Seven Awful Weeks in the Tigers Outfield
Prior to the current four game winning streak, nothing much was going right for the Tigers. Everything was awful and we were all slipping into some type of mix between denial and complete breakdown. It appears that after a sweep in Cleveland, life is going to get back to normal to some extent and food will start to taste better and the air will smell a little sweeter. That is, of course, unless you’re hanging out in the Tigers’ outfield. Because that’s been a giant mess and it was one long before the losing started.
Let’s go back to May 5 for no particular reason other than that I wanted to back up a round number of weeks and May 5 was seven weeks ago yesterday, when I started thinking about this issue. Since then, the Tigers “starting” outfield of Jackson, Hunter, and Davis has been very, very bad. Their only saving grace has been JD Martinez. Read those last two sentences again and then go back in time and play the lottery.
Jackson, Hunter, and Davis are all having below average to bad seasons, but if you remember, they all started quite well. Their defense has been poor from the get go. Hunter is at -14/15 runs. Davis is -4/5 runs. Jackson is about -5. But some of that was expected. Hunter has long left his graceful days and Davis has never been particularly good. Jackson might be a bit of a surprise that he’s doing this poorly, but you can talk yourself out of worrying.
Now let’s look at their offensive performances. Let’s keep it simple and just use wOBA from before May 5 and since. Nothing fancy. Plate appearances and wOBA. Remember that league average wOBA is about .320 and you typically want your corner guys to be in the .340 range or better for a full season.
| Player | PA before | wOBA before | PA after | wOBA after |
| Jackson | 107 | .369 | 173 | .261 |
| Davis | 92 | .372 | 131 | .282 |
| Hunter | 98 | .379 | 143 | .277 |
| Martinez | 20 | .350 | 102 | .411 |
Oh my. Granted, a full season sample is better than a seven week sample and career data is better than one year data and projections are better than that if we’re talking about how players are going to perform going forward, but the lack of production from the Tigers outfield is remarkable. They aren’t great on defense, but they hit their way out of it for the first five weeks. They aren’t doing that anymore. That’s a big reason why JD Martinez is getting so much playing time and why Andy Dirks can’t get back soon enough.
But it’s also why the Tigers might need an outfielder as much as they need a shortstop and reliever come July. Steamer projects Jackson with a .336 wOBA, .338 Hunter with a wOBA, and Davis with a .308 wOBA the rest of the way. That isn’t enough offense given their defense.
Cabrera, Martinez, and Kinsler are doing their thing. The other Martinez seems to be. Castellanos isn’t going anywhere. You won’t find a better catcher than Avila at the deadline. They won’t trade for a starter. SS/OF/RP will be the targets and with Suarez flashing competence, outfield might be the most important target.
A few weeks back, I suggested the Tigers go all in for Ben Zobrist because he could play SS this year and move to a corner outfield spot next year. Different problem, same recommendation. He’s not having his best season, but that makes it a good time to strike. An aging Zobrist is still probably a 3-4 win player and the Tigers might not get that from Jackson, Davis, and Hunter combined this year.
How Was The Game? (June 22, 2014)
Redeeming.
Tigers 10, Indians 4
That wretched month started by getting swept in Cleveland. Hopefully it ended the same way. After two wins to kick off the series, Max Scherzer (16 GS, 104.1 IP, 3.71 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 2.3 fWAR) kept the Indians to one run over six innings, allowing six hits and a walk, while punching out eight. He didn’t need to be quite so sharp, however, considering that his offense committed a crime of passion against Josh Tomlin in the 5th inning when they took their 2-0 lead and turned it into a 9-0 lead with the help of some poor defense by the Tribe. Pretty much everyone got into the action. You couldn’t pick just one star, but Kinsler, Cabrera, and Castellanos might make a list of that nature and McCoy and Smith made their debuts. The Tigers will enjoy a much needed day off on Monday after winning four straight and will head into Arlington for three starting Tuesday night. Drew Smyly (11 GS, 67.1 IP, 3.48 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 0.6 fWAR) will be the man on the mound.
The Moment: The Tigers unload for 7 in the 5th!
How Was The Game? (June 21, 2014)
Like the old days.
Tigers 5, Indians 4
Justin Verlander (16 GS, 104.2 IP, 4.73 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 1.5 fWAR) might not be dead just yet. There’s still a long way to go from here to salvation, but for seven innings on this Saturday night it looked a lot like our old friend out on the mound. He surrendered two runs while walking one and allowing a home run, but he punched out eight with some solid velocity and good secondary stuff. We aren’t going to get the Hall of Famer night in and night out, but he’s going to have more nights like this before he shuts it down. The Tigers bats, for their part, mostly just hit some home runs and called it a day. VMart, Davis, and Kinsler each hit a solo shot and then Blaine Hardy had a huge eighth inning to escape a jam of Al-Al’s making. For the third straight day, then, it was Joe Nathan time, and he got into a little trouble after a pair of strikeouts and the Indians worked quality at bats into a run in the 9th to tie it. It wasn’t tied for long thanks to a Kinsler single, Jackson bunt (groan), and Cabrera double which pushed the ball to Phil Coke who allowed one baserunner in the 10th before shutting it down. Everything went exactly according to plan and the keys will end up in Max Scherzer’s (15 GS, 98.1 IP, 3.84 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 2.1 fWAR) hand on Sunday looking for…the…sweep.
The Moment: Davis and Kinsler go back to back in the 7th.
GIF: Cabrera Gets Caught at Second Base
If you missed it on Thursday, Miguel Cabrera got caught sleeping on the bases when Alcides Escobar made one of the most heads up plays I’ve ever seen on a baseball diamond. I’m sure Cabrera will tell you, just as I will, that this is unacceptable. But you can’t get on him too much because seriously, I’ve barely ever seen anyone try this.
Not really any analysis. Just wanted to record the amazing play for posterity. Get back to the base, kids.
How Was The Game? (June 20, 2014)
Awesome, if you missed the bottom of the 8th.
Tigers 5, Indians 4
The Tigers’ skid started in mid May in Cleveland and they came into town determined to undo the curse. Rick Porcello (14 GS, 88.2 IP, 3.76 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 1.4 fWAR) did his thing, tossing six shutout innings without much drama and the Martinezes did their thing, each turning in a home run of the 2 and 3 run varieties, respectively. The Tigers got a nice set of double plays started by Kinsler and Cabrera to get out of some innings and then they handed the keys over to the bullpen. Alburquerque did his thing and Krol got exposed against righties in a big way, surrendering four runs on two bombs in the 8th before Joba bailed him out. The 5-0 lead faded to 5-4, but Kinsler punched one up the gap to tack one on. Nathan allowed a baserunner but closed the door thanks to a better release point and through it better stuff. (Below, there’s a GIF of the adjustment from yesterday.) The win is their second in a row and puts a series win in view tomorrow with Justin Verlander (15 GS, 97.2 IP, 4.98 ERA, 4.09 ERA, 1.4 fWAR) trying to get back in the game.
The Moment: VMart smashes a two run home run to put the Tigers ahead early.
Porcello’s Release Point Slid, His Results Tumbled
Remember the first six weeks of the season? Those were simpler times. Let’s not talk about what’s gone wrong writ large. Let’s talk about one problem and it’s root cause. Rick Porcello was awesome through May 17. Don’t believe me? Here are numbers!
| Split | G | IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| Through May 17 | 8 | 52.2 | 2.91 | 3.22 | 3.34 |
Tremendous! Great work Rick! Not only did you carry your 2013 improvements over to 2014, you’re actually getting better against lefties and with men on base. Everything’s coming up Milhouse!
But then:
| Split | G | IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| Since | 5 | 30 | 6.00 | 5.32 | 4.66 |
Uh oh! That’s not very good. If you’ll recall, after that great start on May 17, Porcello got a couple extra days of rest due to an injured left side. The Tigers said they wanted to be very careful and I don’t know if the two things are certainly related, but take a look at his release point adjustment since May 17 when the injury was revealed:
Porcello might not be healthy, or he may have gotten into bad habits to protect the once injured side. It could be nothing, or it could be something.
J.D. Martinez is the Answer, But What’s The Question?
J.D. Martinez has had a crazy good week. In his last seven days, he’s had 28 PA and hit .407/.393/.852 (.523 wOBA/240 wRC+), which has brought forth a team best 0.6 WAR. He’s hit three home runs and done some other really good things. It’s a J.D. Martinez kind of week and it’s happened while Torii Hunter has been hurt. Could this be a sign of things to come?
Martinez doesn’t have a track record of MLB success, but he has enough physical talent that you could look at him and buy what he’s selling. There are too many strikeouts in his past, not nearly enough walks, and a lack of defensive value but the power catches your eye and he kind of looks like the right-handed pinch hitter you want your team to have. He hasn’t had much success in the major leagues before 2014, but he hit is way through the minors and I’m always in favor of seeing what those type of players can do.
Thanks to his hot week, JDM is hitting .300/.330/.570 with a .387 wOBA and 146 wRC+. A bat like that can play anywhere on the diamond. In the outfield, he’s been somewhere between slightly below average and a slightly above average in a corner spot, which means he’s not that valuable defensively, but as long as he isn’t killing you (See: Hunter, Torii), a .387 wOBA will wash away any borderline play and keep you in the lineup.
If you’re looking at his stats to date, JDM needs to be in the Tigers everyday lineup even after Torii Hunter returns. JDM has a .387 wOBA and Hunter has a .319 wOBA. Over a full season, that difference would be worth three wins, all else equal. And all else isn’t equal. Hunter has been a terrible defender and Martinez is an okay one. Torii runs the bases a bit better, but there’s only so much value there. If you take their season to date numbers and play this out, it’s JDM in a landslide.
But of course, we can’t just take their season to date numbers and extrapolate because neither player will continue to play like this the rest of the way. They’ll both trend back toward their career marks, but the question is by how much?
The Steamer/ZiPS estimates (two projection systems that use career numbers, in-season data, and historical comparisons) think JDM is due for a .320-.325 wOBA the rest of the way and Hunter will have a .330-.340 wOBA the rest of the way. They also say Hunter will be a -7 or so defender and Martinez will be a -3 or so defender (including the positional adjustment). Let’s play this out a little.
Over a full season, Hunter’s rest of season wOBA advantage equates to about one extra win and his defensive difference equates to about 0.5 fewer wins. If both players play to their projections (Hunter better, Martinez worse) Hunter might be worth and extra 0.3 WAR from now until October. This is what the pro-Hunter, anti-Martinez projections say. And it’s easy to think they’re being too generous.
It’s wrong to throw them out, and I think their offensive estimates are pretty reasonable (although they probably undersell JDM just a touch), but I think they are way overselling Torii Hunter as a defender. The projections see Hunter’s bad defensive numbers last year and his atrocious ones this year as a sign of trouble but not a sign of out and out collapse. Those stats can be tricky and sometimes they’re wrong, so the systems are cautious about relying on the current year.
I would rely on the current year in Hunter’s case. Hunter’s ability to play defense is just about gone, in my opinion. He can’t get to balls, he can’t make good throws, and his route running has been extremely poor. This isn’t a one year blip and he’s 39. Hunter didn’t just make a few bad plays that tanked his numbers, he’s legitimately lost his defensive way. Maybe that’s something he can fix, but I’m not confident about that. His lack of ability to turn batted balls into outs is very damaging to a fly ball heavy staff.
So if JDM’s season to date numbers are way better than Hunter’s and the projections make it a near wash, it might be time to think about reducing Hunter’s role in favor of Martinez. I don’t think Martinez is a great player and he probably shouldn’t be a starting outfielder on a contender going forward, but given the current roster, he belongs out there. We’ll see what happens when Dirks gets back, but for now, it should be a Davis/Hunter job share with Jackson and Martinez starting at the other two spots.
Davis’ only value right now is on the bases and Hunter is actively hurting the team. They should play a little better collectively going forward but it’s probably best to move them into the sharing role and let Martinez have his chance. If it turns out he’s overmatched, then so be it. Martinez isn’t a long term answer for the Tigers but he might be a short term one while they figure out what the future looks like and you have to stop putting Hunter in a position to cost the team runs.
The Astros didn’t want J.D. Martinez and now he might be a very important piece of the Tigers attack. If that doesn’t tell you baseball is weird and that this season has been strange, I don’t know what will. For now, J.D. Martinez should continue to be a regular outfielder and Torii Hunter should come to terms with his limited role, no matter how strange that sounds.
How Was The Game? (June 19, 2014)
Relieving.
Tigers 2, Royals 1
The pressure was on after a very poor week and month in Detroit and a bad night for Ausmus on Wednesday, but Anibal Sanchez (12 GS, 69.2 IP, 2.33 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 2.2 fWAR) came to the rescue with an easy seven innings in which he allowed a single run without a single strikeout. The Royals nabbed a run in the first but he shut the door and gave the offense a shot which they took on a Cabrera double and Martinez homer in the bottom of the 4th. Remarkably, the bullpen didn’t allow any runs and the Tigers won a game in which Miguel Cabrera was thrown out trotting back to second base on an amazing play by Escobar. After a dreadful stretch, a good clean win without much drama was just want the doctor ordered before a 9 game trip. The first of which will see Rick Porcello (13 GS, 82.2 IP, 4.03 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.2 fWAR) on the hill.
The Moment: JD Martinez makes a terrific running catch in foul ground.
How Was The Game? (June 18, 2014)
Stop asking, geez!
Royals 2, Tigers 1
Drew Smyly (11 GS, 67.1 IP, 3.48 ERA 4.35 FIP, 0.6 fWAR) gave the Tigers a strong pitching performance, giving up two runs in 7+ innings after allowing a run in the first thanks to the actual second base bag and a solo shot from old friend Omar Infante. Other than that, Smyly stayed out of trouble and offered the offense a chance to rally. Martinez, he of the JD variety, put the Tigers on the board with a solo HR that wrapped just inside the left field foul pole, but the Tigers were unable to complete the rally despite a leadoff single from Cabrera to start the 9th inning. That makes it three straight losses to the Royals and probably a lot of losses in the last 30 games, but it’s getting to depressing to count. At least we get to watch Anibal Sanchez (11 GS, 62.2 IP, 2.44 ERA, 2.32 FIP, 2.0 fWAR) on Thursday.
The Moment: JD Martinez homers in the 7th.
How Was The Game? (June 17, 2014)
Lalalala can’t hear you.
Royals 11, Tigers 4
Losing to Yordano Venture isn’t bad. But Max Scherzer (15 GS, 98.1 IP, 3.84 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 2.1 fWAR) allowing 10 runs, well that’s downright depressing. Max struck out five and walked one in four innings, but he surrendered two home runs and ten hits in the effort that included a 51 pitch second inning. The Tigers put together a few runs over the course of the game, which is nice, but there’s only so much you can do when your pitching staff hangs 11. I would recommend that you don’t look at the standings page after this one and I’ll spare you the details. Not a whole lot to like in a month of things not to like. It’ll be Drew Smyly (10 GS, 60.1 IP, 3.58 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 0.4 fWAR) on the mound Wednesday afternoon.
The Moment: Eugenio Suarez makes a dandy snag on a liner.
New English D 