How Was The Game? (April 6, 2014)
A crisp one with the wrong outcome.
Orioles 3, Tigers 1
Justin Verlander (2 GS, 14 IP, 2.57 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 0.4 fWAR) did his part across 8 innings, but after four straight victories the Tigers bats couldn’t offer enough support to complete the sweep of the Orioles. Hunter homered in the 4th to give the Tigers the lead, but the Orioles grabbed single runs in the 6th and 8th off Verlander to go up 2-1 and the bullpen didn’t do much to keep it close in the 9th as Alburquerque allowed an extra run to push the deficit to two. The heart of the order came around in the 9th, but they were unable to capture their third walk off win of the young season. After taking Monday off, the Tigers will take on the Dodgers Tuesday night behind Max Scherzer (1 GS, 8 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.81 FIP, 0.3 fWAR).
The Moment: Hunter hits his third homer in as many games.
One Quick Thing: Porcello Deploys The Slider
So for a long time, Rick Porcello’s biggest issue was that he couldn’t quite figure out his breaking ball. He was using a slider, but it wasn’t working for him at all and he famously shifted to a curveball in 2013 which worked really well. Porcello used it to improve his strikeout rate significantly and when paired with his solid changeup and dynamite sinker, he took the leap for which everyone had been waiting.
A funny thing happened on Saturday. Porcello pulled out the slider and it generated some swinging strikes.
If you’re not well-versed in the parlance of the game, pitchers who strike batters out are more likely to be successful, which seems obvious. But beyond that, pitchers who get batters to swing and miss are are more likely to get strikeouts. Apply the transitive property and you have Swings and Misses = Success. It’s obviously not perfect, but it’s a good sign. Porcello was already way better in 2013 without the slider (he threw one about 5-6% of the time). If this becomes something he can tap into on occasion (he threw 10 out of 93 today, including five swinging strikes), things could get very, very interesting for the 25 year old right hander.
How Was The Game? (April 5, 2014)
Everything for which one could hope, if you turned the game off after 8.
Tigers 7, Orioles 6
Rick Porcello (1 GS, 6 ⅔ IP, 1.35 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 0.1 fWAR) allowed a run in the 1st, but after allowing the first two runners to reach in the 2nd, he took over the game and made the Orioles wish they hadn’t gotten out of bed. He allowed a lone walk the rest of the way, finish with 6 ⅔ strong innings in his opening start of the year. He didn’t have to worry about run support in this one thanks in large part to Torii Hunter who cleared the bases with a double in the 3rd and launched a 2-run HR in the 5th to put it out of reach. Don Kelly tripled in a run in the 6th and scored on a sac fly and it would prove to be a massive one as the bullpen melted down in the 9th inning, allowing five runs in Valverdesque fashion. Justin Verlander (1 GS, 6 IP, 3.00 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 0.1 fWAR) will get the ball on Sunday looking for the sweep an a 5-0 homestand to start the year.
The Moment: Hunter clears the bases with a double to left in the 3rd.
One Quick Thing: Anibal’s Magic Pitch
Anibal Sanchez missed a little time this spring with a minor shoulder injury and had some bad fortune with respect to the weather over the last couple of weeks, which meant he had a short leash going into Friday’s start. He had some issues early, but settled in quite nicely during innings 2-4.
Last year, Sanchez had the highest swing and miss rate of his career, due in part to his ability to generate more whiffs with his changeup. On Friday, he threw a “changeup off his changeup” as Dan and Jim put it, taking some extra off the pitch to make Adam Jones look silly. You’ll notice that pitch way down there at about 75 mph.
This is a nice weapon. Not only does Sanchez throw a changeup around 83-84 mph to go with his 92-95 mph fastball, he occasionally breaks out a low to mid 70s version that works quite nicely. He averaged about one a start last year depending on how you divide up the velocity. They weren’t more effective than his normal changeup, but it’s a nice option to have in the ol’ arsenal. Plus, I mean, look at it.
How Was The Game? (April 4, 2014)
All backwards!
Tigers 10, Orioles 4
Things went well today for the Tigers, but things went a little bit strangely too. The game started a tad late due to some morning showers and Anibal Sanchez (1 GS, 4 IP, 4.50 ERA, 3.87 ERA, 0.1 fWA8) stumbled his way through a two run 1st inning. After that, he settled in, but would get chased by rain just an hour and a half later to continue his string of weather impacted starts. The bats woke up in the second inning as they cashed in three runs courtesy of a Jackson double, Avila walk, Castellanos double, Davis HBP, Kinsler single, and a wild pitch. When the rain arrived in the 4th, Castellanos and Romine were on base and Rajai Davis got the game under way after the delay with a three run bomb. Hunter followed two batters later to make it 7-2. Also included in this one were a Victor Martinez stolen base, a bad call at second base that Ausmus challenged, but somehow didn’t win, a heck of a throw by Andrew Romine, and then a Cabrera bomb that doubled as his 2,000th hit. All in all, it wasn’t a typical baseball game but the Tigers won it easily thanks to a tandem effort by Sanchez and Smyly and quality hitting. They won with power and made outs on the bases, so this is basically the exact opposite of the team they were supposed to be, but you tend not to complain about such things. They’ll try to grab their second series of the year Saturday afternoon behind the talented Rick Porcello (1st starter of 2014).
The Moment: Davis homers to put this one out of reach.
How Was The Game? (April 2, 2014)
More nice introductions.
Tigers 2, Royals 1 (10 innings)
Max Scherzer (1 GS, 8 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.95 FIP, 0.3 fWAR) looked a little uneasy in the first inning but settled in nicely, giving the Tigers 8 strong innings and a 1-0 lead heading into the 9th courtesy of Ian Kinsler, who got the Tigers on the board with a solo shot in the 4th. Ausmus also had a chance to issued his first challenge in the 6th on a Tyler Collins ground out and the called was overturned in the run up to the late inning theatrics. In his first save chance, Joe Nathan allowed a hit, two walks, and a sac fly to blow the lead and send the game into extras. In the bottom of the 10th, walks by Jackson and Avila set up an Ian Kinsler walk off single up the gap to give the Tigers their second win in as many games in their final at bat. The Tigers will give the ball to should-have-been-Cy-Young-winner Anibal Sanchez (1st start of 2014) on Thursday to try and lock down a sweep.
The Moment: Kinsler walks off in the 10th.
One Quick Thing: Nick’s Defense
If you visited New English D last year you know that we tend to do a lot of in depth analysis. I think that’s the strength of the site, but this year we’re introducing a new feature called One Quick Thing in which we analyze one small aspect of a player or game that doesn’t require 1,000 words and ten graphics. The idea is that these are small samples that may still be interesting. Today, we’ll start with a quick look at Nick Castellanos’ defense on Opening Day.
We have a decent sense that Nick can hit and he showed that on Opening Day with a pair of singles, but it’s unclear how he’ll be able to handle the hot corner. Not that he has a high bar to clear, but adding value anywhere you can is important. He had two chances on Opening Day.
The first was uneventful. A bit of weak ground ball that he had to come in on.
This wasn’t a terribly challenging play and with the runners on the move he could only go to first. Clean transfer and accurate throw. Didn’t trip over himself. Success!
So this one didn’t go as well. This is clearly a matter of Nick not knowing the dimensions of the park well enough, which makes sense given that he’s never played 3B there before Monday. He thought he had about three fewer feet than he did. On this play he needs to glance down for a second and find the wall. That should be a play he makes in the future.
It’s obviously too early to make any real judgments about his performance, but he executed one and botched another. Granted, Cabrera likely wouldn’t have gotten to the pop up, so it’s not as if it’s a net loss. When we have a few more chances to evaluate, we’ll dig in on his footwork to see how it looks after 18 months away from the position.
How Was The Game? (March 31, 2014)
A nice welcome.
Tigers 4, Royals 3
The Tigers returned Monday looking a lot more like the old Tigers than the new Tigers.They made a couple of miscues in the field and on the bases, but were carried by some mostly solid offerings from Justin Verlander (1 GS, 6 IP, 3.00 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 0.2 fWAR) and some power from the rest of the group. Martinez homered to put the Tigers on the board early and they unleashed a pair of triples in the seventh to overcome the three run Royals fourth. It was 3-3 going to the 9th when Joe Nathan made his first appearance as a Tiger and set the Royals down in order. Then came the bottom half in which, Alex walked and Castellanos singled to set up Alex Gonzalez for a game winning hit to left. That’s right, Alex Gonzalez, that guy we couldn’t believe they traded for had his hero game on Opening Day. The Tigers take an early lead on the Royals in the division and will call on the reigning Cy Young winner, Max Scherzer (1st Start of 2014), to take the series on Wednesday.
The Moment: Alex Gonzalez triples in the tying run and then walks off in the 9th.
Ernie Harwell Welcomes You To Baseball
Every year, Ernie used to read this quotation from the Song of Solomon on Opening Day. Last year, I heard a priest recite this in Ernie’s name in reference to the rebirth of baseball, Spring, and Easter.
For, lo, the winter is past,
The rain is over and gone;
The flowers appear on the earth;
The time of the singing of birds is come,
And the voice of the turtle is heard in our land.
Go Tigers.
Check back after the game for the season’s first edition of How Was the Game?
Screw It: Why The Tigers Will Win The World Series
I’m an optimist. I’m not really sure why. I’m a pretty anxious person and am heavily analytical. I know all of the things that can go wrong, but I still expect things to work out for the best. It’s hard-wired in, so we’re all going to have to deal with it.
Things didn’t go well this winter. There’s no way around it. I was disappointed and most of you were too. We lost Fister, Peralta, Infante, and Benoit. Iglesias and Rondon are down for the year. Dirks is out, Fielder is out for Kinsler. It looks like a lesser club, but you know what? They’re going to win it all anyway.
Despite the problems, winning a title is about getting to the playoffs and then playing well once you get there. That’s an obvious statement, but it means that they don’t have to be great during the season – they just need to be good enough to finish ahead of the Royals and Indians. Fortunately, that isn’t a terribly high bar to cross. Without the injuries and the Fister trade, they’d have been a mortal lock. They’re short of that, but they’re the best team. As long as the injury bug doesn’t bite any harder, they’ll make it to the postseason.
And once they’re there, they’re built to win. Even without the exceptional Fister, the Tigers have an extraordinary rotation. Verlander, Scherzer, Sanchez, and Porcello can carry them far. Cabrera and Martinez can drive in Kinsler and Jackson. Davis can run when they need to. You don’t love their chances to outplay the Red Sox over a 162 game season, but they can do it for seven games with this roster.
The Nationals or Dodgers will be a tall order, but the same logic applies. You don’t have to be built for the long haul, you have to be able to turn over the rotation one time. The Tigers aren’t the favorites, but they’re certainly in the conversation.
And that’s all it takes. The Tigers have two main weaknesses. The bullpen and their lack of depth. The depth thing won’t be a huge issue because you stick with your starters in October. Sure they’ll lose a little by not being able to matchup, but they don’t have a ton of guys with serious platoon issues. The bullpen is another story, but bullpens are weird. You can’t really rely on any of them, so all it takes is a bad week from Kenley Jansen. Maybe just one bad outing.
I guess the point of this exercise is that the Tigers aren’t the best bet for the title, but that there’s a very reasonable path for them to get there. I’m an optimist. This isn’t like saying the Twins will win the series just because anyone can technically win. They’re one of the best couple of teams in the AL and the difference between the top teams over a small sprint in October is virtually nothing.
It was a rocky winter, but it’s going to be a good summer and a great fall. Who cares if they probably won’t win it all? Until proven otherwise, I’ll choose to believe that they can. And will.
See you tomorrow, Tigers. We’ve all missed you.
New English D 