How Was The Game? (May 4, 2014)
Easy breezy.
Tigers 9, Royals 4
The Royals had to fight a two front war on Sunday, and as many European dictators can attest, that’s almost always a losing battle. They had to deal with Justin Verlander (7 GS, 47 IP, 2.68 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 1.4 fWAR), who was on his game today and did not allow a hit until the 6th inning and the Tigers bats. Verlander walked four and allowed a three spot in the 7th, but that was after the Tigers had already put this game out of reach. The offense scored early and often as every member of the starting lineup had a hit, punctuated by home runs from Castellanos and Avila. Davis also had three hits and scored three runs and Victor Martinez was IBB’d twice for the second time in the series as the Tigers marched to a 9-3 victory, their 5th straight and 10th in their last 13 tries. They’ll head back to Detroit tonight ahead of a four game set with the Astros that starts Monday. Max Scherzer (6 GS, 39 IP, 2.08 ERA, 2.71 FIP, 1.2 fWAR) will be on the hill, so bring your strikeout hats to the park.
The Moment: Castellanos hits a no doubt shot in the 2nd.
How Was The Game? (May 3, 2014)
All Smyls.
Tigers 9, Royals 2
Drew Smyly (3 GS, 22 IP, 2.45 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 0.5 fWAR) probably deserves top billing for his seven innings of shutout baseball in which he allowed just four baserunners, but also receiving votes was Nick Castellanos who drove in the first three runs, one on a sac fly and two on an RBI double. Cabrera did his part with some clutch baserunning (!) and Kinsler did his part to help the Royals with an impressive set of two TOOTBLANs. Hunter, Jackson, and Davis each made a fine play in the outfield and the bullpen managed to maintain the lead across the final six outs while the bats unloaded in the 9th to secure the win. The Tigers will go for the sweep on Sunday and their fifth straight win behind Justin Verlander (6 GS, 40 IP, 2.48 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 1.1 fWAR).
The Moment: Torii Hunter makes a diving catch that no one thought he would make.
Rick Porcello: Ace Rising
It’s possible that the title of this post is a touch hyperbolic. But then again, not really. It depends on your definition of ace. At this exact moment in time, Porcello isn’t one of the best dozen starters in the game, but he’s quietly turning himself into a top tier arm that could anchor most MLB rotations as a #2 starter, and could slide in as the best pitcher on quite a few teams. Yeah, maybe “ace” is a generous description, but Porcello is very good and will continue to be.
I’ve been beating this drum for years, so my apologies if I’ve already won you over, but it demands repeating. Porcello isn’t just a really good #5 starter anymore, he’s a bona fide good starting pitcher. He might even be arriving as a star.
Let’s cover some of the particulars. Porcello was good enough in his first two seasons (09-10), was a little better in (11-12), and then broke out in 2013. He’s consistently been worthy of an MLB job, but he went from solid backend guy to legitimate building block over the last couple of years. He went from a low strikeout, high ground ball guy to an average strikeout, high ground ball guy. The big leap in strikeouts in 2013 pushed Porcello forward. And he’s sustained that improvement in 2014 while also slicing his walk totals to Cliff Lee-ian levels. Take a look.
His FIP and xFIP have improved in each of his six seasons and his ERA has improved in each of the last five. This year, he’s also limiting the damage against lefties, cutting his wOBA against them by something like 70 points so far. Some of this is also about context. Porcello has thrown up (essentially) three straight 3.0 fWAR seasons (we always use FanGraphs WAR here, if you’re new) and is on pace for something more like 4.0+ WAR this year. Granted, we’re only about 15% of the way through the season and he probably won’t really only walk 3.3% of hitters, but the gains he made last year seem like they’re here to stay. Take a look at his swinging strikes per pitch over his career.
The case against Porcello, of which there are a number of advocates, fails to consider three important things. First, as hard as we try to change things, ERA still comes first for most people and Porcello has had inflated ERA’s in the past because he played in front of bad defenses. He allowed a lot of singles because no one could get to the ball. This year, in front of real defenders, he has a career best batting average against (.239), WHIP (1.00), and BABIP (.272). He’s not doing a whole lot differently, but his defense isn’t letting the ball get through as easily, which is helping keep that ERA in check.
Another thing to consider is that just because Porcello has been around forever, doesn’t mean he’s immune from normal expectations. Jose Fernandez like dominance at 21 is extremely rare. Porcello was big league ready at 20, but that doesn’t mean he was done developing at 20. He’s worked on things and improved over the course of his career, but he’s only 25. Justin Verlander’s age 25 season was his third full year. It will be Porcello’s sixth. Justin Verlander was a 3-4 WAR guy from ages 23-25. From ages 26-29, Verlander was a 6-8 WAR pitcher. I’m not saying Porcello is Verlander, but it’s not crazy to say that he’ll get better into his late 20s. Pitchers peak as they approach 30 and Porcello isn’t anywhere close.
Beyond that, Porcello is simply overshadowed. Tigers fans are spoiled. We think it’s normal to have Verlander AND Scherzer AND Sanchez AND (at one time) Fister. That’s not normal. Most teams have one guy who can get into that conversation. The Tigers have had 3-4 aces over each of the last four seasons. That’s ridiculous. Porcello isn’t as good as Scherzer, but you don’t have to be as good as Scherzer to be pretty freaking good.
I don’t think Porcello is going to turn into a Hall of Fame arm, but I do think there’s more improvement coming. Last year, he added a curveball to help him add strikeouts. This year, he found a way to make use of a slider that had previously been terrible. He’s making better use of his swing back fastball (see below) and he’s finding the right moments to dial up at blast 94-95 by batters.
People have been predicting the Porcello leap forever, but I hate to break it to them, the breakouts have been happening. He has taken many steps forward over the years but they were hidden by rough defense and the occasional blow up outing. This year, he’s locked in. Maybe it’s maturity or experience kicking in, maybe Avila and Jones figured something out, maybe he didn’t like Leyland’s secondhand smoke. I’m not totally sure.
For crying out loud, small sample size and such understood, he has the same K% as Verlander right now. For a variety of reasons, Porcello’s own fans haven’t appreciated the development. But when you examine the body of work, he’s actually on a great path. The Tigers have him for one more season (through 2015). For all the talk about Scherzer’s extension, Porcello is the guy they should be chasing. He’s not as good right now, but Porcello is going to get better and Scherzer is going to slowly decline as he ages. The best extensions are the ones for guys in the their 20s, not their 30s. You bet on the guy trending up and Porcello is definitely in that class.
It may be difficult to look at a guy who’s the fourth best starter on his team and think he’s terrific, but that’s only a problem because he happens to be on such an historic staff. If he was on the Twins or the Pirates or the Orioles or the Cubs he’d look like a star. Hopefully he’ll be cursed with this perception problem for his entire career and will stay in a Tigers uniform in Verlander’s shadow. He might not be an ace, but we’re at the point where one more little improvement could push him into that conversation.
How Was The Game? (May 2, 2014)
Superb.
Tigers 8, Royals 2
It was another banner night for Rick Porcello (5 GS, 32 IP, 3.66 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 0.7 fWAR), who scattered four hits and two runs across seven excellent innings in which he struck out six Kansas City Royals. He allowed a run on a sac fly in the first and on a solo shot in the fourth, but set down the final 12 men he faced and was never in trouble. The bats came to his aid with two in the third, three in the fourth, and three in the seventh to make this a comfortable one for Rick and the bullpen. Martinez had a three hit day and Avila swatted a two run homer to right center in the effort. The win lifts the Tigers to 15-9 and will give them a chance to take the series Saturday behind Drew Smyly (2 GS, 15 IP, 3.60 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 0.2 fWAR).
The Moment: Avila delivers a two run blast in the fourth.
Tigers Sign Joel Hanrahan Because Of Course They Do
When you have a really good team with one really obvious weakness, it stands to reason that you’re going to attempt to solve that deficiency. On Friday, the Tigers made an attempt to do so, signing free agent reliever Joel Hanrahan to a one year deal worth $1 million (with $2 million in incentives).
Put it this way, in 2008 and 2009, he was a solid reliever. In 2010 and 2011, he was very good. In 2012, he was alright and in 2013 he was terrible in very limited playing time. He was a workhorse reliever with shades of greatness during his time with the Nationals and Pirates, but relievers have a shelf life and his elbow needed to be rebuilt last season.
The Tigers bullpen, however, can use all the help it can get. They have a 5.37 ERA and 4.27 FIP in 70.1 innings this season, and that includes useful appearances from Drew Smyly, who is actually a starting pitcher.
Given that the salary isn’t crazy, this is a perfectly fine move for the Tigers to make. They need bullpen help and he’s one of the few available players who belongs in an MLB bullpen. But it’s important to consider that reliever rarely maintain form and they especially don’t do so after major surgery. Hanrahan is probably going to make the bullpen better, but it’s not likely that he’s going to come in and be a shut down reliever who makes them a lot better. This is a smart move, just don’t expect him to be a savior.
One thing of note is that over the last couple of seasons he’s been better against lefties than righties. We probably don’t know enough to say he has a reverse platoon split, but we do know enough to say that he can handle hitters from both sides. Maybe it doesn’t knock Phil Coke out of town, but it’s plausible that it could.
He’s a high velocity, fastball/slider guy, but he’s coming off an injury and was only ever a great reliever for a short period of time. Hanrahan will help, but he won’t move the needle too much. For that to happen, the pitchers the Tigers have in the organization are simply going to have to figure things out. Luckily, the starters and bats are covering for them for now.
One Quick Thing: Is Verlander Much Better or Much Worse?
Since it’s no longer April and 1) we can feel better psychologically about discussing small sample size statistics and 2) I have dramatically more free time, it’s worth looking into some early season trends. Unfortunately, this is a Tigers website and the team has only played like seven games this season due to the rainouts and off days, so we’re a little behind everyone else. To that end, Justin Verlander.
I pointed out last week that he’s clearly over his mid-2013 struggles. If you look at his numbers dating back to last September, postseason included, you’d be very pleased. In 15 starts, he’s thrown 102.2 innings and turned in a 1.93 ERA and 1.84 FIP. That’s Pedro Martinez at his peak kind of stuff, and we’re talking about a half season’s worth of data.
But if you look at only the 2014 season, there are a couple of red flags. Should we worry?
His strikeout rate is way down (18.2%) and his walk rate is slightly up (8.8%) over last season, and last season wasn’t his best work. We’re talking about a 7% drop in K rate and 2% increase in walk rate from his 2011-12 peaks. That’s more balls in play and more free bases. Fortunately, he’s suppressing home runs extremely well so far this season, which means his ERA and FIP look great. But his xFIP is a gaudy 4.37, which isn’t encouraging. If his HR/FB% regresses back to his career norm, his 2.48 ERA is going to increase along with it. Now Verlander has always been better than average when it comes to limiting home runs, but he simply cannot continue to allow a 1.9 HR/FB%. That’s not something of which a person is capable.
The reality is probably that his HR rate will jump but that his strikeout rate will join it, creating something of a balancing effect. Verlander hasn’t been getting extremely lucky, so it’s not like a huge number of hard hit balls are going to start falling and he’s going to wind up struggling to get through four innings. He’s also been worse against RHH than LHH, which is almost certainly something that won’t continue.
I’m not at all worried. His curveball has looked very good and he’s been in control during most of his starts. He’s preventing runs for now, and should start picking up more strikeouts as that becomes necessary.
New English D 