Cabrera Wins MVP and a Brilliant Drama Concludes
Tonight, Mike Trout lost the MVP race to Miguel Cabrera. We expected as much. Traditional thinking that favors team success in the MVP voting won out and Trout, who had the better season, came in second.
A lot of other weird things happened in the full balloting. Like the couple people who left Cano off the ballot. Or how no one put Torii Hunter, Alex Gordon, or Austin Jackson on their ballots anywhere from 1-10. And how Jim Johnson (who is a great reliever) was anywhere near the voting.
But we should probably take stock of our lives at this point and realize these awards don’t matter at all. The BBWAA hands out these awards based on the preferences of their members. Sporting News does the same thing. Other smaller groups hand out their own. (SABR Toothed Tigers included and the vote was unanimous!)
BBWAA has prominence because they are the oldest. There is history attached, but that’s all. Mike Trout’s season is no less impressive or memorable because he didn’t win the MVP. Neither was Verlander’s because he lost the Cy Young
We get caught up in these races because we like talking about sports, but the actual consequences are very small unless you’re one of the players involved. So while I think a lot of the voting this year and in past years is garbage, it doesn’t really affect my life or yours and I’m not going to bed angry.
Things don’t always happen the way they should. That’s part of life. Mike Trout will wake up tomorrow as the best player from 2012 whether or not he has a plaque to show it. Miguel Cabrera will clear room on his mantle.
While a lot of the conversation surrounding this award was toxic, I think the race was great for the game. Cabrera supporters acted silly by dismissing sabermetrics, but not because they don’t like sabermetrics, but because the only reason they don’t like them is they don’t like what sabermetrics told them.
Sabermetrics are great. They give you a lot of information. It’s silly to dismiss them because you don’t like what they tell you. The people wanted Cabrera to win, so they attacked the method of the people supporting Trout. That’s what I didn’t like.
The Trout crew was also at fault. Honestly, we walked around like the Cabrera supports needed their mittens pinned to their jackets like four year olds. We lost sight of the fact that Cabrera had a great season and deserved to be near the top of the ballot.
We shouldn’t dismiss the human element of the game so quickly just because we think it’s silly. Most valuable player means best player to us in the sabermetric community, but a lot of people think and vote with their gut. MVP is about the story. It is about the narrative. Just because we don’t like that, doesn’t mean that isn’t okay. Narratives are fun.
I didn’t like that this became about stats and tradition, because it was really about evidence and instinct. We who supported Trout like tangible evidence. Those who backed Cabrera care about weaving the evidence together in a way that feels right and exciting.
It’s totally okay that people supported Cabrera for that reason, but they should say so. It should be about liking him or liking the idea of a power hitter or liking the idea of carrying a team to the postseason. But all of those are stories we tell ourselves. It’s baseball mythology and it’s great, but admit that’s what it was and I’ll be fine.
So while I don’t like how angry this got, I love that we were in this position. We watched phenomenal baseball in 2012. Trout versus Cabrera wasn’t a close race for most people (because they strongly favored one or the other), but man was it a fun one. Trout being an all-around star while Cabrera mashed.
It was one for the ages. So was the Cy Young race. And the NL race was awesome two, we just forgot to look. The AL Manager of the Year was razor thin and we got to witness the Year of Mike Trout and the beginning of Bryce Harper.
The Dodgers bought a team and the Red Sox started over. The A’s came from nowhere and the Orioles wouldn’t go away. The Cardinals kept the magic alive and the Rangers crumbled.
Phil Humber threw a perfect game. So did Matt Cain and King Felix, but my god, Phil Humber threw a perfect game. I’ll never forget that. It was during my bachelor party.
Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw pitched brilliantly. R.A. Dickey for crying out loud.
The Pirates had something to say and the Nationals built a winner. Fernando Rodney was a shutdown reliever. Fernando. Rodney.
Bret Lawrie fell six feet onto concrete to catch a baseball and Chris Sale didn’t need surgery.
Baseball was awesome in 2012. It was beautiful and unpredictable and wonderfully cruel.
The Infield Fly Rule Game in Atlanta broke hearts and made dreams come true. Chipper Jones and Omar Vizquel retired, leaving the five year old in me a little confused about where baseball went.
So while this feels like the end of a bitter civil war, it’s really the end of a great chapter in a supremely thrilling novel. On April 1st, 30 teams clung to the hope that this would, in fact, be the year. Only one held on all season.
So we’ll follow trades and free agents and we’ll prepare for fantasy drafts and cactus league games. We’ll stare out the window and wait for spring.
It was a fun season and now it’s really over. Miguel Cabrera won the MVP over Mike Trout, but the real winner was us. We got to sit on our coaches, in our cars, and in our seats and watch this spectacular drama unfold.
Stuck Between the Yankees and the A’s: Mid-Market Business Models
The Marlins embarrassing fire sale has a lot of people talking about the business model of that franchise and how it has long been a bare bones payroll operation that feasts on revenue sharing. Essentially, the Marlins ownership is operating the cheapest team possible so that they can profit from MLB redistributing wealth designed to help small market teams increase payroll and be more competitive.
Revenue sharing is meant to take from the rich and give to the poor. It’s supposed to take money from the Yankees and give it to the A’s so that the A’s can add a little more payroll and be a little more competitive. It’s good for the parity of the sport.
But the Marlins are gaming the system and running a skeleton crew because the only condition of revenue sharing is being an MLB team. Other small market clubs don’t do this. They are trying to win with limited resources and find creative ways to do so. Tampa Bay and Oakland are classic examples of clubs that sell high on players who are due big raises and buy low on guys who are undervalued.
They play Moneyball. Miami plays “Losing Ball.” Just put 25 guys on a roster and feast on the profits. It’s obnoxious and the next CBA should put rules in place to spot it, but it got me thinking about market size and success.
A lot of smaller market/revenue clubs have exploited the Moneyball model and won a lot of games in the last decade. We also see a lot of big market teams win. What about the middle range clubs?
I think middle market clubs might actually be at a disadvantage and I’d like to outline why.
Big market teams can afford risky extensions and free agent contracts to good players. If the Yankees overpaid Alex Rodriguez (they did), they are not threatening the long term health of the franchise. If that contract stinks in 2014, they can spend their way out of the hole. They may choose not to, but they have that option given the resources at their disposal.
Small market clubs have the opposite arrangement. They can only afford favorable contracts. They lock up young players very early and guarantee a smaller sum, but do so much earlier than they have to. On the FA market, they sign players coming off down years and injuries who rich teams don’t bid on.
Both approaches have worked in recent memory. The Yankees and A’s are great examples. They both won 94+ games this year with dramatically different business models. Both can be successful if the right leadership is in charge.
But I believe that mid-market clubs are in a tough situation relative to the big and small markets. Mid-market teams have the resources to spend on the market, but they can only do so in a limited way. The Brewers, for example, could afford to sign Josh Hamilton this year (or Fielder last year), but if they plunked down that cash, they would be boxed in for years to come. If the contract didn’t work out as planned, they would not be able to spend their way out of it in 4 years and would be stuck with Hamilton and a bunch of AAAA players.
They have the money to spend sometimes, but not all the time. Their fans demand action, but if the action fails because all big deals are risky, they cannot fix it with another big deal. If they don’t provide action and sign Casey Kotchmans, their fan base will be unhappy because they look at the payroll and see the flexibility.
They have the money to spend, but if they spend it now, they can’t spend it later. In other words, when they go for it, they have to guess right. Signing that big player has to work out or it torpedoes the club for years.
These clubs want to avoid risk, but fans demand risk because they know the team can afford it. Fans are impatient and want to win now, but organizations want to win consistently. If they take a bad risk, it will ruin them.
The Yankees can take bad risks and spend out of them. The A’s never take bad risks because they can’t afford it. The Brewers can take risks, but they can only do so every so often. With an impatient population like sports fans, that’s a tough spot to be in if you’re a GM.
When do you spend? If you think Hamilton is a bad risk, you should pass. But if you pass too much, your fans start to drift away. They start to resent you. If they stop coming, the payroll is more constrained and you can’t win them back as easily.
Basically, mid-market clubs are stuck between spending and fans who understand why they can’t spend.
Tampa Bay and Oakland can trade their star players on the cusp of free agency and their fans understand that they’re getting a good return at the right time before they can’t afford these stars. A lot of mid-market teams can’t do that. Imagine the Reds trading Votto this year before the extension. Fans would have revolted.
We often speak about the struggles of the small market clubs, but small market clubs have gotten it right in the past. It’s not impossible to succeed in that framework. I think it’s harder to win from the middle because you have to balance resources with expectations.
That said, it’s hard to feel bad for MLB GMs who have one of the most fun jobs in the world.
The Mysterious Eric Hosmer
2012 opened with very high hopes for Royals’ 1B Eric Hosmer. He was coming off a solid four month debut in 2011 and had a monster spring training. Scouts in ST said he looked as good as anyone in baseball at the plate in March.
Hosmer was one of the breakout candidates in baseball in 2012, but that didn’t happen. I was among the fans of Hosmer who saw big things in 2012 and put my money where my mouth was, drafting him 66th overall in my fantasy baseball league, right about where Yahoo! had him ranked. He finished in the 340s.
But we all know that fantasy baseball stats don’t reflect a player’s true performance, so that isn’t enough to tell us Hosmer disappointed. But he did. He posted a -1.1 WAR in 2012 which was among the ten worst in all of baseball among qualified hitters.
Hosmer, the future star, played like Michael Young and Brennan Boesch according to WAR and traditional fantasy stats. Or did he?
I went inside the numbers, and I have no idea what to think. He posted a 1.6 WAR in 2011 in about 75% of a season, so let’s call it a baseline of 2.2 WAR. We would expect him to improve in his second season, so let’s say we’d expect him to put up a 3.0 WAR in 2012.
His true WAR was 4.1 wins below that number. That’s pretty substantial. Let’s try to explain why.
First, UZR doesn’t like his defense (although many expect him to be a top tier gloveman), but it didn’t like his defense much last year. That accounts for maybe 0.5 WAR of the difference.
Hosmer walked more in 2012, but also struckout a bit more. The slash line dropped across the board. The average dropped 60 points, OBP by 30, SLG by more than 100. His BABIP also fell by more than 60 points.
So this would seem to indicate he was making the same amount or more contact, but the contact he was making was substantially worse. Is that true?
His line drive rate is the same and he’s traded 4% of his flyballs for groundballs, but that can’t be it. He hit fewer infield popups. He swung at fewer pitches outside the strikezone.
What happened to Eric Hosmer?
Two explanations emerge. First, Hosmer is hitting the ball just as squarely, but is doing so with substantially less force. I would think that this would result in more popups and fewer line drives, but it’s possible that it doesn’t. Maybe, Hosmer lost power despite getting a year older and a year better.
Or maybe he was extremely unlucky. Maybe he was so unlucky we can’t even believe it. His BABIP dropped dramatically, which is an indicator of luck. But there is skill inside BABIP, maybe that skill deteriorated. We generally think as sample size increases, luck tends to balance out.
But we also know that BABIP takes three years to balance out to the real value. What if Hosmer had the unluckiest of seasons?
It seems unlikely, but we would expect that over the course of many seasons, one player would stand out as supremely unlucky over the course of a season. Wouldn’t simple randomness lead us to at least one strange outlier?
That’s my take. I don’t really know what happened to Eric Hosmer in 2012, but I have images of the 2011 version of him mashing baseballs with tenacity, so I’m not so sure I know what else to think.
Maybe 2013 will provide us with answers. But for now, I’m calling Eric Hosmer’s 2012 season the Unluckiest of All.
Blue Jays Trade for Entire Marlins Roster, Avoid Centerfield Statue
Tonight the Marlins agreed in principle to a deal that would send Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, and John Buck to the Blue Jays for Yunel Escobar and a handful of solid prospects.
This deal was a massive salary dump. They traded their #1 and #2 starters, their shortstop, a solid utility player and one of their catchers for a haul of prospects that does not measure up to the package they sent.
They dumped everyone on their roster that had any kind of salary this year. They did so long before those contracts were up. They did so after one year at a $400 million stadium they begged the city of Miami to build.
This is a farce. The ownership of the Marlins went on and on about how they were changing baseball in Miami and this looked like a franchise ready to break out. Fooled us.
Four bad months of baseball and it was “Sell, sell, sell” in South Beach. What a sham.
Giancarlo Stanton and Ricky Nolasco voiced their displeasure on Twitter tonight. Fans were livid. The owners blew up the Marlins one year into a massive overhaul of the franchise. I can’t imagine anyone going to a game in Miami this year unless you’re a fan of the visiting team.
There ought to be a coup in Miami. This is a joke.
Now if you’re a Blue Jays fan, I’m very happy for you. You just went from solid team in a tough division to contender in a tough division. You upgraded your rotation in a big way. You dramatically improved at short. You’ve added depth. You hardly lost anything you can’t replace.
This is a good day for baseball in Canada and a sad one in Miami. As far as I’m concerned, we’ve lost a generation of young fans in Florida because we’ve allowed crooks to run the Marlins while a gem of an organization in Tampa Bay can’t get a decent stadium despite a phenomenally interesting and successful club.
My heart goes out to anyone who bought a jersey in Miami without the name “Stanton” on it, and even those of you who did, because he’ll be gone soon too. What a sad moment for baseball.
But I rejoice for Blue Jays fans and am excited to see them contend with an Orioles team on the rise and perennially good clubs like New York, Boston, and Tampa Bay.
Tonight the Blue Jays traded for the entire Marlins roster and were smart enough not to ask for the homerun sculpture. The Marlins traded away their entire roster for way less than market value and couldn’t even dump that centerfield monstrosity. That tells you about everything you need to know.
2012 Awards Series: Recap
This week SABR Toothed Tigers handed out our year end awards for Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, and MVP in each league.
Here’s a quick recap.
AL ROY: Mike Trout
NL ROY: Wade Miley
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
NL Cy Young: R.A. Dickey
AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Ryan Braun
The BBWAA hands out their versions on the same awards starting Monday, so here’s what I expect to happen:
AL ROY: Mike Trout
NL ROY: Bryce Harper
AL Cy Young: David Price
NL Cy Young: R.A. Dickey
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
NL MVP: Buster Posey
The BBWAA has made some really terrible choices in the past, so don’t expect them to get it right. Remember when Neftali Feliz beat Austin Jackson for ROY in 2010 despite playing like 1150 fewer innings?
You can find full articles on every award by clicking the 2012 Recaps tab at the top of the page.
2012 Awards Series: AL MVP
Preseason Prediction: Evan Longoria (3B –TB)
I won’t spend much time defending this one, except to say that Evan Longoria is an elite baseball player who played less than half his team’s games this season. He posted a 2.4 WAR and was limited on defense by injury even when he was in the lineup, so I don’t feel bad about my pick. Players get hurt.
He’s one of the best in the game and is just 27 years old. I’ll probably pick him again next year (I picked him in 2010 too).
And the award goes to…
So this is a pretty controversial topic among baseball people, writers, and fans. It really shouldn’t be, but it is. I’ll be upfront and clear throughout this whole thing.
1) I am a giant Tigers fan (see: name of this website)
2) Mike Trout should win the MVP award.
A couple of notes to start. First, I do not believe that the performance of your team should factor in to voting at all. Neither Trout nor Cabrera is responsible for the other 24 guys on his team. You can’t fault or reward someone for the play of others in this type of award.
Two, if I cared about that, Trout still wins. Trout’s team won more games in a better division than Cabrera’s. You cannot tell me that Cabrera’s team winning 88 games in a worse division makes him the MVP over Trout because the Angels won 89 games and did so in against superior competition.
Third, the Triple Crown (leading the league in AVG/HR/RBI) is cool, but it is not a reason to vote for Cabrera. Let’s consider a theoretical example to make this clear:
Player A: .330, 45 HR, 150 RBI.
Player B: .329, 44 HR, 149 RBI.
In this example, Player A wins the Triple Crown narrowly in every category.
Player C: .365, 50 HR, 150 RBI
Player D: .320, 31 HR, 151 RBI
In this example, Player C does not win the Triple Crown.
Clearly, Player A and Player B are essentially the same player by these three statistics. Player C (who didn’t win the Crown) is clearly a superior player to Player D. Therefore, winning the Triple Crown is not a sufficient reason to be MVP, even if RBI wasn’t a terrible stat.
But none of those arguments explain why Trout is the MVP, they simply explain why certain arguments for Cabrera are invalid. Now let’s make the case for Trout.
Let’s start with Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Trout had a lot more. 10.0 to 7.1. If you trust WAR, this discussion is over, but if you’re still supporting Cabrera, I’ll go on. WAR, as we talked about a couple weeks ago, is essentially trying to measure offense, defense, and baserunning in one single number. You may not agree with its formula, but you can’t disagree with its logic. WAR measures value.
So let’s break down each component of these two players. Baserunning first because it’s easy. The advanced stats favor Trout in a big way. Trout stole 45 more bases. Every single scout, evaluator, and human being I’ve talked to says Trout is better on the bases than Cabrera. Point for Trout (we’ll talk how to weight these later).
Now let’s talk defense. Trout is better. UZR gives Trout an 11.4 to -10.0 advantage. In laymen’s terms, we’re talking about a 2.0 WAR difference just with the gloves. This stands up to the eye test.
Trout is an elite defender who made a ton of great plays this season and he did so at one of the most critical defensive positions on the field. Cabrera’s numbers on defense do not look great, but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because I watched him play every day. Cabrera is better than a lot of his critics say, but he’s not great. If we agree he’s league average, he’s still well behind Trout and I think that is generous. Point Trout.
So let’s review by putting up a simple theoretical formula.
Value = O + D + B
If Trout wins a category, we make the value positive, if Cabrera wins it, we make it negative. If the final value is greater than 0, Trout is MVP. If it’s less than 0, Cabrera is. Simple.
So right now we have
Value = O + D(positive) + B(positive)
In order for Cabrera to be MVP, his value on offense has to exceed Trout’s by more than the sum of Trout’s Defense and Baserunning lead.
Let’s go stat by stat. Cabrera his 44 HR, Trout hit 30. Trout scored 129 runs, Cabrera 120. Cabrera drove in 139, Trout 89. Let’s dispense with RBI because that is a function of where you hit in the order. Trout hit first, so 20-25% of his ABs come with no one on base and the rest come with poor hitters ahead of him. Cabrera gets to hit with Austin Jackson ahead of him a lot. Cabrera had 119 more plate appearances with men on base than Trout in 2012 and while he hit for a higher average in those situations, he had a lower average with the bases empty where Trout topped him by around 80 PAs.
Runs work the same way in Trout’s favor, so I’ll dump those too. Let’s head for the slash lines.
Trout: .326/.399/.564
Cabrera: .330/.393/.606
You might notice Cabrera’s batting average is higher, but Trout more than makes up for it by walking more to lead to a higher OBP for Trout. Trout gets on base more. Cabrera does out slug him, however.
But here’s a key point. If we factor in their stolen bases (because singling and stealing second is virtually the same as doubling as far as SLG is concerned), Trout jumps to .651 over Cabrera’s .612
So far, Trout trails in homeruns, but leads in OBP and passes him in SLG if we allow Trout’s legs to play a role (I’ll even discount baserunning entirely from the final decision if we just factor in SB here).
So what we have here is a picture of Miguel Cabrera being less valuable than Trout on offense. Even if we concede that they are the same, which I would be willing to do for the sake of argument, Trout’s defensive value gives him the award.
Let’s look at wOBA for a minute, which is offense without the SB factor I just included. Cabrera .417, Trout .409. By wRC+, tied at 166. Make all the arguments you want, I can’t see any reasoning that tells me Cabrera is enough better on offense to discount Trout’s sizable defensive advantage.
To make that case, you would have to A) Value Defense so little that it is not even worth having one B) Make the case that Cabrera was more valuable on offense (which I’m not sure you can, certainly not by a lot)
Let’s revisit the equation:
Value = O + D + B
If all three are positive, Trout wins. The only way Cabrera can win is if O is more negative than the sum of D and B. I would argue that O is positive, so this is all moot, but even if you find a way to make O negative, it’s not by much.
Trout is the MVP.
Two final things. One, you could say that Trout missed April and should lose points for that. I would tell you that’s true, except that he still led Cabrera by 2.9 WAR (which factors in how much you play). Two, there is one way to argue for Cabrera.
To make the case for Cabrera, you have to make the case that while he wasn’t worth more on the field, he was worth more in the clubhouse. You could say that Cabrera made his teammates better by being around him and therefore is worth more than Trout because Trout did not do that. That is logically consistent, but I don’t believe it to be true. If you could show me evidence, or even circumstantial conjecture in that direction, I would consider it.
I don’t like that this debate became about stat geeks and purists. We aren’t watching a different game. Stat heads are just willing to look at more stats than AVG/HR/RBI/R/SB because there is more information out there. Those stats should not be the holy grail because they miss so much. Walks matter. Defense matters.
Cabrera had a great year, Trout had a better one.
Full Ballot
10. Josh Hamilton (OF – TEX)
9. Ben Zobrist (All 9 Positions – TB)
8. Joe Mauer (C – MIN)
7. Felix Hernandez (SP – SEA)
6. Austin Jackson (OF – DET)
5. Justin Verlander (SP – DET)
4. Adrian Beltre (3B – TEX)
3. Robinson Cano (2B- NYY)
2. Cabrera (3B –DET)
1. Trout (OF – LAA)
Is Now the Time to Trade Justin Upton?
So the pundit echo chamber buzz of the week is about the Diamondbacks listening to offers on Justin Upton, their 25 year old RF coming off a down season. You may remember him from such posts as, “I Thought He Would Win MVP this season.”
Needless to say, I saw a good deal of potential in Upton entering this season and haven’t lost a ton of faith in him after a meh 2012.
But should the Diamondbacks trade him?
As always, it depends. If someone makes a really good offer, you should always take it, but if we’re talking about reasonable offers, I would argue it depends a lot on what players you get back.
That sounds like a stupid answer, but I mean it in a very specific way. You should trade Upton now if you’re getting back big league players. For example, Dave Cameron at Fangraphs evaluated an Upton for Andrus deal. That’s a deal you take.
But if it’s for prospects, I’m waiting.
But not because I’m someone who wants to see proven talent and all that, I’m waiting because this is the wrong time to trade Upton. His value is never going to be lower. He’s coming off a down season that followed a great year. You’re selling low on your most valuable asset if you deal him now.
That’s a fine strategy if the deal you want won’t be available during the season. The Rangers won’t deal Andrus or other big league pieces in July. So if you want an MLB level guy, pull the trigger.
If you want a massive prospect haul, wait. Those guys will be available in July because the team you’re dealing with won’t have to subtract from the big league team to get Upton, and they’ll be more desperate. The options will be more limited.
There are 3-5 OF on the market right now who can be as good as Upton in the short run. At the 2013 deadline, that number should be much lower.
Hold on to Justin Upton because he’s either going to help you contend in 2013 or bring you a bigger return than dealing him now.
Tigers Perspective: Lots of people are asking if the Tigers should target Upton, but I can’t see them doing it. I don’t know for sure what Arizona is asking for, but I think you’re talking about Castellanos, Smyly, and more. That’s a high price to pay for a player coming off a down season. The Tigers have a loaded 3-4-5 combo for the next two seasons and a solid leadoff man. They need depth more than they need star power. Pass.
2012 Awards Series: NL MVP
Preseason Prediction: Justin Upton (OF – ARZ)
So this was a bad one. Upton’s 2.5 WAR didn’t even crack the Top 30 in the NL. Don’t get me wrong, .280/.355/.430 is a solid big league season, it’s just nowhere near MVP levels. The talent is there to win an MVP for Upton, but there’s a lot swirling around him at this point in Arizona, so I’m not sure we’ll even see that freakish peak potential that allowed him to go #1 overall in 2005.
And the award goes to…
I think you could make a case for six players. That’s a large MVP group. Buster Posey (8.0), Ryan Braun (7.9), and David Wright (7.8) are virtually indistinguishable by WAR. I’d also include Chase Headley (7.5), Andrew McCutchen (7.4), and Yadier Molina (6.5).
I’d have a hard time arguing against any of those six. Here’s the quick case for each.
Posey led in WAR, OBP, wRC+, and played good defense at a premium position for a really good team.
Braun was a very close 2nd in WAR, tied in wRC+, led in SLG, wOBA, hit 41 bombs, stole 30 bases, and did it under intense steroid scrutiny.
Wright was a little worse on offense than those two, but made up for it with what UZR called a great season on defense to bring his WAR in line with the leaders. It can’t be ignored that Wright did this on a team much less talented than most of his rivals.
Headley is a fun one because he put up great offensive numbers at Petco Park and only missed one game all season. 31 homeruns and 17 steals from the Padres 3B to go along with solid defense. The park holds him back a little on the more conventional side and he’ll lose votes because his team wasn’t great, but Headley should be in this conversation.
McCutchen almost singlehandedly made the Pirates relevant in 2012 and came in 3rd in wRC+. The defensive metrics hate him on defense, which puzzles me a little, so his overall WAR is a little depressed, and in a race this close I’m not sure how to judge it.
Finally, Molina put up phenomenal offensive numbers for a catcher (really for anyone) and continued to be one of the most imposing defenders in the game. The 6.5 WAR isn’t quite on par with the rest of the bunch, but he loses some value because he only players 140 games a year as a catcher.
You can dive into all the statistical details yourselves because there are really too many players to really evaluate in this space, so I’ll give you my take in a crowded field.
I’m hearing from most people in the mainstream media and a lot of more insider types that Posey is likely to run away with this because of his second half surge to lead a good team to the playoffs. That’ll push him over for most voters.
I’m going to take Braun. It’s essentially a tie from any sort of statistical measure, so you have to make a value judgment based on less than objective criteria. All of these guys deserve it, but I’m voting for Braun because he deserves it after his name was tarnished by a faulty drug test last fall.
Braun tested positive for elevated testosterone, but the testing procedure was breached and he won the appeal. However, just the association has put Braun on trial with the public and I’m impressed at how he had another great season even after he “got caught” using steroids.
I don’t buy into the argument that you have to be on a playoff team to win MVP, so that isn’t in my calculus. Braun had a great year and did so while under a microscope than the others weren’t. Granted, points gets to Posey for coming back from the brutal ankle injury and lots of love for Wright, Headley, McCutchen, and Molina as well, but I’m behind Braun.
Full Ballot:
10. Jayson Heyward (OF – ATL)
9. Aaron Hill (2B – ARZ)
8. Clayton Kershaw (SP – LAD)
7. R.A. Dickey (SP – NYM)
6. Headley (3B – SD)
5. Molina (C – STL)
4. Wright (3B – NYM)
3. McCutchen (OF – PIT)
2. Posey (C – SF)
1. Braun (OF – MIL)
2012 Awards Series: NL Cy Young
Preseason Prediction: Cole Hamels (LHP – Philadelphia Phillies)
Hamels had a strong season in 2012 for the disappointing Phillies, posting a 4.5 WAR (good for 7th in the NL) and signing a monster contract extension. He went 17-6 in 215.1 innings with a 3.05 ERA and 3.30 FIP. The strikeout rate was excellent at 9.03 next to a great walk rate of 2.17. The Phillies lefthander didn’t have a good enough year to earn my Cy Young praise, but he had a very strong season and should be acknowledged for it.
And the award goes to…
Just like in the AL, three strong candidates emerge for the 2012 NL Cy Young award, but the SABR Toothed Tigers have to give it to someone who sabermetrics can’t quite understand; R.A. Dickey.
Dickey had a phenomenal season by most standards, but WAR doesn’t like him as much as our other two finalists, Clayton Kershaw and Gio Gonzalez. There is a simple reason for this, however. FIP (one of the biggest drivers of WAR) doesn’t know what to do with knuckleballers because they are so rare and have different results profiles than a standard hurler. That said, Dickey was still 6th in the NL in WAR in 2012.
Dickey’s 20-6 record doesn’t mean anything but he tossed 233.2 innings and posted solid strikeout (8.86) and walk numbers (2.08) to go along with his strong 2.73 ERA. His FIP was elevated, but that’s because FIP doesn’t understand him.
The only thing Gonzalez did better than Dickey was strike hitters out, but he threw way fewer innings walked more and had a higher ERA. WAR likes him better, but that’s the knuckleball problem and nothing else.
Kershaw is the strong contender. He tossed six fewer innings, had a higher K rate and higher BB rate, and posted a lower ERA. The WAR spread is +0.9 WAR for Kershaw, but I can’t help wonder how much that gap would close if FIP understood knuckleballers. It would at least close some.
I think Dickey and Kershaw are both good choices, but it’s hard not to give the tie breaker to the guy who threw more innings for a worse team and did so in such a fun way. Dickey was a great story and I’ll always give the tiebreaker to the better story. Plus it is hard not to love Dickey’s NL leading 5 complete games.
We can find plenty of worthy arms in the NL, but R.A. Dickey is this year’s best.
Full Ballot
5. Cole Hamels (LHP – Philadelphia Phillies)
4. Cliff Lee (LHP – Philadelphia Phillies)
3. Gio Gonzalez (LHP – Washington Nationals)
2. Clayton Kershaw (LHP – Los Angeles Dodgers)
1. R.A. Dickey (RHP – New York Mets)
2012 Awards Series: AL Cy Young
Preseason Prediction: Justin Verlander (RHP- Detroit Tigers)
Verlander entered 2012 in the prime of his career as the reigning AL Cy Young and MVP while looking to cement his place as baseball’s best starting pitcher.
And the award goes to…
Verlander. Three AL pitchers are in the discussion for this honor, but Verlander comes out on top and deserves to win his second consecutive Cy Young.
He threw 238.1 innings, posted a 9.03 K/9 along with his 2.27 BB/9, and ended the season with a 2.64 ERA and 2.94 FIP. All of this comes together in a 6.8 WAR which is the best mark in the AL and in all of baseball in 2012.
But I don’t want WAR to be the end of the discussion because it does a disservice to the other candidates worthy of mention, David Price and Felix Hernandez.
Both Price and Hernandez had great seasons and will finish a strong 2nd and 3rd on my ballot, but Verlander was better. At this point in history, we’re smart enough not to look a pitcher’s W/L record as a measure of value. You can win a lot of games if you aren’t that good and you can lose a bunch of games if you’re great depending on how your team performs around you. Cases in point this year are Phil Hughes’ 16 wins and Cliff Lee’s 6 wins.
Let’s start with ERA. Verlander trailed only Price in this season with a 2.64 ERA to Price’s 2.56. That’s a very small margin, but you have to lean in Verlander’s direction when you consider how poor Verlander’s defense was.
The difference is literally only two earned runs across the course of the entire season. Certainly we can all agree the Rays outdefended the Tigers by two runs over the course of each pitcher’s 30+ starts. FIP agrees by giving Verlander a 2.94 to 3.05 edge. Felix does well by this measure at 2.84.
Turning to strikeouts Verlander leads the pack with 9.03 per 9 to Price’s 8.74 and Hernandez’s 8.65. Price sports the highest walk rate of the pack at 2.52.
This isn’t the clearest of choices at this point. Verlander has the best K rate, the middle BB rate, and the middle ERA and FIP. But the highest WAR. He threw the most innings and did so in front of the worst defense. All three men could lay some claim to the award, but it has to be Verlander.
It has to be Verlander because he threw the most innings out of the group and because he had the worst defense. WAR says Verlander added the most value while he was on the field of the three, but what it doesn’t account for his how his extra workload took the stress off his bullpen, which could then be well rested to support the other members of the staff. Verlander pitched deeper into games and gave the rest of the staff what it needed to perform best in the start before his and the start after his.
He faced 956 batters this season and had a lot of innings extended by poor defense. Imagine how much deeper into games he could have gone if he had Brendan Ryan playing SS behind him like Felix did.
This is not an open and shut case. There are arguments to be made for Price and Hernandez, but Verlander tops Price for me on innings, Ks, BBs, FIP, and defense and Hernandez by innings, Ks, and defense.
It was another great year for the Tigers’ ace and it should end with more hardware on his mantle.
Full Ballot:
5. Max Scherzer (RHP – DET)
4. Chris Sale (LHP – CWS)
3. Price (LHP – TB)
2. Hernandez (RHP – SEA)
1. Verlander (RHP – DET)
New English D 