This was more or less decided after the 2013 season, but Miguel Cabrera is going to the Hall of Fame. Despite being injured for the better part of the season, somehow he’s running a 149 wRC+ and 5.1 WAR in 2014. Not to make too much of arbitrary cut points, but that’s his 9th 5+ WAR season and has pushed him over 60 WAR for his career.

You basically need two things to get into the Hall, a great peak and a decent among of longevity (or total value). Cabrera’s peak is unassailable and his total value has now crossed the rough threshold of players who typically make the Hall (60 WAR). Of course, these aren’t perfect rules and WAR is just an estimate, but Cabrera is 31 and has about 11 years left on his contract. Even if he’s a 3 win player for the next 5 year and then becomes terrible, he’s making the Hall in a walk. And he’s almost certainly going to be better than that.

He has a 152 wRC+ which leaves him about 28th all time, right around Joe DiMaggio, Manny Ramirez, and Hank Aaron. Through age 31, he’s 35th in WAR, around guys like Gary Carter, Wade Boggs, George Brett, and Honus Wagner(!). In other words, Cabrera hits all of the major nails directly on the head and will do better with the voters because his defense drags him down and voters overweight offensive achievement.

The last Tiger to get voted in by the BBWAA was Al Kaline in 1980. Maybe Tram and Lou will get in via the Veteran’s Committee before Cabrera, but otherwise the only question will be if Verlander makes it and if he beats Cabrera to the podium.

Assuming he stays reasonably healthy and doesn’t test positive for PEDs, Cabrera is going in as a first ballot Hall of Famer and the first living Tiger to make it close to 50 years..

It doesn’t seem like that long ago that we were all sitting around anxiously waiting for Opening Day. It was a discordant winter. There were trades we loved, trades we hated, signings we found puzzling, and all sorts of prognosticating about what the future looked like in Detroit. The Tigers extended Cabrera on a massive deal and Scherzer turned down another. Whether this was going to be a successful year wasn’t clear but it was pretty clear that Father Time was coming for us.

The core was aging. The marquee players were on the wrong side of thirty, both coming off surgery. There was a new manager and the fan base fractured along the lines of the Fister trade. There was optimism, sure, but the whole thing was this close to falling apart as well. A failed 2014 season wasn’t an option, but Rondon went down. So did Iglesias and Dirks. The margin of error was small and getting smaller. The pressure was on. It had to work.

For a while, it did. The Tigers got off to a blazing start, winning 27 of their first 39, and adding enough cushion that all they needed to do was tread water the rest of the season. They proceeded to collapse. Then rise. Then stumble. Then what?

Verlander’s never found his footing. Cabrera’s been dealing with multiple injures. The defense has been unwatchable at times. The base running hasn’t been much better. Ausmus, the first year manager who looked full of promise, is arguably a worse tactician than his ancient predecessor. Joe Nathan, the prized closer Dave Dombrowski so badly desired, was a mess from day one.

There were bright spots, of course. Ian Kinsler’s been great. JD Martinez, a gift from God. Scherzer and Porcello have done their job. Anibal Sanchez was effective when healthy and the Smyly/Price rotation slot has matched expectations. They added Soria, who was injured before anything much could happen and Victor Martinez is having the kind of year you need to have when the team’s offensive anchor is wounded.

I wasn’t shy in saying that I felt the offseason was a series of big mistakes, with the exception of the tremendous Fielder-Kinsler deal. On balance, my expectations weren’t that high. I set the over/under at 89.5 wins. Good team, not great. Plenty could go wrong.

It’s also been a discordant Summer. You know that. I know that. The team’s play has been stale at times. Ausmus has made many tactical errors. Two of the biggest stars have crawled their way through. The team has been about as good as expected, but man, an 88 or 89 win team with this payroll and this kind of name value? Still didn’t feel right.

It’s almost Fall. The end of the year is two weeks away. They’re capable of finishing this out, making it to the postseason, and winning it all. No question. After taking two of three from the Royals and sweeping the Indians, they are back in control. The Royals are coming down from their impossible post All-Star Break run and the Tigers are getting it together. There is a showdown coming this weekend that should provide clarity.

I often speak about a baseball season being much like a romance. You fall in love with that particular team throughout the season and losing them when winter comes is a hard breakup. But I’m not sure I’ve had that moment this year. The streak in May, maybe. The Davis grand slam, perhaps. There have been some big moments, but I’m not sure about season defining ones. Porcello’s shutouts? The 19 inning loss?

I’m not sure.

This is a very different team than the ones we’ve cheered for over the last few seasons. Many of the familiar faces are gone. Some are aging. Some have one foot out the door.

Maybe the most memorable moment of the season came July 31 when the Tigers were playing during the deadline. We were watching Twitter, the beat writers were spying Dombrowski, and Austin Jackson got pulled mid-batter. That might have been the defining moment of this Tigers season and it was a farewell more than anything else.

I think this team can and will survive the Royals. I think they’re plenty capable of winning in the playoffs. But I’m not sure what I’ll remember about this team. Each Tigers team since 2006 has been distinct in my mind. The things that stick out about this year aren’t wholly positive. Something’s missing, even.

When I analyze the game I think about it objectively. This player is good, this one’s okay, and this one stinks. This decision was right, that pitch was incredible. But as a fan, it’s also about feeling a connection with the experience of watching the team every day. It’s about connecting each team with that specific year in your life. It might just be me, or it might be the team. Maybe it’s because I loved last year’s team so much that the changes have been hard to adjust to or maybe I’m just feeling stagnation in my own life. I don’t know.

But there’s two more weeks. Maybe the moment hasn’t come. Maybe this team’s going to be the one that floors it and marches into the postseason on a hot streak. Maybe it’s going to be about Verlander finding himself or Cabrera, on one leg, recapturing his rightful place among the game’s most feared hitters. It could be anything.

There’s still time. At least two weeks, and hopefully more.

It’s been kind of a weird season to be a Tigers fan for a few reasons. It hasn’t been weird that the bullpen has struggled but it was pretty weird that the biggest question mark of the bunch was the steadiest arm for the first few months of the season. Joba Chamberlain was risk, a fine one, but a risk nonetheless. And for a while, it looked like Dombrowski had cooked up another pot of magic. And then, things went south.

Let’s dig into the first and second half splits for Joba. The All-Star Break is arbitrary. But it’s all arbitrary. I could split it from August 1 or July 25. It doesn’t really matter.

Joba’s strikeout rate is down, the walks are up, the home runs are up, and the BABIP isn’t much higher. Those are bad signs. Granted, it’s a very small sample and we can’t make too much of it, but all of the indicators are trending in the wrong direction.

Let’s check the results:

Nothing surprising here, either, but plenty to make you concerned. This isn’t simply a little batted ball luck or a poorly timed home run. Joba’s peripherals are bad and so are his results. What’s going on here?

There are essentially three possible options. Bad luck, regression, or some sort of change in his process and talent. The bad luck doesn’t hold water because his K/BB/HR numbers are all moving negatively and his BABIP isn’t. That’s not what bad luck looks like.

So we’re really asking ourselves if Joba got demonstrably worse or if this is simple a matter of regression and random variation? Was he just over-performing during the first half, leaving this as a market correction? Or did he forget how to pitch?

Let’s start with a peak at his preseason projections (Steamer). Granted, projections for relievers (especially ones with injury histories) are to be taken with a grain of salt. But let’s look anyway:

This is pretty interesting. Steamer (which thought more of him than over projections), actually expected him to be worse than he’s been to date. He’s getting more strikeouts, limiting home runs better, and running lower ERA and FIP even after the post break swoon. You could look at this table and assume that Joba’s struggles are just things evening out. You might be right, but let’s look a little bit more closely to be sure.

I didn’t find much in his pitch usage or velocity, but let’s look a little bit at location.

He seems to be having more trouble filling up the strike zone since the break, and that’s not a surprise given the walk rate.

Batters are going after his strikes more often and they’re connecting. He’s also throwing fewer strikes and fewer early strikes in the second half. It’s hard to say if this lack of command is just a bit of noise or if it’s deteriorating over time, but it’s certainly not helping his case.

My bet is that Joba pitched above his talent level during the first half and is pitching a little below his talent level right now. I’m not worked up about the fact that he’s getting worse because I think it’s probably safe to say he’s a high 3’s ERA and FIP guy. Relievers like that are going to go through good times and bad. We have enough information to know he’s not that lights out relief ace he was in the early goings, but I also think we have enough information to suggest that he’s not totally useless.

This isn’t an encouraging finding, but it’s probably also not doomsday. Joba is an okay reliever. That’s who the Tigers signed. They just happened to get a couple of great months out of him before he came back to Earth.