2012 Awards Series: Rookies of the Year
With the 2012 season behind us, it’s time for some housekeeping here at SABR Toothed Tigers. Shortly before the World Series, we published my 2012 predictions as heard on The Guy Show for how the divisions and awards would play out.
Now it’s time to hand out some hardware.
Rookies of the Year:
American League
Preseason Prediction: Matt Moore (LHP-Tampa Bay Rays)
Moore was one of the top prospects in baseball in 2011 no matter who you asked and burst onto the scene in grand fashion in the postseason last year. He was a popular pick heading into the season and I certainly thought he’d be a top contender for the award. Moore had some growing pains in 2012, but he actually did have a respectable season.
Moore made 31 starts and posted an 11-11 record in 177.1 innings with a K/9 of 8.88. He walked too many (4.11 per 9IP), but a 3.81 ERA and 3.91 FIP is a strong season for a young rookie lefthander. He posted a 2.3 WAR which was 5th among AL rookie pitchers (4th if you don’t count the seasoned Yu Darvish).
Moore’s season was nothing to sneeze at, but it was a far cry from earning him AL Rookie of the Year honors.
The Award Goes To…
Mike Trout. Obviously. Other rookies had good seasons. Darvish, Jarrod Parker, and Tommy Milone from the mound. Yoenis Cespedes from the batter’s box. But, seriously, Mike Trout ran circles around everyone in this year’s award.
Trout posted an historic 10.0 WAR in 2012 which not only put him atop all American League rookies, it put him above every single player in Major League Baseball. Only three rookies have ever top 8.0 WAR, and none have ever exceeded Trout’s 10.0. The voting will be unanimous when the BBWAA hands out the award, but let’s just hit some numbers quickly just for good measure.
Trout led AL rookies in the following categories (these are just the ones I felt like looking up): hits, homeruns, runs, runs batted in, batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, weighted on base average (wOBA), weighted runs created plus (wRC+), UZR, BSR (baserunning metric), and WAR. Pretty open and shut if you ask me.
The full ballot looks like this:
3. Yoenis Cespedes (OF-Oak)
2. Yu Darvish (SP-TEX)
1. Mike Trout (OF-LAA)
National League:
Preseason Prediction: Devin Mesoraco (C-Cincinnati Reds)
Mesoraco was another popular pick in 2012, so I was not the only one to miss wildly. Mesoraco played in 54 games and posted a pretty terrible 0.1 WAR. The .212/.288/.352 slash line doesn’t help either. The defense was unremarkable and the offense didn’t do anything to make up for it.
I wouldn’t call Mesoraco a bust by any means, but the 24 year old backstop will need to find his form if he wants to catch 120+ games next season. His minor league numbers certainly speak to his talent, so there’s plenty still to like about the Reds catcher.
The Award Goes To…
This one was a little tougher. Okay, a lot tougher. Two clear candidates emerged in my book: Bryce Harper and Wade Miley. Todd Frazier was an option as well, but he’ll have to settle for 3rd place.
Rookie of the Year can be a difficult award to hand out because you’re often comparing players who have totally different jobs. Harper hits second for a contending team and Miley is a starter on a middle of the pack club.
Their WARs were nearly identical at 4.9 for Harper and 4.8 for Miley. Harper played 139 games, got 597 plate appearances and turned those into the following statistical profile:
22 HR, 59 RBI, 98 R, 18 SB, .270/.340/.477, .352 wOBA, 121 wRC+, 9.9 UZR.
Miley made 29 starts and 3 relief appearance totaling 194.2 innings. His line looks something like this:
16-11, 6.66 K/9, 1.71 BB/9, 3.33 ERA, 3.15 FIP
Again, their WARs are almost identical and they have a totally different role. Statistically, it’s hard to really separate the two. I’m going to throw my support to Wade Miley for the following reason, but a vote for Harper is absolutely warranted.
Harper excelled amid a good team having a great year, while Miley picked up the slack for a decent rotation. Miley was the Dbacks best starter by a good margin. Harper was the Nats second best bat, but they also had such a great staff to back them up.
There’s nothing particularly objective about that reasoning, but it’s hard to make an objective case for either of them. I feel pretty confident that Harper and Miley should be 1st and 2nd on the NL ROY ballot, but I really don’t know what order they should be in.
The full ballot looks like this:
3. Todd Frazier (3B, 1B, OF – CIN)
2. Bryce Harper (OF- WSH)
1. Wade Miley (SP-ARZ)
Check back Wednesday for Cy Young winners.
MLB Win Totals Project the Electoral College
Since SABR Toothed Tigers is run by a Political Science graduate student, we couldn’t ignore the presidential election. However, this is a non-partisan site that doesn’t want anyone to be put off, so we’re releasing our Electoral map based entirely on baseball.
Here’s how it works. We take the swing states as listed at 270towin.com (NV, CO, IA, WI, MI, OH, PA, NH, VA, NC, and FL) and apply baseball! The non-swing states go to the candidate that should win them and the swing states are determined with a simple formula.
That formula is this: Whichever baseball team(s) dominate(s) that state’s television viewing is assigned to that state. So New Hampshire is the Red Sox and the Pirates and Phillies are Pennsylvania, etc.
Sum(2012 Wins) – Sum(2008 Wins) = State win total
If state win total is positive, Obama wins.
If state win total is negative, Romney wins.
Basically, are you better off this year than you were when Obama was elected. Here are the results.
This specific formula is probably unlikely if you ask someone who actually understands politics, but most cable news channels don’t put those people on TV anyway, so our view is just as valid as theirs.
Based on the MLB Win Total Model here at STT, we project President Obama will be reelected 289-249.
2012 Season in Review: Houston Astros
55-107, 6th in the NL Central
The Astros started 2012 preparing for a bleak year and it only got worse. They dealt everyone on the roster who had any kind of name recognition who wasn’t injured and were running out a cast of no names for much of the second half.
For proof, I randomly selected the August 17th starting lineup.
Altuve 2B
Green SS
Pearce 1B
Maxwell LF
Francisco RF
Barnes CF
Castro C
Gonzalez 3B
Keuchel P
I don’t think I’m exaggerating when I say 1) That doesn’t even look like a good AAA lineup 2) I don’t know the first names of half of those players 3) I didn’t know who two thirds of those people were until this season. (This paragraph should be emphasized with the fact that compared to the common fan I know who everyone is.)
But a very dark 2012 isn’t reason to fret in Houston. The club is actually moving in the right direction. New GM Jeff Luhnow scorched the earth of the 2012 season to fill his minor league rosters with capable players. He added a lot of talent, and while not much of it is elite, the Astros can now look forward to some decent players coming up through the system.
They also drafted Carlos Correa #1 overall this year and the 17 year old SS has star potential. There is a lot of work to be done through player development, scouting, and Free Agency, but the team is moving forward.
Brad Mills lost the managerial spot late in the year and 2012 Nationals’ 3B coach Bo Porter will assume the role in 2013.
While 55 wins is essentially a replacement level team (i.e. how a AAA team would play in MLB), the Astros weren’t even trying to win this season. They were looking forward 3 or 4 years. This was a franchise in free fall the last couple years and they are now back on the long road to relevance.
They had just three players post WARs above the 2.0 threshold we normally consider MLB starter level (and one was Jed Lowrie who missed much of the second half). 2012 was dismal year on the field but a good one in the front office.
I’d be optimistic for their prospects next season, except they’re moving to the AL West. Moving from baseball’s 5th best division to its best division from 2012, not to mention having to contend with the DH, is going to be an adjustment.
It’s going to be a challenge for the Astros in 2013, but it has to be better than 2012.
2012 Grade: F
Early 2013 Projection: 65-97
It’s Good to be Zach Greinke
It should come as no surprise to anyone that Zach Greinke is the top starting pitcher on the market this offseason. He may not turn out to be the best value, but he is the best. It helps that Cole Hamles and Matt Cain signed extensions this season, but that doesn’t take away from how good Greinke is. He made my list of aces last month and I’m comfortable saying he would be the #1 or #2 starter on every team except the Phillies.
Most reports seem to indicate Greinke will fetch a deal of 5-6 years worth $95-$120 million. His most recent employer, the Angels are heavily in the running, but every MLB will likely kick the tires. He would make every club better, it will just be a choice of how much you can afford to spend on your rotation.
Some in the media have speculated Greinke won’t fit in a big market because of a history of anxiety and depression, and what is clearly an introverted personality. I think their view is wrong in the sense that he couldn’t excel there, but he might choose a smaller media market because he will enjoy it more.
I think all other things equal, he’d avoid Boston or New York, but won’t rule them out based solely on the media narrative that he can’t handle them.
So if we agree Greinke will command a deal of the size I predicted and that every team in baseball would benefit from having him, who are the likely Greinke suitors?
The Angels are the obvious choice because they jettisoned Santana and Haren to free up the money. They loved him down the stretch there and he would fit in well with Weaver and Wilson going forward. The Angels have the resources, the need, and the familiarity to make them a player.
The Rangers make sense, too. They have the payroll flexibility and could use a reliable frontman instead of their revolving #1 spot of the last few years (Darvish, Holland, Harrison, Lee, etc). The Yankees and Red Sox both need pitching, but Boston seems better able to afford it than New York considering the Yankees’ desire to get under the luxury tax cap by 2014. The Orioles and Blue Jays should be in, but maybe not at the asking price.
Many speculated that the Royals could reunite with Greinke, but adding Ervin Santana’s $13 million seems to have indicated they won’t be making a push. The White Sox could be interested given their push to trade for him in July, but it’s hard to say if their recent extension to Peavy will block out too much money in the short term.
In the NL, the Braves, Cubs, and Dodgers seem like possible fits. Obviously we learned last year that the Mystery Team is usually involved, but this seems like a pretty accurate list of teams that will play big on the right hander.
For me, the team that signs Greinke will be in Los Angeles. It will be the Angels or the Dodgers. Both have the money and the need and both are good environments to pitch in. There will be a lot of teams involved, so predicting the landing spot is tough, but I’d take these two clubs against the field.
It’s not every year that you can add an ace to your staff through Free Agency, and it’s not every year that the market is as soft as it is this year. Translation? It’s good to be Zach Greinke right now.
Haren for Marmol? Um…what?
Baseball was having fun with us yesterday. Yesterday afternoon reports broke that the Angels traded RHP Dan Haren to the Cubs for RHP Carlos Marmol. My verbatim reaction on Twitter was “Um…what?”
Haren, coming off a down year in 2012, had posted seven straight 4.0 WAR seasons before that and was owed $15 million for 2013. Marmol is due $10 million next season and is coming off two poor seasons and has a career walk rate of over 6.00 per 9.
Let’s assume that this trade played out as reported and the Cubs backed out at the last minute. The Angels preferred saving $5 million and adding Marmol over Haren to saving $12 million (because Haren is owed a buyout) and not getting Marmol.
Again, um what? What the what?
That is crazy. Again, according to reports, THE CUBS PULLED OUT. The Cubs were getting a number 3 or 4 starter at worst and a number 1 or 2 at best for a $5 million price that included not having to have Carlos Marmol on your team and said no.
So the Angels proposed a stupid trade and the Cubs said no. Baseball was having some fun with us. The Cubs probably figured that the Angels would decline Haren’s option (which they did last night) and could perhaps sign him for less annual value if they waited until Free Agency opens today. They’re gambling that Haren will sign with them for less than $15 million AAV, which is probably around what he’ll sign for.
But that scenario still leaves them paying $10 million to Marmol in 2013 and doesn’t guarantee them Haren.
I can’t see an explanation here that makes any sense other than that the reports we heard we simply wrong. I guess both teams could be stupid, but what are the odds that neither team in this situation was like… “wait a second…?”
Either way, Dan Haren is a Free Agent allowed to sign with any club. The Angels have money to throw at Greinke and the Cubs might get a shot to pay him a little less (maybe).
As teams start negotiating, Haren will be one of the more coveted players after Greinke, Josh Hamilton, Anibal Sanchez, BJ Upton, Michael Bourn, and maybe a couple others. He is entering his age 32 season and is coming off a down season, but if you’re willing to bet on a bounce back, Haren could be one of the best values this offseason.
The Cubs will be in the picture along with the Yankees and Red Sox according to reports. I’m sure other clubs are in the mix, but those are the names that are out there. To me, the Blue Jays, Orioles, Royals, Brewers, and Dodgers should be interested.
As Free Agency gets going, we’ll have full coverage and baseball will hopefully continue to have fun with us.
The Curious (Free Agent) Case of Josh Hamilton
Free Agency begins in earnest this weekend in MLB and one of the most interesting potential Free Agents is OF Josh Hamilton. He’s had really strong seasons in four of six seasons in the big leagues and is coming off an uneven, but ultimately above average 2012.
And then there are the Hamilton qualifiers. He’s entering Free Agency in his age 32 season (much later than a premier guy ever should) and he has a history of substance abuse and injuries. He has an MVP award and many playoff appearances, but when you throw this whole thing into a blender it turns out a product we’ve never seen before.
Josh Hamilton is the least typical FA we’ve ever seen. Former #1 pick, amazing tools, several good seasons. Old, injury prone, troubled past, terrible plate discipline, terrible middle part of 2012. What do you make of this if you’re an MLB club? What is the market for Hamilton and what should he reasonably ask for? Who takes the plunge?
To start off, Hamilton’s career WAR numbers look like this.
2007: 2.6 (337 PA)
2008: 4.1
2009: 1.4 (365 PA)
2010: 8.4
2011: 4.1
2012: 4.4
So if we’re willing to say that 2009 was the outlier and 2010 is the peak, Hamilton looks like a pretty stead 3.5-5.0 WAR player. That’s a tremendously valuable guy. Not quite perennially MVP, but he should make All-Star teams and hit in the middle of your order. But those numbers obscure underlining problems.
Obviously the substance abuse itself is worrisome, all other things being equal, but what would concern me most is that Hamilton did damage to his body in his early 20s that is going to catch up with him more and more as he ages. By traditional standards, Hamilton is already over his peak age as a baseball player and my guess would be his years of abuse will make that aging curve more problematic.
Additionally, Hamilton has put up some monster numbers, but has a really bad approach at the plate. No one is baseball swung at more pitches outside the strike zone in 2012. Actually, no one swung more period than Hamilton. In a lot of plate appearances I watched this season, Hamilton looked disinterested and swung at everything. If the ball made it to the plate, Hamilton was hacking. It cost his team in the middle and late part of the season as teams learned not to throw him strikes. This showed up in a big way because the Rangers lost the division by one game, so any marginal win would have been worth a lot to the team. If Hamilton could have improved his approach enough to win one more game, the Rangers would have made the playoffs instead of losing in the play in game.
So let’s talk contract details if we only look at what Hamilton has going for him. I’d wager to say an all good news Josh Hamilton is looking at a 7 year, $150 million deal. That pays him about $21 million per season which is right on par with what teams tend to pay per WAR. However, this is a good year to be a Free Agent and a lot of teams would pay handsomely to someone with Hamilton’s tools because the next best option might be BJ Upton. Let’s inflate Hamilton’s deal to 7 years, $170 million.
Now let’s evaluate Hamilton with only what he has wrong with him. He’s 32 and had some really big red flags pop up on the field this year, not to mention the potential aging problems we discussed earlier. You’re aware of his skill, but the other stuff is big. I’d say 3 years, $45 million. You want a shorter deal and fewer dollars, but you recognize he could give you 3 4.0 WAR seasons and are willing to gamble.
So how do those visions come together? Obviously the soft market is a big plus for Hamilton’s value. He doesn’t have Matt Holliday and Ryan Braun to compete with, so the dollars go up. When he’s on, the reward can be very high. MVP high. That pushes the dollars up. But he’s old, even if you are willing to offer a high yearly value, you don’t want to commit that much to a 38 year old Hamilton. Was the terrible July 2012 an outlier or a preview?
My sense is that someone with enough cash and enough guts will push north. 5 years, $100 million seems reasonable. But I’d set the range at 3 years, $50 million to 7 years, $170 million. That’s a wide space to drive a contract through. I can’t remember another Free Agent who could command such a strange distribution of offers.
If I’m a GM, I pass on Hamilton unless the price is in the bottom of the distribution. I only want Hamilton if everyone else undervalues him. I would not pay Josh Hamilton what he should earn. I would only pay him less, because he’s asking me to trust him that he can maintain his level of play for a long term deal.
If Hamilton and his agent walk in and ask for 7 years, my answer is no unless it’s for $80 million or less. 6 years I’ll go for $100 million. 5 years $90 million. 4 years I’ll go $75-80 million. If you picture this, I’m basically saying the more years he wants the less I’ll offer in AAV. I can’t risk $25 million to 2018 Hamilton. I just can’t.
So where does this leave us? Who makes sense for Hamilton?
MLB Trade Rumors postulated that the Rangers will end up winning the bidding after other teams show Hamilton that they won’t pay the big dollars. I think there are a couple teams who intrigue me as possible suitors (with percentages).
White Sox (25%)
Rangers (22%)
Other (11%)
Brewers (10%)
Mariners (10%)
Orioles (5%)
Red Sox (5%)
Yankees (5%)
Phillies (5%)
Blue Jays (2%)
Mainly this is all pretty much the prevailing opinion except for the White Sox. I think they make a ton of sense. There’s room in the OF. Konerko and Dunn are both in the last two years of their deals with Konerko closing in on retirement. Konerko is a FA after 2013, Dunn after 2014. Rios after 2014. Alexei Rameriz is the only position player signed into 2015 with any sort of dollar value (and John Danks is the only pitcher).
Viciedo is a very tradable player if you want to go Hamilton, De Aza, Rios across the outfield, or you could go Viciedo, Hamilton, Rios and find buyers for De Aza. He’s not blocked in 2013 in the OF. If you look to 2014, if Konerko retires, Hamilton can play the OF if he’s able or move to DH with Dunn going to 1B. If Hamilton can wait until 2015 to break down, the DH spot is wide open.
The payroll is there. The spot is there. The need is there. The White Sox are a team in the 80-85 win zone where one big player could make a difference and they might just be crazy enough and gutsy enough to go for it.
I think it’s more likely Hamilton signs in Not Chicago than in Chicago, but if you told me to pick one team, that’s the team to watch. Hamilton is a unique Free Agent, so it’s anyone’s guess.
Trade Grade: Royals Nab Santana
The Royals really like buying low on starting pitching and they did it again today. Ervin Santana joins the AL Central as Kansas City sends minor league lefty Brandon Sisk the other way to the Angels.
Santana had a very poor season in 2012 and is owed $13 million in 2013, but the Royals were willing to gamble to improve their pitching staff in hopes of becoming a relevant baseball team in one of the weaker divisions in the sport.
He posted a -0.9 WAR this season to go along with his 5.16 ERA and 5.63 FIP. In 2010 and 2011 he was above 2.0 WAR and had ERAs under 4.00 to pair with his very strong 5.8 WAR in 2008.
Santana’s had four 200+ inning seasons in his career and is entering his age 30 season. While I certainly wouldn’t offer him a long term deal, a one year contract is of pretty low risk for someone who can bring some upside and has no-hit stuff when he’s right.
From a player for player standpoint, the risk was worth taking, the real question is if $13 million is worth it for someone coming off such a bad season. Obviously the Royals think 2012 was an outlier and the real Santana is more like the 2010 and 2011 versions. The Angels take the other side.
It’s hard to imagine that this is the best way to spend $13 million this offseason for a club that needs multiple starters to really explode onto the scene, but if they are willing to expand the payroll it’s a risk worth taking.
Bruce Chen, Luis Mendoza, Felipe Paulino, and Danny Duffy are the other four members of the Royals projected rotation at this point, but Chris Volstad and others will enter spring training with their sights on a spot.
Dayton Moore and the rest of the Royals front office needed to target starting pitching this offseason given that their top two pitchers by WAR both came out of the bullpen in 2012. Santana is a risk worth taking if they’re going to increase payroll. If they’re allocating most of their offseason budget on Santana, however, I’d give them a failing grade.
On the Angels side, they got a live body for a player they didn’t want anymore, so you can’t really complain. They’ll likely use some of that Santana cash to bid heavily on Zach Greinke.
Free Agency starts Saturday, so stay tuned for updates.
Goofy Leaderboards: Pace
I have a new favorite stat. Well, it’s not really a stat as much as it is a device most people wear on their wrists.
“Pace” is how Fangraphs labels it. It’s the average amount of time a batter or pitcher spends between pitchers. I love this because I value quick workers. I love how fast Fister works and hitters who DON’T STEP OUT BETWEEN EVERY PITCH!
You can tell I feel strongly. Let’s take a look at some numbers.
Position Players – Slowest (among qualifiers)
1. Carlos Pena, 28.0 average seconds between pitches
2. Hanley Ramirez, 26.7
3. Robinson Cano, 26.6
4. Brandon Phillips, 26.3
5. Derek Jeter, 25.0
6. Brennan Boesch, 24.9
7. Ryan Braun, 24.9
8. Danny Espinosa, 24.8
9. David DeJesus, 24.7
10. Allen Craig, 24.7
Position Players – Fastest
1. Michael Bourn, 19.2
2. Dustin Ackley, 19.3
3. Jimmy Rollins, 19.5
4. Jose Reyes, 19.7
5. Kelly Johnson, 19.7
6. Zack Cozart, 20.0
7. Austin Jackson, 20.0
8. Jason Kipnis, 20.0
9. Ben Revere, 20.1
10. Mike Aviles, 20.1
Starting Pitchers – Slowest (among qualifiers)
1. Clay Buchholz, 25.6
2. Josh Beckett, 24.6
3. Jeremy Hellickson, 24.6
4. Ryan Vogelsong, 24.5
5. Yu Darvish, 24.5
Starting Pitchers – Fastest
1. Mark Buehrle, 17.2
2. R.A. Dickey, 17.7
3. Matt Harrison, 17.9
4. Jon Niese, 18.2
5. Clayton Richard, 18.2
Relievers – Slowest (at least 50 IP)
1. Jose Valverde, 32.8
2. Joel Peralta, 32.3
3. Jonathan Broxton, 31.8
4. Jonathan Papelbon, 30.3
5. Rafael Bentancourt, 29.5
I don’t think we have any revelations on these lists, but it’s sure fun to take a look at some of these numbers. Boesch is the slowest Tiger, Jackson the fastest. Valverde is the slowest pitcher and Fister checks in as the fastest Tiger arm at 19.2.
In case you’re wondering, MLB rules state that when the bases are empty, a pitcher must throw a pitch within 20 seconds of the last one. So either some of these guys pitch in a lot of traffic or the boys in blue aren’t enforcing the rule very well. I’ve only seen it called once in my life (against Bentancourt).
Be sure to check back next week for another goofy leaderboard.
2012 World Series Storylines
With the Fall Classic upon us let’s take a look at the top storylines for the series and end with a completely subjective prediction that should only be used for entertainment purposes.
1) The Tigers Rotation: The Tigers’ starters have rolled through the postseason with a 1.02 ERA. Small sample size and struggling offenses? Sure, but 1.02 is hard to do no matter what. Led by reigning Cy Young and MVP, Justin Verlander, the rotation is stacked. Fister, Sanchez, and Scherzer all range from above average to fringe-elite starters and are all pitching extremely well right now. If the Tigers get the same kind of pitching they got in the ALDS and ALCS in the World Series, the Tigers will coast to a title.
2) The Bullpens: So the Tigers bullpen, not pitching very well right now. Not pitching very well at all. Maybe that’s harsh. Benoit and Valverde aren’t pitching well right now. Coke, Dotel, Alburquerque, Smyly, and Porcello have been solid in the postseason. After two meltdowns, Leyland has unofficially removed Valverde from the closer role and gone with a Phil Coke-by-committee approach that has worked out well. I’m an advocate for closer-by-committee for all teams and at all times of the season, so I think this approach will work for them, but they still have to execute when they are called upon. The Giants on the other hand, have a strong pen with Lopez, Casilla, and Romo in the late innings and Lincecum available as a super reliever. Bottom line? Score on the Tigers pen and the Giants starters if you want to win.
3) Delmon Young: It’s weird just writing that. But Young has hit in a big way during this postseason and last. There’s a good deal of disagreement about whether or not postseason performance is a skill set, but whether it’s luck or ability, Delmon is delivering for the Tigers. If he continues to hit well behind Jackson, Cabrera, and Fielder, it will be hard for San Francisco to limit the Tigers to the two runs they need to if they are going to face those Tigers’ starters. The other Delmon angle is that he has to play LF in Games 1, 2, 6*, and 7*(*if necessary). Since coming to Detroit, Young has been a terrible OF. No one who played more than 150 innings in LF this year posted a worse UZR/150. Granted, Delmon wasn’t asked to play the field very much and was a full time DH, but he’s about to man the position for at least two of the most critical games of the season against a team that puts the ball in play. Hopefully, the Tigers’ arms can punch out enough hitters to limit the Delmon liability.
4) The Fans: Both cities have high energy fans that create a rowdy atmosphere. Both cities have great parks. I don’t know that it will affect the outcome, but it will be cool to watch on TV.
5) The Managers: Bruce Bochy and Jim Leyland are different managers, but also heavily criticized in different ways. Bochy thinks walks are outs in disguise (not my joke, but I can’t remember who told it) and Leyland thinks RBIs are baseball’s more critical stat. That said, both managers have good to excellent reputations as leaders of men, which will certainly be on display with a championship on the line. Most critically, how Leyland has handled the situation with Valverde could result in a giant meltdown or a champagne celebration. Certainly something to watch. Additionally, Leyland will be faced with the tough call on when to pinch hit for his frontline starters, and how he responds will dictate a lot that happens in this series.
6) The Tigers Defense: It wasn’t good this season. It was pretty strong in the ALCS. If it’s solid, that’s a huge swing in the Tigers’ favor.
7) Marco Scutaro: The dude is on fire. If that Marco Scutaro shows up, the Giants might just break through on the Tigers. If he doesn’t, it will be tough for them.
I’m expecting a good series and these teams haven’t seen very much of each other in the last several years and have never met in the World Series. Both clubs will be relying a lot on scouting reports instead of experience with each other, and I think that will make for a very close and unpredictable series. (As a side note, Verlander has said in the past he relies heavily on past at bats versus hitters as opposed to video)
I think this is an objective pick, but I obviously have a strong rooting interest.
Tigers in 6. Austin Jackson WS MVP.
NLCS Game 7: Predicting the Unpredictable
Tonight, Matt Cain and Kyle Lohse will face off in Game 7 of the NLCS. The winning team will host the Tigers on Wednesday in Game 1 of the World Series. That much, barring a rainout, we can be sure of.
But not much else. Baseball is a very unpredictable game. Great teams lose one-third of their games during the regular season and horrible teams win one-third of their games. This year, baseball’s best team lost 39.5% of their games and baseball’s worst team won 34%!
The old adage reminds us that “it’s what you do with the other 1/3 that counts.”
Yet in October, in a match-up of teams who finished the regular season within six games of each other, you can’t really play the long run percentages. Both teams are starting their best pitcher over the last six months. Both teams have won 3 of the last 6 meetings over the last eight days.
The best evidence you can cite if you’re making a prediction is that the Giants are at home and they are facing the Cardinals, who performed worse on the road this year. Other than that, this is a coin flip.
In the playoffs, it’s my view that every single game is a coin flip because all of the teams are roughly equivalent. Even most series are coin flips. You hope your pitchers execute and you pray the other guys’ don’t.
While that may be an oversimplification and you can definitely do things to maximize your chances of winning and minimize them (see Washington, Ron), mostly You Can’t Predict Baseball (@cantpredictball).
Whatever, let’s try anyway!
Why the Giants Will Win
Matt Cain is better than Kyle Lohse, even if it was pretty close in 2012. Plus, the Giants are at home and have won the last two games. Despite how odd this sounds as well, Bochy is probably a better skipper than Matheny and can run out a better army of relievers. The Cards may have a good offense, but AT&T Park is where offense goes to die (apologies to Safeco Field, you can’t even win this).
Why the Cardinals Will Win
Have you watched baseball in the last twelve months? The Cardinals always win elimination games and they do so in spectacular fashion. It’s practically the only thing we can really be sure of anymore.
The Gist
I think the Cardinals edge this one out. Let’s say 4-2 with an 8th inning 3-run homerun from someone weird, like I don’t know, Skip Schumaker. That just feels right. Feels very Cardinals.
So sit back, DVR the debate, and enjoy sudden death, winner take all baseball. There are only 5 to 8 games left in 2012, and I’m not quite ready for it to be over. Except for Joe Buck and Tim McCarver. I’m ready for them to be over.
New English D 