Goofy Leaderboards: Opposite Field
The opposite field is well respected in baseball. Complete hitters “go the other way” and do so with authority.
Whether it’s a lefty going to left field or a righty going to right field, it’s an important part of a balanced hitter. But who did it best in 2012?
Among qualified hitters, Carlos Gonzalez had the highest average the opposite way, .536, but that doesn’t really tell the whole story. That just tells you that when he hit the ball to left field, he got a high percentage of hits.
The most opposite field hits belong to Derek Jeter by a whole lot. He had 86 opposite field hits which was 25 hits better than the players (Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Gonzalez) who tied for second. But Jeter also had the most balls in play hit the opposite way, so you’d expect him to have a high number of hits to right.
Carlos Gonzalez leads in efficiency the other way, Jeter leads in chances and raw number.
Adrian Gonzalez leads if we’re looking for two base hits the other way with 25 and Elvis Andrus claims a league leading 6 triples to the opposite field.
Three hitters led the league with 10 opposite field homeruns and none of them were named Miguel Cabrera (he hit 9). Michael Morse, Andrew McCutchen, and Russell Martin hold that honor.
Michael Morse, not too surprisingly, slugged the highest the other way, posting a gaudy .913 mark when he hit the ball to right field. He can also claim the highest wRC+ (273) while CarGo grabs the highest wOBA (.586).
If we want to go farther, which we obviously must, Greg Dobbs led the league with a 41.0% line drive rate the other way. While Ben Revere hit the most grounders, 47.9%. Fly balls are Adam LaRoche’s game, as he hit 76.1% of his opposite field contact in the air.
Ichiro and Norichika Aoki each had 11 infield hits the other way, but Colby Rasmus and Erick Aybar each dropped down 8 successful bunt hits to the opposite field.
All this is well and good, but who was the worst? Who had the fewer hits the other way in 2012?
That honor goes to Mr. Aaron Hill from the Arizona Diamondbacks with a whopping 15! Now that could be poor contact or bad luck, but it’s hard to ignore the 6 MLB hitters who only hit the ball to the opposite field 81 times in 2012.
Each of these men; Ryan Doumit, Everth Cabrera, Will Venable, Drew Stubbs, Adam Dunn, and Chipper Jones, can claim to have made contact the other way the fewest times of anyone.
If we sum it all together and ask wRC+, the worst opposite field hitter of 2012 was Phillies SS Jimmy Rollins with a wonderful -16 wRC+. That’s 8% worse than the second worst guy!
Opposite field hitting is a key piece of any hitter’s game, but it’s clearly a bigger piece for some. Certain hitters like Cabrera, CarGo, and Adrian Gonzalez like to go the other way with authority, and some just like doing it period like Jeter.
Others aren’t so skillful, like Hill and Rollins, and probably should just stick to the pull field.
Goofy Leaderboards: Pitch Type and Velocity
Every pitcher has a go to pitch. That pitch they go to when the need a big out in a tight game. The pitch they aren’t afraid to throw with the season on the line.
A lot of guys who with the heater, some with the hook. But who goes with each pitch the most. In other words, who leads the league in throwing certain pitches?
For qualified starting pitchers, Mr. Fastball is Indians righthander Justin Masterson who went to the fastball 80.7% of the time in 2012. His only other pitch was his slider, which accounted for the rest. Certainly sounds like someone who should be facing righties out the pen, but the Indians don’t have a lot of options.
Madison Bumgarner is the man to know if you like sliders, as he throws them a whopping 39.0% of the time. He matches that with a fastball and the very occasional curve and changeup.
The cutter belongs to Dan Haren who goes to that pitch 35.6% of the time. No one else even tops 30.0%.
34.1% is the top mark for curveballs and that belongs to the Pirates’ AJ Burnett who sets the pace by more than 3.0%.
James Shields topped teammate Jeremy Hellickson in a close race, 28.9% to 28.3%, when it comes to throwing changeups in 2012. Maybe the Rays catchers just like calling them.
Cubs pitcher Jeff Samardjiza is the man to know if you like splitters as he goes to that pitch 18.6% of the time.
You’ll never guess who owns the knuckleball category. It’s a guy named R.A. Dickey, who floated a knuckler 85.4% of the time. The story here is that no other qualified starter threw one at all.
If you like velocity, here are the average highs/lows for each pitch:
FB: David Price 95.5, R.A. Dickey 83.4
SL: Madison Bumgarner 87.5, Bronson Arroyo 76.1
CT: Edwin Jackson 92.6, Mark Buehrle 82.9
CB: Lucas Harrell 83.1, Bronson Arroyo 71.2
CH: Felix Hernandez 88.7, Barry Zito 75.0
SF: Yu Darvish 87.7, Ricky Nolasco 80.8
This doesn’t tell us who has the best of each pitch, but it tells us something. And that’s all we try to do here at STT, give you more information about the game we all love.
Only 134 days until Opening Day.
The Book on Austin Jackson
Starting today and carrying on indefinitely, we’ll be posting a series on the Detroit Tigers known as “The Book on…” This series will combine a lot of different types of analysis to give a comprehensive overview on a given player.
This is essentially our way of profiling Tigers players and should give you a background on what to expect from a given member of the squad. Each piece will draw on my own observations, statistical data, and information I’ve gleaned listening to scouts and commentators whose opinions I trust on the matter.
I thought I’d start with Austin Jackson because he deserves more credit than he got in the MVP vote last night (i.e. more than none) and he’s also the Tigers leadoff hitter. Without further ado…
What People Think:
Austin Jackson was certainly a well thought of prospect in the Yankees system when he was traded to Detroit after the 2009 season, but there was always some debate about just how good he would be.
The sense in around the league is that he’ll grow into his power and the 16 homeruns he hit in 2012 were the norm and not an aberration. His defense is widely respected even if he gets poor marks for never diving and most seemed to really like the new batting stance he unveiled in 2012.
Generally speaking, I think the conventional wisdom on Jackson is that he’s a solid regular with some shot at becoming an occasional All-Star.
What the Numbers Say:
Jackson’s spent three seasons in the majors and he’s walked more and more every season and in 2012, his strikeouts fell substantially. It appears as if his plate discipline is improving, which is almost always a good indicator that a player will be successful.
He’s also hit for more power every year and has shown the ability to maintain a high BABIP. The baserunning numbers appear to be getting worse, but I think that could be a function of him becoming a better hitter, meaning he doesn’t need to add as much value with his legs. It also seems as if the Tigers are staying away from the stolen base as an organization, so Jackson’s speed is rarely on display.
On defense, the metrics like him, but they probably don’t like him as much as the naked eye does. The measures are imperfect, but they all say he’s above average to great.
On the whole, if you look at his statistical profile, Jackson appears to be heading into his peak after a 5.5 WAR season in 2012.
What My Eyes Tell Me:
I will admit that I was very skeptical of trading for Jackson at the time. It felt like a salary dump that didn’t make the team better, but it’s actually turned out to be a shrewd move.
I saw Jackson play in the minors once in 2009 while he was hitting third for the SWB Yankees and I can’t say I was tremendously impressed. Granted, it was four at bats and a couple chances in the field, but nothing about him jumped out at me. I had heard the buzz from the scouting community and Yankees fans, but I hadn’t really seen much to excite me.
The minor league numbers were there to predict this, but I didn’t really see it at the time. Perhaps I was blinded by fury at the Granderson deal (Love you, Curtis!).
At any rate, Jackson has delivered on his promise. He put up solid numbers in his rookie season, but I still was not impressed in the way that I am now. He was a high BABIP guy who struckout a lot. His range in the outfield was good, but I didn’t think his reads or arm were that good and he never dove.
I expected a decline in 2011 and made it one of my The Guy Show predictions before the season. I nailed it, but not for the right reasons. He regressed in 2011, but it wasn’t for good. I thought it was for good. I believed he’d settle in as a .260 type hitter who struckout too much and walked too little. I thought he’d be a 10 HR guy with 20 SB and respectable defense.
Don’t get me wrong, that’s a useful MLB player, but it wasn’t enough to fill the Granderson void who was having a 40 HR season at the time.
Then he went to work after the 2011 season and came to spring training in 2012 ready to break out.
He changed his swing, getting rid of the leg kick, and the strikeouts came down. He added power to his stroke and walked a lot more. He stole fewer bases, but he didn’t need to. He was one of the better offensive pieces in the game for most of the first half and certainly led the Tigers offense until Cabrera’s midseason charge.
Jackson’s injury during late May was a big drag on the club and he really got the team going when he came back. It’s very clear his success at the top of the order contributed in a big way to their strong season.
I also think his defense has gotten a lot better, even if everyone loved it before. The little things are improving a lot, as you would expect them to. The range is still excellent, but the reads are better too. His arm is still just okay in my book, but he can unleash some great throws every now and then.
He still won’t dive, except for that one time this season, but hopefully that will come now that he’s got a mentor in Torii Hunter flanking him in RF.
My favorite thing about Jackson is that I can always tell when he’s going to catch the ball from the moment it’s hit. You can tell by the way he moves. If he’s not running top speed, he’ll catch it. It’s comforting for a fan to see someone and know the ball’s going to land in his glove.
All in all, I’m now on board with Jackson as a potential All-Star. He should have easily made the team this year, but got bounced because Ron Washington is silly. Jackson had an awesome 2012 and I think he’ll repeat it and maybe get better. He could be a 4.0-5.0 win player for years to come and maybe have a 6.0 win season in him in the next couple years. I think Hunter will be a big help and we could really see Jackson mature into a top flight all-around player.
The Dotted Line:
Everyone loves contract speculation, so I will have to oblige. Jackson will be arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason, so he’s due a raise for the first time. MLB Trade Rumors projects he’ll make $3.1 million in 2013, but the Tigers never actually go through the arbitration process, so it’s an inexact science.
He’s a good candidate for a contract extension and it’s something I think the Tigers would like to explore, but they have pressing concerns on different fronts. Jackson is under control through 2015, and Verlander, Scherzer, and Porcello come due after 2014 so they may take precedent this offseason.
If the Tigers explored a contract extension with Jackson, I think something like 5 years, $54 million would make sense. $4m in 2013, $6m in 2014, $10m in 2015, $12m in 2016-17. That buys out his remaining arbitration years and two free agent seasons, which accounts for his ages 26-30 seasons, also known as a player’s prime.
If Jackson is willing to sign for anything less, I’d pull the trigger today.
Fantasy-land:
For those of you who play fantasy baseball, Jackson is a good bet, but don’t go crazy. In a standard league (BA/R/HR/RBI/SB), he’ll help in average, runs, and give a decent showing in homeruns, but the RBI will be low and the steals don’t look to ever get above 20. A lot of his value is tied to his walks and defense, so he’s worth less in fantasy-land than he is in the real world.
That said, he’s a good player to have behind your stars because he gives you at least something in every category.
The Lead:
This section is buried ironically, but it’s the basic summation of all the information presented above. Austin Jackson is a talented player heading into his prime and I think he’s got a lot of good baseball ahead of him. He’s a good target for a contract extension and he’s a nice piece of a winning fantasy baseball team.
Jackson was one of the top players in baseball in 2012 and doesn’t appear to be slowing down.
2012 Awards Series: Recap
This week SABR Toothed Tigers handed out our year end awards for Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, and MVP in each league.
Here’s a quick recap.
AL ROY: Mike Trout
NL ROY: Wade Miley
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
NL Cy Young: R.A. Dickey
AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Ryan Braun
The BBWAA hands out their versions on the same awards starting Monday, so here’s what I expect to happen:
AL ROY: Mike Trout
NL ROY: Bryce Harper
AL Cy Young: David Price
NL Cy Young: R.A. Dickey
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
NL MVP: Buster Posey
The BBWAA has made some really terrible choices in the past, so don’t expect them to get it right. Remember when Neftali Feliz beat Austin Jackson for ROY in 2010 despite playing like 1150 fewer innings?
You can find full articles on every award by clicking the 2012 Recaps tab at the top of the page.
2012 Awards Series: AL MVP
Preseason Prediction: Evan Longoria (3B –TB)
I won’t spend much time defending this one, except to say that Evan Longoria is an elite baseball player who played less than half his team’s games this season. He posted a 2.4 WAR and was limited on defense by injury even when he was in the lineup, so I don’t feel bad about my pick. Players get hurt.
He’s one of the best in the game and is just 27 years old. I’ll probably pick him again next year (I picked him in 2010 too).
And the award goes to…
So this is a pretty controversial topic among baseball people, writers, and fans. It really shouldn’t be, but it is. I’ll be upfront and clear throughout this whole thing.
1) I am a giant Tigers fan (see: name of this website)
2) Mike Trout should win the MVP award.
A couple of notes to start. First, I do not believe that the performance of your team should factor in to voting at all. Neither Trout nor Cabrera is responsible for the other 24 guys on his team. You can’t fault or reward someone for the play of others in this type of award.
Two, if I cared about that, Trout still wins. Trout’s team won more games in a better division than Cabrera’s. You cannot tell me that Cabrera’s team winning 88 games in a worse division makes him the MVP over Trout because the Angels won 89 games and did so in against superior competition.
Third, the Triple Crown (leading the league in AVG/HR/RBI) is cool, but it is not a reason to vote for Cabrera. Let’s consider a theoretical example to make this clear:
Player A: .330, 45 HR, 150 RBI.
Player B: .329, 44 HR, 149 RBI.
In this example, Player A wins the Triple Crown narrowly in every category.
Player C: .365, 50 HR, 150 RBI
Player D: .320, 31 HR, 151 RBI
In this example, Player C does not win the Triple Crown.
Clearly, Player A and Player B are essentially the same player by these three statistics. Player C (who didn’t win the Crown) is clearly a superior player to Player D. Therefore, winning the Triple Crown is not a sufficient reason to be MVP, even if RBI wasn’t a terrible stat.
But none of those arguments explain why Trout is the MVP, they simply explain why certain arguments for Cabrera are invalid. Now let’s make the case for Trout.
Let’s start with Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Trout had a lot more. 10.0 to 7.1. If you trust WAR, this discussion is over, but if you’re still supporting Cabrera, I’ll go on. WAR, as we talked about a couple weeks ago, is essentially trying to measure offense, defense, and baserunning in one single number. You may not agree with its formula, but you can’t disagree with its logic. WAR measures value.
So let’s break down each component of these two players. Baserunning first because it’s easy. The advanced stats favor Trout in a big way. Trout stole 45 more bases. Every single scout, evaluator, and human being I’ve talked to says Trout is better on the bases than Cabrera. Point for Trout (we’ll talk how to weight these later).
Now let’s talk defense. Trout is better. UZR gives Trout an 11.4 to -10.0 advantage. In laymen’s terms, we’re talking about a 2.0 WAR difference just with the gloves. This stands up to the eye test.
Trout is an elite defender who made a ton of great plays this season and he did so at one of the most critical defensive positions on the field. Cabrera’s numbers on defense do not look great, but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because I watched him play every day. Cabrera is better than a lot of his critics say, but he’s not great. If we agree he’s league average, he’s still well behind Trout and I think that is generous. Point Trout.
So let’s review by putting up a simple theoretical formula.
Value = O + D + B
If Trout wins a category, we make the value positive, if Cabrera wins it, we make it negative. If the final value is greater than 0, Trout is MVP. If it’s less than 0, Cabrera is. Simple.
So right now we have
Value = O + D(positive) + B(positive)
In order for Cabrera to be MVP, his value on offense has to exceed Trout’s by more than the sum of Trout’s Defense and Baserunning lead.
Let’s go stat by stat. Cabrera his 44 HR, Trout hit 30. Trout scored 129 runs, Cabrera 120. Cabrera drove in 139, Trout 89. Let’s dispense with RBI because that is a function of where you hit in the order. Trout hit first, so 20-25% of his ABs come with no one on base and the rest come with poor hitters ahead of him. Cabrera gets to hit with Austin Jackson ahead of him a lot. Cabrera had 119 more plate appearances with men on base than Trout in 2012 and while he hit for a higher average in those situations, he had a lower average with the bases empty where Trout topped him by around 80 PAs.
Runs work the same way in Trout’s favor, so I’ll dump those too. Let’s head for the slash lines.
Trout: .326/.399/.564
Cabrera: .330/.393/.606
You might notice Cabrera’s batting average is higher, but Trout more than makes up for it by walking more to lead to a higher OBP for Trout. Trout gets on base more. Cabrera does out slug him, however.
But here’s a key point. If we factor in their stolen bases (because singling and stealing second is virtually the same as doubling as far as SLG is concerned), Trout jumps to .651 over Cabrera’s .612
So far, Trout trails in homeruns, but leads in OBP and passes him in SLG if we allow Trout’s legs to play a role (I’ll even discount baserunning entirely from the final decision if we just factor in SB here).
So what we have here is a picture of Miguel Cabrera being less valuable than Trout on offense. Even if we concede that they are the same, which I would be willing to do for the sake of argument, Trout’s defensive value gives him the award.
Let’s look at wOBA for a minute, which is offense without the SB factor I just included. Cabrera .417, Trout .409. By wRC+, tied at 166. Make all the arguments you want, I can’t see any reasoning that tells me Cabrera is enough better on offense to discount Trout’s sizable defensive advantage.
To make that case, you would have to A) Value Defense so little that it is not even worth having one B) Make the case that Cabrera was more valuable on offense (which I’m not sure you can, certainly not by a lot)
Let’s revisit the equation:
Value = O + D + B
If all three are positive, Trout wins. The only way Cabrera can win is if O is more negative than the sum of D and B. I would argue that O is positive, so this is all moot, but even if you find a way to make O negative, it’s not by much.
Trout is the MVP.
Two final things. One, you could say that Trout missed April and should lose points for that. I would tell you that’s true, except that he still led Cabrera by 2.9 WAR (which factors in how much you play). Two, there is one way to argue for Cabrera.
To make the case for Cabrera, you have to make the case that while he wasn’t worth more on the field, he was worth more in the clubhouse. You could say that Cabrera made his teammates better by being around him and therefore is worth more than Trout because Trout did not do that. That is logically consistent, but I don’t believe it to be true. If you could show me evidence, or even circumstantial conjecture in that direction, I would consider it.
I don’t like that this debate became about stat geeks and purists. We aren’t watching a different game. Stat heads are just willing to look at more stats than AVG/HR/RBI/R/SB because there is more information out there. Those stats should not be the holy grail because they miss so much. Walks matter. Defense matters.
Cabrera had a great year, Trout had a better one.
Full Ballot
10. Josh Hamilton (OF – TEX)
9. Ben Zobrist (All 9 Positions – TB)
8. Joe Mauer (C – MIN)
7. Felix Hernandez (SP – SEA)
6. Austin Jackson (OF – DET)
5. Justin Verlander (SP – DET)
4. Adrian Beltre (3B – TEX)
3. Robinson Cano (2B- NYY)
2. Cabrera (3B –DET)
1. Trout (OF – LAA)
Is Now the Time to Trade Justin Upton?
So the pundit echo chamber buzz of the week is about the Diamondbacks listening to offers on Justin Upton, their 25 year old RF coming off a down season. You may remember him from such posts as, “I Thought He Would Win MVP this season.”
Needless to say, I saw a good deal of potential in Upton entering this season and haven’t lost a ton of faith in him after a meh 2012.
But should the Diamondbacks trade him?
As always, it depends. If someone makes a really good offer, you should always take it, but if we’re talking about reasonable offers, I would argue it depends a lot on what players you get back.
That sounds like a stupid answer, but I mean it in a very specific way. You should trade Upton now if you’re getting back big league players. For example, Dave Cameron at Fangraphs evaluated an Upton for Andrus deal. That’s a deal you take.
But if it’s for prospects, I’m waiting.
But not because I’m someone who wants to see proven talent and all that, I’m waiting because this is the wrong time to trade Upton. His value is never going to be lower. He’s coming off a down season that followed a great year. You’re selling low on your most valuable asset if you deal him now.
That’s a fine strategy if the deal you want won’t be available during the season. The Rangers won’t deal Andrus or other big league pieces in July. So if you want an MLB level guy, pull the trigger.
If you want a massive prospect haul, wait. Those guys will be available in July because the team you’re dealing with won’t have to subtract from the big league team to get Upton, and they’ll be more desperate. The options will be more limited.
There are 3-5 OF on the market right now who can be as good as Upton in the short run. At the 2013 deadline, that number should be much lower.
Hold on to Justin Upton because he’s either going to help you contend in 2013 or bring you a bigger return than dealing him now.
Tigers Perspective: Lots of people are asking if the Tigers should target Upton, but I can’t see them doing it. I don’t know for sure what Arizona is asking for, but I think you’re talking about Castellanos, Smyly, and more. That’s a high price to pay for a player coming off a down season. The Tigers have a loaded 3-4-5 combo for the next two seasons and a solid leadoff man. They need depth more than they need star power. Pass.
MLB Win Totals Project the Electoral College
Since SABR Toothed Tigers is run by a Political Science graduate student, we couldn’t ignore the presidential election. However, this is a non-partisan site that doesn’t want anyone to be put off, so we’re releasing our Electoral map based entirely on baseball.
Here’s how it works. We take the swing states as listed at 270towin.com (NV, CO, IA, WI, MI, OH, PA, NH, VA, NC, and FL) and apply baseball! The non-swing states go to the candidate that should win them and the swing states are determined with a simple formula.
That formula is this: Whichever baseball team(s) dominate(s) that state’s television viewing is assigned to that state. So New Hampshire is the Red Sox and the Pirates and Phillies are Pennsylvania, etc.
Sum(2012 Wins) – Sum(2008 Wins) = State win total
If state win total is positive, Obama wins.
If state win total is negative, Romney wins.
Basically, are you better off this year than you were when Obama was elected. Here are the results.
This specific formula is probably unlikely if you ask someone who actually understands politics, but most cable news channels don’t put those people on TV anyway, so our view is just as valid as theirs.
Based on the MLB Win Total Model here at STT, we project President Obama will be reelected 289-249.
It’s Good to be Zach Greinke
It should come as no surprise to anyone that Zach Greinke is the top starting pitcher on the market this offseason. He may not turn out to be the best value, but he is the best. It helps that Cole Hamles and Matt Cain signed extensions this season, but that doesn’t take away from how good Greinke is. He made my list of aces last month and I’m comfortable saying he would be the #1 or #2 starter on every team except the Phillies.
Most reports seem to indicate Greinke will fetch a deal of 5-6 years worth $95-$120 million. His most recent employer, the Angels are heavily in the running, but every MLB will likely kick the tires. He would make every club better, it will just be a choice of how much you can afford to spend on your rotation.
Some in the media have speculated Greinke won’t fit in a big market because of a history of anxiety and depression, and what is clearly an introverted personality. I think their view is wrong in the sense that he couldn’t excel there, but he might choose a smaller media market because he will enjoy it more.
I think all other things equal, he’d avoid Boston or New York, but won’t rule them out based solely on the media narrative that he can’t handle them.
So if we agree Greinke will command a deal of the size I predicted and that every team in baseball would benefit from having him, who are the likely Greinke suitors?
The Angels are the obvious choice because they jettisoned Santana and Haren to free up the money. They loved him down the stretch there and he would fit in well with Weaver and Wilson going forward. The Angels have the resources, the need, and the familiarity to make them a player.
The Rangers make sense, too. They have the payroll flexibility and could use a reliable frontman instead of their revolving #1 spot of the last few years (Darvish, Holland, Harrison, Lee, etc). The Yankees and Red Sox both need pitching, but Boston seems better able to afford it than New York considering the Yankees’ desire to get under the luxury tax cap by 2014. The Orioles and Blue Jays should be in, but maybe not at the asking price.
Many speculated that the Royals could reunite with Greinke, but adding Ervin Santana’s $13 million seems to have indicated they won’t be making a push. The White Sox could be interested given their push to trade for him in July, but it’s hard to say if their recent extension to Peavy will block out too much money in the short term.
In the NL, the Braves, Cubs, and Dodgers seem like possible fits. Obviously we learned last year that the Mystery Team is usually involved, but this seems like a pretty accurate list of teams that will play big on the right hander.
For me, the team that signs Greinke will be in Los Angeles. It will be the Angels or the Dodgers. Both have the money and the need and both are good environments to pitch in. There will be a lot of teams involved, so predicting the landing spot is tough, but I’d take these two clubs against the field.
It’s not every year that you can add an ace to your staff through Free Agency, and it’s not every year that the market is as soft as it is this year. Translation? It’s good to be Zach Greinke right now.
Tigers One Win from World Series: Fans Excited…and Surprised?
As I write this, the Tigers are one game away from their first World Series trip in six years and just their third in the last 43. With another superb outing from Justin Verlander last night, the Tigers have a 3-0 series lead on the struggling Yankees and send Max Scherzer to the hill tonight to try and punch their ticket to the Fall Classic.
But things haven’t always seemed so sunny in Detroit. For much of the summer, there was serious malaise hanging over Tigers fans everywhere. Maybe even downright panic? You couldn’t take to Twitter with the #tigers hashtag without seeing hundreds of people complaining about the team and preparing for next year.
Then a funny thing happened. The Tigers ended up here. Let’s see how that transpired.
The first thing to know is a cliché piled on top of an axiom. It’s a long season. Over a 162 game season, there is variation in how well a team plays that almost always balances out in the end. Basically, the Tigers played their “bad” baseball from late April to June and their good baseball from July to the present while the White Sox did the opposite. At the end of the season, the Tigers had been a better team, but for most of the season, it seemed like that wasn’t the case because of the order in which things happened.
That’s a pretty philosophical argument for the average sports fan, but it’s true. That being said, we should also consider our preseason expectations. Every single expert prediction put the Tigers atop the AL Central. All of them. That uniformity was based on a team that won the division by 15 games in 2011 and added Prince Fielder and a full season of Doug Fister to a team that only lost Victor Martinez. In addition, the White Sox shipped a couple of pieces out of town and appeared like they were headed for a rebuilding year (I picked the Sox to finish dead last).
All that makes us think this division should have been a runaway. Yet baseball happened. The White Sox played over their heads thanks to bounce back years from Adam Dunn and Alex Rios and a career year from AJ Pierzynski. Then there was Jake Peavy staying healthy and Chris Sale having a breakout year, while somehow avoiding Tommy John surgery despite a throwing motion that makes my elbow hurt just by watching.
I contend that we didn’t miss on the Tigers projection; we missed on the White Sox. On The Guy Show in March I predicted a Tigers division title with about 92 wins. They won the division with 88 wins. That’s 96% of the wins I thought they’d have. The most I heard anyone predict was ESPN’s Mark Simon, who said 98. I think it’s fair to say, the overall win total was only slightly below what we thought would happen. It was the White Sox we missed on, not the Tigers.
I think the other reason we saw so much fan angst in the D is because a lot of fans don’t watch much baseball other than Tigers games. People were often frustrated by things the team did, even though they were actually performing a lot better than most teams in baseball.
Let’s explore this a little further. Take a guess, where would you rank the Tigers pitching staff as a whole this season? Just base it on performance, not potential.
Using Fangraph’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR), the Tigers had the best pitching in baseball with 24.8 WAR. Here’s how the rest of the top five looks:
2. Rangers, 23.9 WAR
3. Rays, 23.2 WAR
4. Nationals 21.4 WAR
5. Reds 21.0 WAR
Now WAR is just shorthand for total contribution, so if you aren’t yet convinced, we can break it down a little further, but those WAR numbers line up with the eye test. The Tigers were 4th in strikeouts per 9 (K/9) with 8.29 and 6th in walks per 9 (BB/9) with 2.76. They were 4th in FIP and 5th in xFIP, and trailed only the Rays among AL teams. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, so it factors out defense, which is out of the pitchers control. xFIP normalizes that number for ballpark factors and expected homerun rates (which tend to fluctuate widely). Basically, this paints a picture of the Tigers as one of the top teams in the league on the mound.
Switching to the batter’s box, the Tigers also stack up nicely. Sorting by wRC+, the Tigers come in 4th in baseball at 105. The top five looks like this:
1. Yankees 113
2. Angels 112
3. Cards 107
4. Tigers 105
5. Rangers 105
If you’re wondering, wRC+ is a metric that compares a team’s offensive output to the rest of the league in runs (100 is average) and controlling for park factors. If we look at wOBA, which is OPS on steroids, the Tigers come in 7th, but that doesn’t control for park factors, so teams like the Rockies are ahead of them. wOBA essentially breaks each action down to its actual run value, so unlike OBP, not every hit is the same and unlike SLG, a double is not twice as valuable as a single. For a complete explanation, see this.
If you’re still weary of some of these sabermetric tools, let’s look at a more conventional measure. The Tigers were 3rd in baseball in OBP and first in the league in OBP with men in scoring position. I bet you didn’t know that. Seems like they got on base and had timely hits.
The Tigers were a top pitching staff and a top offense in 2012. They only did one thing poorly, played defense.
By Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), only three teams had a worse UZR than the Tigers’ mark of -28.1 in 2012. In simple terms, that amounts to about three wins worse than average on defense. Another metric, DRS, puts them at -31, which is good for 6th worst. This passes the eye test as well, the Tigers played poor defense in 2012.
So with that recap of the pitching, offense, and defense of the 2012 Tigers, we get the image of a pretty good team. Yet not everyone felt great about them for most of the year. I think that’s because the White Sox over-performed and most fans aren’t really aware of how other teams play. They look at a team that is inconsistent and think, “Man, other teams aren’t like this.” Actually, they are.
The Tigers had a good season and they are built for success in October. The starting pitching is clicking and the Tigers’ key weakness, defense, is performing really well. Mostly because Jhonny Peralta decided to become an all-world shortstop last week.
Things look pretty good right now, even if they didn’t in June. The Tigers are one win from the Fall Classic and five from a championship. The 2011 club lost the ALCS 4-2 to the Rangers. The 2012 club has already guaranteed a better finish.
I wrote a column for The Eastern Echo in April saying, “THIS COULD BE THE YEAR,” and I’ve said it again and again on Twitter (@NeilWeinberg44). I believe it. This is a good team built to win in the postseason with elite starting pitching and a strong lineup with an elite core.
So I apologize if this post was rather long, but I thought it best for us to get caught up and answer the question of how we went from the ledge of a tall building to the brink of ecstasy.
Tune in tonight and put the champagne on ice. Five more wins.
New English D 