2012 Season in Review: St. Louis Cardinals
88-74, 2nd in the NL Central, 2nd Wild Card
Lost in the NLCS to the Giants
After winning the 2011 World Series in dramatic fashion the Cardinals came within one win of making it back to rekindle the 2006 series against the Tigers. But falling short can hardly be called a failure in a game filled with parity. The Cardinals had an amazing season that was capped off by one of the more amazing wins in recent memory.
They lost Albert Pujols to free agency and Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan to retirement after 2011, but the Cardinals didn’t panic and had a solid season. They won the inaugural NL Coin Flip game against the Braves with a little help from a bad call and came back to stun the Nationals in Game 5 of the NLDS. They took a 3-1 lead on the Giants in the NLCS, but couldn’t close the deal and went home one win shy of the Fall Classic.
The offense led the way as we all thought it would. Yadier Molina (6.5), Matt Holliday (5.1), David Freese (4.1), Jon Jay (4.1), Carlos Beltran (3.6), and Allen Craig (3.1) all racked up solid to great WARs and role players like Matt Carpenter and Pete Kozma delivered when they needed them to do so.
All told, they were baseball’s second best offense and third best group of position players when you factor in defense. As expected, they Cardinals bats delivered.
But the league’s 9th best pitching staff also called Busch Stadium home in 2012. Adam Wainwright led the staff (4.4 WAR) and had a great #2 in the form of Kyle Lohse’s breakout year (3.6). Lance Lynn and Jamie Garcia also contributed along with a respectable year from Jake Westbrook. Joe Kelly picked up the slack and filled in when those five couldn’t go, allowing Chris Carpenter to rest up for the very late stretch run.
The bullpen was middle of the roadish, but they certainly didn’t cost them enough games to make it hurt.
Mike Matheny’s first season as a manager went well for the club, even if he does think bunting is compulsory.
It was a very strong year from one of baseball’s strongest franchises. The Cardinals locked up the newly minted 2nd Wild Card and carried that good fortune deep into October. They didn’t miss Pujols and managed without Carpenter.
With some exciting young arms coming to a Busch Stadium mound near you, it’s hard not to be bullish on the 2013 Cardinals while commending them on a fine 2012.
2012 Grade: A
Early 2013 Projection: 90-72
2012 Season in Review: Milwaukee Brewers
83-79, 3rd in the NL Central
The Brewers came close to following up their run to the 2011 NLCS with another playoff appearance, but ended up just short and finished 5 games behind WC2 St. Louis. This might feel like a respectable season given the loss of Prince Fielder to the big spending Tigers and Zach Greinke to the Angels via trade, but it’s hard not to look at 2012 as a missed opportunity if you’re a Brewers fan.
The reason I say this is because the Brewers could have made the playoffs if their bullpen didn’t implode time after time during the first half. They played well down the stretch and certainly could have won five more games with two more months of Greinke mixed with a not-terrible bullpen in May and June.
Ryan Braun had a near MVP season (7.9 WAR) and Aramis Ramirez filled in admirably in place of Fielder (6.5 WAR) behind him. Jonathan Lucroy posted a spectacular 3.9 WAR in 96 games behind the plate and Carlos Gomez (3.5), Nori Aoki (2.9), and Corey Hart (2.9) all had solid seasons at the plate.
Collectively, Brewers position players accumulated 33.6 WAR on offense and defense, good for second in all of baseball. They didn’t miss Fielder that much. They got elite production from their stars, solid contributions from regulars, and didn’t have anyone who dragged them down with a lot of at bats of negative value.
On the hill, the story is a bit different. Greinke gave them two great months (3.8 WAR) and Mike Fiers (3.0), Marco Estrada (2.7), and Yovani Gallardo (2.7) all had solid seasons. Wolf and Marcum also made quite a few starts of mediocre value, but the key deficiency of the rotation was that only Gallardo make more than 24 starts. By WAR, they had the 9th best rotation in baseball.
The bullpen, however, was 25th in baseball and posted a 4.11 BB/9 rate. Only the Cubs and Dodgers were as bad or worse in 2012. Only the Mets had a worse Left on Base rate. Only the Astros and Rockies gave up more hits. We should cut them some slack because they pitch in a hitter friendly park, but not this much. And we should also remember they stunk in the first half and did get a little better.
But the story here is that bullpens performing very badly over a short period can cost you a good deal of games with a small raw amount of terrible performance. I don’t like Saves as a stat for many reasons, but when you blow 30 of them as a team in one season, you’re doing something wrong.
So the story of the 2012 Brewers is a story about a good offense, respectable starting pitching, and a rough bullpen. They were good enough to make the Play-in Game except for a ton of blown games late. It’s hard not to let that eat at you over the course of an offseason.
The loss of Greinke going forward will cost them without an obvious replacement, but they should be able to recreate him with a couple of solid arms who can replace all of the starts they gave to AAAA type players.
The Reds and Cardinals aren’t going anywhere and the Pirates look serious. The Brewers need to beef up their bullpen and solidify their rotation if they want to give their offense a shot at carrying them back to the postseason.
2012 Grade: C
Early 2013 Projection: 82-80
2012 Season in Review: Pittsburgh Pirates
79-83, 4th in the NL Central
They almost ended the torture that is baseball’s longest losing season streak. Almost. After pulling even with .500 on May 30th, they held at or above .500 until September 20th.
For some of the season, they were sitting in a playoff position. The Pirates were a relevant baseball team in 2012 even if they faded down the stretch and ended up posting another losing season.
The story of the Pirates’ strength was pitching and Andrew McCutchen, but only one of those held up down the stretch. McCutchen’s 7.4 WAR and 158 wRC+ were the best numbers from a Pirates positions player since Barry Bonds in the early 1990s.
Problem was, he didn’t get much help. Neil Walker (3.3) and Pedro Alvarez (2.9) were the only position players to post starter level WARs this season, and the club as a whole was 10% below average offensively and didn’t make up for it on defense.
After a strong start, the pitching faded too. A.J. Burnett had a fine year (3.4 WAR, 3.51 ERA), but James MacDonald was the only other starter to combine innings with any kind of effectiveness. Burnett was the only Pirates arm to top 1.7 WAR. That’s not a good formula.
But the Pirates shouldn’t fear because they have a lot to look forward too. They have one of the best stadiums in the game in a great part of the city and they also have some exciting young arms coming up through the system. With McCutchen locked up and some interesting complimentary pieces in-house, the Pirates might not be that far away from being true contenders.
I wouldn’t start buying 2013 playoff tickets just yet, but I would plan to have a “We’re Over .500” party next September.
2012 Grade: C
Early 2013 Projection: 84-78
2012 Season in Review: Chicago Cubs
61-101, 5th in the NL Central
The best thing you can say about the 2012 Chicago Cubs is that they weren’t the 2012 Houston Astros. It was a rough season for the North Siders as they lost over 100 games for just the third time in franchise history. Given the bad news bears-ish-ness of the Cubs over the years, that’s actually kind of surprising.
The Cubs had a few solid position player contributors, but those contributions dropped off well before you got down the lineup and onto the bench. Alfonso Soriano (4.0), Starlin Castro (3.3), Darwin Barney (2.5), and Anthony Rizzo (1.8 in half a season) all posted starter worthy WARs, but no one else made the cut. On top of that, a lot of Soriano and Barney’s value came on defense, which is somewhat questionable given the Cubs level of shifting.
The long and short of it is they weren’t good enough on offense. Only the Mariners got on base less in 2012 than the Cubs. That’s just not a winning formula.
On defense, they were a respectable 9th in the league according to UZR, but they were still a step or two behind the truly elite clubs.
As a staff, they were 27th in baseball with a 7.7 WAR, but 9.9 WAR came from the starters. That is not a mistake. Their relievers were the worst in baseball at -1.5 WAR (cumulative difference varies because of innings).
Jeff Samardjiza had a strong year (3.3) and Dempster (2.1) and Maholm (1.4) each did well in their partial seasons with the club and Garza (1.2) was good enough in his 18 starts.
Collectively, this just wasn’t a good team. They can’t hit, they can’t pitch, and their fielding wasn’t good enough to overcome those two problems. Their total WAR actually over estimates their 2012 win total, but you would expect it to given how bad the bullpen was.
The immediate future doesn’t look too bright, but Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein are at the helm now, so the long term prospects are much brighter. With the fan base and the resources of the Cubs, those two guys should be able to turn things around if they’re given time.
The 2012 Cubs were one of the worst teams in the league and they look to stay there in 2013. Anybody can have a bad year, and as Cubs fans like to say, anybody can have a bad century too.
2012 Grade: F
Early 2013 Projection: 69-93
2012 Awards Series: Recap
This week SABR Toothed Tigers handed out our year end awards for Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, and MVP in each league.
Here’s a quick recap.
AL ROY: Mike Trout
NL ROY: Wade Miley
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
NL Cy Young: R.A. Dickey
AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Ryan Braun
The BBWAA hands out their versions on the same awards starting Monday, so here’s what I expect to happen:
AL ROY: Mike Trout
NL ROY: Bryce Harper
AL Cy Young: David Price
NL Cy Young: R.A. Dickey
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
NL MVP: Buster Posey
The BBWAA has made some really terrible choices in the past, so don’t expect them to get it right. Remember when Neftali Feliz beat Austin Jackson for ROY in 2010 despite playing like 1150 fewer innings?
You can find full articles on every award by clicking the 2012 Recaps tab at the top of the page.
2012 Awards Series: AL MVP
Preseason Prediction: Evan Longoria (3B –TB)
I won’t spend much time defending this one, except to say that Evan Longoria is an elite baseball player who played less than half his team’s games this season. He posted a 2.4 WAR and was limited on defense by injury even when he was in the lineup, so I don’t feel bad about my pick. Players get hurt.
He’s one of the best in the game and is just 27 years old. I’ll probably pick him again next year (I picked him in 2010 too).
And the award goes to…
So this is a pretty controversial topic among baseball people, writers, and fans. It really shouldn’t be, but it is. I’ll be upfront and clear throughout this whole thing.
1) I am a giant Tigers fan (see: name of this website)
2) Mike Trout should win the MVP award.
A couple of notes to start. First, I do not believe that the performance of your team should factor in to voting at all. Neither Trout nor Cabrera is responsible for the other 24 guys on his team. You can’t fault or reward someone for the play of others in this type of award.
Two, if I cared about that, Trout still wins. Trout’s team won more games in a better division than Cabrera’s. You cannot tell me that Cabrera’s team winning 88 games in a worse division makes him the MVP over Trout because the Angels won 89 games and did so in against superior competition.
Third, the Triple Crown (leading the league in AVG/HR/RBI) is cool, but it is not a reason to vote for Cabrera. Let’s consider a theoretical example to make this clear:
Player A: .330, 45 HR, 150 RBI.
Player B: .329, 44 HR, 149 RBI.
In this example, Player A wins the Triple Crown narrowly in every category.
Player C: .365, 50 HR, 150 RBI
Player D: .320, 31 HR, 151 RBI
In this example, Player C does not win the Triple Crown.
Clearly, Player A and Player B are essentially the same player by these three statistics. Player C (who didn’t win the Crown) is clearly a superior player to Player D. Therefore, winning the Triple Crown is not a sufficient reason to be MVP, even if RBI wasn’t a terrible stat.
But none of those arguments explain why Trout is the MVP, they simply explain why certain arguments for Cabrera are invalid. Now let’s make the case for Trout.
Let’s start with Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Trout had a lot more. 10.0 to 7.1. If you trust WAR, this discussion is over, but if you’re still supporting Cabrera, I’ll go on. WAR, as we talked about a couple weeks ago, is essentially trying to measure offense, defense, and baserunning in one single number. You may not agree with its formula, but you can’t disagree with its logic. WAR measures value.
So let’s break down each component of these two players. Baserunning first because it’s easy. The advanced stats favor Trout in a big way. Trout stole 45 more bases. Every single scout, evaluator, and human being I’ve talked to says Trout is better on the bases than Cabrera. Point for Trout (we’ll talk how to weight these later).
Now let’s talk defense. Trout is better. UZR gives Trout an 11.4 to -10.0 advantage. In laymen’s terms, we’re talking about a 2.0 WAR difference just with the gloves. This stands up to the eye test.
Trout is an elite defender who made a ton of great plays this season and he did so at one of the most critical defensive positions on the field. Cabrera’s numbers on defense do not look great, but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because I watched him play every day. Cabrera is better than a lot of his critics say, but he’s not great. If we agree he’s league average, he’s still well behind Trout and I think that is generous. Point Trout.
So let’s review by putting up a simple theoretical formula.
Value = O + D + B
If Trout wins a category, we make the value positive, if Cabrera wins it, we make it negative. If the final value is greater than 0, Trout is MVP. If it’s less than 0, Cabrera is. Simple.
So right now we have
Value = O + D(positive) + B(positive)
In order for Cabrera to be MVP, his value on offense has to exceed Trout’s by more than the sum of Trout’s Defense and Baserunning lead.
Let’s go stat by stat. Cabrera his 44 HR, Trout hit 30. Trout scored 129 runs, Cabrera 120. Cabrera drove in 139, Trout 89. Let’s dispense with RBI because that is a function of where you hit in the order. Trout hit first, so 20-25% of his ABs come with no one on base and the rest come with poor hitters ahead of him. Cabrera gets to hit with Austin Jackson ahead of him a lot. Cabrera had 119 more plate appearances with men on base than Trout in 2012 and while he hit for a higher average in those situations, he had a lower average with the bases empty where Trout topped him by around 80 PAs.
Runs work the same way in Trout’s favor, so I’ll dump those too. Let’s head for the slash lines.
Trout: .326/.399/.564
Cabrera: .330/.393/.606
You might notice Cabrera’s batting average is higher, but Trout more than makes up for it by walking more to lead to a higher OBP for Trout. Trout gets on base more. Cabrera does out slug him, however.
But here’s a key point. If we factor in their stolen bases (because singling and stealing second is virtually the same as doubling as far as SLG is concerned), Trout jumps to .651 over Cabrera’s .612
So far, Trout trails in homeruns, but leads in OBP and passes him in SLG if we allow Trout’s legs to play a role (I’ll even discount baserunning entirely from the final decision if we just factor in SB here).
So what we have here is a picture of Miguel Cabrera being less valuable than Trout on offense. Even if we concede that they are the same, which I would be willing to do for the sake of argument, Trout’s defensive value gives him the award.
Let’s look at wOBA for a minute, which is offense without the SB factor I just included. Cabrera .417, Trout .409. By wRC+, tied at 166. Make all the arguments you want, I can’t see any reasoning that tells me Cabrera is enough better on offense to discount Trout’s sizable defensive advantage.
To make that case, you would have to A) Value Defense so little that it is not even worth having one B) Make the case that Cabrera was more valuable on offense (which I’m not sure you can, certainly not by a lot)
Let’s revisit the equation:
Value = O + D + B
If all three are positive, Trout wins. The only way Cabrera can win is if O is more negative than the sum of D and B. I would argue that O is positive, so this is all moot, but even if you find a way to make O negative, it’s not by much.
Trout is the MVP.
Two final things. One, you could say that Trout missed April and should lose points for that. I would tell you that’s true, except that he still led Cabrera by 2.9 WAR (which factors in how much you play). Two, there is one way to argue for Cabrera.
To make the case for Cabrera, you have to make the case that while he wasn’t worth more on the field, he was worth more in the clubhouse. You could say that Cabrera made his teammates better by being around him and therefore is worth more than Trout because Trout did not do that. That is logically consistent, but I don’t believe it to be true. If you could show me evidence, or even circumstantial conjecture in that direction, I would consider it.
I don’t like that this debate became about stat geeks and purists. We aren’t watching a different game. Stat heads are just willing to look at more stats than AVG/HR/RBI/R/SB because there is more information out there. Those stats should not be the holy grail because they miss so much. Walks matter. Defense matters.
Cabrera had a great year, Trout had a better one.
Full Ballot
10. Josh Hamilton (OF – TEX)
9. Ben Zobrist (All 9 Positions – TB)
8. Joe Mauer (C – MIN)
7. Felix Hernandez (SP – SEA)
6. Austin Jackson (OF – DET)
5. Justin Verlander (SP – DET)
4. Adrian Beltre (3B – TEX)
3. Robinson Cano (2B- NYY)
2. Cabrera (3B –DET)
1. Trout (OF – LAA)
2012 Awards Series: NL MVP
Preseason Prediction: Justin Upton (OF – ARZ)
So this was a bad one. Upton’s 2.5 WAR didn’t even crack the Top 30 in the NL. Don’t get me wrong, .280/.355/.430 is a solid big league season, it’s just nowhere near MVP levels. The talent is there to win an MVP for Upton, but there’s a lot swirling around him at this point in Arizona, so I’m not sure we’ll even see that freakish peak potential that allowed him to go #1 overall in 2005.
And the award goes to…
I think you could make a case for six players. That’s a large MVP group. Buster Posey (8.0), Ryan Braun (7.9), and David Wright (7.8) are virtually indistinguishable by WAR. I’d also include Chase Headley (7.5), Andrew McCutchen (7.4), and Yadier Molina (6.5).
I’d have a hard time arguing against any of those six. Here’s the quick case for each.
Posey led in WAR, OBP, wRC+, and played good defense at a premium position for a really good team.
Braun was a very close 2nd in WAR, tied in wRC+, led in SLG, wOBA, hit 41 bombs, stole 30 bases, and did it under intense steroid scrutiny.
Wright was a little worse on offense than those two, but made up for it with what UZR called a great season on defense to bring his WAR in line with the leaders. It can’t be ignored that Wright did this on a team much less talented than most of his rivals.
Headley is a fun one because he put up great offensive numbers at Petco Park and only missed one game all season. 31 homeruns and 17 steals from the Padres 3B to go along with solid defense. The park holds him back a little on the more conventional side and he’ll lose votes because his team wasn’t great, but Headley should be in this conversation.
McCutchen almost singlehandedly made the Pirates relevant in 2012 and came in 3rd in wRC+. The defensive metrics hate him on defense, which puzzles me a little, so his overall WAR is a little depressed, and in a race this close I’m not sure how to judge it.
Finally, Molina put up phenomenal offensive numbers for a catcher (really for anyone) and continued to be one of the most imposing defenders in the game. The 6.5 WAR isn’t quite on par with the rest of the bunch, but he loses some value because he only players 140 games a year as a catcher.
You can dive into all the statistical details yourselves because there are really too many players to really evaluate in this space, so I’ll give you my take in a crowded field.
I’m hearing from most people in the mainstream media and a lot of more insider types that Posey is likely to run away with this because of his second half surge to lead a good team to the playoffs. That’ll push him over for most voters.
I’m going to take Braun. It’s essentially a tie from any sort of statistical measure, so you have to make a value judgment based on less than objective criteria. All of these guys deserve it, but I’m voting for Braun because he deserves it after his name was tarnished by a faulty drug test last fall.
Braun tested positive for elevated testosterone, but the testing procedure was breached and he won the appeal. However, just the association has put Braun on trial with the public and I’m impressed at how he had another great season even after he “got caught” using steroids.
I don’t buy into the argument that you have to be on a playoff team to win MVP, so that isn’t in my calculus. Braun had a great year and did so while under a microscope than the others weren’t. Granted, points gets to Posey for coming back from the brutal ankle injury and lots of love for Wright, Headley, McCutchen, and Molina as well, but I’m behind Braun.
Full Ballot:
10. Jayson Heyward (OF – ATL)
9. Aaron Hill (2B – ARZ)
8. Clayton Kershaw (SP – LAD)
7. R.A. Dickey (SP – NYM)
6. Headley (3B – SD)
5. Molina (C – STL)
4. Wright (3B – NYM)
3. McCutchen (OF – PIT)
2. Posey (C – SF)
1. Braun (OF – MIL)
2012 Awards Series: NL Cy Young
Preseason Prediction: Cole Hamels (LHP – Philadelphia Phillies)
Hamels had a strong season in 2012 for the disappointing Phillies, posting a 4.5 WAR (good for 7th in the NL) and signing a monster contract extension. He went 17-6 in 215.1 innings with a 3.05 ERA and 3.30 FIP. The strikeout rate was excellent at 9.03 next to a great walk rate of 2.17. The Phillies lefthander didn’t have a good enough year to earn my Cy Young praise, but he had a very strong season and should be acknowledged for it.
And the award goes to…
Just like in the AL, three strong candidates emerge for the 2012 NL Cy Young award, but the SABR Toothed Tigers have to give it to someone who sabermetrics can’t quite understand; R.A. Dickey.
Dickey had a phenomenal season by most standards, but WAR doesn’t like him as much as our other two finalists, Clayton Kershaw and Gio Gonzalez. There is a simple reason for this, however. FIP (one of the biggest drivers of WAR) doesn’t know what to do with knuckleballers because they are so rare and have different results profiles than a standard hurler. That said, Dickey was still 6th in the NL in WAR in 2012.
Dickey’s 20-6 record doesn’t mean anything but he tossed 233.2 innings and posted solid strikeout (8.86) and walk numbers (2.08) to go along with his strong 2.73 ERA. His FIP was elevated, but that’s because FIP doesn’t understand him.
The only thing Gonzalez did better than Dickey was strike hitters out, but he threw way fewer innings walked more and had a higher ERA. WAR likes him better, but that’s the knuckleball problem and nothing else.
Kershaw is the strong contender. He tossed six fewer innings, had a higher K rate and higher BB rate, and posted a lower ERA. The WAR spread is +0.9 WAR for Kershaw, but I can’t help wonder how much that gap would close if FIP understood knuckleballers. It would at least close some.
I think Dickey and Kershaw are both good choices, but it’s hard not to give the tie breaker to the guy who threw more innings for a worse team and did so in such a fun way. Dickey was a great story and I’ll always give the tiebreaker to the better story. Plus it is hard not to love Dickey’s NL leading 5 complete games.
We can find plenty of worthy arms in the NL, but R.A. Dickey is this year’s best.
Full Ballot
5. Cole Hamels (LHP – Philadelphia Phillies)
4. Cliff Lee (LHP – Philadelphia Phillies)
3. Gio Gonzalez (LHP – Washington Nationals)
2. Clayton Kershaw (LHP – Los Angeles Dodgers)
1. R.A. Dickey (RHP – New York Mets)
2012 Awards Series: AL Cy Young
Preseason Prediction: Justin Verlander (RHP- Detroit Tigers)
Verlander entered 2012 in the prime of his career as the reigning AL Cy Young and MVP while looking to cement his place as baseball’s best starting pitcher.
And the award goes to…
Verlander. Three AL pitchers are in the discussion for this honor, but Verlander comes out on top and deserves to win his second consecutive Cy Young.
He threw 238.1 innings, posted a 9.03 K/9 along with his 2.27 BB/9, and ended the season with a 2.64 ERA and 2.94 FIP. All of this comes together in a 6.8 WAR which is the best mark in the AL and in all of baseball in 2012.
But I don’t want WAR to be the end of the discussion because it does a disservice to the other candidates worthy of mention, David Price and Felix Hernandez.
Both Price and Hernandez had great seasons and will finish a strong 2nd and 3rd on my ballot, but Verlander was better. At this point in history, we’re smart enough not to look a pitcher’s W/L record as a measure of value. You can win a lot of games if you aren’t that good and you can lose a bunch of games if you’re great depending on how your team performs around you. Cases in point this year are Phil Hughes’ 16 wins and Cliff Lee’s 6 wins.
Let’s start with ERA. Verlander trailed only Price in this season with a 2.64 ERA to Price’s 2.56. That’s a very small margin, but you have to lean in Verlander’s direction when you consider how poor Verlander’s defense was.
The difference is literally only two earned runs across the course of the entire season. Certainly we can all agree the Rays outdefended the Tigers by two runs over the course of each pitcher’s 30+ starts. FIP agrees by giving Verlander a 2.94 to 3.05 edge. Felix does well by this measure at 2.84.
Turning to strikeouts Verlander leads the pack with 9.03 per 9 to Price’s 8.74 and Hernandez’s 8.65. Price sports the highest walk rate of the pack at 2.52.
This isn’t the clearest of choices at this point. Verlander has the best K rate, the middle BB rate, and the middle ERA and FIP. But the highest WAR. He threw the most innings and did so in front of the worst defense. All three men could lay some claim to the award, but it has to be Verlander.
It has to be Verlander because he threw the most innings out of the group and because he had the worst defense. WAR says Verlander added the most value while he was on the field of the three, but what it doesn’t account for his how his extra workload took the stress off his bullpen, which could then be well rested to support the other members of the staff. Verlander pitched deeper into games and gave the rest of the staff what it needed to perform best in the start before his and the start after his.
He faced 956 batters this season and had a lot of innings extended by poor defense. Imagine how much deeper into games he could have gone if he had Brendan Ryan playing SS behind him like Felix did.
This is not an open and shut case. There are arguments to be made for Price and Hernandez, but Verlander tops Price for me on innings, Ks, BBs, FIP, and defense and Hernandez by innings, Ks, and defense.
It was another great year for the Tigers’ ace and it should end with more hardware on his mantle.
Full Ballot:
5. Max Scherzer (RHP – DET)
4. Chris Sale (LHP – CWS)
3. Price (LHP – TB)
2. Hernandez (RHP – SEA)
1. Verlander (RHP – DET)
2012 Awards Series: Rookies of the Year
With the 2012 season behind us, it’s time for some housekeeping here at SABR Toothed Tigers. Shortly before the World Series, we published my 2012 predictions as heard on The Guy Show for how the divisions and awards would play out.
Now it’s time to hand out some hardware.
Rookies of the Year:
American League
Preseason Prediction: Matt Moore (LHP-Tampa Bay Rays)
Moore was one of the top prospects in baseball in 2011 no matter who you asked and burst onto the scene in grand fashion in the postseason last year. He was a popular pick heading into the season and I certainly thought he’d be a top contender for the award. Moore had some growing pains in 2012, but he actually did have a respectable season.
Moore made 31 starts and posted an 11-11 record in 177.1 innings with a K/9 of 8.88. He walked too many (4.11 per 9IP), but a 3.81 ERA and 3.91 FIP is a strong season for a young rookie lefthander. He posted a 2.3 WAR which was 5th among AL rookie pitchers (4th if you don’t count the seasoned Yu Darvish).
Moore’s season was nothing to sneeze at, but it was a far cry from earning him AL Rookie of the Year honors.
The Award Goes To…
Mike Trout. Obviously. Other rookies had good seasons. Darvish, Jarrod Parker, and Tommy Milone from the mound. Yoenis Cespedes from the batter’s box. But, seriously, Mike Trout ran circles around everyone in this year’s award.
Trout posted an historic 10.0 WAR in 2012 which not only put him atop all American League rookies, it put him above every single player in Major League Baseball. Only three rookies have ever top 8.0 WAR, and none have ever exceeded Trout’s 10.0. The voting will be unanimous when the BBWAA hands out the award, but let’s just hit some numbers quickly just for good measure.
Trout led AL rookies in the following categories (these are just the ones I felt like looking up): hits, homeruns, runs, runs batted in, batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, weighted on base average (wOBA), weighted runs created plus (wRC+), UZR, BSR (baserunning metric), and WAR. Pretty open and shut if you ask me.
The full ballot looks like this:
3. Yoenis Cespedes (OF-Oak)
2. Yu Darvish (SP-TEX)
1. Mike Trout (OF-LAA)
National League:
Preseason Prediction: Devin Mesoraco (C-Cincinnati Reds)
Mesoraco was another popular pick in 2012, so I was not the only one to miss wildly. Mesoraco played in 54 games and posted a pretty terrible 0.1 WAR. The .212/.288/.352 slash line doesn’t help either. The defense was unremarkable and the offense didn’t do anything to make up for it.
I wouldn’t call Mesoraco a bust by any means, but the 24 year old backstop will need to find his form if he wants to catch 120+ games next season. His minor league numbers certainly speak to his talent, so there’s plenty still to like about the Reds catcher.
The Award Goes To…
This one was a little tougher. Okay, a lot tougher. Two clear candidates emerged in my book: Bryce Harper and Wade Miley. Todd Frazier was an option as well, but he’ll have to settle for 3rd place.
Rookie of the Year can be a difficult award to hand out because you’re often comparing players who have totally different jobs. Harper hits second for a contending team and Miley is a starter on a middle of the pack club.
Their WARs were nearly identical at 4.9 for Harper and 4.8 for Miley. Harper played 139 games, got 597 plate appearances and turned those into the following statistical profile:
22 HR, 59 RBI, 98 R, 18 SB, .270/.340/.477, .352 wOBA, 121 wRC+, 9.9 UZR.
Miley made 29 starts and 3 relief appearance totaling 194.2 innings. His line looks something like this:
16-11, 6.66 K/9, 1.71 BB/9, 3.33 ERA, 3.15 FIP
Again, their WARs are almost identical and they have a totally different role. Statistically, it’s hard to really separate the two. I’m going to throw my support to Wade Miley for the following reason, but a vote for Harper is absolutely warranted.
Harper excelled amid a good team having a great year, while Miley picked up the slack for a decent rotation. Miley was the Dbacks best starter by a good margin. Harper was the Nats second best bat, but they also had such a great staff to back them up.
There’s nothing particularly objective about that reasoning, but it’s hard to make an objective case for either of them. I feel pretty confident that Harper and Miley should be 1st and 2nd on the NL ROY ballot, but I really don’t know what order they should be in.
The full ballot looks like this:
3. Todd Frazier (3B, 1B, OF – CIN)
2. Bryce Harper (OF- WSH)
1. Wade Miley (SP-ARZ)
Check back Wednesday for Cy Young winners.
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