How Was The Game? (April 7, 2013)
Pretty quiet at the dish.
Yankees 7, Tigers 0
On this Verlander Sunday, the Tigers looked poised to sweep the Yankees, but came up short. Verlander looked a bit off his game giving up 3 runs in the 2nd but settled in and shut down the Yankees offense for the remainder of his 7 1/3 innings and had a much better day than his College of Aces compatriots Dickey, Price, Hamles, and Strasburg. Coke came on in relief in the 8th and surrendered two runs of his own and Dotel did the same in the 9th, but the story of the day was CC Sabathia quieting the Tigers’ bats. Sabathia looked good today after a less than stellar season debut against the Red Sox on Monday and kept the Tigers off the board for 7 innings. The Yankees bullpen did the rest despite decent scoring chances for the Tigers in the 8th against Robertson and in the 9th against Rivera. Matt Tuiasosopo made his first start as a Tiger and went 2-3 with a walk to endear himself to the faithful, but the Tigers were unable to capitalize on any of their chances. After taking 2 of 3 from the Yankees the Tigers head into the second week of the season 3-3 with Anibal Sanchez looking to handle the Blue Jays on Tuesday in Detroit. The Jays will send Brandon Morrow, Mark Buehrle, and Josh Johnson to the hill in the three game series.
The Moment: Brayan Pena got his first hit as a Tiger. It was an infield single.
How Was The Game? (April 6, 2013)
Strange, but fun.
Tigers 8, Yankees 4
On this day, Max Scherzer was Max Scherzer. He struck out many Yankees, but allowed some hard contact, including a Vernon Wells homerun. Additionally, there was very little offense at times and explosions of offense at others. The Tigers put up a big number in the bottom of the 5th. The Yankees answered in the top of the 6th. The Tigers came back with more in the bottom half of that inning. Every Tiger but Santiago had a hit and many had multi-hit games. Jackson and Hunter continued their torrid starts and Cabrera’s 4 hit day launched him near the top of the team’s leaderboards. Scherzer wasn’t at his best, but the bullpen held it together and the bats carried him. One of the strange moments, other than Vernon Wells homering, was a call that came in the top of the 6th. The bases were loaded with no outs. A line drive was hit to Prince Fielder who caught it and stepped on first for the double play. Except the first base umpire, who was standing not six feet from the base, called the runner safe at first despite being a solid foot away from the base when Fielder stepped upon it. Luckily, the homeplate umpire overruled him, but it was peculiar in the sense that it was such a clear call I could see he kicked it from my kitchen. I didn’t just react as a fan who wanted the call to go our way. In real time, from far away from my television, I saw certain evidence the runner was out. You don’t get to see that too often.
Also of note today was the Alex Avila played the entire game waiting to hear if his wife was going into labor. Seems like a pretty stressful day. New English D is excited to welcome this player to be named later to the Tigers family. Speaking of the Tigers family, we’d also like to plug this fantastic feature from ESPN on Max Scherzer and his brother, Alex, who took his own life last year after a battle with depression. It’s a touching story not just because of our affinity for Max, but also for his brother who suffered from mental illness.
The Tigers climbed to 3-2 on the season and look for the sweep tomorrow behind Justin Verlander at 1pm on Kids’ Opening Day.
The Moment: Prince Fielder turns an unassisted double play in the top of the 6th, despite the best efforts of umpire Brian O’Nora.
How Was The Game? (April 5, 2013)
A sight for sore eyes.
Tigers 8, Yankees 3
The Tigers unveiled the the 2012 AL Pennant before the game and they played like a team looking for another one this afternoon. Doug Fister wasn’t at his best, but he held the Yankees to 3 runs in 5 innings which would be good enough. It was good enough because Prince Fielder smashed a 3 run bomb in the bottom of the 5th to put the Tigers back on top 6-3. He and Avila would add solo shots later in the game as well. But the story of the day was Drew Smyly. Smyly came on in relief the 6th inning and told everyone in the bullpen to pack up their gear. The Tigers erstwhile starter cruised through the Yankees and retired all 12 in order to end the game. As always, it was a party at Comerica Park on Opening Day as they packed more than 45,000 fans into the park. Those fans were treated to a fun one that ended with the Tigers evening their record to 2-2 on the season.
They’ll be back at it tomorrow at 4pm with Max Scherzer toeing the rubber. If you recall, New English D has their eye on the Silver Hammer early this year because we want to see if he can repeat his delivery and take the leap into the College of Aces. Baseball returned to the Motor City today. All is right with the world.
The Moment: Prince Fielder hits a 3-run HR in the bottom of the 5th to put the Tigers ahead for good.
Tigers Ink Valverde to Minor League Deal, Take Giant Risk
It took just a single blown save by the Tigers closer by committee for Jim Leyland and/or Dave Dombrowski to panic. A single blown save caused them to jump ship on the idea (which is a good one) that you do not need a defined closer to be successful. One data point. The Tigers abandoned the strategy, or at least signaled their intent to, because of one bad inning that included a defensive miscue.
Today, the Tigers signed Jose Valverde to a minor league deal that requires them to call him up by May 5th or he can opt out of the deal. The financial risk is minimal, which has led writers both local and national to suggest that this is simply the Tigers exploring all of their options and doing something that won’t cost them anything if it doesn’t work out.
That is bad analysis. There is a giant, catastrophic, enormous risk in signing Valverde. The risk is that he could pitch well enough in Lakeland that they call him up and return him to the closer role, thus abandoning closer by committee and reverting to the paradigm in which they have a closer, but that closer is terrible.
This signing is the Tigers signaling that they think Valverde is better than any of the arms they have in their bullpen. That is not true. It’s not as if the Tigers middle relief had a bad week and they decided to add Valverde for depth. They added Valverde because they think he can be their closer, which they define as their best reliever. This is crazy. Valverde isn’t good enough to be the last man in the Tigers bullpen and he’s going to get a chance to win the closer role.
Don’t get me wrong, Valverde was a good reliever earlier in his career. But he’s been getting worse over the last few years and had a really bad season last year that ended in an utter and complete meltdown. I don’t mean to indicate that Valverde is no longer a useful MLB reliever, but he is no longer a good reliever on a contending team.
Allow me to illustrate this with a graph. Here is Valverde’s strikeouts per 9 and walks per 9 over his ten major league seasons:
As you can see, his walk rate is higher over the last three seasons than it was over the previous three, but it hasn’t changed dramatically. He’s a high walk guy, that’s who he is. Fine. But the strikeout rate is very troubling. It has gotten worse every tear since 2006. Every year. It was below 7.0 last year. That is not a recipe for success. His xFIP was 5.01 last year!
If Valverde performs poorly over the next couple weeks and the closer by committee works well, then we have nothing to worry about. In that scenario, there is no harm in this move. But that’s not what’s going to happen. You know that isn’t how this story is going to go. Valverde will look good in extended spring training. Leyland will foam at the mouth because he wants a real closer and the Tigers will call him up. The Tigers will have a “closer” and everyone who doesn’t know better will be happy. But the outcomes will be worse. Valverde will blow as many games as the committee would have and the middle relief will be worse off because Downs or Villarreal will end up in Toledo.
This signing gives the Tigers a path to revert back to a situation that is safer from a PR perspective. Leyland won’t have to answer committee questions from writers who don’t understand baseball and fans will go back to living in a world in which their views on closers are unchallenged.
But that’s wrong. Closer by committee is the right way to run a bullpen. Someone has to break through and show the world it works. But everyone has to buy into it. The GM, the manager, and the players. If they don’t, then we get this. A washed up former closer who belongs in the Rockies bullpen pitching in close games for a pennant contender. The Tigers were positioned to make such a statement. The have good relievers, but none were defined as closers. It will work if Leyland sticks with it.
This move is an overreaction. It’s a mistake and it’s a risk. The committee blew a single save on the second day of the season and they panicked. Apparently, that’s all they needed to see to decide their closing situation was flawed.
Except last year, Jose Valverde entered in the 9th inning of the first game of last season. And he blew the save.
The Tigers overreacted to a single data point and used that to justify reverting to a strategy that feels safe. But they’re wrong. Valverde in the 9th is a worse option than what they have now. If he flames out in Lakeland, no problem. If he doesn’t and finds his way onto the team, it will be bad news.
And that’s exactly what’s going to happen. Because as much as “saves” don’t matter and anyone can close, there exists a mythology in baseball about the 9th inning and the men who can conquer it. That mythology is utter nonsense, but for now, it seems clear that no one is willing to challenge it.
How Was The Game? (April 4, 2013)
Kind of a meltdown.
Twins 8, Tigers 2
At different points this afternoon, different storylines sought to grab the headline. When the game began, I was expecting to write about how well Rick Porcello performed with his new curveball (5.2IP, 3ER, 2BB, 2K), but that faded quickly as the innings wore on. Porcello threw some encouraging curveballs and went deeper into the game than Verlander or Sanchez had, but was relatively average and gave up a couple of gopherballs to Willingham and Plouffe. The Tigers finally looked poised to breakout after the first two men reached in the 7th inning, but a strikeout by Hunter, a walk to Cabrera, a strikeout by Fielder, and a popout by Martinez dashed those hopes. Dirks led off the following inning with a four pitch walk, but was stranded by Peralta and Avila. The wheels came off in the Twins 5 run 8th and the Tigers went quietly in the 9th.
It wasn’t a great showing by the team, particularly the offense. Porcello pitched well enough to beat the Twins and the offense came up short in numerous situations that could have changed the dynamics heading into the disastrous bottom of the 8th. Entering the 9th inning on Wednesday, the Tigers were three outs away from taking the series and setting up a sweep, but over the next ten innings of baseball they let that slip away and will leave the Twin Cities with a 1-2 record on the young season. Certainly the Tigers’ bats will wake up as the season hurtles forward, but you never like to lose 2 out of 3 to an inferior team, even if it was on the road and in the cold.
The Tigers will send Doug Fister to the hill tomorrow against Ivan Nova and the Yankees for the home opener at Comerica Park. If you’re heading downtown tomorrow, enjoy it for me. It will be the first Opening Day since I moved to North Carolina and the idea of not being there is a touch depressing.
Let this be your reminder that it’s a long season and anything can happen on any given day. The Tigers will be fine and now isn’t even close to the time for panicking. Unless you read the news about Valverde. In which case, you might be feeling some tightness in your chest. That’s normal and to be expected. Try to breath.
The Moment: Fielder K’s down by one with the bases loaded and one out in the 7th
How Was The Game? (April 3, 2013)
It turned into a sneaky pitcher’s duel, but slipped away at the end.
Twins 3, Tigers 2
You wouldn’t have expected it in the early goings, but this one actually turned into a low scoring affair. Sanchez had trouble with his control early, but both he and Kevin Correia had good movement on their pitches and kept both teams off the basepaths for the most part. Sanchez, like Verlander on Monday, went only 5 innings but didn’t allow any runs. Leyland mixed and matched out of the pen again for 12 outs, ultimately calling on Phil Coke to finish the game. Unfortunately, things didn’t go well. Coke came on with a man on first and allowed a single to right center and then a walk off double to left center. The double should have been caught but Dirks and Jackson both expected the other to make the play. It would have been a game-tying sac fly anyway, but the winning run wouldn’t have scored. The strikezone was pretty generous all day, but that didn’t bother Austin Jackson who worked a 10 pitch, 2-out walk in the 3rd inning to set up the Tigers first run of the game. This game didn’t feature great pitching, but it featured effective pitching in front of one of the smallest crowds ever at Target Field and provided us with the first Phil Coke Finger Point of the new year. Rick Porcello will take the hill tomorrow at 1pm and will try to win the series before saddling up and heading to Detroit for the home opener Friday.
The Moment: Jackson works a 10-pitch walk with 2-outs in the 3rd.
How Was The Game? (April 1, 2013)
[Our daily recaps at New English D will follow this mold for the rest of the season. The first line will be the answer to the question that my mom used to pose to me any time I got home from a game. She’d ask, “how was the game?” Here, I’ll answer that question, give you the score, and provide the type of summary I would to her in a paragraph or two.]
It was baseball.
Tigers 4, Twins 2
The Tigers got off to a good start scoring two runs in the first and one in the second before both pitchers settled in during the middle innings. Verlander was good (0 R, 2 BB, 7K) but scarce, only throwing 5 innings and 91 pitches. Smyly didn’t have good command out of the bullpen but didn’t let the game unravel either before yielding to Alburquerque, Benoit, and Coke to get the final eight outs. Hunter had a nice showing in his Tigers debut and Fielder, Peralta, and Infante joined him with multi hit games of their own.
It probably wasn’t the best played game of the day, but it was just really good to have the Tigers back in our lives. We’ll have to keep our eye on Smyly out of the pen and if this was just a one time blip or if he’s having trouble getting loose mid-game. I’m a big fan of the way Leyland played the matchups rather than looking to fit guys into defined roles early. The weather made it tough on everyone, but the Tigers took care of the Twins on Opening Day and improved to 1-0 on the season.
The Moment: Prince Fielder sliding on his face while scoring on a wild pitch.
Five Things to Watch in April
Due to the glorious reality that we now have actual baseball to watch and dissect rather than just future baseball to dissect, we can start to look for early seasons indications of how the season is going to turn out.
Here are five Tigers-related things I’ll be looking for in the early days.
1. Rick Porcello’s Breaking Ball
Porcello was the subject of lots of trade rumors and fifth starter battles, but he has silenced his critics with a strong spring for the time being. He dumped his slider for a curveball this season and the results have been great. In 2012, opposing batters hit .394 against his slider for a lot more power, but the early returns on the curveball have been promising. He had a great spring (not that you should put much stock in the numbers) and the curveball was a much better compliment to his fastball. The velocity separation was bigger and it kept hitters off balance. If Porcello can continue to utilize that pitch against bona fide big leaguers, he could tick his strikeout numbers up and turn into the #2/#3 starter that he was projected to be. Frankly, he’s been a 2-3 WAR pitcher over the last few seasons, so he’s already good enough for most rotations. If he develops into anything more (remember he’s still 24), he could be a borderline All-Star.
2. Andy Dirks’ Bat
The Tigers everyday left fielder had a phenomenal slash line last season (.322/.370/.487) but only played in 88 games due to injury. Those numbers are relatively consistent with his minor league numbers, so we have reason to believe the 27 year old lefty can produce like this again, but the MLB sample size is small. Hitting in the midst of a strong lineup should help, but I’ll be looking to see if Andy Dirks is really this good, or if the truth is hiding behind last year’s small sample. A lot of scouts see Dirks as a really good fourth outfielder, but I’m a fan of his skills and think he can stick as a third outfielder on a good club.
3. Torii Hunter’s BABIP
Hunter had his best big league season by WAR and batting average last year, but a lot of that was driven by an unusually high batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Typically, you expect to see a number around .300 with the game’s best hitters leaning toward .330 or .340. You generally don’t see players, especially older ones improving on their BABIPs outside of randomness, meaning any big one year spike should be observed with caution. Hunter had such a spike last year, posting a .389 BABIP on a .307 career mark. Most people see those numbers and think Hunter was the recipient of good fortune last year and was not as good as his numbers indicate. He’s always been a good defender, but is he actually as good as his last season at the plate? Probably not, but that’s okay. He’s a 2-3 WAR corner outfielder replacing Brennan Boesch who was a -1 WAR player last year. Even if Hunter isn’t a 5 WAR player this season, he’ll still be good. But keep an eye on Hunter’s BABIP. If it’s high and stays that way, it may indicate a change in approach in his old age for the better.
4. Alex Avila’s Power
The difference between Avila’s 2011 (4.6 WAR) and 2012 (2.4) is twofold. One was health (141 games to 116). The other was power (.506 SLG to .384). A lot of people focus on batting average, but walking is such a big part of his game that average obscures the truth. Even last year, he got on base at a .352 clip, which is very good despite a .243 average. He’s probably not going to be the .295 hitter he was in 2011, but if he gets some of that power back, he’ll be as good as he needs to be. A catcher who gets on base at a .350 to .360 rate with .440 to .460 slugging is a hugely valuable asset given his quality defense. If Avila is driving the ball for extra bases early and his knees aren’t sapping his power in April, the Tigers can rest easy knowing 2013 will look more like 2011 than 2012 for Avila.
5. Max Scherzer’s Delivery
I’ve said on many occasions that the key to Scherzer taking the leap from really good stuff and pretty good results to top flight starter was his ability to keep his delivery in line pitch after pitch. Last season, he started to put it all together and led qualifiers in K/9. If he can keep on that path, he could be an All-Star with borderline Cy Young stuff. If he gets out of whack, we’ll know he’s likely always going to have that flaw. He has a lot of moving parts when he winds up, so an early season showing that Scherzer can repeat his delivery will bode well for the Tigers’ fortunes this year.
What are some other important things to watch in April? Let us know what you think in the comments or on Facebook.
Ernie Harwell Brings You Opening Day
Every year, Ernie used to read this quotation from the Song of Solomon on Opening Day. Yesterday, I heard a priest recite this in Ernie’s name in reference to the rebirth of baseball, Spring, and Easter.
For, lo, the winter is past,
The rain is over and gone;
The flowers appear on the earth;
The time of the singing of birds is come,
And the voice of the turtle is heard in our land.
Go Tigers.
Check back after the game for the first edition of How Was the Game?
This Could Be The Year
Every year could be the year. Even this one. Especially this one.
That’s what we’re all thinking as the baseball season begins today. During this time of year, there is still a chance for all of us. Tigers, Nationals, Twins, and Rockies fans alike all share in this feeling.
Until proven otherwise, every team could go the distance this year. This could be the year.
It’s an annual tradition that we never fail to observe. I wrote about it last year, right about this time, for the Eastern Echo. I wrote of the hope that comes in Spring, both for those who should be hopeful and for those who have nothing better to do than be hopeful.
It’s a hopeful time of year.
Last year around this time, my entire life was changing. I was graduating, getting married, and moving away to start graduate school 700 miles from the baseball team that anchored me so firmly. It was a hopeful time after a long, arduous winter ahead of a summer of upheaval.
And that hope was rewarded with a great season and run deep into October that made me feel close to home while I was far away.
The view from a year later is much clearer. Much less tumultuous, but no less hopeful. The last year for me has been a good one, but it was also taxing and trying. The stress and anxiety that came with such big changes dampened some of the joy that one might expect to find in a baseball team that comes within four wins of a World Series.
Which makes this Spring, this moment, sweeter. Those changes are behind me and with unclouded eyes, I can embrace the 2013 season and the prospect of a title. It’s almost as if the Tigers were waiting for me. I had to take the next step before they would.
The two aren’t connected, but I’m going to believe that they are because, damn it, this is the time of year when everything makes sense. The sun shines brighter and the prospects of a glorious summer are unrestrained.
This could be the year. For the Tigers. For me. For anything.
I’m a pretty rational and analytical person, a true child of the enlightenment. But sometimes, and this is one of those times, the romantic in me emerges. Things are bigger than us and the world is a magical place full of wonder. Sure we can debate all the reasons something shouldn’t happen, but is there anything better than watching a team who has no business winning a division title pour out onto the field to celebrate that title?
I mean, it’s hard not to get romantic about baseball. We all know that. It overwhelms us sometimes. When Adam Greenberg gets another at bat after getting hit in the head after his first and only prior at bat, that’s when it’s hard not to get romantic.
Or when Darrin Downs takes the mound three years after a fractured skull nearly killed him. That’s when it’s hard not to get romantic about baseball.
When your team sprays champagne and the grumpy old man who managers the team starts crying like a baby and waxing poetic about your city, that’s when it’s hard not to get romantic about baseball.
So I’m getting romantic in anticipation about all of that. About the flyover before Opening Day and the crowd on their feet for the nobody journeyman closing in on a no-hitter. About the kid from a small town about to take the big stage for the first time. About the fathers and sons sharing a game for the first time. About watching your team finally, finally hoisting the trophy.
Right now, at this moment, all of that can happen. It will happen. For some of us at least. My hope for all of you, as it always is, is that your faith will be rewarded.
This could be the year, it really, really could.
New English D 