 6, Red Sox 2
Anibal Sanchez (6 GS, 28 IP, 2.89 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 0.8 fWAR) returned to the rotation on Sunday in Boston and allowed two runs in five innings as the Tigers cruised to another series sweep. The Tigers scored three in the 3rd on a Cabrera single and VMart bomb and then tacked on a few more on a Cabrera sac fly, Avila single, and Hunter bomb while they faced only one serious threat. In the 5th, the Sox loaded the bases but only scored one run before Sanchez escaped by fielding his position and firing a bullet to Kelly at third to complete the double play. The win pushes the Tigers to 27-12 on the young season and sets them up to go for the rare, perfect road trip with three in Cleveland this week. Drew Smyly (5 GS, 33.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 0.5 fWAR) will be first in line to get the ball on Monday night.
The Moment: Sanchez snares a liner and fires to Kelly to escape the 5th.
New English D 