Who Should Start Game One For The Tigers?
As the season starts to wind down, we continue to think about what comes after. For the Tigers, barring something horrific, they’ll open the postseason five days after their final regular season game in Miami in finished. Which means they’ll be able to choose any starting pitcher they want to start the first game of the ALDS – and therefore have the option to bring him back for game five. Who should that be?
It’s pretty safe to say that Rick Porcello isn’t the guy. Despite New English D’s undying love for the right-hander, we clearly recognize he isn’t the Tigers best starting pitcher and he certainly doesn’t have the kind of stamina that the others can offer. He’s likely heading to the bullpen for the playoff run, but even if he gets a start, he won’t get the most important one.
The other four starters are all elite guys. The worst of the four is 14th in MLB in WAR at 4.0. Twenty teams don’t have a pitcher with a higher WAR than the Tigers 4th best guy this year, so the options are very good. Doug Fister (4.0 WAR, 3.77 ERA, 3.30 FIP) is extremely efficient and gets a ton of ground balls. This could be quite useful in the first and last game of a series because you can usually count on him to work deep into games and get out of jams. I’d feel pretty good about Fister in game one, but considering the other options, he doesn’t really have a strong case. He has the worst K% and ERA of the bunch and the 3rd best FIP.
Anibal Sanchez has an extremely strong case because when you consider performance purely on an inning by inning basis rather than an accumulation of value, he’s been the best starter this year. He leads the team in ERA, FIP, and xFIP. He pitches deep into games and the only concern is the time he missed due to injury which appears behind him given the strong velocity he’s demonstrated lately. Playing the numbers, Sanchez has given the Tigers the best average start this year.
Of course, there’s Max Scherzer who is likely going to carry his very good season and fluky-wonderful W/L record to a Cy Young award. He’s been extremely consistent this year, having just a couple of blowup games. He’s had a lesser year than Sanchez inning for inning, but he’s been pretty close to Sanchez while being a touch more consistent. Max has accumulated more value thanks to more innings, but that’s the kind of thing that counts for awards but not for one game. It’s a tossup as to which has better stuff, Sanchez or Scherzer, based on the day. When Sanchez has all his pitchers working, he’s been better than Max, but Max has had all of his pitches working more often.
But the elephant in the room still lurks. Justin. Verlander. Certainly he doesn’t have the one year credentials of Sanchez or Scherzer and he’s had several more blowup starts than either. But the more you weigh past performance the more Verlander is the obvious choice. Since 2009, he’s been the best pitcher in the game even after a “shaky” 2013. And it isn’t close. The track record is Verlander’s case. And the fact that on his best day, he’s still got the best stuff.
It comes down to how you want to make the call. Sanchez has been the best this year, but Scherzer has been extremely consistent without trading much overall value. Verlander remains the one feared most by other teams because of what he could unleash. We haven’t seen vintage Verlander than much this year, but if you knew you were going to get everyone’s best, he’s the obvious choice.
Two weeks ago, I’d have felt really good about choosing Scherzer. But he’s struggled a bit. It’s probably just some random variation, but it could be fatigue. Or new scouting reports against him. Or just basic regression to the mean. Scherzer is great, but when you have so many good options, you wonder which you should choose. Sanchez has been quietly brilliant this year and seems fully healthy. But there’s still Verlander and he’s the guy who planted the seeds of this season.
Maybe he’s slowing down for good, but it’s hard to believe that when the velocity has been good on many occasions. I’m not sure I trust him the way I used to, but I still trust him a whole lot. It comes down to this for me. If the team the Tigers face leans more to the left, I want Sanchez and his changeup. If it’s a right-leaning team, I’ll take Scherzer. But that’s all up for grabs if Verlander shows me he can be JUSTIN VERLANDER over the final few weeks. It’s hard to leave that club in your bag, even if it has seen better days.
The last couple weeks will determine it, and I’m guessing Leyland will take Scherzer, but I’m open to Verlander and thinking about playing matchups when the time comes.
How Was The Game? (September 9, 2013)
Bad at the start and didn’t get much better.
White Sox 5, Tigers 1
Max Scherzer (29 GS, 194.1 IP, 3.01 ERA, 2.71 FIP, 5.9 WAR) just didn’t have his best stuff tonight, giving up 5 runs in 4 innings in part thanks to some poor defense on his part, but it wouldn’t have mattered too much as the bats couldn’t get it going against the excellent Chris Sale. The story of this one came in the 1st inning when Miguel Cabrera was ejected by the HP umpire after being hit by a pitch. The umpire ruled he swung (which was a borderline call) and didn’t honor Cabrera’s request to check with the first base umpire. Cabrera jawed at him, but not menacingly so and was thrown from the game because the umpire wanted to be on television (probably?). Leyland got his money’s worth and, wouldn’t you know it, Santiago had the same thing happen to him a few innings later! Although he didn’t get ejected. The Tigers will try to get back on track Tuesday against the Sox with Rick Porcello (26 GS, 153 IP, 4.76 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 2.2 WAR) getting the ball.
The Moment: Miguel Cabrera gets ejected for getting hit by a pitch!
Should The Tigers Bring Peralta Back for The Playoffs?
Very shortly, the Tigers are going to have to decide whether or not they’ll bring Jhonny Peralta back for the postseason. We’re three weeks from the end of the season and Peralta will presumably require some time to get himself back into game shape. The conversations are happening now, I would imagine, and we should know in the near future. Let’s assess the arguments for and against.
THE CASE AGAINST
There are two primary arguments against bringing Peralta back for the playoff run. First, Peralta’s skills might have atrophied over the course of the fifty game suspension such that he won’t be able to contribute above what a player like Ramon Santiago could. This is entirely possible, but it would require some sort of evaluation in order to believe. Peralta was crushing the ball before the suspension and there is no reason to think the 2013 season was PED aided, so the case would have to be made that he is out of game shape and the only way that case could be made would be to test him with baseball activities and simulated games. If Peralta was on the DL and not suspended, the Tigers would make every effort to get him ready for October even if he missed the same number of games.
The other argument against Peralta coming back is personal. It’s possible that the team is angry with him and wouldn’t be receptive to his presence in the clubhouse. Other than Scherzer, most of the Tigers kept their heads down about Biogenesis and Scherzer tempered his reaction once the full story on Peralta came to light. On top of that, the word is that Peralta was extremely well liked within the organization. I’m open to the idea that his presence could negatively affect the team, but the reactions to his suspension suggests that won’t be the case. The Tigers are a practical and forgiving organization.
So the case against Peralta hinges on two issues. Can he still contribute and would his presence create a hostile environment? We’ll revisit those questions shortly.
THE CASE FOR
Assuming the Peralta wouldn’t shake up the clubhouse, the case to bring him back is based on how well he can play. Entering the suspension, Peralta had what is still the second highest WAR (what’s WAR?) on the team at 3.6. He hit .305/.361/.461. Among the full time guys, only Cabrera has a higher OBP and SLG. Peralta has also been an above average defender for three years running now, although he is clearly no Iglesias in that regard. His value is predicated on his ability to hit and entering the suspension he was one of the best hitting shortstops in baseball. The league average shortstop hits 15% worse than league average and Peralta hit 25% better in 2013.
The argument isn’t really whether or not Peralta will be better than Iglesias in the postseason, the questions is if he is one of the 14 best position players in the organization. It’s hard to make the case that even after 50 games off he wouldn’t at least be better than Santiago or Tuiasosopo. If you leave Iglesias at short and Dirks in left, you have five bench spots to use. One is for Pena, obviously, and you need at least one backup outfielder, but it’s hard to make the case that there are three other Tigers you’d rather have on your bench.
In reality, he’s probably better than Iglesias, but that is still up for debate considering defense and time off, but he’s certainly better than Santiago, Tui, Kelly, and company. No doubt, no question.
THE VERDICT
So it comes down to this. If the Tigers players view Peralta as a clubhouse cancer, then it’s reasonable to say thanks but no thanks when it’s time to set the playoff roster. But short of that, the Tigers must include him. The Tigers don’t owe it to Peralta – who dug this hole himself – they owe it to everyone else. The players worked too hard and the fans have given too much not to put the best 25 guys on the roster.
It’s perfectly reasonable to say that after this break Peralta won’t be as productive as Iglesias overall, but when the opposing manager brings in a left-handed reliever to face Andy Dirks in the 7th inning of a 2 run game, do you want to go with Tuiasosopo or Jhonny Peralta? In the World Series, when you need to pinch hit for the pitcher, do you want to call on Avila or do you want Jhonny Peralta?
Even a lesser version of Peralta is a better bat off the bench than most of the options the Tigers have. Even if the time off has hurt his skills, it certainly didn’t diminish them to the point that he can’t be a productive postseason pinch hitter. This isn’t a fringe player, this is a guy who was and still is the Tigers second best player in 2013. If you’re going to go all in like the Tigers have for a title, you can’t leave this weapon in the shed.
This isn’t the time to make a stand on morality – a stand the Tigers didn’t make when Miguel Cabrera was arrested during the final weekend of the 2009 season. Peralta will have served his time and the Tigers are lined up for their best chance at a parade since 1984. You have to use him even if you don’t start him. If Iglesias or Infante or Cabrera get hurt in October, surely you would want him then. And you can’t ask him to be ready out of nowhere on October 9th, you have to start now. The practical thing to do is to get him working back into game shape and bring him along as a reserve.
How Was The Game? (September 8, 2013)
The standard Chen-experience.
Royals 5, Tigers 2
Doug Fister (29 GS, 186 IP, 3.77 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 4.0 WAR) did nice work today except for a three batter stretch that would prove decisive in the 5th inning. Gordon reached on an infield hit that Martinez knocked down and then Bonifacio knocked a single to right field to bring Hosmer to the plate with 2 on and 2 out. Fister got behind 2-0 but worked back even before leaving a fastball over the plate that Hosmer belted out to dead center. Aside from that Fister did his job, allowing 5 total runs in 6.1 innings while striking out 4 and walking just one. You don’t get extra credit for bunching up the damage, but Fister looked good other than a very poorly timed mistake pitch. The fault belongs with the offense who couldn’t score against Chen and the ‘pen aside from the Iglesias homerun in the 3rd and the Tigers dropped the series. They’ll pack up and head to Chicago to meetup with the White Sox for three starting Monday behind Max Scherzer (28 GS, 190.1 IP, 2.88 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 5.7 WAR).
The Moment: Iglesias turns on one against Bruce Chen in the 3rd.
How Was The Game? (September 7, 2013)
Badly timed.
Royals 4, Tigers 3
It looked as if the Tigers were going to wear out the Royals on this night, but after only cashing in once in the first they allowed the Royals to get back into the game. Justin Verlander (30 GS, 192.2 IP, 3.64 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 4.1 WAR) did good work for the majority of the game and made just one very critical mistake to Sal Perez in the bottom of the sixth that ended up in the left field seats. Verlander’s secondary pitches were good and he had plenty of velocity, touching 99 and averaging 96 across 7 innings of 4 run baseball that featured 7 K and 1 BB. The Tigers had some chances but only added single runs in the 5th and 7th to fall shot of the comeback. The Tigers will give the ball to Doug Fister (28 GS, 179.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 4.0 WAR) on Sunday looking to take the series.
The Moment: Nick Castellanos gets his first big league hit on a dribbler to second.
How Was The Game? (September 6, 2013)
A meaningful response.
Tigers 16, Royals 2
Just two days after absorbing a 16 run defeat at the hands of the Red Sox, the Tigers turned around and took their frustration out on the Royals in a big way. Anibal Sanchez (25 GS, 159 IP, 2.60 ERA, 2.47 FIP, 5.3 WAR) was quite good, but didn’t really have to be, finishing with 7 innings of 1 run baseball and 5 Ks and 1 BB. He touched 97 and breezed through while his offense made the Royals wish they hadn’t gotten out of bed in the morning. They got 5 in the 2nd, 5 in the 4th, 3 in the 5th, 2 in the 7th, and 1 in the 9th to finish this one early and often. Jackson, Fielder, and Avila had 3 hits. Hunter and Martinez had 2. Dirks had 5. Infante had 5. It was hard to keep track. Everyone was hitting. A lot. And this wasn’t death by a million paper cuts, it was good, solid contact that erased the terrible damage they did to their run differential on Wednesday. Despite the dominance, it counts for just one game in the standings, locking in the Tigers 82nd win and setting them up to take the series with Justin Verlander (29 GS, 185.2 IP, 3.59 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 3.9 WAR) taking the hill.
The Moment: The TIgers score 16 runs. How can you choose just one?
Which Relievers Should The Tigers Take To October?
With just three weeks and change standing between the Tigers and postseason baseball for the third straight October, it’s time to start thinking about using the home stretch to make some tough choices. Specifically, the Tigers need to address Jhonny Peralta’s status with the club and which relievers are coming and which relievers are staying home. I’ll leave the Peralta question for another day and tackle the relievers right now.
Let’s start with some basic assumptions. The Tigers are going to carry 11 pitchers and 5 will be the members of their starting rotation, even if one or more of them will pitch out of the bullpen. So that leaves us with 6 slots.
The No Brainers
Joaquin Benoit, Jose Veras, Drew Smyly, and Bruce Rondon are all locks barring a serious injury or some sort of terrible meltdown.
| Name | G | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR |
| Drew Smyly | 53 | 69 | 9.26 | 1.96 | 0.52 | 2.22 | 2.43 | 3.04 | 1.5 |
| Joaquin Benoit | 55 | 55 | 9.82 | 3.11 | 0.65 | 2.13 | 2.89 | 3.23 | 1.1 |
| Jose Veras* | 58 | 58.1 | 8.18 | 3.09 | 0.93 | 2.93 | 3.74 | 3.99 | 0.6 |
| Bruce Rondon | 29 | 27.2 | 8.78 | 3.58 | 0.65 | 3.58 | 3.22 | 3.43 | 0.3 |
*with both the Tigers and Astros in 2013
Using New English D’s own propriety metric, SOEFA, each of these four grade out as above average relievers for the season with Benoit and Smyly being among the best dozen in the game as of last Sunday.
| Player | SOEFA |
| Joaquin Benoit | 0.79 |
| Drew Smyly | 0.76 |
| Jose Veras | 0.15 |
| Bruce Rondon | 0.02 |
The Question Marks
We know whomever the Tigers call on has to currently be in the organization and we also know that Octavio Dotel is likely out for the season. That leaves the Tigers with 7 relievers who saw big league action this year. These numbers are in relief and as Tigers.
| Name | G | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR |
| Darin Downs | 26 | 33 | 10.09 | 2.73 | 1.09 | 5.18 | 3.46 | 3.31 | 0.3 |
| Phil Coke | 45 | 36.2 | 7.36 | 3.93 | 0.74 | 4.91 | 3.78 | 4.14 | 0.2 |
| Luke Putkonen | 23 | 23.1 | 8.10 | 2.70 | 1.16 | 2.70 | 3.81 | 3.62 | 0.1 |
| Evan Reed | 13 | 19.1 | 6.52 | 1.86 | 0.93 | 3.72 | 3.56 | 3.50 | 0.1 |
| Al Alburquerque | 44 | 40.1 | 13.17 | 6.92 | 1.12 | 5.58 | 4.18 | 3.59 | 0.0 |
| Jose Alvarez | 3 | 4 | 2.25 | 0.00 | 2.25 | 15.75 | 5.79 | 5.30 | -0.1 |
| Jeremy Bonderman | 10 | 15.1 | 8.22 | 5.87 | 1.76 | 5.28 | 5.71 | 4.61 | -0.2 |
Downs pitched well for the Tigers earlier this year before struggling and then missing time with a shoulder injury. He wasn’t added to the roster when the limit went from 25 to 40, which signals that the Tigers don’t plan to use him in October. That could change, but it’s possible too that he hasn’t fully recovered from his injury. If Downs is healthy, he’d be an obvious choice for me as he did excellent work until the last couple outings before going on the DL and has an excellent strikeout rate and no serious platoon issues.
Coke struggled with command this season and has become a LOOGY for the most part since returning from Toledo. Last month, I looked into his struggles and didn’t find anything stuff or health related to worry about. Coke seems like an obvious choice if Downs isn’t an option because the Tigers are going to want to carry at least 2 lefties.
Jose Alvarez won’t be needed for his length and it’s hard to think he’s a better LOOGY than Coke at this point. He’s a touch and feel guy who can give you innings, which isn’t that valuable in the postseason.
Luke Putkonen has a solid fastball and some pretty good numbers to match working in long relief (for the most part) this year as he bounced up and down as necessary. Putkonen would be a good fit in principle, but with Porcello likely heading to the bullpen for the playoffs, the value of a guy who can offer length is somewhat diminished. Putkonen is certainly a candidate, but it’s a tough call.
Evan Reed hasn’t spent much time in the show this year, but he’s done solid work during his stints with the big club. There isn’t much to go on with Reed, but he doesn’t really seem to have anything that distinguishes him from Putkonen in terms of what he could bring to the roster.
Jeremy Bonderman is an interesting one because the overall results haven’t been great this year, but he’s show the ability to come in and slam the door at times this year. September will be key for evaluating Bonderman because I’m not sure if he’s capable of being a shutdown middle reliever or not. That might have been a flash in the pan, but I always thought his stuff would play up in the pen.
Al Alburquerque is going to be the key. His strikeout rate is nuts and if you need a big strikeout he’s a guy you want to be able to call upon. But he’s also extremely wild and might walk in the key run as well. He’s been hit hard lately and the overall results package hasn’t been great. He has a high payoff potential, but you’re also scared to use him to some extent with too much on the line. He might punish hitters with his slider or he might get creamed.
Which leaves us with a tough choice. It’s hard to imagine Coke, who had so much success last October and remains the best LOOGY option, doesn’t get invited to the dance. Unless he lays a big egg in the final days, he’s going to join the four-headed monster – even if I would prefer a healthy Downs.
The last righty is a tough one because of the different dynamic in October. If you need length in the pen, you’re going to use Porcello because you don’t need a guy who “saves the pen,” you need a guy who holds the lead at all costs. So a swingman, mop up type isn’t what you need. If Al-Al in the zone, he’d be in for sure, but he isn’t and a guy like Putkonen could be a safe option. He’s not going to come in and get you a big K the way Al-Al could, but you have Rondon for that and you don’t have to worry about holding back in October. The marathon is over and it’s time to sprint.
It’s tough, but I think you have to try it with Alburquerque. He’s a high risk, high reward pick but he brings a skill to the table that Putkonen, Reed, and Bonderman don’t. Presumably, with all of the off days in October and the finish line in sight, you can pitch with a short pen if Al-Al loses it and can’t be trusted. But if he hits one of his grooves, the benefits will be huge.
Should We Worry About Smyly?
Drew Smyly has had a fantastic year out of the Tigers bullpen. That’s hard to argue. He’s thrown 69 innings, turned in a 2.22 ERA and 2.43 FIP (what’s FIP?) to go along with a 1.5 WAR (what’s WAR?). He has struck out 26% of opposing hitters and walked just 5.5%. He’s been otherworldly against lefties and pretty good against righties. In fact, until August, he was dominating righties as well.
In August, Smyly had a rough go of it. It was only 8 innings and 35 batters, but it wasn’t good. It was the equivalent of one or two really bad starts, but for a reliever it looks worse. But even after that rough August, our own reliever metric, SOEFA, still likes him as the 11th best reliever in the game this year. So let’s take a look at his monthly splits and see if there is anything we should worry about going into October:
| Split | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
| Mar/Apr | 18 | 1.50 | 0.188 | 0.246 | 0.250 | 0.226 |
| May | 14.2 | 3.07 | 0.214 | 0.267 | 0.321 | 0.263 |
| Jun | 16.1 | 2.20 | 0.203 | 0.281 | 0.310 | 0.260 |
| Jul | 12 | 0.00 | 0.159 | 0.159 | 0.159 | 0.141 |
| Aug | 8 | 5.63 | 0.353 | 0.371 | 0.735 | 0.471 |
So while it is only 8 innings, the ERA is way up, the average is way up, the OBP is way up, the slugging is way up, and the wOBA is way up. Hitters did a lot better in August.
| Split | K% | BB% | BABIP | FIP | xFIP |
| Mar/Apr | 29.00% | 7.30% | 0.273 | 1.65 | 2.95 |
| May | 23.30% | 6.70% | 0.268 | 2.83 | 3.36 |
| Jun | 26.20% | 7.70% | 0.286 | 2.06 | 3.24 |
| Jul | 31.80% | 0.00% | 0.233 | 0.71 | 1.97 |
| Aug | 17.10% | 2.90% | 0.360 | 6.79 | 3.81 |
Smyly struck out fewer batters in August, but he also walked almost no one. You’ll notice a much higher BABIP and a clear spike in FIP. His xFIP (what’s xFIP?) goes up as well, but not nearly as much, which tells you that homeruns were likely a bit of an issue in August.
| Split | HR/9 |
| Mar/Apr | 0.00 |
| May | 0.61 |
| Jun | 0.00 |
| Jul | 0.00 |
| Aug | 3.38 |
Smyly gave up three big longballs in August after allowing just one all season long prior to that. That’s going to drive bad results over 8 innings. This is a small sample, clearly, but the exercise is useful in pointing out that Smyly hasn’t performed well lately. Is this cause for concern?
Using Brooks Baseball’s Pitch F/X data on his fourseam fastball, we observe this pattern in game to game average velo:
The average climbed until his 30th or so appearance and has been working its way down a bit since then, but there is a lot of fluctuation. There is a trend over the last dozen appearances, but not really as much over the whole season. The movement, which is a little harder to show graphically isn’t quite as crisp as his best days, but it’s not dramatically different. His release point is drifting very marginally toward the center of the plate, but again, not in a big way.
It just looks like he threw a bad pitch to Konerko and Moss and Salvador Perez hit a good one. That’s really the difference between a good month and a bad one for a reliever who only saw 8 innings. If there are signs of fatigue or an injury, they aren’t big, dramatic, and clear signs.
This doesn’t look like anything to worry about. Some are concerned about his workload based on his never having pitch out of the pen like this, but he threw 100 MLB innings last season and isn’t getting anywhere close to that in 2013 and is still 700 pitches or so behind the number he threw last year.
This appears to be a blip on the radar for Smyly who continues to be having a great season overall. Leyland appears to watching him closely and has gone five days without using him at this point. I’m not sure if that’s a good strategy or not. I think I would want him to get more regular reps down the stretch, but it’s possible he’s tiring a bit and Leyland knows something we don’t. Either way, nothing I’m seeing concerns me very much about Smyly and I expect he’ll be one of the best relievers in baseball the rest of the way.
How Was The Game? (September 4, 2013)
One you’ll want to forget.
Red Sox 20, Tigers 4
Things were strange at Fenway on this night as Rick Porcello (26 GS, 153 IP, 4.76 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 2.2 WAR) made some very good pitches during parts of the game and got smoked on other occasions. He allowed 3 HR and then left the bases loaded for Alburquerque to unload, pushing Porcello to 5 IP and 8 ER, but can at least take some (?) comfort in the fact that he did throw some nasty curves early in this one. The bats did a decent job scoring early, but it’s hard to match 20 runs (twelve of which came after Porcello left). Not a whole lot you can do about this one, other than to forget it and get ready for Kansas City on Friday with Anibal Sanchez (24, 151.1 IP, 2.68 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 5.0 WAR) taking the ball.
The Moment: Mario Impemba calls two innings from a cell phone as the FSD’s microphones go down.
How Was The Game? (September 3, 2013)
The wrong side of a duel.
Red Sox 2, Tigers 1
Max Scherzer (28 GS, 190.1 IP, 2.88 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 5.7 WAR) gave the Tigers 7+ strong innings of 2 run baseball in which he walked 3 and struck out 8 Red Sox, but his team was unable to gather the necessary offense to carry them to victory. Leyland made some strange bullpen choices in the 8th, going to Coke and Putkonen, but no damage was done. However, when you only score one run – on an Iglesias double in the second – it’s unlikely that you’re going to win. The Tigers will have a chance to take the series Wednesday night with Rick Porcello (25 GS, 148 IP, 4.44 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 2.6 WAR) taking the ball.
The Moment: Iglesias drives one in against his former club.
New English D 