Mildly Interesting Site News!
Starting next week, I will be joining TigsTown (or Scout Tigers, depending on how long you’ve been a reader) and will be writing a weekly feature over there. New English D isn’t changing and it certainly isn’t going anywhere. This is addition, not subtraction. TigsTown is undergoing a bit of a reinvention and will be adding a bit more big league analysis, which is where I will come in. Paul (@TigsTown) asked if I’d like to contribute and here we are. New English D has always had a good relationship with the other Tigers sites (like TigsTown, BYB, MCB, Walkoff Woodward, etc) and this particular arrangement made sense for both sides. Although, be warned that some of the content is behind a paywall, but the membership offers a good amount of access.
We’re still going to have the same type and level of analysis here, and I’m still writing at Beyond The Box Score and Gammons Daily. I’ll be sure to keep you in the loop with links on Twitter and I will likely post links here as well. You probably won’t even notice a difference! Thanks for reading, as always. Go Tigers.
What’s Next for Robbie Ray?
Assuming nothing changes in the next 72 hours, Robbie Ray’s place in the Tigers rotation is going back to its rightful owner: Anibal Sanchez. With that, the Tigers will have their staff intact once again, while leaving them with a decision about what to do with Ray, who has performed well in two starts against two reasonable soft opponents. What should the Tigers do?
The easiest solution is to toss Ray back to Toledo and let him continue on like the last two weeks never happened. He certainly has things on which to work and more seasoning as a starter in AAA should do some good. If Sanchez hadn’t injured his finger, we wouldn’t be considering anything else with respect to Ray. His command needs work and so do his offspeed pitches. Triple A is a fine choice.
But…
Even though it was Houston (terrible) and Minnesota (very bad against LHP), Ray held his own to the tune of a 0.79 ERA and 2.40 FIP. Interestingly, Ray struck out fewer batters and walked fewer than we expected going into the season, but he was also doing that in Toledo. We don’t know how Ray would do in a full season as a starter right now, but we’ve seen a little taste and the odds that he wouldn’t suck look better. He sat 93-94 with the fastball and used the changeup pretty well. The breaking ball was hit and miss, but he wasn’t bad at all.
Which leaves us with another option. Ray in the bullpen.
I think this is a good idea, but I’m not your typical front office strategist, so if you asked me to wager, I’d say the odds of Ray heading to Toledo are probably 80/20 right now. But on the 20% side, Ray in the bullpen makes some sense. Maybe even a lot of sense.
First of all, in the bullpen you don’t need your third pitch nearly as much because you don’t see batters two and three times in one game. Two pitches can go a lot further. Second, the Tigers are going to want to manage Ray’s innings anyway during this season, so why not manage them by shortening his outings. Instead of working 6-7 inning in Toledo, run him out there for two innings at a time in Detroit. This will allow Ray to work on developing his arsenal against MLB caliber hitters, but won’t force him to run into a lineup a third time, which is when he’ll get smacked. If he can help the club, use the innings in a way that makes the most sense.
I haven’t heard anyone worry about Ray’s stamina. The question is about his stuff and his command. I don’t think he needs to learn to stretch out or pace himself, so you don’t need to keep him in Toledo because that’s the only place he could do work on that. Although, it’s important to note that you can’t just flip a switch and be ready to start again. If they move him to the pen, you won’t be able to spot start him when Smyly needs to miss two starts with an oblique injury in August. That will have to be someone else.
You’re risking a short term fill in if you move him to the bullpen and you are affecting his long term development. There are pros and cons for the latter. Maybe he needs to work as a starter to learn to be a starter, or maybe he needs to face better competition so that he is forced to use his secondary pitches more often. It’s hard to say. We probably can’t answer that without knowing the inner workings of the Tigers strategy or Ray’s own mind.
Beyond all of this is the simple bullpen need in Detroit. The bullpen isn’t very good. Nathan seems to be over his early season issues, but there really isn’t a great reliever in the bunch. Joba and Al-Al have flashed above average, but also revert back to maddening quite often. Krol is okay. Miller is fine. Reed is fine. Coke is, well, you know. It’s not a particularly atrocious bunch, but there is very little oomph. You need some knock out relievers and Ray has that ability. A lefty who can bring 94 out of the pen with some decent offspeed stuff. He could fill the Smyly role from last season, or the role Smyly should have filled before Leyland made him a one inning specialist.
Have a 4-1 lead with the starter tiring in the 7th? Bring in Ray to throw two innings. Or three. Need someone to get five outs? Ray. How about a guy to handle two lefties split by a good righty? Again, Ray. Coke is clearly not the answer and Krol doesn’t seem like he’s going to be a true setup man right away. Why not try Ray in that role?
I think it would be a very smart move for the bullpen, it would just be a question of how it would affect Ray in other ways. Smyly seems to have handled the transition well enough, but it might not work for Robbie. It also might bite them if they need three fill in starts next month and Ray isn’t stretched out.
Used properly, I think Ray could be a difference maker in the 2014 bullpen. There are reasons not to do it, but I want to see them try. If the Tigers are really committed to winning a title, this would be the kind of move they should make. Lots of teams have broken in their top prospects with bullpen duty, the Tigers could do the same. Ray probably isn’t Wainwright or Price (Almost certainly not!), but giving him 60 innings in relief this year might be the right call and I would give it a shot.
How Was The Game? (May 14, 2014)
An unclean sweep.
Tigers 7, Orioles 5
If you’re reading this and didn’t have some idea that I was in Baltimore for the series, now you know. As a result, it’s 11:30pm, some 7.5 hours after this one ended, and you’re just getting your brief, New English D style recap because I spent the last seven hours in a car traveling from the park to my house. Sorry if this isn’t very clever! Justin Verlander (9 GS, 60 IP, 3.15 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 1.6 fWAR) had a mostly good game and one pretty awful inning in which he allowed five runs – three of which came on a Nelson Cruz home run. Luckily for Justin, his offense had already assaulted Kevin Gausman’s fastball to the tune of 5 runs and then 2 on the bullpen for good measure, meaning that Verlander was able to walk away from this one without much of a problem. The bullpen made it close, but they ultimately held on, earning the Tigers a three game sweep as they head to Boston with a 24-12 record on the year. That series will kick off Friday with Max Scherzer (8 GS, 53 IP, 2.04 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 1.5 fWAR) on the mound.
The Moment: Worth sort of squeezes and sort of bunts for a hit.
How Was The Game? (May 13, 2014)
Dramatic.
Tigers 4, Orioles 1
Drew Smyly (5 GS, 33.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 0.5 fWAR) didn’t have his best when this one started, allowing a solo home run to Adam Jones in the first and struggling through the next two, but when all was said and done, he had himself six, one run innings. Unfortunately, his offensive comrades had nothing on their side of the ledger. The Tigers had a chance in the 7th, but gave it away on a Torii Hunter TOOTBLAN and a GIDP by Martinez. Then the 9th inning came, and boy did it ever. Avila led off with a ground ball to beat the shift and then Davis ran and stole second on a very close play which needed a review (which was amazingly tense) to make sure he got to stay on the base. Kelly lined out, Kinsler went down, and it was up to Hunter. He worked a walk to extend the inning for Cabrera and then Cabrera did what Cabrera does, sending the baseball into the Orioles’ bullpen to put the Tigers on top. VMart added a no doubt bomb immediately after and the Tigers road a huge 9th inning to a series win. They’ll play with house money, as Rod likes to say, on Wednesday behind Justin Verlander (8 GS, 54 IP, 2.67 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 1.6 fWAR).
The Moment: Cabrera gives the Tigers the lead with a 9th inning blast.
How Was The Game? (May 12, 2014)
A return.
Tigers 4, Orioles 1
I made no secret of the fact that Monday’s game was my first in person rendezvous with the Tigers since 2012 due to “living nowhere near an MLB park” and it didn’t disappoint. Rick Porcello (7 GS, 44.2 IP, 3.22 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 1.1 fWAR) was quite good, allowing only a single run in six innings of work, and that run only scored because Rajai Davis took a creative route to the baseball. He didn’t mow through the O’s with strikeouts, but he got quick out after quick out, leaving after only 83 pitches (perhaps due to illness, it wasn’t clear?). The bats did what they needed to do, pushing across two in the fourth and then two more in the 8th on an Ian Kinsler bomb. Things got interesting after that homer, as Bud Norris drilled Torii Hunter. Hunter was upset, Norris got run, and the benches and bullpens emptied. Humorously, no one came close to blows, leaving everyone standing around pretty much just posing for the camera. There’s nothing funnier than bullpens clearing for no reason, and that’s what we had tonight. The bullpen would hold it and the Tigers grabbed game one. It’ll be Drew Smyly (4 GS, 27.1 IP, 2.96 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 0.4 fWAR) on the mound Tuesday looking to take the series.
The Moment: Kinsler launches one to left, sealing the game.
How Was The Game? (May 11, 2014)
An outfield only a mother could love.
Twins 4, Tigers 3
Robbie Ray (2 GS, 11 ⅓ IP, 0.79 ERA, 2.38 FIP, 0.4 fWAR) did his part. It looked like the offense did their part. The bullpen sort of did their part, even. The problem child on this Mothers Day was the defense in the outfield corners as Hunter and Davis both made crucial defensive mistakes in the late innings that opened the door to Twins’ runs. Cabrera drove in one with a sac fly, Jackson singled in a run, and Kinsler homered which gave Ray a 3-0 lead with which to work. Ray tossed six scoreless innings, but they were only moderately impressive and gave way to a bullpen that got into trouble in the 7th and 8th and allowed runs due to poor defense. They pushed back a little in the 8th, but could not rally, falling to the Twins in the game and the series. The team will head to Baltimore for three games (and so will I!) with Rick Porcello (6 GS, 38 ⅔ IP, 3.49 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 0.9 fWAR) taking the ball in game one. As a programming note, How Was The Game? will be late over the next three days because I’ll be at the ballpark and not in front of a computer all game!
The Moment: Kinsler homers in the 5th.
How Was The Game? (May 10, 2014)
A love letter to Leyland.
Tigers 9, Twins 3
The Tigers honored Jim Leyland on Saturday, so of course, they played a perfect Jim Leyland game. It opened with a Don Kelly home run robbery and continued with a a power heavy offensive assault that featured home runs from the two biggest bats in the lineup. Max Scherzer (8 GS, 53 IP, 2.04 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 1.5 fWAR) threw a bad pitch to Brian Dozier which ended up in the seats and kept him from going deep into the game, but he was otherwise able to keep the Twins at bay. They pushed across three runs in the second and then Cabrera launched a three run bomb which Martinez would match later on in the game. Al-Al and Joba threw scoreless innings in relief and then it was time for a #PhilCokeInning in which the only runner was erased on a fine 3-6-3 double play. The Tigers will go for the series win on Sunday with Robbie Ray (1 GS, 5.1 IP, 1.69 ERA, 1.77 FIP, 0.2 fWAR) taking the mound for his second career start.
The Moment: Don Kelly robs a home run in the first.
How Was The Game? (May 9, 2014)
A Hughes disappointment.
Twins 2, Tigers 1
Justin Verlander (8 GS, 54 IP, 2.67 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 1.6 fWAR) didn’t have a whole lot of trouble with the Twins on this night, unfortunately, just two runs across seven innings simply didn’t cut it. Verlander gave up a pair in his final inning, but was otherwise pretty comfortable out on the mound on Friday night as he struck out five and walked two. The problem was that the Tigers couldn’t get anything going against Phil Hughes who had them off balance all night. They scattered a few hits and stole a couple of bases, but they didn’t have any serious pressure on the Twins starter through seven innings. In the 9th they pushed across a run on a pair of doubles, but could not find the equalizer. The loss drops them to 20-11 as they prepare for Saturday’s game with Max Scherzer (7 GS, 47 IP, 1.72 ERA, 2.47 FIP, 1.5 fWAR) getting the ball.
The Moment: Castellanos makes an outstanding leaping grab.
One Quick Thing: Smyly’s High Pitch to Altuve
So listen. Smyly didn’t have his best day, but that’s okay. It wasn’t a bad day or anything. In times like these, we should take comfort in the parts of the game that are fun, even if the sum of their parts didn’t go our way. I’m obviously talking about Jose Altuve. Particularly, a pitch Smyly threw to him in the fifth inning.
Altuve is short. We get it, but one of the fun things we can see at Brooks Baseball is where Pitchf/x draws his strike zone. For Altuve, the top of the zone is 2.97 feet off the ground. Which is kind of amazing. That had my attention all week. Then, Smyly threw a really high pitch and it made me wonder if that was the highest pitch anyone has ever thrown to Altuve!
Here’s the pitch:
It’s 5.1 feet off the ground, according to Pitchf/x. Graphically:
Based on data available at Baseball Savanat, we can find 15 pitches in Altuve’s career that were higher. Several were intentional walk/pitchouts, which don’t count. The highest real one came on April 12, 2013. It was 5.985 feet off the ground! So Smyly didn’t break a record, but he was close. Enjoy:
New English D Audio Episode 6 (5-8-14)
After a few weeks off, New English D Audio is back on a regular schedule. Today, we talk with Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish, which is part of the SB Nation network. You can follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisCotillo. Chris and I talk about his role in some of the big offseason news, including breaking the Doug Fister trade. We also discuss Stephen Drew, the upcoming draft and deadline, and what he’s thinking about baseball’s first month.
You can stream or download the show here, or you can subscribe and download on iTunes. If you have any problems downloading or streaming, please comment or let me know on Twitter. If the show is too popular and overloads the server or if MLB tries to pull more podcasts, you will be able to download the episode at this link without any trouble.
New English D 