How Was The Game? (October 8, 2013)
Dramatic.
Tigers 8, A’s 6 (Series tied 2-2)
Doug Fister (1 GS, 6 IP, 4.50 ERA, 5.38 FIP) got the ball with season on the line and things looked a little worrisome early as he fought with his command and the Tigers found themselves down 3-0 entering the bottom of the 5th. Things changed when Fielder and Martinez singled and Jhonny Peralta tied it with a blast to left field. With the score tied at 3 entering the 7th, Jim Leyland didn’t mess around and gave the ball to Max Scherzer who gave up a run in the 7th and left the Tigers were staring elimination in the eyes until Martinez smacked an opposite field, potentially fan-aided homerun to tie it at 4. and then the Tigers pushed across another to take the 5-4 lead. The 8th got scary as the first two men reached and then the Tigers put Smith on to set up a bases loaded and no out situation. Scherzer wasn’t intimidated, however, as he struck out the next two and then induced a fly out to send the Tigers into the bottom half. They pushed across a run on a wild pitch and then Infante knocked in a pair to extend the lead to four. Benoit wasn’t sharp in the 9th, but he kept the A’s from coming all the way back and the Tigers punched their tickets back to Oakland for Game 5 on Thursday. With Scherzer throwing a pair tonight, Leyland will call on erstwhile ace Justin Verlander (1 GS, 7 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.33 FIP) to put the Tigers through to the ALCS.
The Moment: Scherzer escapes a base loaded, no out jam in the 8th to preserve a one run lead.
How Was The Game? (October 7, 2013)
One in which the hook came too late.
A’s 6, Tigers 3 (Tigers trail 2-1)
Anibal Sanchez (1 GS, 4.1 IP, 10.38 ERA, 10.66 FIP) looked like he might settle in and cruise early, but a Miguel Cabrera error in the 3rd opened the door for a run and then the A’s followed with 2 in the 4th and 3 in the 5th on the backs of three homeruns to chase him before he could complete five innings. He struck out six, but the rest of the box score looks ugly. It looked for a moment that the Tigers were going to open this one up with a three run fourth that tied things up, but Sanchez gave the runs back right away. Jose Alvarez did nice working keeping the A’s off the board for the middle innings to keep the Tigers in the game, but they were unable to rally back despite some extracurricular shenanigans between Balfour and Martinez in the 9th. Doug Fister (0 GS this postseason) is expected to take the ball tomorrow night in an attempt to stave off elimination.
The Moment: The Tigers get four hits across five batters in the 4th to tie it up.
Reflections on Game 2
It’s always about process for me. Good process is more important to me than good results. A good at bat is a good at bat no matter how it ends. If you make the right choices and things don’t work out, I don’t lose any sleep. Which makes last night a bit of mixed bag. There was so much to love about what happened Saturday night in Oakland, but also a good deal not to like.
Justin Verlander was on top of his game. After a summer of “struggles” he looked like the ace that signed the biggest contract ever given to a starting pitcher. He used a generous strikezone to his advantage and leveraged his stuff into 7 shutout innings and 11 strikeouts. He escaped two jams in the 5th and 7th with big strikeouts and gave his team a chance to win.
Sonny Gray was only marginally less impressive. He kept the Tigers caged with a dialed up fastball and his signature hook and left his team needing just a single run. This was a pitcher’s duel to end all pitcher’s duels. Verlander. Gray. 15 innings, 20 strikeouts, 0 runs. It was a masterpiece. A Joy. The game of the year.
But it was also foiled by silly managerial mistakes. Bob Melvin made a perplexing call to bunt with Reddick in the 5th that made no sense given the situation and the hitter at the plate. Jim Leyland sent Iglesias in a 3-2 with Jackson up and runners on the corners. Leyland bunted Kelly to second with Iglesias. Leyland went to Alburquerque instead of Porcello in the 8th (which ended up working out), but then stuck with him in the 9th when he had Porcello, Benoit, and Veras available. Then he stuck with Alburquerque after he put the first runner on. Then he played his team at no doubles depth (aka more singles) and a ball was hit right where Fielder should have been standing.
The intentional walk that came next was right and Leyland went to Porcello – even if it was too late – and you know what happened next.
It was a wonderful duel and a game made for prime time television. The Baseball Gods gave treated us to Verlander and Gray but also left us with managerial second guessing. Sports are beautiful, but cruel. This was playoff baseball at its best and at its worst. We had a close game wire to wire with tons of drama, tension, intrigue, and great match ups – and then it crushed us. Like a ton of bricks. A stomach punch. If I was a fan of one of the 28 other teams, it would have been great.
We signed up for this, I guess. In exchange for our team performing well and earning a playoff berth, we have to pay with our blood pressure and mental health in October. For a chance to win, we have to pay a price. Saturday night’s game would have been easier to digest if Verlander had allowed a solo homer in the 4th. That would have seemed just. It’s a lot harder to lose when the process is bad. Maybe the Tigers lose that game even if Leyland managed it perfectly. That’s entirely possible. But it would have been a lot easier to sleep at night.
If Verlander had thrown a fat pitch or if a lefty had tagged Smyly. If the Tigers hadn’t run into a double play, but still not scored. If the A’s doubled against a normally aligned defense instead of the silly ‘no doubles’ approach. I don’t think I’d have taken it so hard if the process had been cleaner.
I was pretty critical of Leyland on Twitter last night, and I stand by the comments. I had very little push back, save for a few who pointed out the offense didn’t score at all. Which is a fair point. Leyland’s biggest mistakes came with his team in the field, but he hamstrung the bats on two occasions as well. It’s not his fault they didn’t score at all, but he did make things worse. Maybe they lose anyway, but that loss would be a lot easier to handle.
They play well at home and have over the last few seasons so Game 3 and 4 should tilt back in the Tigers direction and the Tigers’ number 3 and 4 starters are superior to what Oakland offers. Coming home with a split is a good outcome, it just doesn’t feel like it when you give one away like the Tigers did on Saturday. Putting that behind them is important.
Something I’ve always liked about baseball is that you get to move on quickly. There’s another game the next day. Unfortunately, in this case, we had to tread through an off day marinating in the despair of what happened in Oakland on Sunday. A lot of people are worried about the offense, but I’m not. Good players are good players. They aren’t conditional on their teammates. Hitting is not contagious. The A’s are a great team. I didn’t expect the Tigers to sweep. If you played this series 100 times, both teams would win quite a bit. It doesn’t really matter how the Tigers lost Game 2 with respect to what is going to happen in Game 3.
It feels that way, but there really isn’t a connection. As fans, we draw lines between the two, but the lines don’t exist. A loss is a loss is a loss. We didn’t burn the pen and no one got hurt. Only the Red Sox and A’s were better at home than the Tigers in the AL this year. The Tigers already won their game in Oakland. They stole back homefield advantage, even if it doesn’t make you feel warm and fuzzy inside.
In the end, momentum and narratives are just window dressing. It’s Anibal Sanchez and Jarrod Parker. And Anibal Sanchez, for my money, was the best pitcher in the American League this year. And then it’s Doug Fister and Dan Straily, which isn’t exactly a fair fight either. The Tigers only have to win one to get back to Scherzer and I like their chances to win both. It’s easy to get lost in the crushing defeat that came last night, but I’d rather be the Tigers than the A’s right now. Even if it doesn’t feel that way, it is that way.
How Was The Game? (October 5, 2013)
The game of the year.
A’s 1, Tigers 0 (Series tied 1-1)
This was not a baseball game you’re going to forget anytime soon. Both Justin Verlander (1 GS, 7 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.33 FIP) and Sonny Gray were fantastic in 7 and 8 innings, respectively, and we were treated to some extraordinary moments. Verlander retired the first 11 he faced and ended the game with 11 strikeouts to go along with just 4 hits, 1 walk, and no runs. He was vintage Verlander as he had all of his pitches working and escaped a big jam in the 5th with a couple of huge strikeouts and then put Vogt away after an epic battle to end the 7th. Gray was only a touch less dominant and both starters handed this one off to their bullpens, much to the dismay of people who love baseball. The A’s threatened in the 8th, but Leyland called on Alburquerque who struck out two to escape. In the 9th, Leyland stuck with him and he put the first two men on (in part thanks to Leyland calling ‘no doubles’) and then walked Reddick intentionally to set up forces for Porcello. With the infield in, Vogt punched it past Iglesias and the A’s evened the series (it’s an easy double play if the infield isn’t in, FWIW). There will be seconding guess about how Leyland handled the last two innings (and starting Iglesias and the Iglesias bunt) and he earned it. A manager usually can’t win a game for his team, but he can lose it, which we saw tonight. The offense needs to score, but Leyland made a series of big mistakes. Regardless of the outcome, it was a thrilling game and Verlander certainly silenced his critics. The Tigers will look to get back on top with Anibal Sanchez (0 GS this postseason) taking the ball in Game 3 at home on Monday.
The Moment: Verlander K’s Vogt in the 7th.
How Was The Game (October 4, 2013)
Comfortable, until it wasn’t.
Tigers 3, A’s 2 (Lead Series 1-0)
Max Scherzer (1 GS, 7 IP, 2.57 ERA, 2.62 FIP) dominated the A’s on Friday night except for a couple of run-ins with Cespedes who took him for a double and a homer. The line was fantastic – 7 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 11 K – and the stuff was as filthy the results. He had tons of movement on the fastball and had the offspeed working nicely. The TIgers staked him to an early 3-0 lead as they jumped Colon in the first. Jackson doubled, Hunter got hit, and Cabrera drove in Jackson with a single. Then Fielder bounced into a run scoring double play and Martinez doubled and Avila scored him. They wouldn’t add any additional runs, but those three would hold up as the pen backed Scherzer with the final six outs with two from Smyly and four from Benoit. The Tigers will turn around and try to take a commanding 2-0 lead tomorrow behind the recently invigorated Justin Verlander (0 GS this postseason) at 9pm.
The Moment: Scherzer freezes Donaldson with a tailing fastball on the outside black in the 4th.
Ten Answers To Questions You’ll Ask During Game 1
I love the MLB playoffs. They’re awesome, but they don’t lend themselves to a lot of marco-analysis. We’re mostly breaking down individual plays and games. That’s great, just different. I would suggest my skills are more catered to analyzing trends and seasons and stuff rather than individual events, but that doesn’t mean I don’t like doing it. Here, I’d like to be a little more casual, mostly because the playoffs are fun and you don’t want to think too much when you have to stay up until 1am.
Below I present 10 answers to questions you will ask tonight.
1. Wait, Bartolo Colon is paid to be a professional athlete?
Yes. But now I’m thinking about looking up video of him covering first base.
2. Why did someone let TBS cover the playoffs?
So, ESPN wouldn’t agree to move Monday Night Football to ESPN2 during the playoffs and Fox didn’t want to lose their entire Fall lineup. There isn’t really anyone else who could outbid TBS, so here we are. Things will get better when FS1 gets some games next year, even if that’s barely a step up. Just grit your teeth and deal with it. We’re all in this together.
3. What’s a good place to get companion coverage?
Twitter is great, but I’ve been enjoying having the FanGraphs live chats up as well.
4. How do you prepare to stay awake late into the night on a Friday?
Sheer will? I don’t know, I’m already exhausted from working and watching baseball this week and the game doesn’t start for 5 hours. The adrenaline will kick in if the game is close, but if the Tigers get a big lead my wife will be asleep, literally, immediately.
5. Is the Tigers bullpen a serious concern in the playoffs?
It’s not good to be without Rondon, but Porcello is going to be a huge advantage down there and Fister could/should throw an inning tonight. I’m not really that worried so long as Leyland uses them semi-correctly. I would prefer the Tigers have a stronger lefty behind Smyly than Alvarez, but for some reason they have soured on Downs.
6. Will the Tigers defensive and baserunning issues cause problems in October?
I don’t really think so. The Tigers, for my money, aren’t bad at these things through mistakes, they’re bad through lack of ability. What I mean is that they don’t boot the ball and have a lot of TOOBLANs, but rather just don’t get to balls and don’t take extra bases. I think miscues are amplified in October, but otherwise I think defensive deficiencies have similar effects in the regular season and playoffs.
7. Which Tiger do you think has the big series?
Omar Infante. Seems right.
8. How do you get the most out of Cabrera with his injury issues?
We’ll have to see how he’s doing after the five day break, but it’s just something you live with. At some point you move him to DH and try Martinez at third, but we aren’t there yet. That said, I want to see Martinez taking grounders at third. Can’t be caught off guard.
9. Are the late season hitting woes a concern?
Not one bit. Meaningless. I’m serious, means nothing.
10. Who is the key to tonight’s game?
Well the stupid answers are Cabrera and Scherzer, but Avila/Martinez/Fielder are really important because Colon has a pretty serious platoon split. Lefties do much better, so you want to see those guys deliver.
Enjoy the game, and feel free to Tweet at us tonight during the game (@NeilWeinberg44). I’ve got access to some cool statistical tools, so I’ll likely be posting some fun numbers during the game.
The Tigers Hitter Bartolo Colon Fears
Full disclosure, batter versus hitter matchup stats aren’t very predictive. First, the samples are almost always too small for the numbers to provide meaningful data about what will happen in the future. They tell us what happened, but not what will happen. Second, the matchups are usually spread out across many seasons so the matchups in 2007 and 2013 are not really even between the same players. Players change, after all.
That said, now that we’re into the playoffs and we need to micro-analyze things, let’s just take a quick look at how each of the Tigers stack up against Colon in their careers.
| PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torii Hunter | 63 | 58 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 10 | .241 | .302 | .448 | .750 |
| Ramon Santiago | 28 | 26 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | .423 | .444 | .615 | 1.060 |
| Victor Martinez | 23 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | .273 | .304 | .500 | .804 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 16 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | .500 | .500 | .625 | 1.125 |
| Austin Jackson | 15 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .286 | .333 | .286 | .619 |
| Jhonny Peralta | 11 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .182 | .182 | .182 | .364 |
| Alex Avila | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | .500 | .500 | 1.375 | 1.875 |
| Andy Dirks | 8 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .500 | .500 | .875 | 1.375 |
| Prince Fielder | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .571 | .571 | 1.143 | 1.714 |
| Omar Infante | 7 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .286 | .286 | .286 | .571 |
| Don Kelly | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Jose Iglesias | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Brayan Pena | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | .500 | 1.000 | 1.500 |
| Total | 197 | 187 | 60 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 6 | 27 | .321 | .347 | .524 | .871 |
Hunter has faced Colon the most without a ton of success. A .750 OPS isn’t terrible, but it’s mostly about extra base hits rather than getting on base very often. Avila, Dirks, and Fielder have done well in small samples and Martinez and Cabrera have been their usual impressive selves. The name that jumps out is second on the list in PA – Ramon Santiago.
Now it’s unlikely that Santiago will see the field in Game 1, but it might be worth putting him out on deck to scare Colon every now and then. Santiago has his number in a big way. He has a career OPS of .641, but in 28 PA against Colon it’s all the way up a 1.060. That’s impressive.
Again, this isn’t predictive, it’s simply interesting. Let’s look at some of their history.
| Year | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .333 | .333 | 1.000 | 1.333 | |
| 2003 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .625 | .625 | .750 | 1.375 | |
| 2004 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | |
| 2009 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .333 | .000 | .333 | |
| 2011 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .833 | .833 | 1.167 | 2.000 | |
| 2012 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | |
| 2013 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | |
| RegSeason | 28 | 26 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | .423 | .444 | .615 | 1.060 |
So the success hasn’t really been recent. Over his last six at bats, not much has happened. Which supports the idea that matchup stats aren’t predictive but points out that before that 0-6 he was even better! Just for fun here’s what appears to be the best hit ball by Santiago since 2009 against Colon. On an 0-2 fastball:
And where it landed:
Small samples and recent history be damned! Let’s see Santiago tomorrow!
How Leyland Should Manage His Pitching Staff
So the playoff rosters are likely coming sometime on Thursday and at that point we’re all going to spend way too much time analyzing whether or not Matt Tuiasosopo made the cut. But for now, let’s talk about something a bit more consequential – how Leyland should deploy his pitching staff.
Let’s draw the boundaries of the discussion by recognizing that he’s already set hit starting rotation for the entire series.
Game 1: Scherzer
Game 2: Verladner
Game 3: Sanchez
Game 4: Fister
Game 5: Scherzer
I’m not going to quibble with this order too much because it doesn’t make a big difference. I’d have led with Sanchez and then pitched Scherzer and then Verlander, but re-litigating that choice isn’t very exciting. Instead, let’s consider how to use what he has in the framework he’s established. For the purposes of this post I’m going to assume Porcello, Smyly, Benoit, Veras, Alburquerque, (lefty), and (long man righty). The last two don’t really matter, because you’re only going to use them in blowouts when everyone else is tired.
So I want to address two key premises that Leyland should employ during the first round, which begins on Friday.
USE YOUR STARTERS
This can be easily broken down into two categories. First, Rick Porcello is your best reliever, use him like it. Last year, Leyland didn’t use Smyly and Porcello as late inning relievers because he thought of them as his long-men/insurance policy. They were starers, so they didn’t pitch in tight games. They only got called on in the 4th inning or in blowouts. This is fundamentally flawed. Your starters, especially someone like Porcello who has a bit of an endurance issue as a starter, are going to become dynamite relievers. Their starting days are over until April, deploy them as high leverage relievers. Leyland needs to use Porcello like he’s a fireman. When the game is on the line, whether it’s inning four or inning eight, Porcello is the first guy you should call. He’s the best and you need to use your best when it matters most.
Second, Leyland needs to make use of Fister in relief. He threw one inning on Sunday and isn’t due to pitch again until Tuesday. That’s an eight day layoff between outings and the initial outing was only an inning long. Fister is well-rested and ready to go. Two things can happen here. One, if Scherzer doesn’t have it early, Leyland needs to be ready to go to Fister. Don’t wait until it’s too late, bring in another starter right away. During the season, you can sacrifice a game now for long term stability, but you can’t do that in the playoffs. Don’t be afraid to do something unorthodox. Two, get Fister an inning or two in relief anyway. We’re talking eight days between appearances and close to two weeks between starts. Get him in the game and let him throw 25-35 pitches on Friday. He’ll be plenty fresh for his schedule start and you won’t have to rely on the bullpen as much.
MANAGE DIFFERENTLY
This is vital to postseason bullpen management. Roles should be completely outlawed. This is about the situation in the game at that exact moment. There is no context, there is no future. If that means you bring in Benoit in the third inning, you do it. If it means Smyly for four outs and Porcello for seven based on the matchups, you do it. Need a strikeout, call Al-Al. You don’t have a closer or an “eighth inning guy” anymore. You have pitchers. Think of them as tranquilizer darts. Some are more powerful than others and some are designed for certain types of animals. When you only have a certain number of them and your life depends on not getting eaten alive, you need to choose which ones to fire when and you can’t decide based on the order you packed them in your bag. That’s not how this works. The playoffs are different than the regular season. You don’t have the luxury of rest or getting comfortable.
—-
Ultimately the key is for Leyland to recognize that Porcello will be an elite reliever and that he needs to worry about the situation instead of what might happen later. Mario and Rod routinely talk about how Leyland likes to think three innings ahead. That can work in the regular season, but it’s wrong in the postseason. You have to empty the chamber when the lion is bearing down on you. You can’t save a dart because a cheetah might come later.
I have some hope that he knows what Porcello can be after watching Bochy use Lincecum last season, but I’m much more skeptical about the second part. A lot of managers are unwilling to rock the boat this much and Leyland is very much a member of the rank and file. He’s not Dusty Baker stubborn, but he’s not very revolutionary. His virtues are clear – players love playing for him. But he has some clear tactical problems that will be more costly in the playoffs. Hopefully, he’ll make the right calls because if he unleashes this team in the best possible way, there is very little that can slow them down.
How Was The Month? Detroit Tigers September Report
Just a tune up.
13-13 (93-69 overall)
The Tigers entered September with very little left to prove. They were the best pitching staff and offense entering the month and had the division locked up for all intents and purposes. September was about closing the deal and getting lined up for the playoffs.
The Tigers didn’t hit terribly well in the month (92 wRC+), but some of that is biased due to the fact that they totally phoned in the last few days of the season. It wasn’t a great month, but it also wasn’t terrible considering how well they had hit for the first five months. Avila, Fielder, and Martinez killed the ball during September while Infante and Cabrera were above average.
To no one’s surprise, though, they were the best pitching staff in the league during the month of September turning in 6.0 WAR and a 10.27 K/9, nearly a full win ahead of the second place Indians! The entire rotation was great – led by Verlander’s 1.7 WAR as he looked more and more like himself as the month went on. Sanchez and Scherzer both put up more than 1.0 WAR and Fister and Porcello turned in 0.7 and 0.6 respectively. Only one of them, Porcello, had an ERA during the month higher than 3.00 and that was all the way up at 3.72.
The Tigers bats slowed down during the month, but their pitching staff did its thing as the team coasted to the division title and the postseason. They’ll be back in action on Friday against the A’s and New English D will have a lot more season wrap up coverage whenever the season actually ends.
The Moment: The Tigers score 6th in the 9th inning to tie it against the White Sox – and eventually win in extras.
How Was The Game? (September 29, 2013)
One of the more exciting meaningless losses you’ll ever see..
Marlins 1, Tigers 0
Justin Verlander (34 GS, 218.1 IP, 3.46 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 5.3 WAR) took the ball on the final day of the regular season for the Tigers and did his thing against the Marlins for 6 innings of shutout baseball in which he dropped 10 strikeouts along with just 3 hits and a walk. He failed to get his first MLB hit, but he came awfully close with a foul ball down the right field line against Henderson Alvarez who no hit the TIgers through 9 despite his team failing to score. Naturally, his team came through on a walk off wild pitch in the bottom of the inning to produce one of the more incredible finishes you’ll ever see in a game with nothing on the line. The outcome of this one meant nothing and was just about tuning up and keeping everyone healthy, but it was a nice chance for Verlander to make a final push to get the ball in game one on Friday. It will be interesting to see who Leyland selects, but there’s a sense that it will be Verlander and his impressive track record. Scherzer had the flashy year, and New English D has endorsed Sanchez, but after two straight double digit K games to close out the year, it won’t be a shock to see #35 on Friday. Stay with New English D for complete postseason coverage.
The Moment: Justin Verlander nearly doubles down the right field line for his first MLB hit, but the ball hooks just foul. Who are we kidding? Alvarez walk off wild pitch no hitter.
New English D 