On Sunday night, the Royals went for it and Tampa Bay just let them do it. The Royals traded top prospect OF Wil Myers, RHP Jake Odorizzi, LHP Mike Montgomery, and 3B Patrick Leonard to the Rays for James Shields and Wade Davis.

This trade is rich with analytical possibilities, so bear with me here. From an actual value standpoint, it’s hard not to think the Rays robbed the Royals like they hadn’t eaten in weeks. Two years of James Shields at $9 million plus matched with  a couple cheap years of Wade Davis followed by some more expensive years of Wade Davis for six years of all of those prospects who will earn the league minimum for the first three years.

Myers is perhaps the best hitting prospect in baseball. Odorizzi is a top arm. Montgomery is risky, but has a high ceiling. Leonard has power.

We know Shields is a great pitcher and Davis is at worst a great reliever and at best a solid starter.

The Rays got more total value, but if the Royals are truly trying to win in 2013, they are taking a risk that they believe will pay off. The Royals will be better in 2013 because of this deal, but they will be worse in the future because of it. That’s a generous way to put it.

But should the Royals have made this choice? They added a very good starting pitcher and a potentially solid starter, but as a result, they will keep the much worse Jeff Francouer in RF instead of Wil Myers. How many wins will that net them? I’ll be generous and call that 4 to 5 wins. That’s certainly not enough to win the division in 2013. And we’ve already decided that after the two years of Shields are over, this deal slants heavily in favor of the Rays.

So why did the Royals do it? Simple, I think. The Royals owners told GM Dayton Moore to win in 2013 or he’d be fired. Therefore, Dayton Moore traded away the future to improve his 2013 chances. All he cares about is 2013. This is a net gain in 2013 and a net loss everywhere else. Moore doesn’t care about that because he has to save his job. That’s the only explanation.

From the Rays side, this is another awesome Rays move. They traded Shields and Davis, but they have a ton of pitching depth and they got two more back. Myers slots into RF this year and the team is better off and cheaper because they can replace Shields in-house in a way that no other team could.

The Rays got four good to great players who cost nothing in exchange for two more expensive pitchers and one is a free agent after 2014.

Bu this deal is also a proven player versus prospect story. Lots of old school people are talking about Shields as a lot more valuable than Myers because he’s a proven guy. But the reality here is much different. Myers may turn out to be a bust, but he’s one of the safest bets as far as prospects go. He’s a young, good position player who hit well in the minors. His bust chances are low relative to other prospects.

Shields has shown he can play in majors for years, but if he blows out his elbow in April, this trade is a disaster. The Royals didn’t take on much less risk. Veterans are risky too. Everything is risky.

This is a bad deal for the Royals. They gave up some of their best prospects including one of the best in the game for a shot at winning in 2013 and 2014, but they didn’t get much better and aren’t close enough to contending for that to even matter. This was a desperate trade by a GM who is on the hot seat.

This is a great deal for the Rays because they can replace Shields and Davis, they saved money, and they get a great young outfielder.

This is all coming from a place in which I love James Shields. I think Shields is one of the most underrated players in the game. Innings eating pitchers with great changeups are my favorite. The Royals got a good one, they just paid way too much after they tricked themselves into thinking that they could contend this season.

Grade (Royals): D, Grade (Rays): A