Jim Leyland’s Legacy
Jim Leyland changed Detroit. Not all at once and not all by himself, but he’s responsible for where we stand today. It’s easy to be unsatisfied two days after getting bounced from the postseason, but in the last eight years the Tigers have made it to the playoffs four times and won their first round matchup all four times. They never won the last game of the season, but they made it deep into the postseason in half of Leyland’s eight years. That’s pretty impressive considering they hadn’t made the playoffs in the 18 previous seasons.
Leyland never won the big win in Detroit, but most managers don’t. The Tigers won 700 games during Leyland’s eight seasons. Only four organizations won more – the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, and Phillies. In the eight years before that only the Rays won fewer games. Some of that credit, maybe even most of it, belongs to Dave Dombrowski and the owner that told him to build a winner, but Leyland gets some of it. Maybe even a lot of it.
I firmly believe that good players will win regardless of who sits in the manager’s office but there is variation among the results of equally talented teams. It’s Dombrowski’s job to build the team and it’s the players job to succeed on the field, but managers play a role in getting the most out of the people under their control. Managers execute strategy, but they also define the workplace and help motivate and teach their players.
I don’t think we can quantify the impact of a manager with the information available to us. I’m not sure if the difference between Ned Yost and Joe Maddon is five games or twenty games, but managers do matter. I’ve never been a huge fan of Leyland’s bullpen choices or use of the bunt or really any of his assaults on modern strategy, but his players adore him. That matters. I don’t know how much, but just because I don’t have a good answer doesn’t mean it isn’t there.
Leyland changed the culture in Detroit and there’s a lot to be said for his ability to recruit free agents and make young players feel at home. If you like your boss, you’re going to perform better. Players adore Jim Leyland. It’s clear from their comments but it’s also clear from the polling conducting by outlets like SI that ask who players would most like to play for. I don’t know if Leyland’s clubhouse skills add ten wins to the Tigers or if they add two, but all else equal I’d rather have a manager that players want to run through a wall for than a manager they don’t.
From a tactical standpoint, the Tigers can do much better than Leyland, but from an interpersonal perspective he’s one of the best there is. I don’t think good leaders and good tacticians are mutually exclusive. I’d like the next manager to push the right buttons and stroke the right egos. Both are valuable and we should always strive for the best possible mix of both qualities.
My lasting images of Leyland are from the early days. He used to march out to the mound and talk to pitchers, I miss that. And I remember him being carried off after the homerun in 2006 and the first time he cried like a baby on television. Like every Tigers fan, I wanted to strangle Leyland at times, but I also know that the Tigers are better off because he came here. He didn’t win the big one, but I don’t hold that against him. There’s only so much a manager can do.
I don’t know who the next manager will be. I have some suspicions and some suggestions, but that comes later. For now, let’s tip our caps to Jim Leyland. Somewhere along the line the Tigers went from laughingstock to powerhouse and I’m not entirely sure if that would have happened if not for Leyland. An ending isn’t something to be sad about, necessarily. It was time for Leyland to call it a career and he went out on his terms with the organization in much better shape than when he arrived. I don’t know how much of that is because of him, but I know some of it was and I will always be grateful for that.
The First Last Word on the 2013 Tigers
In the days and weeks ahead of us, I’ll spend a lot of column inches breaking down the 2013 Tigers. There’s so much to analyze and dissect. This was one of the best pitching staffs in baseball history and arguably one of the best Tigers teams of all time. Miguel Cabrera had what I suspect will stand as the feather in his Hall of Fame cap. Sanchez, Fister, Scherzer. Everybody. So many great moments and great seasons. That’s what will come next. I’ll also talk a lot about the way forward and how the 2014 Tigers will look different from the 2013 version. There’s lots of ground to cover there, too. History marches on.
First, it’s time for perspective. We’ll talk about the rest later. Everything else can wait. Right now, we have to figured out how we, as fans, move on with our lives. That sounds melodramatic, but I bet most of you are already nodding your heads.
I think it’s important to remember a few things. To start, the Tigers made it deeper into the postseason than all but two teams. The Red Sox and the Cardinals are the only ones still standing and those are two great teams and great organizations. I think the Tigers were the best team in baseball this year, but it was darn close. There’s no shame in a Bronze metal.
I know a lot of you don’t want to hear that. It was World Series or bust. But this is baseball and baseball is ridiculous. This isn’t the NBA. The best teams don’t always win and games are heavily influenced by randomness. You can do everything right, spend every dollar you have, and pray to all of the right Gods and you still might not win it all. That’s the game. You can’t be mad at the Tigers for what is inherent in the sport.
And you can’t ignore Miguel Cabrera’s injury. The Tigers lost three ALCS games by one run. A healthy Cabrera helps them win one of those games. There’s nothing you can do about that. That’s how life works. The Tigers lost their best player at the worst time. Hard to overcome. Bad break.
People are going to talk about the bullpen. It’s not great, but the Tigers lost 1-0 in Game 3 and 4-3 in Game 5. The bullpen didn’t do that. Bullpens are bullpens. Sometimes they blow games. If you’re upset about your bullpen being fickle, start working on cloning Mariano Rivera.
And Prince had a bad series and a down year. He makes a lot of money and that invites criticism, but give the guy a break. He’s not trying to play poorly. He’s not trying to suck. You’ve all had those days and those weeks when you just can’t get anything right. I know you want to be angry and run the guy out of town, I guess you’re entitled to that opinion. But he’s one of us and that’s not how I’m going to treat family. Prince had a bad year off the field. He doesn’t need you on his back, he needs you watching it.
There’s more to say about how Leyland managed the team, too. I’ve been critical and I think my critiques have been fair. But they didn’t lose because of him. They lost because the other team was better. Leyland could have been better this year, but they made it to the ALCS in spite of that and didn’t lose in the ALCS because of it. I think the TIgers would be better off going in another direction next year, but I’m not losing sleep if he comes back. He loves the city and his players love him.
I think it really comes down to your expectations. When a baseball season starts, I expect the team to give me six months of entertainment. I want them to give me something to laugh, cry, cheer, and argue about. I want to win, but winning isn’t the only way I’m happy. They did their best. They showed up. That’s all I really ask. Maybe you demand more, but they gave you a lot. They took the Red Sox to six games. There isn’t really much farther you can take it. Yeah, they came up short, but if you demand a championship every year, your expectations are the problem, not the team.
I had fun this year. I love this team and I really enjoyed writing about them and interacting with all of you. I’m sick to my stomach that it’s over, but that’s not because I’m disappointed. I’m just sad that it’s over. I hate coming home after a long day and not being able to turn on the Tigers. Win or lose, the season ends in 11 days.
It’s going to take a few days to really come to terms with it, but when you’re ready to talk, I’ll be here. This was a great year. A fantastic year. Even if you’re not quite ready to see it yet.
How Was The Game? (October 19, 2013)
The end of the line.
Red Sox 5, Tigers 2 (Sox win the series 4-2)
Most of the time, I love endings. I like getting to the end of books, movies, TV shows, parts of life, etc, but the end of a baseball season never come easy. The Tigers played their final game tonight, on the road at Fenway Park. They trailed 1-0 after 5, but grabbed a pair of runs in the 6th to back Max Scherzer, but faltered in their attempt to pile on thanks to a baserunning miscue by Fielder. They led 2-1 entering the 7th inning – nine defensive outs away from forcing Game 7. The gates opened in a variety of ways in that inning in part thanks to a call. In part thanks to a bobble by the best defender we’ve got. In part thanks to a terrible 0-2 pitch from the reliever we acquired to settle our pen. There wasn’t one thing that did the Tigers in on Saturday night. It was a lot of things. There’s no shame in the overall result – losing to the Sox in the ALCS – given that the Tigers best player was a shell of himself for the entire postseason, but this particular one stings. It’s always going to sting. That’s how this works. We pour our hearts into the season and baseball crushes us. It’s designed to crush us. It’s impossible to know how things would have been different if any one of the mistakes had gone differently and you shouldn’t bother trying. The Sox and the Tigers were the two best teams in the AL and the Tigers lost in 6 games with their best player held together with duct tape and superglue. The result doesn’t bother me, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t suck. They’ll go back to the drawing board this winter and fine tune the roster that’s come 6 or fewer wins from the World Series in each of the last three seasons and will likely send Justin Verlander to the mound against the Royals on the final day of March, five long months from now.
The Moment: Martinez drives in a pair to take the lead in the 6th.
How Was The Game? (October 17, 2013)
A missed opportunity.
Red Sox 4, Tigers 3 (Sox lead series 3-2)
Anibal Sanchez (3 GS, 16.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 5.07 FIP) had a bad inning. That’s about the size of it. He gave his team 6 innings, but he allowed 3 runs in the second and one more in the third to leave the Tigers trailing 4-0 early. They clawed back thanks to some amazing defense by Iglesias some timely hits that pushed across single runs in the 5th, 6th, and 7th innings, but the key moment was Cabrera grounding into a double play with two on and no out in the 7th inning to quell the rally and keep the Tigers from completing the comeback. The Tigers certainly had their chances in this one, but a few key mistakes pushed them to the brink of elimination, requiring two victories in Boston to claim their second straight pennant. Game 6 will be Saturday with Max Scherzer (16 IP, 2.25 ERA, 1.92 FIP) on the hill thinking about getting it to Verlander on Sunday.
The Moment: Jose Iglesias makes the most preposterous play in baseball since his last most ridiculous play.
How Was The Game? (October 16, 2013)
Business as usual for the pitchers, business like August for the offense.
Tigers 7, Red Sox 3 (Series Tied 2-2)
A day after falling to the Sox 1-0 and three days after losing in soul-crushing fashion, the Tigers turned to Doug Fister (2 GS, 12 IP, 3.00 ERA, 3.05 FIP) to keep them from the brink of elimination. Fister did his job, holding the Sox to a single run across 6 innings courtesy of 7 K and 1 walk, but for a change of pace the offense carried the load. Jim Leyland made a much publicized lineup change and Jake Peavy’s three walk inning collided with a misplay from Pedroia and a couple of Tigers hits to generate a runaway inning in which the Tigers jumped ahead for good. Jackson also reached base four times in his new spot and Cabrera stole a base because that’s apparently what you do if you hit second. All in all, the Tigers handled their business and turned the series into a best of three with Anibal Sanchez (2 GS, 10 IP, 4.35 ERA, 5.66 FIP), Scherzer, and Verlander lined up to go in Games 5, 6, and 7.
The Moment: Hunter doubles in a pair in the 2nd.
How Was The Game? (October 15, 2013)
An outage.
Red Sox 1, Tigers 0 (Sox lead series 2-1)
Justin Verlander (3 GS, 23 IP, 0.39 ERA, 0.75 FIP) entered this one on fire and didn’t slow down, giving the Tigers 8 innings of 1 run baseball featuring 10 strikeouts and very little trouble. The only run he allowed came on a solo homerun but unfortunately his offense couldn’t provide the equalizer despite a couple of late chances. They had two on in the 8th with one out but Cabrera and Fielder went down on strikes and their leadoff runner was erased in the 9th on a double play ball that came a pitch after a very low strike was called on Jhonny Peralta. The Tigers pitchers did the job on Tuesday but the bats didn’t come through and handed homefield advantage back to the Red Sox. We were treated to a pitchers’ duel and a brief power outage in Game 3, but hopefully Doug Fister (1 GS, 6 IP, 4.50 ERA, 5.38 FIP) will make sure the only thing lacking power on Wednesday are the Red Sox bats.
The Moment: Verlander dominates again.
Photo courtesy of @stoofner
Ortiz, Benoit, and What We Expected To Happen
In an attempt to heal from Sunday night’s crushing defeat, I looked into how predictable/unpredictable Ortiz’s homerun was off Benoit. The answer, both. Benoit was one of the best right-handed relievers against lefties this year and hadn’t allowed a single lefty to take his changeup out of the park. On the other hand, Benoit’s first pitch to lefties is extremely predictable, so it can’t be too surprising that Ortiz was waiting for it.
Normally, everything I write about the Tigers is published here, but I used some fancy software through one of my other writing gigs to generate some of the graphics, so it’s going to live over at Gammons Daily. Fear not, here’s a link to the post. Enjoy/try not to do harm to yourself after reading it.
How Was The Game? (October 13, 2013)
A nearly finishing blow.
Red Sox 6, Tigers 5 (Series tied 1-1)
Max Scherzer (16 IP, 2.25 ERA, 1.93 FIP) was given the task of following a near no-hitter and shutout in Game 2 and he did not disappoint. Scherzer rolled over the Red Sox taking a no-hitter into the six, while finishing 7 innings of 1 run ball with 13 strikeouts. He was as filthy as ever, perhaps even more so. He had all of his pitches working and had the Red Sox swinging and missing and also watching helplessly. For a second straight night, the Tigers starter made one of the best offenses in baseball look like a high school lineup. Avila knocked in a run early during an early threat in the 2nd inning that ended with an Infante double play. But the Tigers finished the job they started in the 6th inning when they chased Buchholz with a homerun by Miguel Cabrera and then a majestic two run dagger from Alex Avila to give the Tigers a 5-0 lead. The bullpen, well the bullpen, didn’t exactly do the job. In the eighth, Veras, Smyly, and Alburquerque loaded the bases and David Ortiz came up to face Benoit with two outs. It did not go well. Ortiz sent one flying into the bullpen and we went to the 9th tied at 5. Gomes reached on an infield hit and advanced to second on an Iglesias error that definitely belongs to Fielder. Gomes moved up to 3rd on a wild pitch and scored on a single and the Sox completed the comeback. The Tigers pack up their Fenway lockers tied 1-1 in the ALCS and they’ll take Monday off knowing three wins at home this week will send them to their second straight Fall Classic. Justin Verlander (2 GS, 15 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.65 FIP) will take the ball on Tuesday having yet to allow a run in the postseason.
The Moment: Alex Avila turns on one and launches a 2-run homer to put this one out of reach in the 6th.
How Was The Game? (October 12, 2013)
Strange, nearly historic, but ultimately successful.
Tigers 1, Red Sox 0 (Tigers Lead Series 1-0)
Anibal Sanchez (2 GS, 10.1 IP, 4.36 ERA, 5.66 FIP) stole the show on Saturday night in a pretty strange way, even for October. Sanchez had nasty stuff, but imperfect control and leveraged that into 12 strikeouts across 6 innings to go along with 6 walks. He managed to keep the Sox off the board in two separate columns, runs and hits. That’s right, Sanchez had a no-hitter intact when he came out of the game after six, but a six walk no-hitter is a no-hitter in name only and he was already over 110 pitches. In the postseason, you don’t bat an eye. You yank him. The Tigers grabbed their run on a Peralta RBI single in the 6th inning against the otherwise stingy Lester. The bullpens pitched to a draw over the final innings and the Tigers stole back home-field advantage with a win in Game 1 after allowing the first hit of the game in the 9th. They’ll turn things over to Max Scherzer (9 IP, 3.00 ERA, 2.94 FIP) Sunday night with a chance to go up 2-0 and put the Sox on life support.
The Moment: Sanchez K’s Stephen Drew to end the 6th with the bases loaded.
The Nonsense Scherzer Trade Rumors Debunked
On Thursday, CBS Sports’ Danny Knobler wrote a column with a provocative headline. It read: “Tigers may trade Scherzer this winter before cost skyrockets.” A couple of quick points should be made up front. This story is 100% speculation on Knobler’s part. There are no quotes from Tigers or league officials. There aren’t even anonymous “sources” or “reports,” which you know we hate at New English D. Second, Knobler isn’t someone who normally writes stuff like this, so I don’t mean this to be a critique of Danny’s work in general. But this was a joke.
His argument goes something like this. Scherzer is about to get a huge arbitration payday. Scherzer isn’t going to sign an extension because he’s a Boras client. The Tigers have a ton of money tied up in other stars and can’t keep spending. All of those things are facts, but Knobler ties them together to create a narrative that will generate traffic but doesn’t make any logical sense.
Let’s think about this logically. The Tigers will either win the World Series or they won’t this year. If they win the Series, are the Tigers really going to trade the centerpiece of the pitching staff that led them there to save $15 million? If they don’t win, are they going to trade a player who is likely going to provide 5 wins above replacement or so in 2014 while their roster remains intact to make another run? That doesn’t sound like the Tigers. They will either not care about the money because they value loyalty or they will still feel the pressure of winning and will have to keep Scherzer because you won’t find someone better on the market at any position.
But let’s leave that alone. Let’s assume the Tigers will act without making any sort of emotional calculation. There is no rational case to be made for trading Scherzer.
The only reasonable case would have to be crafted around his cost and a Tigers team that is cash strapped. But there is nothing to suggest that the Tigers are hurting for money. They drew 3 million fans and can count on the postseason revenue bump, not to mention incoming TV revenue from the league’s new deal. Maybe Knobler knows something about the Illitch family bank account, but that seems like a relevant detail to include in your speculation. Scherzer will cost $15 million or so next season, but that’s a bargain if he’s a 5-6 win pitcher. That’s better than you could do signing someone to replace him.
If we assume the trade would push Smyly to the rotation the drop off from Max to Smyly would likely be about 4 wins, plus the cost of replacing Smyly as the relief ace. The Tigers need to replace Scherzer’s 5 wins if they trade him and intend to contend in 2014. I can’t see anywhere on the club they could add five wins short of signing Robinson Cano, and even that is a stretch before you factor in the giant financial commitment. The Tigers could not trade Scherzer and get better for next season without totally overhauling their roster. There is nowhere to find the extra playing time.
So this would have to be about the future. The Tigers would trade Scherzer for a set of prospects and save $15 million. In this scenario, they add the future wins from the prospects but lose Scherzer’s value. In order for that to make sense, the Tigers would need to get enough of a prospect haul to account for the roughly $10 miilion of surplus value Scherzer will be worth in 2014. They need to get something like 3 wins back in the deal.
That’s before you factor in the time value of money (discount factor) and before you factor in the value of the draft pick the Tigers would get when Scherzer rejects the qualifying offer after 2014. Essentially for this to work, some team needs to send the Tigers a stud prospect or a couple of really solid ones and you have to assume the Tigers don’t mind being worse in 2014 as a result.
That just doesn’t make any sense. For trading Scherzer to make sense the Tigers have to intentionally hurt their 2014 chances – as their window narrows – so that they can get a player who will be slightly better than the draft pick they will get as compensation, all so they can save $15 million. This is a team whose owner ponied up for Fielder and Sanchez because he wants to win a title before he dies.
It doesn’t make sense unless you can get a team to dramatically overpay. I guess we shouldn’t put that past Dombrowski, but after the meltdown trade the Royals made this year, most teams should be weary of making a short term gamble on a starter. Max Scherzer is a 5-6 win pitcher at the end of his peak who will be on a bargain-priced one year deal. For some reason, Knobler is suggesting the Tigers will trade him.
To make themselves worse short term. To make themselves marginally better in the long term. To save money they don’t need to save. Without even considering the Tigers overly loyal disposition. Before you factor in the how much the front office adores Scherzer, it still doesn’t make sense.
Knobler wrote this piece without any actual inside info. I know he’s a smart guy, so he should have easily been able to arrive at the same conclusion I did. Why did he write what he wrote? It’s a sexy headline. Everyone shared it and talked about it. CBS got page views and page views are currency. He put out nonsense speculation. The best way for you to respond to this kind of thing is not to read it. Don’t feed the trade-rumor industrial complex and don’t let Danny get away with work that is beneath him.
I think trade speculation is the scorn of the sports world, but it’s even worse when you’re speculating during an exciting playoff series. If you’re bored in November, knock yourself out, but the season is still happening. There is actual baseball to cover. There are more compelling stories to write about Max Scherzer. You know, Max Scherzer? The Tigers star who is likely going to win the Cy Young after making significant improvements in his delivery a year after he dealt with a massive personal tragedy.
But yeah, let’s write about a trade that is never going to happen.
New English D 