How Was The Game? (July 13, 2014)
One that got away.
Royals 5, Tigers 2
With one game left before the break, the Tigers were poised to sweep the Royals in KC and wind up 8.5 games up in the division. Justin Verlander (20 GS, 129 IP, 4.88 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 1.9 fWAR) looked very solid early, retiring 9 of the first 10 batters he faced and keeping the Royals off the board for the first 6 innings but a couple of clean hits and a few BABIP singles opened the door in the 7th by the time the bullpen had done their thing, the Tigers were trailing 5-2 and Verlander had allowed four runs. He punched out only three and walked just one, but generally performed well for the majority of the game. These are the kind of outings that wouldn’t stress you out if you weren’t thinking about the ones where he actually struggled as well. The bats nabbed a couple of runs and JD Martinez played some nifty defense to cap off his great half, but the Tigers couldn’t rally in the late innings and end the first half with a 53-38 record and a 6.5 game lead in the AL Central. We’ll see a few Tigers in Minnesota on Tuesday and then Anibal Sanchez (16 GS, 94.2 IP, 3.04 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 2.4 fWAR) taking the ball on Friday.
The Moment: JD Martinez makes a pair of terrific grab s in RF.
How Was The Game? (July 12, 2014)
Great, for those who were allowed to see it.
Tigers 5, Royals 1
Rick Porcello (18 GS, 119.1 IP, 3.39 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 1.7 fWAR) went seven innings and gave up one run tonight and it didn’t even feel like a particularly great start because this is starting to become the norm. He allowed six hits and three walks while punching out three, but he got himself out of some jams with some timing ground balls and well placed strikeouts. They grabbed a run in the 3rd and 4th and then unleashed their secret 9th inning weapon, JD Martinez, who homered to make it 3-1, who was followed shortly by Avila launching a 2-run shot to right center. The bullpen did the trick and the Tigers locked up the series and nothing worse than a 6.5 game lead heading into the break with one game to play. If Justin Verlander (19 GS, 122.2 IP, 4,84 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 1.7 fWAR) leads them to victory on Sunday, they’ll have a bigger division lead at the break than they did in 1984.
The Moment: Martinez and Avila add big insurance runs with 9th inning homers.
How Was The Game? (July 11, 2014)
A throwback.
Tigers 2, Royals 1
Remember last year when every game with the Royals was super close? Tonight brought back memories. Both teams grabbed a run in the first and a Miguel Cabrera sac fly in the 3rd ended up being the difference. Anibal Sanchez (16 GS, 94.2 IP, 3.04 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 2.4 fWAR) looked a little more like himself across seven innings, allowing eight hits and no walks while striking out three and allowing just the one run. He allowed some hits, but the hard contact and weird lack of command seemed to have left him this time around. It certainly helps to play the Royals, who are afraid of the three true outcomes. The Royals had chances to nab the tying run, but they gave away a chance when Suarez turned in some great defense and another when Cain crossed over the plate and interfered with a Holaday throw to second. And of course when Joe Nathan came on. The win pushes the Tigers 6.5 up on the Royals with Rick Porcello (17 GS, 112.1 IP, 3.53 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 1.6 fWAR) looking to take the series Saturday night.
The Moment: Suarez makes a run saving stab with the infield drawn in.
How Was The Game? (July 10, 2014)
A slaughter.
Tigers 16, Royals 4
If you’re a Royals fan, you might want to look the other way. Drew Smyly (15 GS, 87.2 IP, 4.00 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 0.7 fWAR) was fine, but he all he had to do was not pitch like a 16 year old and he was probably going to come out on the winning side. The Tigers bats absolutely demolished Royals’ pitching. Three in the first, three in the fourth, eight in the fifth, and add on runs even later. Everyone had a hit. The Tigers had 9 extra base hits and a whole bunch of singles and walks to boot. You’d think a 16 run attack would warrant a really long recap, but in reality, it’s hard to pick anything out of the experience because it was so preposterously one-sided. The Tigers beat the Royals by a lot of runs. Recap over. Anibal Sanchez (15 GS, 87.2 IP, 3.18 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 2.1 fWAR) tries to get back on track Friday.
The Moment: The Tigers hang 8 runs on the Royals in the 5th.
The First Month of Eugenio Suarez
We can be technical and acknowledge that Eugenio Suarez played his first game slightly over a month ago and that he currently has 29 MLB games played, neither of which equate to “a month,” but stop being so pedantic and getting hung up on titles of blog posts. That’s not a good look on you. What is looking good, however, is Suarez’s stat line through 100 or so plate appearances. What do we know so far?
Let’s start with the basic numbers. In 102 plate appearances he’s hitting .273/.347/.432 (.346 wOBA, 117 wRC+) with a 9.8 BB% and 24.5 K%. He’s at 0.3 BsR and -1 DRS and 0.2 UZR. The whole package is a tidy 0.8 fWAR in about a month of work. If Suarez was exactly this player for a full season, that’s good for about 4.5 WAR. Suarez probably isn’t that good, but that’s totally okay. Not many players are that good.
The scouting report on Suarez’s defense was that he was good enough to stay up the middle and has the arm for short. He’s no Iglesias, but the predominant opinion is that he can handle the position. He’s not an elite runner, but he’s not lumbering either. Both of these reports line up with what we’ve seen visually and in the numbers so far.
So the question with Suarez is the bat…duh. It’s always the hit tool. Scouts always liked his approach and the difference between a good player and a utility profile was going to be how well he squared up the pitches he decided to attack. So far the walks look about right and the strikeouts are only a touch above what you’d think for a guy that gets into deep counts without an elite contact ability.
If you look at his minor league batting lines, you’re expecting right around the player you’re seeing right now. About 9-10 BB%, 20+ K%, high BABIP, decent pop for a SS. A guy’s stats probably shouldn’t translate directly, but the shape of the line is plausible.
The projections aren’t buying it yet and see him as a .290 wOBA guy instead of .340. That’s a world of difference. One is a fringe starter/back up and one is a star. I think the projections are too pessimistic here, but that’s their nature. I don’t think .340 is very likely but if he’s a .320 wOBA guy that would be terrific. He has enough power, discipline, and BABIP skills for that to work for me. I wouldn’t expect a great bat, but I think it’s good enough to keep him in a starting role, although long term that’s probably at 3B or LF for the Tigers, but a lot can happen.
Granted, these are just initial impressions, but I think Suarez can handle himself in the majors. We’ll revisit this again once we’ve had a longer look, but given what the Tigers were trying at SS for the first two months, this is fantastic.
How Was The Game? (July 9, 2014)
A tidy little duel.
Tigers 4, Dodgers 1
Max Scherzer (19 GS, 126.1 IP, 3.35 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 3.1 fWAR) probably won’t end up signing with the Dodgers this offseason, but they’re a big spender and he’ll be a big free agent. After today’s start, they’re either going to be really interested in him or very mad at him, considering that he allowed six baserunners and just one run over seven innings while also punching out seven. The only blemish was a solo home run to someone who isn’t even making $15 million like most of the Dodgers. The bats got a couple of runs in the 1st inning and added single runs in the 4th and 8th to give Joe Nathan enough of a cushion to finish this one off with a little bridge from Joba Chamberlain. It didn’t start well, but the Tigers swept the two game set from one of baseball’s best teams ahead of a four game set to end the first half against the Royals. Drew Smyly (14 GS, 81 IP, 3.89 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 0.8 fWAR) will grab the ball in game one.
The Moment: Jackson leads off the game with a triple to RCF.
Justin Verlander and Two Kinds of Command
For one inning on Tuesday, Justin Verlander stunk. He allowed five runs and you can’t really explain them away with BABIP or bad timing or whatever. It was a bad inning. Bad innings happen and we’re only concerned because they’ve been happening to him more and more this season. One thing stood out about Verlander’s performance, however, and that was the location of his pitches in the first inning compared to the second inning. Observe:
The top graphic is from the first inning and the bottom graphic is from the rest of the game. Let me call your attention to how many pitches are in the strike zone during the first inning. Most of the time when he missed the zone, he missed by big margin and the other times he was right on the edge.
Drop down to the second graphic and notice how he’s delivering a chunk of high fastballs above the zone and inside to righties (away to lefties). They’re close to the zone, but out of the zone. Then you have a population of sliders down and away to right-handers.
I don’t want to make too much of one inning in one start, but I do think it’s worth noting that Verlander was more successful when it wasn’t about throwing strikes and it was about throwing pitches that are difficult to hit. His walk rate is up this year, which leaves people worried about his command, but his strikeout rate is also down because when he does throw strikes, they are more hittable pitches.
I advocated earlier this year for Verlander to pitch differently, recognizing that he doesn’t have 100 anymore, meaning that challenging a hitter with his fastball has to happen in different circumstances than it used to when he had top end gas. Command isn’t just throwing strikes, it’s about throwing quality strikes. I could go up there and put the ball in the zone, but I couldn’t go up there and put it exactly two inches below the outside corner. That’s what you have to do to get good hitters out if your stuff isn’t elite. Expanding the zone a little more with each pitch can really make a difference. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come, but we’ve said that many times this year.
How Was The Game? (July 8, 2014)
A 180.
Tigers 14, Dodgers 5
I adopted a dog in December, so during the 2014 baseball season I’ve occasionally missed watching the beginning of a game because the pup takes his evening way between dinner and the first pitch. Today was one of those days. Like, I have a cell phone and everything, so it’s not like I can’t follow the game, I just can’t watch on my TV. By the time I got to my couch, it was 3-0 Dodgers.By the time I sat on my couch, it was 5-0. That’s not good because Justin Verlander (19 GS, 122.2 IP, 4.84 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 1.7 fWAR) was pitching and we’re trying to get him going. He gave up five runs before I basically did anything! And then, miraculously, the Tigers jumped all over Ryu. They got all five back in the 2nd. Then they got two in the 4th. Then four in the 4th! Then one in the 5th! And two in the 7th! All the while, Verlander didn’t even allow a baserunner for a long time after that first inning and didn’t surrender another run. Even the bullpen didn’t allow a run over three innings. There’s quite a bit you could say (Cabrera tripled!!!!), but I think this might say it all.
Max Scherzer (18 GS, 119.1 IP, 3.47 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 3.0 fWAR) faces Greinke for the sweep on Wednesday
The Moment: The Tigers rally back for five in the 2nd to erase Verlander’s clunker.
How Was The Game? (July 6, 2014)
Not much at which to look.
Rays 7, Tigers 3
On the evening he wasn’t chosen for the All-Star team, Rick Porcello (17 GS, 112.1 IP, 3.53 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 1.6 fWAR) had a rough night, certainly compared to his previous few outings. Coming off two straight shutouts, Porcello was due for a more human performance. The Rays were aggressive early and jumped on him for a few hits and three runs in the 1st and then tacked on runs in the 5th. All told, it was 5.1 innings and seven runs, but it’s hard to be upset given what he’s done recently. The bats grabbed and early run and then remained silent for quite some time until rHunter added one on in the 7th and JD Martinez added another in the 9th. Then it started raining and thundering and lightening as the Tigers drew two walks to put some pressure on but they failed to complete the rally and dropped three of four in the series. They’ll take Monday off and then turn to Justin Verlander (18 GS, 116.2 IP, 4.71 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 1.7 fWAR) against the Dodgers Tuesday.
The Moment: The Tigers mount a 9th inning rally as thunder and lightening engulf metro Detroit.
How Was The Game? (July 5, 2014)
Forgettable.
Rays 7, Tigers 2
In reality, I shouldn’t actively direct you to stop reading the site I created, but you don’t want to read about this game. Anibal Sanchez (15 GS, 87.2 IP, 3.18 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 2.1 fWAR) appeared to be in control early, but absolutely lost it in the 5th and 6th inning, offering walks and hard contact to any Ray who would take them. He ended the day after 5.2 innings, seven runs, six hits, four walks, and just one strikeout. There was nothing to like about this start by the time it was over. Although, if you’re going to throw a clunker, you might as well do it on a day when the offense didn’t deliver either. The Tigers put almost no pressure on Archer and scored their only runs on an Avila homer in the 7th and a Martinez bomb in the 9th. Rick Porcello (16 GS, 106.2 IP, 3.12 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 1.8 fWAR) will get the ball Sunday night against David Price, looking for his third straight shutout and a series split.
The Moment: Avila launches a home run in the general direction of the FSD broadcast team.
New English D 