Category Archives: MLB Posts

Trade Grade: Heath Bell, Chris Young on the Move

By Neil Weinberg on | Leave a comment

Because today is the Day of No Baseball ©, anything remotely baseball related is getting prime space on SABR Toothed Tigers. That anything is a three way trade between the Diamondbacks, Marlines, and A’s.

Today, the Marlins sent RP Heath Bell to the Diamondbacks in a three team deal that shipped Diamondbacks’ OF Chris Young to Oakland and A’s minor league infielder Yordy Cabrera to Miami. Cliff Pennington is also coming to Arizona as part of the trade. Cash considerations were also involved.

While the monetary details are critical in evaluating this deal, let’s take a look at how each team came out of this assuming the Marlins ended up defraying some of the cost from Oakland.

Miami Marlins

Gave up: Heath Bell

Got: Yordy Cabrera

The Marlins signed Bell to a 3 year, $25 million deal last winter during their winter meetings binge that included a $9 million team option for 2015 that becomes automatic if Bell meets certain criteria. They seemed ready to cut him loose early on in the deal, and pulled the trigger today. Buyer’s remorse set in for Miami after a rough 2012 campaign that saw him post a 5.09 ERA in 63.2 innings with a BB/9 of 4.10. His FIP was certainly better than his ERA, but he still only posted a 0.4 WAR and seemed to be on bad terms with manager Ozzie Guillen.

The Marlins are running from a bad signing and are probably relieved to be doing so. Bell had two excellent seasons with the Padres in 2009-2010, but regressed significantly last season despite keep his save total above 40 for a third straight year. His strikeouts came down big time and his FIP and ERA both shot up. This seems to be a case of a team chasing saves, despite saves being a terrible indicator of how a reliever performed.

Yordy Cabrera doesn’t seem to be a big prospect, but does seem to have some tools that will translate on offense, including some decent pop from the right side. Most of what I’ve read seems to indicate he will have to move to a corner spot to have a shot in the big leagues.

Oakland A’s

Gave up: Yordy Cabrera, Cliff Pennington

Got: Chris Young

Cabrera won’t be missed in Oakland too much and Cliff Pennington is hardly a vital player to the A’s. Pennington had a strong 3.9 WAR in 2010 based heavily on his good defense at SS, but has never broken the 2 WAR mark in any other season. He lacks power and has been getting on base less than he used to, so Oakland can replace him pretty easily.

The addition of Young is interesting. He’s owed $8.5 million next season and has an $11 million option ($1.5 million buyout) for 2014. 2012 was Young’s sixth full season in the big leagues and he’s put together some pretty good campaigns. Both 2010 and 2011 saw him post 4.6 WAR and he managed to post a 2.8 WAR this season despite only playing 101 games. He’s never had a high average or OBP, but the defensive metrics love his glove and he does hit for power.

The other thing I like about Young in this deal is that his worst seasons seem to go hand in hand with a low Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). Generally speaking, BABIP can fluctuate for reasons that have nothing to do with talent (think opposing defense and luck), so Oakland might be making a smart bet that Young can bounce back in 2013.

What makes this more interesting for Oakland is that Josh Reddick and Yoenis Cespedes are definitely part of their 2013 OF along with Young, which opens up some of their other pieces for the trading block. We all know Billy Beane is pretty good at getting a lot back in trades, so this could give him an opportunity to make a profit on some players who played over their heads in 2012.

Arizona Diamondbacks:

Gave up: Chris Young

Got: Cliff Pennington, Heath Bell

The Diamondbacks may have grown frustrated with Young’s low average and OBP, and they could afford to with Kubel, Upton, and Parra as OF options for 2013. Parra’s glove is excellent, so he can make up a lot of Young’s value pretty easily.

The Diamondbacks added Pennington to complement their plan of controlling the leagues supply of contact hitter utility infielders (think James MacDonald, Willie Bloomquist, etc). I can’t say Pennington is a game changer for Arizona, but he doesn’t hurt to have around.

Bell is the wild card in this deal because we don’t know how much of his struggles the last two years are irreversible. He’s had a couple of strong seasons in his career, but he’s getting older, so it’s tough to say. If he bounces back, he’s a great add, if not, he’s next to useless. He walked more hitters, gave up more hits, and gave up more homeruns in 2012 than he did previously, so the Dbacks are betting on that being a fluke rather than a pattern. Chase Field is not a friendly place to get hit hard compared to Bell’s previous stops in San Diego and Miami.

Overall

This feels like a change of scenery deal that could benefit everyone. The Marlins got Cabrera back in a deal that allowed them to dump Bell. Basically, this was better for them than keeping Bell.

I think the A’s did great here. Adding Young without giving up anything too critical could help them with a boost from Young and the freedom to trade some of their currently overvalued assents.

The Diamondbacks will love this deal if Bell bounces back, otherwise, this was foolish. Young could easily provide a more useful return if they allow him to rebuild his value a little in 2013 before dealing him.

Most of all, I think the players are the big winners. Young and Bell were in situations where they were losing playing time and unhappy with the arrangement. They may not bounce back, but they will get their shot.

 

 

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Goofy Leaderboards: Unidentified Pitches!

By Neil Weinberg on | Leave a comment

Since the Tigers clinched a World Series birth yesterday and NLCS Game 5 is still a few hours away, I thought I’d post a goofy 2012 leaderboard, for those of you who love random bits of information.

Today, let’s look at unidentified pitches. What are you talking about, you ask? Thanks to advanced camera and software in every ML park, every pitch’s location, speed, and type are charted and tracked. But sometimes, the system can’t pick up exactly what pitch we’re looking at, so it gives it a tag of XX as opposed to say, FB, SL, CB, CH, etc.

Who leads baseball in these crazy, weird pitches?

This list includes only pitchers who qualified for the ERA title because the system learns the pitchers, so if you only pitch a couple of innings, it has a tough time deciding what pitch you just threw.

Top Five Pitchers Who Throw Weird Pitches:

1. Rick Nolasco (Marlins): 1.2%

2. Aaron Harang (Dodgers): 1.2%

3. Mat Latos (Reds): 1.1%

4. Josh Johnson (Marlins): 1.1%

5. Mike Minor (Braves): 1.0%

That list probably doesn’t really excite you. Only about one percent of pitches weren’t identified for the most unidentified pitchers? That’s hardly interesting. You’re right, but the hitters!

The hitters are interesting!

Top Seven Hitters Who Face Weird Pitchers:

1. Prince Fielder (Tigers): 2.7%

2. Miguel Cabrera (Tigers): 2.5%

3. Carlos Beltran (Cardinals): 2.4%

4. David Wright (Mets): 2.3%

5. Albert Pujols (Angels): 2.1%

6. Josh Hamilton (Rangers): 2.0%

7. Ryan Braun (Brewers): 2.0%

Two things about this list are awesome. First, all of those hitters are top flight. In trying to come up with an anecdotal explanation for this, I have two. 1) Managers go to the bullpen more often with great hitters at the plate, so we’re just seeing these guys facing more pitchers who the system might know a little less well than a starter. 2) Pitchers are doing something different against great hitters that makes identifying the pitch marginally harder. Maybe there is an intentional walk effect?

The second cool thing is that the top two guys play for the same team! What?! This should be a pretty random thing if we’re talking about pitches the computer can’t recognize, but there are two Tigers at the top of the list. Before you say that it’s about the cameras at Comerica Park, no other Tigers are near the top and Austin Jackson is LAST at 0.0%!

Unfortunately, after further review, it is an intentional walk effect. Look up the IBB leaders and the list will look eerily similar. For both hitters and pitchers.

The lesson in this is that apparently a very expensive computer system can’t figure out what the hell is going on when a pitcher throws a 71mph fastball up and away when they normally fires 92-93mph. Maybe we shouldn’t be too worried about the singularity and computers taking over the world.

Or maybe we should, because they can’t figure out why you’d want to give someone a free base when the best player in the league only reaches base 40% of the time.

Posted in: Goofy Leaderboards, MLB Posts | Tagged: ,

Who Has An Ace Up Their Sleeve?

By Neil Weinberg on | 1 Comment

In baseball, we have this term “ace.” For those new to the game, it’s used in two ways. One is to refer to a team’s best pitcher. As in, “Justin Verlander is the Tigers ace.” The other way refers to the best pitchers in the league. As in, “Justin Verlander is an ace.”

This post concerns the latter category. Every team, by definition, has the first kind of ace, but not everyone sports an ace in the second sense.

Below I offer my list of baseball’s aces. Some notes before we get started. First of all, I limited my number to less than 30 because it’s impossible for pitcher #31 to be anyone’s ace in a world of equality where the Phillies don’t have three just for themselves. Second, 2012 matters, but it is not exclusive. This means that you can’t become an ace based on only 2012 and you can’t lose ace status based on only 2012. So Chris Sale isn’t an ace and Roy Halladay still is. Finally, the order is fluid. I ranked them because people like you take a stand, but is Ace #8 really any better than Ace #9? Tough call. Also, I’ve included some also rans, or guys I thought about and decided against or guys who are on the verge but haven’t earned it just yet. Enjoy and feel free to sound off.

The Aces

15. Adam Wainwright (RHP-St. Louis Cardinals): Wainwright was a borderline case for me but after two strong seasons in 2009 and 2010, he bounced back from missing the 2011 season with another good year. In those three seasons, he threw 662 innings, posted a 2.95 ERA and a 3.50 K/BB ratio to go along 9 complete games and four shutouts and his 53-32 record. The strikeout numbers are good and the 5.7, 6.1, and 4.4 WAR in those seasons make me comfortable placing Wainwright at the bottom of the elite group.

14. Tim Lincecum (RHP-San Francisco Giants): The Freak was another tough one, but if I committed to the 2012 Doesn’t Define You Rule© then he has to make the cut. The 2012 version of Lincecum walked a lot more hitters than normal and gave up more homeruns, but from 2008-2011, the list of better pitchers was short. In that time, he threw 881.2 innings and posted a 2.81 ERA next to 10 K/9. And if you’re old school, a 62-36 record while pitching for a team that the fans claim played baseball akin to “torture” because they scored so few runs. So while he’s on shaky ground, it’s hard not to remember how dominant the 28 year old was over the last few seasons.

13. James Shields (RHP-Tampa Bay Rays): Big Game James might not crack a ton of these lists, especially if you chase ERA, which has only been below 3.00 once in his career. What does it for me are the innings. From 2007-2012, he’s thrown 200+ innings every year with a K/9 above 8.1 for each of the last three years. I guess I’m blinded by what he did last season in my favorite pitching categories, complete games. He had 11. No one has had that many since 1999. That screams ace to me.

12. Matt Cain (RHP-San Francisco Giants): Cain is another one of those guys who doesn’t light up a stat sheet, but just goes out there and provides his team innings in a big way. He stays healthy and gives you 32-34 starts and 200+ innings every year and hasn’t had an ERA above 3.15 in five years. Plus he’s still in the prime of his career at 28 and tossed one of the best pitched games I’ve ever seen against Houston this summer in route to a perfect game.

11. Stephen Strasburg (RHP-Washington Nationals): So I may have cheated here because most of his resume comes from what happened this year, but I couldn’t ignore him. Over the course of three seasons, he’s started 45 games and thrown 251 innings. He hasn’t stayed healthy, needing Tommy John surgery (you may have seen some coverage of this!), but if you buy the success rate of the procedure these days, you have no reason to expect another long layoff. But let’s look at those 251 innings like they’re a little more than one full season. His K/9 for his career is 11.20. ERA under 3.00. WHIP under 1.10. Forget the stats, the guy is bonkers good. Just watch him pitch and try not to say things like, “Bu…wha????? Dude…” Ace.

10. Jered Weaver (RHP- Los Angeles Angels): So I’m not a fan of Jeff Weaver’s little brother. Last year after Weaver yelled at Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen showed him up by pimping a homerun. And then Weaver came unhinged and tried to put a baseball in Alex Avila’s face. Alex Avila is one of the more diplomatic guys in the game and he was looking at a Weaver fastball because Weaver is, in layman’s terms, a child who can’t handle himself like an adult. But, he’s pretty good at pitching when he isn’t having a psychotic episode, so here he is. Good command, solid deception, stays healthy. I really just don’t want to say anything good about him, but also didn’t want to overly compromise my integrity by pretending he didn’t exist.

9. Zach Greinke (RHP- Los Angeles Angels): So this is how I react to looking a Greinke’s numbers from 2008-2012.

2008: Very solid. #2 starter. Kid’s got a future.

2009: HOLY $#@%!!!!!

2010: Pretty good year, a little unlucky maybe.

2011: Nice year, if he had been totally healthy, it would have been even better.

2012: Except for those first couple starts in LA, he was awesome.

So I’m not really sure how to quantify how that evens out, but I really like Greinke’s stuff and I think he sometimes gets a bad rap for being a reserved, introverted guy. He can flat out pitch. He’s also only 29. So watch for someone to pay him $11 zillion this offseason.

8. Cole Hamels (LHP-Philadelphia Phillies): Somehow, he’s the first lefty on this list. Actually he starts a string of five straight lefties. Hamels is a guy I really like and the higher I get on this list the less I believe I need to draw on statistics to tell you these guys are good. Hamels has been one of the better pitchers in the game for the last six seasons and his changeup would make Bugs Bunny proud. He’s done it in the playoffs and he’s done it in the regular season.

7. David Price (LHP-Tampa Bay Rays): In the four years that Price has been a full time starter his K/9 have improved every years, his BB/9 have declined, and his FIP have declined. The scary thing about Price is he’s only 27 and looks poised to enter his prime. The repertoire is impressive and he’s getting better. That should scare AL hitters.

6. Cliff Lee (LHP-Trading Block): Just kidding, he plays for the Phillies, but everyone is always trying to trade/trade for this guy. He’s been great in the playoffs and he’s great all the time. Since his reinvention after the 2007 season, Lee has been phenomenal. He’s averaged a 6.5 WAR and never walks anyone! His worst year was a 1.67 BB/9 and he’s been durable and the strikeouts are ticking up as well. His 2012 K/BB ratio was the best anyone has had since 2000 at a mind-blowing 10.28. Hard not to like what Lee does, even if it only got him 6 wins this season. Yeah, six. Hey! He’s six on this list too!

5. Clayton Kershaw (LHP-Los Angeles Dodgers): 24 years old. Career K/9 of 9.29. Career ERA 2.79. Walks coming down every year. Never made fewer than 30 starts in a full season. I don’t need to say much else except that I spent a lot of nights last summer staying up far too late to watch Vin Scully call games pitched by Kershaw on the west coast because he is Clear Your Schedule Good ©. Ace.

4. C.C. Sabathia (LHP-New York Yankees): 11 MLB seasons, never fewer than 28 starts or 180 innings. Lots of strikeouts and has seemed to get better against tougher competition in the AL East. He’s a work horse and pretty much any stat, sabermetric or traditional will tell you he’s great.

3. Roy Halladay (RHP-Philadelphia Phillies): If we had crafted this list before the 2011 season, I’d have put him #1. If we did it at the beginning of this season, I’d probably have put him at #1b. But this year he missed a lot of time and looked human, maybe even showed his age. But Halladay is brilliant. He’s a master craftsman at attacks the strike zone with surgeon like precision.

2. Felix Hernandez (RHP-Seattle Mariners): King Felix is awesome. I’m not even going to say anything else. He’s that good and he’s only 26. Seriously.

1. Justin Verlander (RHP-Detroit Tigers): Verlander has seven years of MLB experience under his belt and only failed to cross the 200 inning plateau when he was a rookie. Never missed a start. Four straight years with a WAR over 6.4. Three strikeout titles. MVP winner and should win his second Cy Young this year. Hard to say something that hasn’t already been said, but there’s poster of Verlander in every room of my apartment. So that should tell you something. His stuff is incredible and the results are awesome. You can’t turn away when he’s pitching. He has two no hitters and has come CLOSE three other times. Only four guys have three or more no-hitters and they’re all inner circle Hall of Famers (Ryan, Koufax, Young, Feller). He’s coming to join them.

In no particular order, here’s a list of guys I thought about for the list that didn’t make the cut: Gio Gonzalez, Yu Darvish, Johnny Cueto, RA Dickey, Max Scherzer, Jake Peavy, Madison Bumgarner, Dan Haren, Doug Fister, Chris Carpenter, Matt Garza, Jon Lester, Yovanni Gallardo, Chris Sale.

Pray for (no) rain!

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