How Was The Game? (May 22, 2014)
Worth it.
Rangers 9, Tigers 2
Do I have to? Fine. This was a rough one. Robbie Ray (3 GS, 15.1 IP, 4.11 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 0.2 fWAR) looked fine in the first and it got ugly in a hurry from the second inning on. He pitched into the 4th, allowing 7 runs, and didn’t fool anybody. Ray has a solid future, but he ran into his first real challenge (a team that hits lefties well) and they knocked him around. The Tigers bats had some early chances but BABIP’d their way out of them until the 6th inning when they started to chip away. It was Darvish, so you can’t be too upset about that, but you’d have preferred a competitive contest. The real note in this one was that Coke pitched despite his heavy workload in an effort to save the pen and Smyly came in to throw between starts and did the same. The big one? Danny Worth came in for the 9th inning and struck out two batters throwing knuckleballs. He got five whiffs and touched 89 on the heater. It was awesome. Anibal Sanchez (6 GS, 28 IP, 2.89 ERA, 2.64 FIP, 0.8 fWAR) goes on Friday.
The Moment: Danny Worth pitches!
via Grant Brisbee at SBN.
Why I’ll Cheer For Prince
I know this is a raw topic and people have a lot of strong opinions on the matter. This isn’t a lecture and if it sounds like one it’s a failure of the pen and not of the heart. But a lot of people are fired up to boo Prince Fielder. I’m not one of them. This is probably all academic because Prince might miss the series with an injury and because I don’t actually “live close to Michigan,” but I wanted to tell you why I don’t harbor any resentment toward Prince.
Prince didn’t have a good season by his standards in 2013. Some of it was bad fortune early, some of it was distraction late. He was bad in the postseason. He made a really costly baserunning mistake. And a defensive one. He didn’t perform at a level you would expect of someone who makes what he makes. Compared to the player he was in 2012 and the player we think he should have been, he sucked, I won’t argue otherwise.
But I won’t boo him for that. He didn’t want to play poorly, I’m sure. You can argue that he checked out (we’ll get to that), but he wasn’t playing poorly on purpose. It’s not like he intentionally threw the season. It’s the same reason I never booed Inge, Raburn, etc. It’s why I wouldn’t boo Romine or Coke, even though they’re both in way, way over their heads. Baseball is hard.
I’ll never boo anyone based on performance, period. I think it’s wrong. It sends the wrong message, and I don’t care if you’re doing it to show management you want them on the bench. It says your love (or fanhood, whatever) is condition and I don’t think it should be. And I’ve never heard of a player getting better because their fans booed them. As if they don’t know they were failing.
Do I think Prince gave his best effort last year? I’m not sure. I won’t argue if you think he was checked out or a little distracted. That’s fine. But he was distracted for a very good reason. His marriage was ending. His family was being torn apart. His family is more important than baseball. His family might not be more important than baseball to you, but it’s more important to him. And it should be. Some people are good at putting that kind of thing out of their mind. Some people are good at channeling that trauma. Some people crumble. And that’s okay. I don’t think it’s fair to expect a person to perform at their best when they’re going through something like that. Some people can do it, but not everyone can. If my wife left me (love ya. honey!), I would be a pathetic shell of a person. You’d have to convince me to eat, much less produce anything worthwhile at my job.
I don’t think he played poorly because he wasn’t trying, I think he played poorly because he was depressed. I’m not qualified to diagnose a person I’ve never met, or really a person I’ve met, but I know a decent amount about mental health and Prince seemed to exhibit behaviors of someone going through depression. And depression would be a normal response to the end of a marriage. People who have gone through depression can tell you, the entire world is full of stuff you used to love but no longer do anymore. Things that used to provide enjoyment all of a sudden seem pointless and difficult. That’s how I perceived what was going on with Prince.
And that’s how I perceived his “it’s over bro” comments. To fans who just had their season end, it sounded like someone who didn’t care about them. To me, it actually sounded like a guy who wasn’t enjoying his life at all. He didn’t care because he had just had the worst month of his professional life at the end of the worst year (I’m assuming) of his personal life. He wanted to go home and see his kids. And that’s okay with me.
Pro athletes are asked to be superhuman physically. Most people want them to be superhuman in every other way, but they just aren’t. Prince never had the verbal grace of Curtis Granderson and he had just screwed up royally on the biggest stage. Forgive him for giving a few bad quotes.
Don’t get me wrong, I understand why people are unhappy with him. And I think it was a good baseball trade and probably a good trade for everyone involved. Kurt Mensching likened it to a breakup that both parties needed. That’s a good way to put it. I think it was probably good that Prince got traded, but I harbor zero ill will toward him.
Baseball is his job, not his life. My job isn’t my life, I don’t expect anything more of anyone else. Prince doesn’t seem like a bad guy. He didn’t do anything to me. He didn’t hurt anybody. He had a bad year. To borrow his words, it’s over bro. Miguel Cabrera got drunk and got into an altercation with his wife during a pivotal series in 2009. Probably cost the Tigers a trip to the playoffs. He’s beloved. He got into a car in 2011 with a blood alcohol level of .24. He put lives in danger. He’s beloved. I don’t mean to trivialize the work Cabrera has done to right his wrongs, but he’s an honest to God criminal. The Tigers and Tigers fans embraced Cabrera as a family member in trouble. That’s how I feel about Prince.
He was hurting, at least that’s how I saw it. I could be wrong. I see the other side. But Prince was fun to watch and I enjoyed cheering for him as a Tiger. It didn’t work out, but I wish him the best. I’ll always cheer for Prince. He’s one of us, as far as I’m concerned. To me, it looks like he needs someone to have his back rather than tell him to take a hike. If I was in Detroit this weekend and he was too, I’d be on my feet showing my affection.
How Was The Game? (May 21, 2014)
Wild.
Indians 11, Tigers 10 (13 innings)
Being a writer, calling something indescribable is pretty bad practice. That is literally what I’m supposed to be doing here, describing things. So I’ll try, but just know that I wanted to just call this one a mess and move on. The Tigers jumped out to a four run lead before Max Scherzer (10 GS, 66 IP, 2.59 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 1.7 fWAR) even took the mound, and it took him all of two innings to give it back plus two. Then Victor Martinez and Lonnie Chisenhall traded home runs in the third. Then the Tigers got two in the 5th. Then the home plate umpire ejected Cabrera and Ausmus on a very quick hook. Scherzer was very bad and then pretty good. Of course, the game turned when the Indians botched a double play ball off the bat of Victor in the 8th, leading to two Tigers runs. JUST KIDDING, Joe Nathan allowed a game tying home run in the 9th and sent it to extras. The Tigers almost lost it in the 10th before Rajai Davis gunned down Chisenhall at the plate to extend it. Avila went yard in the top of the 13th, about 5 hours after this one got started, but even that wasn’t good enough as the Indians tied it in the bottom half of the inning and loaded the bases for Ryan Raburn. At which point there was a walk off balk. End of game. End of recap. They’ll head home for a four game set with the Rangers, turning first to Robbie Ray (2 GS, 12 IP, 0.75 ERA, 2.25 FIP, 0.4 fWAR) on Thursday.
The Moment: Rajai guns down Chisenhall trying to score in the 10th…or maybe Avila puts them ahead in the 13th!
How Was The Game? (May 20, 2014)
Better than the night the Pistons had, at least.
Indians 6, Tigers 2
Tuesday’s had two distinct story lines. The first was Justin Verlander’s (10 GS, 66 IP, 3.55 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 1.7 fWAR) rocky first trip through the order. It was bad. He allowed a run in the first on three singles and four runs in the second on four hits and a walk before settling in and getting through six innings. He was able to stop the bleeding, but the hole was already quite deep. The bats made an effort, getting a bomb each from Hunter and Avila, but failed to find an open space when they had men on base the rest of the way (Story line #2!). Double plays and good defense kept them from breaking through and Reed surrendered a home run to grow the deficit a touch more. After a great start to the road trip, the Tigers will need to win Wednesday behind Max Scherzer (9 GS, 59 IP, 1.83 ERA, 2.77 FIP, 1.6 fWAR) to avoid the sweep.
The Moment: Avila crushes one to left center field.
How Was The Game? (May 19, 2014)
Pretty reasonable, considering the woke up in Boston.
Indians 5, Tigers 4
It wasn’t Drew Smyly’s (6 GS, 38.1 IP, 3.05 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 0.6 fWAR) night, but the runaway train had to come to a stop eventually. He labored his way through five innings of three run baseball in which he walked five and struck out six. Kluber gave up a bomb to VMart early, but looked like he was going to cruise to victory until the Tigers got to him for two runs in the 7th courtesy of hits by Castellanos, Avila, and Davis. While it looked like fate was on their side for their seventh straight win, Phil Coke, pitching in a critical situation due to the recent workload of the pen allowed a run in his second inning of work to allow the Indians to get back in control. That wouldn’t last long as JD Martinez swatted a pinch hit home run to tie it in the 9th but Brantley took Al-Al deep to end it in the 10th. The loss drops the Tigers to 27-13 at the 40 game mark, leaving the club looking to even the series Tuesday night with Justin Verlander (9 GS, 60 IP, 3.15 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 1.6 fWAR) on the mound.
The Moment: JD Martinez launches a pinch hit, game tying bomb in the 9th
How Was The Game? (May 18, 2014)
A much cleaner sweep.
Tigers 6, Red Sox 2
Anibal Sanchez (6 GS, 28 IP, 2.89 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 0.8 fWAR) returned to the rotation on Sunday in Boston and allowed two runs in five innings as the Tigers cruised to another series sweep. The Tigers scored three in the 3rd on a Cabrera single and VMart bomb and then tacked on a few more on a Cabrera sac fly, Avila single, and Hunter bomb while they faced only one serious threat. In the 5th, the Sox loaded the bases but only scored one run before Sanchez escaped by fielding his position and firing a bullet to Kelly at third to complete the double play. The win pushes the Tigers to 27-12 on the young season and sets them up to go for the rare, perfect road trip with three in Cleveland this week. Drew Smyly (5 GS, 33.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 0.5 fWAR) will be first in line to get the ball on Monday night.
The Moment: Sanchez snares a liner and fires to Kelly to escape the 5th.
It’s Time To Extend Victor Martinez
It’s amazing that just a year ago, people were ready to abandon Victor Martinez. On May 19, 2013 he was hitting .209/.269/.297. The Tigers were playing Miguel Cabrera out of position to accommodate Prince Fielder at first. They needed the DH slot to come open soon and Martinez did not seem to be himself after missing all of 2012 with an ACL tear.
A year later, Fielder is gone, Cabrera is back at first and Victor Martinez is the best hitter in the Tigers lineup. Go back to May 19, 2013 and bring it up through Sunday morning and Martinez is hitting .331/.382/.499. That’s a 138 wRC+ in 657 PA. And it’s only gotten better from there. Start from June 22, 2013 and it’s .352/.404/.534 with a 154 wRC+ in 532 PA. This season, in 159 PA, he’s hitting .336/.384/.587, good for a 158 wRC+. He’s having the best season of his career immediately after a torrid second half of 2013.
And unlike most early season leaders, Martinez isn’t doing it with a high BABIP (which could indicate luck). He’s at a cool .305, which is actually 10 points lower than his career average. He’s always been a good, consistent hitter. He’s been somewhere between 20 and 30 percent better than league average using wRC+ in almost every season of his career. Now he’s getting better and it’s time to lock him up.
Two things jump out about Martinez this year. First, he’s not striking out. His strikeout rate is down to 5.7%, which is easily the lowest of his career, while he’s running his highest walk rate as a Tiger. Martinez isn’t really swinging at fewer pitches, he’s simply making more and better contact. When you put the ball in the strikezone, he hits it, but he’s also been continuing a trend in which he’s also getting better at making good contact on pitches outside the zone. Pretty much, you can’t get the ball by him.
Second, Martinez is hitting for more power. He’s hit 9 HR so far this year and is on pace to shatter his career high of 25. He’s also running the best slugging percentage of his career by 82 points. And despite his two stolen bases, it’s not like he’s padding his slugging percentage by going to third on a few doubles.
Martinez is getting better when most hitters should be getting worse. He’s 35. But it’s also true that Martinez is getting better at two skills that age well: discipline and power. He’s not a better runner or fielder than he used to be, but he doesn’t have to be. I’m not really buying Martinez as a true talent 160 wRC+, but the fact that he’s been doing this for an entire calendar year suggests that whatever problem he had in early 2013 is gone. My personal take was that it was really bad luck, and the well hit ball data supports that. But even if it was an issue with his knee recovery, those problems can be put to rest.
He’s be 36 next year, so you probably want to avoid a 10 year deal, but a contract extension is in order. They should worry about keeping Porcello first and foremost, but the two aren’t mutually exclusive. The Tigers are currently paying Martinez $12 million a season, so a little bump up to $15 million probably works on a yearly basis. That kind of money will buy you a 2-3 win player on the free agent market, which is probably a fair projection for Martinez. Hitting like this, he’s a 4 win player at DH. Hitting like 2011 Martinez makes him a 2-3 win guy. On a short term deal, that’s a fine bet.
Two years at $15 million a piece would be great if Victor is willing to go for it. Carlos Beltran’s 3/$45M deal with the Yankees could also be a model (same age at FA, both all bat right now). Maybe two years and an option? Something like that should work for both sides. Martinez is a DH who can play solid first base in a backup role, meaning that his market is somewhat limited to AL teams with that specific need. It’s hard to imagine he gets another 4 year deal, but something in the 2-3 range makes sense. The Tigers won’t be paying Hunter, presumably, in 2015 and it seems like it’s going to be Ray instead of Scherzer, so the money is easily there if they want to give Victor a couple million raise to keep him in a Tigers uniform.
Martinez might not be this good, but he doesn’t have to be for an extension to be the right call. There’s no reason to think he’ll age in an unusual way, and you’re only asking him to DH, so mobility isn’t really a concern. Dave Dombrowski doesn’t usually extend players midseason – I can’t think of any examples of that – but it’s probably time to have the talk with Martinez. He’s having a great year and the Tigers are going to need a bat like his in the middle of the order in 2015 and 2016 if they hope to contend. Given the sparsity of the free agent market during this extension heavy era, locking Victor up is basically a necessity.
Plus, that gets us closer to the day that Little Victor can sign a pro contract and we all want that.
How Was The Game? (May 17, 2014)
Another feather in his cap.
Tigers 6, Red Sox 1
Rick Porcello (8 GS, 52.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 1.2 fWAR), if he were in some sort of rap battle or singing competition, would have dropped the mic when this one ended. He dominated the Red Sox and did it in style, allowing just a single run across eight innings of work in which he punched out four and walked one. He got himself into one jam in the 5th and escaped, and then barreled through the 6-7-8th innings en route to one of the most impressive outings of his career. Ausmus didn’t flinch, even, sending him out for the 8th at 100 pitches to face the top of the order a fourth time. Sure the Tigers did some things that scored runs – Cabrera homered, VMart and Avila beat the shift – but this one belongs to Rick. After it, he’s pretty clearly cemented himself as bona fide #2 starter or better, even if he is on a team of #1s. The Tigers will look to sweep on Sunday night with returning ace Anibal Sanchez (5 GS, 23 IP, 3.13 ERA, 2.43 FIP, 0.7 fWAR) on the mound.
The Moment: Porcello gets Ortiz to complete 8 masterful innings.
Don’t Sleep On Austin Jackson
Entering the year, I made the case that this was going to be a critical season for Austin Jackson. We know he can hack it in an MLB lineup but he’s been floating around between solid regular and star and how he performed in 2014 was going to tell us a lot about who he’s going to be. Jackson’s a good defender in center field, he’s a good baserunner, and he’s bounced around between good enough hitter and excellent hitter. We know what he is on the bases and in the field. His bat is the difference maker. We know this.
Jackson started hot, but cooled off to the point where he’s no longer setting the world on fire – yet there’s something really encouraging about an underlying factor you might not have noticed despite the cool down. First, let’s talk about his performance.
| Date | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ |
| 3/31 to 4/30 | 92 | 0.307 | 0.391 | 0.507 | 0.389 | 147 |
| 5/2 to present | 55 | 0.216 | 0.255 | 0.255 | 0.230 | 37 |
| Full | 147 | 0.270 | 0.340 | 0.413 | 0.329 | 106 |
I don’t want to make too much of a 55 PA sample. Overall, Jackson is having a solid season and we’re measuring his offense at it’s lowest point. He’s walking as much as ever and he’s striking out way less than ever – more than 5 percentage points – before.
What’s also interesting is that Jackson is running the lowest BABIP of his career at .302. Jackson has been notorious for running high BABIPs in his time in the majors with a career mark in the .350s. Even if you are skeptical of that number, he’s definitely a guy who is capable of producing a higher than average BABIP. This year, he’s right about average. This is encouraging because some of those balls are going to start to fall. Not all of them, mind you, because Jackson is hitting more fly balls, but he should start grabbing a few extra hits.
It seems as if Jackson is adjusting his approach now that he’s been moved into the middle of the order. He’s trying to hit for more power and it was working big time for the first month. Of course he’s slumping now, but he won’t slump forever. Why? Jackson is developing a better eye.
Let’s dig a little deeper and consider his plate discipline numbers:
| Season | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% |
| 2010 | 28.6 % | 61.9 % | 46.1 % | 67.9 % | 84.3 % | 79.5 % |
| 2011 | 26.8 % | 60.8 % | 44.0 % | 60.2 % | 84.7 % | 77.4 % |
| 2012 | 25.3 % | 57.1 % | 41.9 % | 63.8 % | 87.2 % | 80.4 % |
| 2013 | 25.4 % | 60.1 % | 43.9 % | 59.4 % | 88.6 % | 80.7 % |
| 2014 | 20.5 % | 60.1 % | 40.9 % | 63.3 % | 93.1 % | 85.8 % |
I’ll call your attention specifically to O-Swing%. Jackson is swinging at far fewer pitches outside of the zone than he used to, and if you slide over to Z-Swing% you see that he’s not laying off pitches inside the zone to the same degree. He’s getting more selective, but he’s getting more selective against only those pitches which are outside the zone.
Extend this even further and you’ll notice he’s making more contact in and out of the zone to the point at which he’s running, by far, the highest Contact% of his career. The drop in strikeout rate is real. This isn’t random fluctuation, it’s a meaningful difference in his game. All else equal, a ball in play is going to be better than a strikeout for a player’s performance assuming that the contact isn’t negatively affecting the overall swing.
The question is if it will lead to a substantially better player. What we don’t know is if the change in LD/FB rates are connected to the new selectivity. If the two are connected, maybe it all comes out in the wash. If they are separate and Jackson is simply improving his eye independent of the various other changes in his swing and approach, it’s extremely good news.
Jackson’s real flaw was that he chased a lot of pitches, but if he’s not doing that anymore he’s going to age quite well. Plate discipline and power are old player skills and as Jackson starts to lose a step in center, he’s going to need his bat to step up. This new found ability to lay off bad pitches will help.
He’s going through two simultaneous adjustments. We have to watch both. Is the shift to more fly balls good or bad? Too soon to tell. Is it the result of new swing tendencies? Too soon to tell. Jackson is showing some real signs of maturity, at least I think he is. It’s possible that Jackson has changed his swing in a way that encourages more contact, but weaker contact. You’d rather have a guy smoke the ball 80% of the time than hit it softly 85% of the time and we haven’t had enough time to sort that out.
As the Tigers move forward, they’re going to have to make a decision about Jackson’s future. He’s a free agent after 2015 and they don’t have an obvious replacement going forward. Even at his worst, he’s an MLB starter. The question is if Jackson might yet be a star. The tools are there and the eye is getting better. It’s not clear if that’s an overall positive, but the evolution is worth watching.
How Was The Game? (May 16, 2014)
A touch of revenge.
Tigers 1, Red Sox 0
The Tigers returned to the scene of the crime (read: ALCS) Friday and put their trust in Max Scherzer (9 GS, 59 IP, 1.83 ERA, 2.79 FIP, 1.7 fWAR) to shepherd them through the first of a three game set. Max was impressive out of the gate, striking out five in the first three innings before a 47 minute rain delay slowed the pace. Max finished with six plus innings and no runs, which the Tigers needed considering that they pushed just a single run across in the 1st inning and tiptoed their way through a bullpen 7th. Nathan got the final three outs and sent the Sox fans home to ruminate about their three World Series in the last ten seasons. The club will try to take the series with New English D-endorsed ace Rick Porcello (7 GS, 44.2 IP, 3.22 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 1.1 fWAR) on the hill Saturday night.
The Moment: Max gets Napoli looking to end the 6th.
New English D 