How Was The Game? (April 5, 2013)
A sight for sore eyes.
Tigers 8, Yankees 3
The Tigers unveiled the the 2012 AL Pennant before the game and they played like a team looking for another one this afternoon. Doug Fister wasn’t at his best, but he held the Yankees to 3 runs in 5 innings which would be good enough. It was good enough because Prince Fielder smashed a 3 run bomb in the bottom of the 5th to put the Tigers back on top 6-3. He and Avila would add solo shots later in the game as well. But the story of the day was Drew Smyly. Smyly came on in relief the 6th inning and told everyone in the bullpen to pack up their gear. The Tigers erstwhile starter cruised through the Yankees and retired all 12 in order to end the game. As always, it was a party at Comerica Park on Opening Day as they packed more than 45,000 fans into the park. Those fans were treated to a fun one that ended with the Tigers evening their record to 2-2 on the season.
They’ll be back at it tomorrow at 4pm with Max Scherzer toeing the rubber. If you recall, New English D has their eye on the Silver Hammer early this year because we want to see if he can repeat his delivery and take the leap into the College of Aces. Baseball returned to the Motor City today. All is right with the world.
The Moment: Prince Fielder hits a 3-run HR in the bottom of the 5th to put the Tigers ahead for good.
Porcello, Smyly, and Never Having Too Much of a Good Thing
An issue of some contention this offseason has been what to do about the Tigers surplus of starting pitchers. You see, the Tigers have six of them and only five slots in the rotation. Many fans and commentators have characterized this as a problem, but it really shouldn’t be thought of in this way. Seriously, when is having too many good players a problem?
Following said belief about having too many starters, these same people have often advocated for trading Rick Porcello. The reasons for dealing Porcello are straightforward. First, his contract is heavier than Drew Smyly’s, so the team could reallocate more cash if they deal Porcello instead of Smyly. Second, fans perceive Porcello as an inferior pitcher to Smyly or at least less valuable because he doesn’t throw with his left hand.
I, however, am here to discuss this situation in a different way. The Tigers should keep both Rick Porcello and Drew Smyly.
Let’s first lay out the possible options:
A) Keep both
1) Porcello starts, Smyly relieves
2) Smyly starts, Porcello relieves
3) Porcello starts, Smyly starts in AAA
B) Trade one
4) Trade Porcello
5) Trade Smyly
When we look at it with all of the options in front of us, it’s much easier to see which make the most sense. I would argue that Option 3 is the ideal one for three primary reasons.
Reason 1: The Tigers gain little by trading either player. There is no one on the trading block right now who they could get for either pitcher that would improve the 2013 club. The Tigers could add a prospect or add depth at another position, but they can’t get better in the short run given the options. The team wants to win now. Why should they trade their pitching depth, which is lacking after Smyly and Porcello, when they will likely need it at some point in 2013?
Reason 2: Smyly should start so that he can continue to develop. If the team moves him to the pen, they are likely stunting his growth for the long term.
Reason 3: I think Porcello is better than Smyly for 2013. Porcello has four 2-3 WAR seasons already and has never missed a start due to injury. His strikeout numbers have trended up each season with his walk numbers coming down. His FIP has dropped every season of his career. He’s also still just 24 years old – at least 2-3 years before the average pitcher peaks. Porcello could easily be a 3+WAR pitcher in 2013 and has shown no reason to think he will break down and every reason to think 2013 will be his best season so far.
Smyly, on the other hand, is not nearly so well defined. He’s only a year younger and has less than twenty major league starts and less than fifty professional starts. His rate stats are quite good and he easily looks to be a promising young player, but he hasn’t pitched enough to know these things. Smyly has an injury history and less experience. I’m not sure which pitcher will be better in for their career, but Porcello has a big head start and is a much more certain quantity. There are always things that you don’t see coming, but I’d rather be predicting off four years of data than less than one.
If we merge those reasons together, we’re left with Option 3. This gives the Tigers depth should one of their pitchers get injured and it allows Smyly to develop for the day that he is called upon to be full time starter. The Tigers lose nothing in keeping both pitchers for the start of the 2013 season except the opportunity cost of the trade they could make right now – but none of those trades look that great.
The Tigers should keep Porcello and Smyly for 2013 and start with Porcello in the rotation and Smyly leading the Mud Hens staff. They can always adjust from their throughout the season, but you can’t untrade Rick Porcello if Max Scherzer blows out his elbow in May.
Tigers Have Fun, Punch Their Ticket to the Fall Classic
I’m thinking about two images tonight. One happened two months ago. One a few hours ago.
On August 3, Don Kelly stood in front of his locker trying to cheer up the melancholy reporters who had to ask him how he felt after getting designated for assignment to make room on the roster for the returning Andy Dirks.
You read that right, he was cheering them up. Everyone was sad to see Kelly go. He’s one of the nicest guys in baseball. But Kelly, while disappointed to be leaving Detroit for the minors, said, “Guys, this isn’t a funeral.”
You’re damn right it wasn’t. Not for Kelly, not for the Tigers. Two months later Kelly was driving in the winning run of a topsy turvy ALDS Game 2 and literally lifting Prince Fielder off the ground.
Don Kelly was having fun.
Earlier today, Miguel Cabrera launched a two run homerun into the left field seats at Comerica Park in the fourth inning to all but punch the Tigers’ ticket to the Fall Classic. TBS showed a replay from the perspective of the LF seats. That angle had a view of the Tigers’ bullpen.
Drew Smyly, the Tigers’ fifth starter until late July and reliever since, was jumping up and down with the most genuine smile on his face. The 23 year old lefty was so excited. He’s been dreaming his whole life about pitching in the World Series. He’s going to.
Drew Smyly was having fun.
There are a lot of little moments like that. Prince Fielder and Quintin Berry have both had a lot of fun in their first seasons with the club. Walkoff wins, near no-hitters.
This team, even when a lot of fans were worrying, was having a blast. I remember Avila’s walkoff during that first weekend set at Comerica. The unbridled joy.
So 6 years after I first tasted playoff baseball, the Tigers are going to the World Series. They came close last year, but fell short. I think a lot of players grew up from that near miss. It showed this year.
They played hard, but damn it, they had fun. Baseball is fun. And it’s about to get even better.
Four more wins.
New English D 