It’s Time To Extend Victor Martinez
It’s amazing that just a year ago, people were ready to abandon Victor Martinez. On May 19, 2013 he was hitting .209/.269/.297. The Tigers were playing Miguel Cabrera out of position to accommodate Prince Fielder at first. They needed the DH slot to come open soon and Martinez did not seem to be himself after missing all of 2012 with an ACL tear.
A year later, Fielder is gone, Cabrera is back at first and Victor Martinez is the best hitter in the Tigers lineup. Go back to May 19, 2013 and bring it up through Sunday morning and Martinez is hitting .331/.382/.499. That’s a 138 wRC+ in 657 PA. And it’s only gotten better from there. Start from June 22, 2013 and it’s .352/.404/.534 with a 154 wRC+ in 532 PA. This season, in 159 PA, he’s hitting .336/.384/.587, good for a 158 wRC+. He’s having the best season of his career immediately after a torrid second half of 2013.
And unlike most early season leaders, Martinez isn’t doing it with a high BABIP (which could indicate luck). He’s at a cool .305, which is actually 10 points lower than his career average. He’s always been a good, consistent hitter. He’s been somewhere between 20 and 30 percent better than league average using wRC+ in almost every season of his career. Now he’s getting better and it’s time to lock him up.
Two things jump out about Martinez this year. First, he’s not striking out. His strikeout rate is down to 5.7%, which is easily the lowest of his career, while he’s running his highest walk rate as a Tiger. Martinez isn’t really swinging at fewer pitches, he’s simply making more and better contact. When you put the ball in the strikezone, he hits it, but he’s also been continuing a trend in which he’s also getting better at making good contact on pitches outside the zone. Pretty much, you can’t get the ball by him.
Second, Martinez is hitting for more power. He’s hit 9 HR so far this year and is on pace to shatter his career high of 25. He’s also running the best slugging percentage of his career by 82 points. And despite his two stolen bases, it’s not like he’s padding his slugging percentage by going to third on a few doubles.
Martinez is getting better when most hitters should be getting worse. He’s 35. But it’s also true that Martinez is getting better at two skills that age well: discipline and power. He’s not a better runner or fielder than he used to be, but he doesn’t have to be. I’m not really buying Martinez as a true talent 160 wRC+, but the fact that he’s been doing this for an entire calendar year suggests that whatever problem he had in early 2013 is gone. My personal take was that it was really bad luck, and the well hit ball data supports that. But even if it was an issue with his knee recovery, those problems can be put to rest.
He’s be 36 next year, so you probably want to avoid a 10 year deal, but a contract extension is in order. They should worry about keeping Porcello first and foremost, but the two aren’t mutually exclusive. The Tigers are currently paying Martinez $12 million a season, so a little bump up to $15 million probably works on a yearly basis. That kind of money will buy you a 2-3 win player on the free agent market, which is probably a fair projection for Martinez. Hitting like this, he’s a 4 win player at DH. Hitting like 2011 Martinez makes him a 2-3 win guy. On a short term deal, that’s a fine bet.
Two years at $15 million a piece would be great if Victor is willing to go for it. Carlos Beltran’s 3/$45M deal with the Yankees could also be a model (same age at FA, both all bat right now). Maybe two years and an option? Something like that should work for both sides. Martinez is a DH who can play solid first base in a backup role, meaning that his market is somewhat limited to AL teams with that specific need. It’s hard to imagine he gets another 4 year deal, but something in the 2-3 range makes sense. The Tigers won’t be paying Hunter, presumably, in 2015 and it seems like it’s going to be Ray instead of Scherzer, so the money is easily there if they want to give Victor a couple million raise to keep him in a Tigers uniform.
Martinez might not be this good, but he doesn’t have to be for an extension to be the right call. There’s no reason to think he’ll age in an unusual way, and you’re only asking him to DH, so mobility isn’t really a concern. Dave Dombrowski doesn’t usually extend players midseason – I can’t think of any examples of that – but it’s probably time to have the talk with Martinez. He’s having a great year and the Tigers are going to need a bat like his in the middle of the order in 2015 and 2016 if they hope to contend. Given the sparsity of the free agent market during this extension heavy era, locking Victor up is basically a necessity.
Plus, that gets us closer to the day that Little Victor can sign a pro contract and we all want that.
How Was The Game? (May 17, 2014)
Another feather in his cap.
Tigers 6, Red Sox 1
Rick Porcello (8 GS, 52.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 1.2 fWAR), if he were in some sort of rap battle or singing competition, would have dropped the mic when this one ended. He dominated the Red Sox and did it in style, allowing just a single run across eight innings of work in which he punched out four and walked one. He got himself into one jam in the 5th and escaped, and then barreled through the 6-7-8th innings en route to one of the most impressive outings of his career. Ausmus didn’t flinch, even, sending him out for the 8th at 100 pitches to face the top of the order a fourth time. Sure the Tigers did some things that scored runs – Cabrera homered, VMart and Avila beat the shift – but this one belongs to Rick. After it, he’s pretty clearly cemented himself as bona fide #2 starter or better, even if he is on a team of #1s. The Tigers will look to sweep on Sunday night with returning ace Anibal Sanchez (5 GS, 23 IP, 3.13 ERA, 2.43 FIP, 0.7 fWAR) on the mound.
The Moment: Porcello gets Ortiz to complete 8 masterful innings.
Don’t Sleep On Austin Jackson
Entering the year, I made the case that this was going to be a critical season for Austin Jackson. We know he can hack it in an MLB lineup but he’s been floating around between solid regular and star and how he performed in 2014 was going to tell us a lot about who he’s going to be. Jackson’s a good defender in center field, he’s a good baserunner, and he’s bounced around between good enough hitter and excellent hitter. We know what he is on the bases and in the field. His bat is the difference maker. We know this.
Jackson started hot, but cooled off to the point where he’s no longer setting the world on fire – yet there’s something really encouraging about an underlying factor you might not have noticed despite the cool down. First, let’s talk about his performance.
| Date | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ |
| 3/31 to 4/30 | 92 | 0.307 | 0.391 | 0.507 | 0.389 | 147 |
| 5/2 to present | 55 | 0.216 | 0.255 | 0.255 | 0.230 | 37 |
| Full | 147 | 0.270 | 0.340 | 0.413 | 0.329 | 106 |
I don’t want to make too much of a 55 PA sample. Overall, Jackson is having a solid season and we’re measuring his offense at it’s lowest point. He’s walking as much as ever and he’s striking out way less than ever – more than 5 percentage points – before.
What’s also interesting is that Jackson is running the lowest BABIP of his career at .302. Jackson has been notorious for running high BABIPs in his time in the majors with a career mark in the .350s. Even if you are skeptical of that number, he’s definitely a guy who is capable of producing a higher than average BABIP. This year, he’s right about average. This is encouraging because some of those balls are going to start to fall. Not all of them, mind you, because Jackson is hitting more fly balls, but he should start grabbing a few extra hits.
It seems as if Jackson is adjusting his approach now that he’s been moved into the middle of the order. He’s trying to hit for more power and it was working big time for the first month. Of course he’s slumping now, but he won’t slump forever. Why? Jackson is developing a better eye.
Let’s dig a little deeper and consider his plate discipline numbers:
| Season | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% |
| 2010 | 28.6 % | 61.9 % | 46.1 % | 67.9 % | 84.3 % | 79.5 % |
| 2011 | 26.8 % | 60.8 % | 44.0 % | 60.2 % | 84.7 % | 77.4 % |
| 2012 | 25.3 % | 57.1 % | 41.9 % | 63.8 % | 87.2 % | 80.4 % |
| 2013 | 25.4 % | 60.1 % | 43.9 % | 59.4 % | 88.6 % | 80.7 % |
| 2014 | 20.5 % | 60.1 % | 40.9 % | 63.3 % | 93.1 % | 85.8 % |
I’ll call your attention specifically to O-Swing%. Jackson is swinging at far fewer pitches outside of the zone than he used to, and if you slide over to Z-Swing% you see that he’s not laying off pitches inside the zone to the same degree. He’s getting more selective, but he’s getting more selective against only those pitches which are outside the zone.
Extend this even further and you’ll notice he’s making more contact in and out of the zone to the point at which he’s running, by far, the highest Contact% of his career. The drop in strikeout rate is real. This isn’t random fluctuation, it’s a meaningful difference in his game. All else equal, a ball in play is going to be better than a strikeout for a player’s performance assuming that the contact isn’t negatively affecting the overall swing.
The question is if it will lead to a substantially better player. What we don’t know is if the change in LD/FB rates are connected to the new selectivity. If the two are connected, maybe it all comes out in the wash. If they are separate and Jackson is simply improving his eye independent of the various other changes in his swing and approach, it’s extremely good news.
Jackson’s real flaw was that he chased a lot of pitches, but if he’s not doing that anymore he’s going to age quite well. Plate discipline and power are old player skills and as Jackson starts to lose a step in center, he’s going to need his bat to step up. This new found ability to lay off bad pitches will help.
He’s going through two simultaneous adjustments. We have to watch both. Is the shift to more fly balls good or bad? Too soon to tell. Is it the result of new swing tendencies? Too soon to tell. Jackson is showing some real signs of maturity, at least I think he is. It’s possible that Jackson has changed his swing in a way that encourages more contact, but weaker contact. You’d rather have a guy smoke the ball 80% of the time than hit it softly 85% of the time and we haven’t had enough time to sort that out.
As the Tigers move forward, they’re going to have to make a decision about Jackson’s future. He’s a free agent after 2015 and they don’t have an obvious replacement going forward. Even at his worst, he’s an MLB starter. The question is if Jackson might yet be a star. The tools are there and the eye is getting better. It’s not clear if that’s an overall positive, but the evolution is worth watching.
How Was The Game? (May 16, 2014)
A touch of revenge.
Tigers 1, Red Sox 0
The Tigers returned to the scene of the crime (read: ALCS) Friday and put their trust in Max Scherzer (9 GS, 59 IP, 1.83 ERA, 2.79 FIP, 1.7 fWAR) to shepherd them through the first of a three game set. Max was impressive out of the gate, striking out five in the first three innings before a 47 minute rain delay slowed the pace. Max finished with six plus innings and no runs, which the Tigers needed considering that they pushed just a single run across in the 1st inning and tiptoed their way through a bullpen 7th. Nathan got the final three outs and sent the Sox fans home to ruminate about their three World Series in the last ten seasons. The club will try to take the series with New English D-endorsed ace Rick Porcello (7 GS, 44.2 IP, 3.22 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 1.1 fWAR) on the hill Saturday night.
The Moment: Max gets Napoli looking to end the 6th.
Mildly Interesting Site News!
Starting next week, I will be joining TigsTown (or Scout Tigers, depending on how long you’ve been a reader) and will be writing a weekly feature over there. New English D isn’t changing and it certainly isn’t going anywhere. This is addition, not subtraction. TigsTown is undergoing a bit of a reinvention and will be adding a bit more big league analysis, which is where I will come in. Paul (@TigsTown) asked if I’d like to contribute and here we are. New English D has always had a good relationship with the other Tigers sites (like TigsTown, BYB, MCB, Walkoff Woodward, etc) and this particular arrangement made sense for both sides. Although, be warned that some of the content is behind a paywall, but the membership offers a good amount of access.
We’re still going to have the same type and level of analysis here, and I’m still writing at Beyond The Box Score and Gammons Daily. I’ll be sure to keep you in the loop with links on Twitter and I will likely post links here as well. You probably won’t even notice a difference! Thanks for reading, as always. Go Tigers.
What’s Next for Robbie Ray?
Assuming nothing changes in the next 72 hours, Robbie Ray’s place in the Tigers rotation is going back to its rightful owner: Anibal Sanchez. With that, the Tigers will have their staff intact once again, while leaving them with a decision about what to do with Ray, who has performed well in two starts against two reasonable soft opponents. What should the Tigers do?
The easiest solution is to toss Ray back to Toledo and let him continue on like the last two weeks never happened. He certainly has things on which to work and more seasoning as a starter in AAA should do some good. If Sanchez hadn’t injured his finger, we wouldn’t be considering anything else with respect to Ray. His command needs work and so do his offspeed pitches. Triple A is a fine choice.
But…
Even though it was Houston (terrible) and Minnesota (very bad against LHP), Ray held his own to the tune of a 0.79 ERA and 2.40 FIP. Interestingly, Ray struck out fewer batters and walked fewer than we expected going into the season, but he was also doing that in Toledo. We don’t know how Ray would do in a full season as a starter right now, but we’ve seen a little taste and the odds that he wouldn’t suck look better. He sat 93-94 with the fastball and used the changeup pretty well. The breaking ball was hit and miss, but he wasn’t bad at all.
Which leaves us with another option. Ray in the bullpen.
I think this is a good idea, but I’m not your typical front office strategist, so if you asked me to wager, I’d say the odds of Ray heading to Toledo are probably 80/20 right now. But on the 20% side, Ray in the bullpen makes some sense. Maybe even a lot of sense.
First of all, in the bullpen you don’t need your third pitch nearly as much because you don’t see batters two and three times in one game. Two pitches can go a lot further. Second, the Tigers are going to want to manage Ray’s innings anyway during this season, so why not manage them by shortening his outings. Instead of working 6-7 inning in Toledo, run him out there for two innings at a time in Detroit. This will allow Ray to work on developing his arsenal against MLB caliber hitters, but won’t force him to run into a lineup a third time, which is when he’ll get smacked. If he can help the club, use the innings in a way that makes the most sense.
I haven’t heard anyone worry about Ray’s stamina. The question is about his stuff and his command. I don’t think he needs to learn to stretch out or pace himself, so you don’t need to keep him in Toledo because that’s the only place he could do work on that. Although, it’s important to note that you can’t just flip a switch and be ready to start again. If they move him to the pen, you won’t be able to spot start him when Smyly needs to miss two starts with an oblique injury in August. That will have to be someone else.
You’re risking a short term fill in if you move him to the bullpen and you are affecting his long term development. There are pros and cons for the latter. Maybe he needs to work as a starter to learn to be a starter, or maybe he needs to face better competition so that he is forced to use his secondary pitches more often. It’s hard to say. We probably can’t answer that without knowing the inner workings of the Tigers strategy or Ray’s own mind.
Beyond all of this is the simple bullpen need in Detroit. The bullpen isn’t very good. Nathan seems to be over his early season issues, but there really isn’t a great reliever in the bunch. Joba and Al-Al have flashed above average, but also revert back to maddening quite often. Krol is okay. Miller is fine. Reed is fine. Coke is, well, you know. It’s not a particularly atrocious bunch, but there is very little oomph. You need some knock out relievers and Ray has that ability. A lefty who can bring 94 out of the pen with some decent offspeed stuff. He could fill the Smyly role from last season, or the role Smyly should have filled before Leyland made him a one inning specialist.
Have a 4-1 lead with the starter tiring in the 7th? Bring in Ray to throw two innings. Or three. Need someone to get five outs? Ray. How about a guy to handle two lefties split by a good righty? Again, Ray. Coke is clearly not the answer and Krol doesn’t seem like he’s going to be a true setup man right away. Why not try Ray in that role?
I think it would be a very smart move for the bullpen, it would just be a question of how it would affect Ray in other ways. Smyly seems to have handled the transition well enough, but it might not work for Robbie. It also might bite them if they need three fill in starts next month and Ray isn’t stretched out.
Used properly, I think Ray could be a difference maker in the 2014 bullpen. There are reasons not to do it, but I want to see them try. If the Tigers are really committed to winning a title, this would be the kind of move they should make. Lots of teams have broken in their top prospects with bullpen duty, the Tigers could do the same. Ray probably isn’t Wainwright or Price (Almost certainly not!), but giving him 60 innings in relief this year might be the right call and I would give it a shot.
Ballpark Review: Camden Yards
Home of the Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore, MD
It’s been almost a year since I reviewed a ballpark for this series, but there’s a very good reason. I hadn’t been to an MLB stadium in a very long time. Sure, I’ve been to a handful about which I haven’t written, but I didn’t want to write about Progressive Field when I hadn’t been there in five years. Well, problem solved. I just spent three days at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
Camden Yards is often thought of as the first of the new “old-style” parks that open out into a city and provide the comforts of modern life. U.S Cellular Field this is not. Part of Camden’s charm, in my opinion, is it’s cozy dimensions. While the concourses are spacious and only crowded when busloads of children are dumped into them, the seating is very close to the action. I sat in the last few rows of the lower deck all three games and was never very far from the action. Some parks have lots of foul territory, which Camden does not, but they are also built on a very gentle incline to maximize seating, meaning that you can end up quite a ways from the action. Not so in Baltimore.
The stadium features a three tiered design with the lower deck also divided into two parts. I sat in the rear sections of the lower deck and the only real problem was that the upper deck hangs over pretty significantly, obstructing some of the main scoreboard and high fly balls. You still have a great view of the pitcher, plate, and all of the fielders, but you can lose things from time to time. Pretty much everywhere else in the park avoids this type of issue. Overall, as long as you know what you’re getting, the sight-lines are quite good. It actually reminds me a lot of Great American in Cincinnati as far as the shape of the thing is concerned.
The food is pretty standard with the unique options being crabcake-seafood offerings and the Boog’s sandwich station out in right field. The basic offerings were good, but unspectacular and are priced pretty much in line with the average major league park. Ticket prices were reasonable all the way around, although I picked a Mon-Wed series in May, so I can’t be sure that it’s a typical experience.
The fans were a nice mix of enthusiastic and knowledgeable, and the staff was pretty attentive and welcoming as far as those things go. In a basic sense, Camden Yards is a very standard MLB stadium. There isn’t amazing food or really impressive amenities, but from a strict game-viewing perspective, it’s quite something. It’s cozy without being crammed and looks the part of a charming stadium in the heart of an old city.
I’ve been to 8 active MLB parks (Comerica, Wrigley, US Cellular, GABP, Progressive, PNC, Nationals, Camden) and two defunct ones (Tiger Stadium and Sun Life), and I would say that Camden comes out second behind PNC. I always excluded Comerica because I can’t be objective in that case. OPACY is great place to see a game, and even better when your team sweeps the O’s.
Stadium Rater (scale 1-10): 9
How Was The Game? (May 14, 2014)
An unclean sweep.
Tigers 7, Orioles 5
If you’re reading this and didn’t have some idea that I was in Baltimore for the series, now you know. As a result, it’s 11:30pm, some 7.5 hours after this one ended, and you’re just getting your brief, New English D style recap because I spent the last seven hours in a car traveling from the park to my house. Sorry if this isn’t very clever! Justin Verlander (9 GS, 60 IP, 3.15 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 1.6 fWAR) had a mostly good game and one pretty awful inning in which he allowed five runs – three of which came on a Nelson Cruz home run. Luckily for Justin, his offense had already assaulted Kevin Gausman’s fastball to the tune of 5 runs and then 2 on the bullpen for good measure, meaning that Verlander was able to walk away from this one without much of a problem. The bullpen made it close, but they ultimately held on, earning the Tigers a three game sweep as they head to Boston with a 24-12 record on the year. That series will kick off Friday with Max Scherzer (8 GS, 53 IP, 2.04 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 1.5 fWAR) on the mound.
The Moment: Worth sort of squeezes and sort of bunts for a hit.
How Was The Game? (May 13, 2014)
Dramatic.
Tigers 4, Orioles 1
Drew Smyly (5 GS, 33.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 0.5 fWAR) didn’t have his best when this one started, allowing a solo home run to Adam Jones in the first and struggling through the next two, but when all was said and done, he had himself six, one run innings. Unfortunately, his offensive comrades had nothing on their side of the ledger. The Tigers had a chance in the 7th, but gave it away on a Torii Hunter TOOTBLAN and a GIDP by Martinez. Then the 9th inning came, and boy did it ever. Avila led off with a ground ball to beat the shift and then Davis ran and stole second on a very close play which needed a review (which was amazingly tense) to make sure he got to stay on the base. Kelly lined out, Kinsler went down, and it was up to Hunter. He worked a walk to extend the inning for Cabrera and then Cabrera did what Cabrera does, sending the baseball into the Orioles’ bullpen to put the Tigers on top. VMart added a no doubt bomb immediately after and the Tigers road a huge 9th inning to a series win. They’ll play with house money, as Rod likes to say, on Wednesday behind Justin Verlander (8 GS, 54 IP, 2.67 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 1.6 fWAR).
The Moment: Cabrera gives the Tigers the lead with a 9th inning blast.
How Was The Game? (May 12, 2014)
A return.
Tigers 4, Orioles 1
I made no secret of the fact that Monday’s game was my first in person rendezvous with the Tigers since 2012 due to “living nowhere near an MLB park” and it didn’t disappoint. Rick Porcello (7 GS, 44.2 IP, 3.22 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 1.1 fWAR) was quite good, allowing only a single run in six innings of work, and that run only scored because Rajai Davis took a creative route to the baseball. He didn’t mow through the O’s with strikeouts, but he got quick out after quick out, leaving after only 83 pitches (perhaps due to illness, it wasn’t clear?). The bats did what they needed to do, pushing across two in the fourth and then two more in the 8th on an Ian Kinsler bomb. Things got interesting after that homer, as Bud Norris drilled Torii Hunter. Hunter was upset, Norris got run, and the benches and bullpens emptied. Humorously, no one came close to blows, leaving everyone standing around pretty much just posing for the camera. There’s nothing funnier than bullpens clearing for no reason, and that’s what we had tonight. The bullpen would hold it and the Tigers grabbed game one. It’ll be Drew Smyly (4 GS, 27.1 IP, 2.96 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 0.4 fWAR) on the mound Tuesday looking to take the series.
The Moment: Kinsler launches one to left, sealing the game.
New English D 