I started this blog in waning days of the 2012 season, desperate for distraction and a connection to the homeland I had departed. My childhood, my teens, and my early adulthood were defined by my connection to this team. The futility of the 90s and early aughts. The return to glory of 2006. The humiliation of 2008. The devastation of Game 163. The 2011 to 2014 run where they got so close so many times.

By the time 2017 rolled around and the threads of the Verlander Era finally came undone, I was burned out on the grind of blogging and my life was pulling me elsewhere. The franchise tanked, COVID happened, the world was on fire, my own life changed in profound ways. Little by little, the team and the sport mattered less and less.

I haven’t been in it in six years. I follow the happenings through baseball engaged friends I made on Twitter over the years, but it’s all been second-hand for a while. I put on some Skubal starts in April. I watch the Riley Greene highlights. But this has all been happening without me. And the middling nature of the first four months of this season made it easy to continue that pattern. Unremarkable baseball, just as it had been for the six years I had missed.

I have idly wondered over the years how I would feel – how I would respond – when things changed. The late aughts/early teens Tigers were so central to my life, but I’m not a casual. I’m either in or out. And I’ve been out partly because the team has been so bad, but also for my own personal reasons. So when the team eventually made a run, what would it mean to me? Would it wake the part of me I put away?

I think the honest answer is that I want to care more than I actually care. I like the idea of getting caught up in this improbable run, but the reality is that this just isn’t my Tigers team. I haven’t been along for the ride. Even if they really do it, it won’t mean what it meant to watch the 2013 team get within six wins of glory.

Which is fine. I felt something when Michigan won. A twinge of sadness when the Lions gave away the NFC championship. I’m sure I’ll feel something if the Tigers get there. But I am – either temporarily or permanently – blocked from the level of engagement I had during those October nights at the beginning of the last decade.

My kids are too young to understand what they’re watching. One of them likes to put on sports and ask me questions. She knows what tackling is. She has a Caitlin Clark highlight reel she enjoys. But the concept of a local team and winning and losing is a couple more years away. So even if the Tigers do it, I won’t be able to see it through her eyes.

That being said, this mad dash to contention has has left me wanting to at least put some kind of marker down on the site to recognize the first Tigers contender of whatever we end up calling this era.

So…

I used to have this tradition on the site that you might remember. I would do a rational and thoughtful season preview post where I gave my analysis of how the season would go. Then the next day I would post something titled, “Screw It: Why The (Year) Tigers Will Win The World Series” where I wrote the narrative of the season if everything went right. I haven’t published anything on the site in four and a half years and I haven’t done any kind of consistent blogging in even longer, so I kind of get the chance to come out of the darkness here with zero previous analysis of the whole situation.

Right now, the Tigers are tied with the Royals with the 12th best winning percentage in baseball. To make the playoffs, they need to simply finish ahead of the Royals (by outplaying then the rest of the way) or the Twins (by playing as well or better). The Tigers have three against the Rays and then three against the White Sox. The Royals see the Nats and Braves. The Twins have the Marlins and Orioles. Even if you don’t accept the last six weeks of Tigers as their reality, it’s easy to see a path to the Wild Card round.

The Tigers are winning in 2024 on the backs of a middle of the pack offense and the fourth best run prevention in baseball. What’s notable here is that the Tigers are actually getting mildly unlucky in terms of preventing runs. If you strip out the sequencing and just look at BaseRuns, they are actually the second best. I wouldn’t put a lot of stock in splicing the data that finely, but the point is that this isn’t one of those teams that is performing outside of the scope of their underlying metrics.

At the end of the day on July 31, the Tigers were 52-57. After, they’ve been 30-17. They’ve gone from a wRC+ of 93 before to 100 after. Their ERA- went from 100 to 72. Their FIP- from 94 to 85. They’re playing better baseball and getting better results. No shenanigans there. It’s a question of the degree to which they are this team now, or the degree they can keep being this team for five more weeks.

Carpenter is mashing since August 1. Meadows, McKinstry, and Tork have been great. Greene is back. Keith has cooled off. A lot of great pitching, led by Skubal, but Holton’s dominance is not out of nowhere.

Year to date, the bullpen numbers are good. A 90 ERA- and 95 FIP- makes them a top 10 bullpen. But since August 1? A 68 ERA- (best in baseball) and 84 FIP-.

You can see what it would look like if they did it.

Do I think this is the most talented team in baseball? Of course not. Are they playing great right now? Absolutely. Are there any obvious performances that can’t possibly continue into the tournament? I wouldn’t bet on a 180 wRC+ from Carpenter, and I’m sure there will be some bullpen regression, but it works in both directions. Greene could get hotter. Keith could hit better.

There is enough talent here to win. I wouldn’t take the Tigers as favorites against any of the division winners for sure, but they aren’t so overmatched that it couldn’t happen.

I don’t know if I said it anywhere in writing but this felt like a team that would hang around .500. They banked some wins and have shown enough to say they’re probably a hair better, true talent-wise than I thought.

The baseball playoffs are designed to unnaturally level the field and there are no truly great teams in 2024. So I mean, like, why not? It’s all house money at this point.

If nothing else, hopefully this flirtation with October reminds ownership what this franchise could be and what it might look like to put a winner in Detroit after a decade of losing and four decades of failing to win the last game.

Am I invested in this season? In this team? Certainly less so than many of you. But might they be a bridge back? I can see it.