Torii Hunter’s Bat Goes Cold
Torii Hunter’s defensive struggles are well known at this point in the season. If you trust DRS, UZR, RZR, or basic BABIP, he’s been one of, if not, the worst outfielders in the game. I’ll have a piece today over at TigsTown about that particular issue, but it’s also running alongside a rather troubling stretch at the plate. Hunter doesn’t bring defensive value anymore, but his bat has vanished over the last three weeks. Observe:
| Split | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ |
| March 31 to May 6 | 107 | 0.333 | 0.355 | 0.529 | 0.384 | 143 |
| May 7 to May 26 | 68 | 0.172 | 0.221 | 0.297 | 0.233 | 39 |
You’re not going to lose your mind over 70 PA and I obviously picked the period of time from his peak to his nadir, but it’s troubling because he can’t get away with this for any length of time. Even when you include Hunter’s hot start, FanGraphs has him at -0.2 WAR and Baseball-Reference has him at -0.7 WAR. Baseball Prospectus calls it -0.1 WARP. It’s bad.
This is a bad season. The power is there, but he has a .303 OBP in more than 170 PA and is bringing no value in the field. The Tigers need him to turn it around because they don’t have an obvious replacement and you can’t hide him at DH on this team. A guy with Hunter’s star power isn’t going to ride the pines on this team, it’s just not how they do business. It’s going to be Hunter, sink or swim.
One of the biggest concerns is that Hunter, who swings at pitches outside of the zone more than the vast majority of players in the league has stopped making contact with them. This year he swings about 37% of the time at pitches outside of the zone with league average being 29%. That’s who Torii is, but when you break it down by contact outside the zone, it’s getting ugly. Up through May 6th, he was making contact 64.9% of the time when he left the zone. Since he’s making contact 52.5% of the time when he leaves the zone. League average is 63.9%. He swings a lot, but he used to make contact a good amount when he chased. That isn’t happening right now.
The margin for error for a guy like Hunter who is swing happy and doesn’t walk is small. If you slump at all, you slump hard. And while his BABIP is down, obviously, this isn’t hard luck slumping. Hard contact is harder to come by and he’s reverting back to his pre-2012 pull happy style.
They’re going to have to ride this out, but Torii needs to make an adjustment. The pitching staff has provided him (and Jackson and Davis) some cover over the last few weeks by being amazing and then being terrible, but you can’t hit at the top of the order or in the middle of it if you’re performing like this.
How Was The Game? (May 26, 2014)
[redacted].
A’s 10, Tigers 0
I mean I know that the streak will end and the Tigers will bounce back, but it hasn’t been a lot of fun to watch the last couple of days, and if you know me, that’s saying something. Drew Smyly (7 GS, 44.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 4.81 FIP, 0.2 fWAR) gave up four bombs and a couple extra runs in 5 innings and fought through foul ball after foul ball. Six runs seemed doable, considering some of the recent deficits, but the offense had just about nothing throughout the afternoon and then Phil Coke’s inning got away. Nick Castellanos provided some enjoyment, walking twice and registering his fourth and fifth walks in the last three games which were more walks than he had in his career prior. Corey Knebel also had two solid innings. At some point, the pain will end. Perhaps Max Scherzer (10 GS, 66 IP, 2.59 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 1.7 fWAR) will make it happen tomorrow night.
The Moment: Nick walks twice!
How Was The Game? (May 25, 2014)
Ugh…again.
Rangers 12, Tigers 4
It’s been a bad week with the Tigers going 1-6, losing in dramatic and blowout fashion, with today’s game being an example of the latter. Justin Verlander (11 GS, 71.1 IP, 4.04 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 1.6 fWAR) had one of the worst outings of his career during one of his worst stretches, allowing nine runs in 5.1 innings while striking out one and walking three. The contact was good and the bounces didn’t go his way. It’s probably time to worry about him a little bit, even if worrying about him means he’s throwing like a back end starter rather than a front end one. The bats couldn’t get enough going despite a couple runs early and a couple of runs late, allowing the game to coast to an underwhelming end which included a hamstring issue that led to Cabrera coming out of the game and an ankle issue that took Joba. A long flight to Oakland will set up Drew Smyly (6 GS, 39.1 IP, 2.97 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 0.6 fWAR) on Monday.
The Moment: Nick walks twice!
How Was The Game? (May 24, 2014)
Ugh.
Rangers 12, Tigers 2
Rick Porcello (9 GS, 58 IP, 3.88 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 1.1 fWAR) started out well today and a nasty, weird, unfortunate 4th inning broke things open and then he struggled to get back on track over the next two innings, turning in his worst start of the season. Two homers, couple rough walks…I don’t really want to talk about it. The bats didn’t do much aside from a single run early, a single run late, and a couple other threats. Thankfully, we got more Danny Worth on the mound. It was the only redeeming moment and boy was it redeeming even with the run allowed. It’s been a tough week. If you missed this game, watch the 9th inning and call it a day. Justin Verlander (10 GS, 66 IP, 3.55 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 1.7 fWAR) will try to grab the split on Sunday.
The Moment: More Worth!
How Was The Game? (May 23, 2014)
A recovery.
Tigers 7, Rangers 2
Anibal Sanchez (7 GS, 35 IP, 2.83 ERA, 2.44 FIP, 1.1 fWAR) was on tonight. He had a brief scare in the second in which he allowed a pair of runs, but after that it was a complete domination. He went 7 innings, allowed five hits, no walks, and struck out five while carving up hitter after hitter with a nice mix of fastballs, changeups, sliders, and curves and found more and more velocity as the game wore on. The offense carried on as they have over the last few days, scoring seven runs in part on home runs from Jackson and Romine (!) and a bunch of doubles from Kinsler. The mix of Sanchez being Sanchez and the offense scoring early and often made this one a lot smoother than the last four games, which had been, politely, excruciating. The Tigers will look to secure no worse than a split on Saturday with the great Rick Porcello (8 GS, 52 ⅔ IP, 2.91 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 1.3 fWAR) on the mound.
The Moment: Romine’s first career home run just clears the fence in right.
How Was The Game? (May 22, 2014)
Worth it.
Rangers 9, Tigers 2
Do I have to? Fine. This was a rough one. Robbie Ray (3 GS, 15.1 IP, 4.11 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 0.2 fWAR) looked fine in the first and it got ugly in a hurry from the second inning on. He pitched into the 4th, allowing 7 runs, and didn’t fool anybody. Ray has a solid future, but he ran into his first real challenge (a team that hits lefties well) and they knocked him around. The Tigers bats had some early chances but BABIP’d their way out of them until the 6th inning when they started to chip away. It was Darvish, so you can’t be too upset about that, but you’d have preferred a competitive contest. The real note in this one was that Coke pitched despite his heavy workload in an effort to save the pen and Smyly came in to throw between starts and did the same. The big one? Danny Worth came in for the 9th inning and struck out two batters throwing knuckleballs. He got five whiffs and touched 89 on the heater. It was awesome. Anibal Sanchez (6 GS, 28 IP, 2.89 ERA, 2.64 FIP, 0.8 fWAR) goes on Friday.
The Moment: Danny Worth pitches!
via Grant Brisbee at SBN.
Yes, Alex Avila Is A Good Hitter
Many people seem to think Alex Avila is a poor hitter. This isn’t a few crazies, it’s a meaningful contingent of people. They’re wrong. I’m always open to the idea of being incorrect. I make it a person goal. You always have to be willing to come across evidence to the contrary, but given the evidence available to the general public at this point in time, you can’t build an argument that Alex Avila is performing poorly this year. You may be able to craft an argument that says he’s not going to be good for very long, but he’s awesome right now during this very season.
But Avila is hitting .245! That seems bad!
It’s not, and it also doesn’t matter, almost at all. The league average position player’s batting average is .255. The league average catcher’s batting average is .254. At worst, Avila is 9 or 10 points worse than the average player or average player at his position.
But Avila strikes out all the freaking time!
He is striking out a lot this season. 33.9% of the time! But that’s okay. Strikeouts aren’t good, but they aren’t the devil. This is a point against him, but there’s more to baseball than strikeouts!
Alright, smart guy, what’s so good about Alex Avila’s bat?
Glad you asked! Thanks for being open minded. Alex Avila has a 15.3% walk rate. The average catcher walks 8.3% of the time. Avila doesn’t always get hits, but walking is almost as good as a single. It’s not quite as good because sometimes runners can advance an extra base on a single, but who are you kidding, Avila hits behind Martinez and Castellanos most of the time, so it’s only Austin Jackson and he’s not always on base. That 15.3% walk rate takes that slightly below average batting average to a super great OBP! His OBP this year is .368. The average catcher’s OBP is .322. That’s a huge gap. Avila gets on base 4.6% more of the time than the average player at his position. That’s great! Of players with 80 PA at catcher this year, Avila’s OBP is 9th. And 4-9 are all really close, too. He’s a good defensive catcher who gets on base way more than average. And getting on base is good!
Take it a step further, he’s slugging too! His slugging percentage is .449 and the average catcher slugs .398. That’s a huge gap. Throw those bad boys together and his .364 wOBA is quite a bit better than the .319 wOBA the average catcher offers (129 wRC+ to 100 wRC+). That 129 wRC+ is also the third best mark on the Tigers. It’s VMart, Cabrera, and then Avila. Avila.
There are two things about Avila’s offensive game that seem bad, but batting average 1) has been declining league-wide for years and you need to lower your expectations and 2) is a really bad stat to care about because it’s leaving out tons of useful information. The other thing, striking out, isn’t good, but it’s not hurting him. This isn’t 2011 Avila, but this is a really good player. He might get hurt and miss a bunch of time or stop being able to hit because his knee falls off, but so far this season, he’s killing it.
#TeamAvila
Why I’ll Cheer For Prince
I know this is a raw topic and people have a lot of strong opinions on the matter. This isn’t a lecture and if it sounds like one it’s a failure of the pen and not of the heart. But a lot of people are fired up to boo Prince Fielder. I’m not one of them. This is probably all academic because Prince might miss the series with an injury and because I don’t actually “live close to Michigan,” but I wanted to tell you why I don’t harbor any resentment toward Prince.
Prince didn’t have a good season by his standards in 2013. Some of it was bad fortune early, some of it was distraction late. He was bad in the postseason. He made a really costly baserunning mistake. And a defensive one. He didn’t perform at a level you would expect of someone who makes what he makes. Compared to the player he was in 2012 and the player we think he should have been, he sucked, I won’t argue otherwise.
But I won’t boo him for that. He didn’t want to play poorly, I’m sure. You can argue that he checked out (we’ll get to that), but he wasn’t playing poorly on purpose. It’s not like he intentionally threw the season. It’s the same reason I never booed Inge, Raburn, etc. It’s why I wouldn’t boo Romine or Coke, even though they’re both in way, way over their heads. Baseball is hard.
I’ll never boo anyone based on performance, period. I think it’s wrong. It sends the wrong message, and I don’t care if you’re doing it to show management you want them on the bench. It says your love (or fanhood, whatever) is condition and I don’t think it should be. And I’ve never heard of a player getting better because their fans booed them. As if they don’t know they were failing.
Do I think Prince gave his best effort last year? I’m not sure. I won’t argue if you think he was checked out or a little distracted. That’s fine. But he was distracted for a very good reason. His marriage was ending. His family was being torn apart. His family is more important than baseball. His family might not be more important than baseball to you, but it’s more important to him. And it should be. Some people are good at putting that kind of thing out of their mind. Some people are good at channeling that trauma. Some people crumble. And that’s okay. I don’t think it’s fair to expect a person to perform at their best when they’re going through something like that. Some people can do it, but not everyone can. If my wife left me (love ya. honey!), I would be a pathetic shell of a person. You’d have to convince me to eat, much less produce anything worthwhile at my job.
I don’t think he played poorly because he wasn’t trying, I think he played poorly because he was depressed. I’m not qualified to diagnose a person I’ve never met, or really a person I’ve met, but I know a decent amount about mental health and Prince seemed to exhibit behaviors of someone going through depression. And depression would be a normal response to the end of a marriage. People who have gone through depression can tell you, the entire world is full of stuff you used to love but no longer do anymore. Things that used to provide enjoyment all of a sudden seem pointless and difficult. That’s how I perceived what was going on with Prince.
And that’s how I perceived his “it’s over bro” comments. To fans who just had their season end, it sounded like someone who didn’t care about them. To me, it actually sounded like a guy who wasn’t enjoying his life at all. He didn’t care because he had just had the worst month of his professional life at the end of the worst year (I’m assuming) of his personal life. He wanted to go home and see his kids. And that’s okay with me.
Pro athletes are asked to be superhuman physically. Most people want them to be superhuman in every other way, but they just aren’t. Prince never had the verbal grace of Curtis Granderson and he had just screwed up royally on the biggest stage. Forgive him for giving a few bad quotes.
Don’t get me wrong, I understand why people are unhappy with him. And I think it was a good baseball trade and probably a good trade for everyone involved. Kurt Mensching likened it to a breakup that both parties needed. That’s a good way to put it. I think it was probably good that Prince got traded, but I harbor zero ill will toward him.
Baseball is his job, not his life. My job isn’t my life, I don’t expect anything more of anyone else. Prince doesn’t seem like a bad guy. He didn’t do anything to me. He didn’t hurt anybody. He had a bad year. To borrow his words, it’s over bro. Miguel Cabrera got drunk and got into an altercation with his wife during a pivotal series in 2009. Probably cost the Tigers a trip to the playoffs. He’s beloved. He got into a car in 2011 with a blood alcohol level of .24. He put lives in danger. He’s beloved. I don’t mean to trivialize the work Cabrera has done to right his wrongs, but he’s an honest to God criminal. The Tigers and Tigers fans embraced Cabrera as a family member in trouble. That’s how I feel about Prince.
He was hurting, at least that’s how I saw it. I could be wrong. I see the other side. But Prince was fun to watch and I enjoyed cheering for him as a Tiger. It didn’t work out, but I wish him the best. I’ll always cheer for Prince. He’s one of us, as far as I’m concerned. To me, it looks like he needs someone to have his back rather than tell him to take a hike. If I was in Detroit this weekend and he was too, I’d be on my feet showing my affection.
How Was The Game? (May 21, 2014)
Wild.
Indians 11, Tigers 10 (13 innings)
Being a writer, calling something indescribable is pretty bad practice. That is literally what I’m supposed to be doing here, describing things. So I’ll try, but just know that I wanted to just call this one a mess and move on. The Tigers jumped out to a four run lead before Max Scherzer (10 GS, 66 IP, 2.59 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 1.7 fWAR) even took the mound, and it took him all of two innings to give it back plus two. Then Victor Martinez and Lonnie Chisenhall traded home runs in the third. Then the Tigers got two in the 5th. Then the home plate umpire ejected Cabrera and Ausmus on a very quick hook. Scherzer was very bad and then pretty good. Of course, the game turned when the Indians botched a double play ball off the bat of Victor in the 8th, leading to two Tigers runs. JUST KIDDING, Joe Nathan allowed a game tying home run in the 9th and sent it to extras. The Tigers almost lost it in the 10th before Rajai Davis gunned down Chisenhall at the plate to extend it. Avila went yard in the top of the 13th, about 5 hours after this one got started, but even that wasn’t good enough as the Indians tied it in the bottom half of the inning and loaded the bases for Ryan Raburn. At which point there was a walk off balk. End of game. End of recap. They’ll head home for a four game set with the Rangers, turning first to Robbie Ray (2 GS, 12 IP, 0.75 ERA, 2.25 FIP, 0.4 fWAR) on Thursday.
The Moment: Rajai guns down Chisenhall trying to score in the 10th…or maybe Avila puts them ahead in the 13th!
How Was The Game? (May 20, 2014)
Better than the night the Pistons had, at least.
Indians 6, Tigers 2
Tuesday’s had two distinct story lines. The first was Justin Verlander’s (10 GS, 66 IP, 3.55 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 1.7 fWAR) rocky first trip through the order. It was bad. He allowed a run in the first on three singles and four runs in the second on four hits and a walk before settling in and getting through six innings. He was able to stop the bleeding, but the hole was already quite deep. The bats made an effort, getting a bomb each from Hunter and Avila, but failed to find an open space when they had men on base the rest of the way (Story line #2!). Double plays and good defense kept them from breaking through and Reed surrendered a home run to grow the deficit a touch more. After a great start to the road trip, the Tigers will need to win Wednesday behind Max Scherzer (9 GS, 59 IP, 1.83 ERA, 2.77 FIP, 1.6 fWAR) to avoid the sweep.
The Moment: Avila crushes one to left center field.
New English D 