Tigers Decide Andy Oliver’s Time Has Come…To Go
It wasn’t that long ago that Andy Oliver was a top prospect in the Tigers farm system. But things change, and now Andy Oliver is a Pittsburgh Pirate and Ramon Cabrera is a Detroit Tiger.
The trade happened earlier today as the Tigers decided a change of scenery would be good for Oliver and got back a catcher who will start the season in Toledo. I don’t know much about Cabrera but the scouting report I received on him from Mark Anderson says that he has “an average glove overall” and “some modest hitting ability.”
It appears that Cabrera will be a useful depth guy for the Tigers behind the plate and can fill in on the big league roster if Avila or Holaday get hurt. The real story here is Oliver.
Just a couple years ago, he looked like someone who had a shot to really contribute to a big league rotation. But that hope faded. Slowly he started to look like a reliever. Then maybe nothing at all.
Oliver’s problem was that he lost command and then he lost his slider. A lefty who can throw mid 90s with a solider breaking ball is a big league starter. A lefty who can’t find the zone and only has a fastball is probably a LOOGY. That’s where Oliver is right now.
This is a story of the Tigers not cashing in on Oliver when his value was higher. I thought they should have traded him two offseasons ago. It’s easy to look back now and say that I’m right given that we know he hasn’t lived up to the potential. The Tigers wanted him to live up to it so they held on.
Today they let go.
Andy Oliver is the story of a prospect not panning out. It happens all the time. A great GM can see it coming and flip them for value before their stock tanks. That’s a very tough thing to perfect. Dombrowski did it perfectly with Andrew Miller. He didn’t do it with Andy Oliver. y with Andrew Miller. He didn’It happens all the time. A great GM can see it coming and flip them for Such is life.
Oliver has the raw ability to pitch, but doesn’t have the fine-tuned skill. I watch him a lot in Toledo and in his few stints in Detroit. The velocity from the left side is valuable, so he won’t have trouble finding someone to give him a chance, but I’m not convinced it’s ever going to happen for him.
That’s okay though. He’s still getting paid to play baseball for a living, even if he’s never going to be on top.
Lots of Baseball Happens: Signings, Extensions, and Trades
In the most cliché move yet this offseason, the hot stove is heating up as baseball’s GMs decided to start making moves in the week before the Winter Meetings in Nashville. Because my day job doesn’t allow me to spend the 12 hours a day I would like to writing about baseball, I’m going to have to get you caught up at lightning speed.
Here are the big moves from this week and my brief take on each:
Angels sign RP Ryan Madson, 1 year, $6 million plus incentives
Excellent move by the Angels who followed up by dumping Jordon Walden on the Braves for Tommy Hanson. Madson was a solid reliever for the Phillies for several years before signing a 1 year deal with the Reds last season. He got injured before the season and never threw a pitch, so it’s hard to judge exactly how healthy he may be. The Angels took that risk and added Madson to their bullpen on a one year deal during and offseason that has seen two meh relievers (League and Broxton) get three year contracts. Grade: A
Braves sign OF BJ Upton , 5 years, $75 million
The Braves needed to resign or replace Michael Bourn and this will do the trick. I have my doubts about Upton going forward and think he’s a guy who peaked early and will never live up to his skills. That said, he’s been a useful big leaguer with flashes of star power in the past and the Braves are only signing him through his age 32 season. I don’t love this deal, but it’s not a huge risk given how big contracts are getting. I think Upton has a couple more $15 million seasons in him, I’m just not sure how many and when they’ll come. I’m glad my team isn’t taking this risk, but I’m guessing the Braves won’t regret this and if they do, it won’t be a huge regret. Grade: B-
Nationals acquire Denard Span from the Twins for P Alex Meyer
The Tigers fan in me is thrilled Span is leaving the AL Central. The analyst in me thinks the Nationals made a shrewd move here. A cost controlled Span for three more seasons will do wonders between Harper and Werth and can provide a nice boost at the top of the order in a much cheaper way than the free agent options. Meyer is an interesting prospect, but most of the people I’ve talked to or read seem to think he’s a risky-high upside type. Span fills a hole in the Nats outfield and they traded from pitching depth, and they have a lot of that. The Twins have Ben Revere to fill the Span void and they do need a lot of pitching. I like this deal for them except that I think they probably could have gotten more in a deal for Span. Grade (Nats): A, Grade (Twins): C+
Pirates sign Russell Martin, 2 years, $17 million
The Pirates got something they needed. Offense. Martin hits for power and walks at a decent rate while provide some value on defense through solid pitching framing and debatable throwing skills. He’s a good fit for the Pirates and it’s hard to call $8.5 million for a free agent who can easily get to 2.0 WAR an overpay. Can’t complain if I’m a Bucs fan, but I really just want to point out that the Pirates outbid the Yankees for a player. The Pirates…outbid…the Yankees. With money. Grade: B
Mets extend David Wright, 7 years, $122 million
This extension starts after 2013 and carries Wright into his age 37 season. I was preparing a “What Should the Mets Pay Wright” piece when the news broke of this extension and I have to say, the Mets are getting a really solid yearly price for the cost of guaranteeing a lot of years. This is similar to the Longoria deal in a lot of ways except Longoria signed his four years ahead of free agency and Wright signed his one year ahead. Wright proved, through signing this deal, that he is committed to winning in New York and he’ll likely be a Met for life. Assuming he stays healthy, it’s hard for me to see a way in which this deal becomes a mess. It might not payoff, but it should mostly pay off. Grade: B+
The Winter Meetings are coming next week and a lot more action should be coming. Check back with STT for complete coverage.
122 days until Opening Day.
2012 Season in Review: NL Central
Over the last couple weeks, you’ve seen the STT Seasons in Review for each of the six NL Central teams that gave brief overviews of each team’s biggest contributors and how their seasons went. I gave each club a letter grade for 2012 and a rough projection of how I see them stacking up in 2013.
Today, I want to review the division as a whole and paint a broad picture about what it looks like going forward (See you never, Astros!).
This is how things went in 2012:
And here’s how the Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds looked from April to October.
The Reds took over by July and the Cardinals pretty much stayed in Wild Card position for most of the season. Each of the Brewers and Pirates made a run at it at different points, but neither could really close the deal. Needless to say, the Cubs and Astros did not really factor into the race.
The NL Central is one of the lesser divisions in the game, but the offense from the Reds, Cards, and Brewers was pretty good. Match that with a Pirates club on the rise and some good pitching from a couple of these teams, and what we really have is a division dragged down by the bottom feeders.
The Reds and Cardinals are good teams. The Brewers are talented but have damaging holes. The Pirates are becoming competitive, but still haven’t become a threat. The Cubs and Astros are a mess. One of these teams is leaving next year, so the division as a whole might get a little better by subtraction.
My bet is that the division will look pretty similar in 2013 when it’s all said and done. Here is my early projection, which is subject to change throughout the offseason:
The key variable here is that these teams have to pick up some wins that normally came at the expense of the Astros in order to keep these win totals up. I guess I’ll have to look at this more closely as I fill in the sheet with the rest of the divisions.
The NL Central MVP goes to Ryan Braun over Yadier Molina and the Cy Young belongs to Johnny Cueto.
Here’s a final summary of the NL Central 2012 Grades and Win totals:
All and all, another fine year in the pitcher-bats-9th Midwestern United States led by the Reds and Cardinals.
2012 Season in Review: Pittsburgh Pirates
79-83, 4th in the NL Central
They almost ended the torture that is baseball’s longest losing season streak. Almost. After pulling even with .500 on May 30th, they held at or above .500 until September 20th.
For some of the season, they were sitting in a playoff position. The Pirates were a relevant baseball team in 2012 even if they faded down the stretch and ended up posting another losing season.
The story of the Pirates’ strength was pitching and Andrew McCutchen, but only one of those held up down the stretch. McCutchen’s 7.4 WAR and 158 wRC+ were the best numbers from a Pirates positions player since Barry Bonds in the early 1990s.
Problem was, he didn’t get much help. Neil Walker (3.3) and Pedro Alvarez (2.9) were the only position players to post starter level WARs this season, and the club as a whole was 10% below average offensively and didn’t make up for it on defense.
After a strong start, the pitching faded too. A.J. Burnett had a fine year (3.4 WAR, 3.51 ERA), but James MacDonald was the only other starter to combine innings with any kind of effectiveness. Burnett was the only Pirates arm to top 1.7 WAR. That’s not a good formula.
But the Pirates shouldn’t fear because they have a lot to look forward too. They have one of the best stadiums in the game in a great part of the city and they also have some exciting young arms coming up through the system. With McCutchen locked up and some interesting complimentary pieces in-house, the Pirates might not be that far away from being true contenders.
I wouldn’t start buying 2013 playoff tickets just yet, but I would plan to have a “We’re Over .500” party next September.
2012 Grade: C
Early 2013 Projection: 84-78
New English D 