Tag Archives: braves

Helping Michael Bourn Find Work

Michael Bourn is still unemployed. He was one of the best players available on the free agent market this year and was one of baseball’s most valuable players in 2012, but he does not have a team lined up for 2013.

Before going any further we can assume that the reason for this is that Bourn wants more money than any team is willing to offer right now and believes that some team will meet his price before the season begins. At some point, a team will either match his price or he will decide to lower his price, which a team will then decide to meet.

That’s a pretty straightforward understanding of how negotiations work. One side or both sides are currently unrealistic about the expectations of the other side. This will change eventually and Bourn will sign, the questions is, with who?

What teams are most likely to pay the most for Bourn?

Bourn is no slouch. He is entering his age 30 season and has posted 4.0 WAR or better in four straight seasons with a 6.4 coming in 2012. He’s an elite defender (career UZR/150 of 11.5 and a UZR of 22.4 in 2012) and baserunner (5 straight years of 40 or more SB) and gets on base at at .340 clip or better.

In terms of straight value, you’re looking at a player who was work between $20 and $30 million last season and figures to be worth at least $15 million or more over each year of a 3 or 4 year deal if he stays healthy. And there is no reason to think he won’t stay healthy.

Throw all of that in a blender with current team rosters and what do you get? A list of teams that might sign Bourn.

Royals (5%):

The Royals probably don’t have the money to swing Bourn, but man do they need him. With two outfield spots filled by Cain and Francoeur, there is a lot of room for improvement. Bourn over Francoeur in 2012 would be worth something like seven wins in the standings. Even if you expect Frenchie to regress upward in 2013, there’s a lot of room to improve on a team that seems like they are committing to going for it over the next two seasons.

Reds (5%):

This only makes sense if the Reds are willing to make Ludwick the highest paid fourth outfielder in baseball. With Choo and Bruce locked into the outfield, this is a long shot but the Reds would benefit greatly from upgrading on defense and at the top of the lineup.

Braves (10%):

The Braves could resign Bourn even after adding Upton. If BJ will move to left to accommodate Bourn, the Braves could put Prado at third and have one of the better lineups in the NL. It might be hard to make that work financially given what some other teams might be willing to offer, but it’s worth exploring for both sides.

Blue Jays (10%):

The Jays are going for it in 2013. That much is clear. They’ve taken on a good amount of payroll through trades over the last couple months, but their outfield is a bit thin. Colby Rasmus is slated to be the everyday centerfielder and he isn’t exactly a picture of consistency. Additionally, Jose Bautista is coming off a wrist injury and Melky Cabrera is plagued by questions of his true ability following a steroid suspension. If the Jays can afford Bourn, he would be a good fit. They probably don’t want to make a four year offer, but if he decides to take a pillow contract, a one year, $18-20 million deal from Toronto might make sense.

Rangers (15%):

The Rangers can and should probably get by with a Martin and Gentry platoon in centerfield, but Bourn would be a nice addition to offset the loss of Josh Hamilton. However, the lineup is already crowded with Andrus, Profar, Olt, and Kinsler, so the Rangers are probably best left to keep their outfield unblocked.

Mets (25%):

The Mets are good fit for Bourn. They need outfield help, presumably have some money to work with and are not that far off from contention. Their rotation has the potential to be great in the coming few seasons and they have a number of players on the roster who could work as compliments to a contending club. They need a couple more core pieces, and a great defensive centerfielder and speed demon would be perfect for them.

White Sox (30%):

The White Sox make a ton of sense for Bourn. De Aza, Viciedo, Rios are capable outfielders on an average team, but they aren’t a group that you imagine would get you to a world series. If Bourn was on the team instead of Viciedo in 2012, they might have beaten out the Tigers for the AL Central. Additionally, Konerko is in the last year of his deal and Dunn has one more after that. A backloaded deal could easily work to make Bourn a piece of the Sox franchise for years to come.

 

2012 Season in Review: National League East

It was a big season for the NL East. The Marlins spent big. The Mets had R.A. Dickey. The Phillies underperformed. The Braves bounced back. The Nationals rose to the occasion.

I predicted the big year from the Nats and the poor showing by the Marlins. I thought too highly of the Phillies and sold the Braves a little short. For a breakdown of how I viewed each team’s 2012, I wrote full pieces on each club.

Here’s how 2012 shook out:

east st

And here are the playoff odds across time:

east odds

This is how I see the division next season:

2013 st

And a final look at my 2012 grades:

2012 grades

The National League East was one of the better divisions in baseball in 2012 and there’s a lot of talent for next season. I like the Nationals to repeat in 2013, but there are a lot of interesting teams…except the Marlins. They will be terrible.

NL East Cy Young: R.A. Dickey

NL East MVP: David Wright

2012 Season in Review: Atlanta Braves

94-68, 2nd in the NL East, 1st Wild Card

Lost in the Play-In Game

The Braves had a great season after a disappointing end to 2011, and in any other season, would have made the playoffs. Unfortunately, the new rules sent them into a one game playoff against the Cardinals to earn a spot in the postseason. In this game, a very questionable infield fly was called, and their last shot at a rally was killed.

But losing a coin-flip game shouldn’t dampen the success of the 2012 Braves. The Braves outfield of Heyward (6.6), Bourn (6.4), and Prado (5.9) was all-world in WAR and played superb defense. Uggla (3.5), Jones (3.0), Simmons (2.2),Jones (3.0),  and played superb defense. Prado at a rally was killed.

a spot in the postseason. In this game, a v McCann (2.0), and Freeman (2.0) showed what a complimentary starting lineup looks like. Every single Braves position player hit the 2.0 starter threshold, and some did so in less than a full season.

The pitching was strong too led by a bonkers-good Kris Medlen (3.9) in the second half. Hudson (2.6), Minor (1.4), and Hanson (1.0) made a full season of starts to varying success, but found good outings from the rest of the piecemeal rotation in Beachy (1.5), Maholm (1.0), and Delgado (1.0).

The bullpen was taking names in 2012 as well. Kimbrel’s 3.6 WAR was an incredible mark for a reliever and the rest of the group posted solid numbers.

In sum, this was a very good club. The offense was great and the starters were solid. The bullpen was lights out. The Braves ran into the poor fortune of having a good season in the first year of a silly new playoff format. They were six games better than the Cardinals during the season but were thrown into a coin flip game to generate fake drama and it cost them. Who knows what would have happened if they had earned a real playoff spot under the old system.

But 2012 was Chipper’s farewell season and most Braves fans will remember that as well. They’ve parted with Bourn and added BJ Upton, so the 2013 Braves should be equally as competitive.

2012 Grade: B

Early 2013 Projection: 91-71

Lots of Baseball Happens: Signings, Extensions, and Trades

In the most cliché move yet this offseason, the hot stove is heating up as baseball’s GMs decided to start making moves in the week before the Winter Meetings in Nashville. Because my day job doesn’t allow me to spend the 12 hours a day I would like to writing about baseball, I’m going to have to get you caught up at lightning speed.

Here are the big moves from this week and my brief take on each:

Angels sign RP Ryan Madson, 1 year, $6 million plus incentives

Excellent move by the Angels who followed up by dumping Jordon Walden on the Braves for Tommy Hanson. Madson was a solid reliever for the Phillies for several years before signing a 1 year deal with the Reds last season. He got injured before the season and never threw a pitch, so it’s hard to judge exactly how healthy he may be. The Angels took that risk and added Madson to their bullpen on a one year deal during and offseason that has seen two meh relievers (League and Broxton) get three year contracts. Grade: A

Braves sign OF BJ Upton , 5 years, $75 million

The Braves needed to resign or replace Michael Bourn and this will do the trick. I have my doubts about Upton going forward and think he’s a guy who peaked early and will never live up to his skills. That said, he’s been a useful big leaguer with flashes of star power in the past and the Braves are only signing him through his age 32 season. I don’t love this deal, but it’s not a huge risk given how big contracts are getting. I think Upton has a couple more $15 million seasons in him, I’m just not sure how many and when they’ll come. I’m glad my team isn’t taking this risk, but I’m guessing the Braves won’t regret this and if they do, it won’t be a huge regret. Grade: B-

Nationals acquire Denard Span from the Twins for P Alex Meyer

The Tigers fan in me is thrilled Span is leaving the AL Central. The analyst in me thinks the Nationals made a shrewd move here. A cost controlled Span for three more seasons will do wonders between Harper and Werth and can provide a nice boost at the top of the order in a much cheaper way than the free agent options. Meyer is an interesting prospect, but most of the people I’ve talked to or read seem to think he’s a risky-high upside type. Span fills a hole in the Nats outfield and they traded from pitching depth, and they have a lot of that. The Twins have Ben Revere to fill the Span void and they do need a lot of pitching. I like this deal for them except that I think they probably could have gotten more in a deal for Span. Grade (Nats): A, Grade (Twins): C+

Pirates sign Russell Martin, 2 years, $17 million

The Pirates got something they needed. Offense. Martin hits for power and walks at a decent rate while provide some value on defense through solid pitching framing and debatable throwing skills. He’s a good fit for the Pirates and it’s hard to call $8.5 million for a free agent who can easily get to 2.0 WAR an overpay. Can’t complain if I’m a Bucs fan, but I really just want to point out that the Pirates outbid the Yankees for a player. The Pirates…outbid…the Yankees. With money. Grade: B

Mets extend David Wright, 7 years, $122 million

This extension starts after 2013 and carries Wright into his age 37 season. I was preparing a “What Should the Mets Pay Wright” piece when the news broke of this extension and I have to say, the Mets are getting a really solid yearly price for the cost of guaranteeing a lot of years. This is similar to the Longoria deal in a lot of ways except Longoria signed his four years ahead of free agency and Wright signed his one year ahead. Wright proved, through signing this deal, that he is committed to winning in New York and he’ll likely be a Met for life. Assuming he stays healthy, it’s hard for me to see a way in which this deal becomes a mess. It might not payoff, but it should mostly pay off. Grade: B+

The Winter Meetings are coming next week and a lot more action should be coming. Check back with STT for complete coverage.

122 days until Opening Day.