2013 Preseason Power Rankings: 20-11
Yesterday I gave you the bottom third of my 2013 Preseason Rankings and today I present you with the middle third. Remember, this is how I view the quality of each team for 2013 and not how many wins I believe each team will accumulated. For example, I have the #21 Pirates winning more games than the team ahead of them because I expect them to have an easier time in their own division and think they’ll benefit from more good fortune as well.
20. Boston Red Sox
It’s been a rough 18 months for the Red Sox, but they enter 2013 without the weight of big contracts or expectations. They shed payroll thanks to the big spending Dodgers and made smaller commitments to free agents this offseason like Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew, David Ross, Johnny Gomes, and Ryan Dempster. The Sox have a pitching staff that should bounce back to some degree in 2013 and adding Joel Hanrahan should thicken up the back end of the pen. I think the Sox will be respectable this season, but I couldn’t make a case for them in the top half of the teams in the league and felt more comfortable calling them the 20th best team for 2013.
19. Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are a pretty good offensive team led by Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez, but their pitching is somewhat suspect. Without any serious moves to improve their rotation or bullpen, I couldn’t do much to move them up this list. Expect the Crew to hit well, but I can’t see them preventing enough runs to make a postseason run.
18. New York Mets
I think the Mets are one elite outfielder and one pretty good outfielder away from being a legitimate playoff contender. They have a franchise player in David Wright and some nice supporting pieces on offense, but that usually won’t be enough to knock on the door of 90 wins. I’m a huge fan of the Mets rotation, even without Dickey in 2013 and think the bullpen should be better than it was a season ago. I don’t think this is the year for the Mets, but I also think they are a lot better than people think.
17. Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles had a great 2012 season, but that greatness came on the backs of a lot of good fortune. I find it hard to believe they’ll be as lucky in extra inning and one run games again in 2013 and they also didn’t make any upgrades to the roster. A full season of Manny Machado will help and Dylan Bundy may get a chance to make an impact, but I’m expecting a low to mid 80s win total rather than a mid 90s one.
16. Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are just a really average team. They have some frontline arms, but not much depth in the rotation or the pen for my taste. A lot of their bats have breakout potential, but they’re also very inconsistent. We saw last season, with much of the same roster, that a team like this can have a few good months, but they almost never hold up over a full season. This is an 80-85 win team in its purest form.
15. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Dbacks made a lot of moves this offseason. They dealt Justin Upton, Chris Young, and Trevor Bauer, but got back Martin Prado, and many prospects and depth pieces. I think their pitching depth is phenomenal, but I think their top tier is lacking. On offense they have a lot of players I really like, but also have holes and question marks. This is a pretty good team and their ranking is more a function of how I feel about other teams than how I feel about them. While I told you I couldn’t put the Red Sox higher than 15th, I should probably say I can’t imagine putting the Dbacks any lower than this.
14. Oakland Athletics
Oakland is going to need some good luck to get back to 94 wins this season, but Billy Beane and they A’s had a nice offseason. They added some low cost high upside pieces that I think will pay off, but if last year’s formula is going to work, a lot of players are going to have to repeat career best type performances. I’m not sure they can do that, but I’d look for them to remain relevant into September.
13. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have an incredible top three in their rotation and one of baseball’s best relievers anchoring their pen. They also have a great middle infield and an up and coming centerfielder. I worry deeply about everything else. They are a mess in the corners and their catcher is out for the first twenty five games of the season. This team has the ability to be very good, but I think their floor is also pretty low as well. I like them enough to put them in the top 13, but they could easily fall back if some of their gambles start to turn sour quickly.
12. New York Yankees
The Yankees are aging, but they’re still a talented team even if they aren’t the best team in the league anymore. The top of the rotation is good, but it lacks depth and offensive side is deep even if their star power is waning. A playoff berth wouldn’t surprise me for the Yanks, but I think they’ll be just on the outside this year.
11. Los Angeles Dodgers
They spent a ton of money via free agency and trades, but I’m still not sold on the Dodgers as a great team. They’re weak at 3B, 2B and potentially in the corner outfield spots depending on health. They have an excellent top two in the rotation, but I don’t love it south of there. The Dodgers are a good team, but paying Crawford and Gonzalez $40 million a season doesn’t scream playoff berth. You know how I know that? The Red Sox have already tried it twice.
Check back tomorrow for spots 10-1.
2012 Season in Review: American League Central
The AL Central produced the MVP, pennant winner, and Cy Young runner up in 2012, but other than that, it wasn’t the most exciting year for baseball’s most made fun of division. Sure the Tigers boast a lot of stars and Phil Humber threw a perfect game, but that didn’t earn them a lot of respect.
Here’s how the final standings shook out:
And this is how it played out over time:
Followed by my 2013 projections:
And a final look at my 2012 grades:
AL Central MVP: Miguel Cabrera
AL Central Cy Young: Justin Verlander
Helping Michael Bourn Find Work
Michael Bourn is still unemployed. He was one of the best players available on the free agent market this year and was one of baseball’s most valuable players in 2012, but he does not have a team lined up for 2013.
Before going any further we can assume that the reason for this is that Bourn wants more money than any team is willing to offer right now and believes that some team will meet his price before the season begins. At some point, a team will either match his price or he will decide to lower his price, which a team will then decide to meet.
That’s a pretty straightforward understanding of how negotiations work. One side or both sides are currently unrealistic about the expectations of the other side. This will change eventually and Bourn will sign, the questions is, with who?
What teams are most likely to pay the most for Bourn?
Bourn is no slouch. He is entering his age 30 season and has posted 4.0 WAR or better in four straight seasons with a 6.4 coming in 2012. He’s an elite defender (career UZR/150 of 11.5 and a UZR of 22.4 in 2012) and baserunner (5 straight years of 40 or more SB) and gets on base at at .340 clip or better.
In terms of straight value, you’re looking at a player who was work between $20 and $30 million last season and figures to be worth at least $15 million or more over each year of a 3 or 4 year deal if he stays healthy. And there is no reason to think he won’t stay healthy.
Throw all of that in a blender with current team rosters and what do you get? A list of teams that might sign Bourn.
Royals (5%):
The Royals probably don’t have the money to swing Bourn, but man do they need him. With two outfield spots filled by Cain and Francoeur, there is a lot of room for improvement. Bourn over Francoeur in 2012 would be worth something like seven wins in the standings. Even if you expect Frenchie to regress upward in 2013, there’s a lot of room to improve on a team that seems like they are committing to going for it over the next two seasons.
Reds (5%):
This only makes sense if the Reds are willing to make Ludwick the highest paid fourth outfielder in baseball. With Choo and Bruce locked into the outfield, this is a long shot but the Reds would benefit greatly from upgrading on defense and at the top of the lineup.
Braves (10%):
The Braves could resign Bourn even after adding Upton. If BJ will move to left to accommodate Bourn, the Braves could put Prado at third and have one of the better lineups in the NL. It might be hard to make that work financially given what some other teams might be willing to offer, but it’s worth exploring for both sides.
Blue Jays (10%):
The Jays are going for it in 2013. That much is clear. They’ve taken on a good amount of payroll through trades over the last couple months, but their outfield is a bit thin. Colby Rasmus is slated to be the everyday centerfielder and he isn’t exactly a picture of consistency. Additionally, Jose Bautista is coming off a wrist injury and Melky Cabrera is plagued by questions of his true ability following a steroid suspension. If the Jays can afford Bourn, he would be a good fit. They probably don’t want to make a four year offer, but if he decides to take a pillow contract, a one year, $18-20 million deal from Toronto might make sense.
Rangers (15%):
The Rangers can and should probably get by with a Martin and Gentry platoon in centerfield, but Bourn would be a nice addition to offset the loss of Josh Hamilton. However, the lineup is already crowded with Andrus, Profar, Olt, and Kinsler, so the Rangers are probably best left to keep their outfield unblocked.
Mets (25%):
The Mets are good fit for Bourn. They need outfield help, presumably have some money to work with and are not that far off from contention. Their rotation has the potential to be great in the coming few seasons and they have a number of players on the roster who could work as compliments to a contending club. They need a couple more core pieces, and a great defensive centerfielder and speed demon would be perfect for them.
White Sox (30%):
The White Sox make a ton of sense for Bourn. De Aza, Viciedo, Rios are capable outfielders on an average team, but they aren’t a group that you imagine would get you to a world series. If Bourn was on the team instead of Viciedo in 2012, they might have beaten out the Tigers for the AL Central. Additionally, Konerko is in the last year of his deal and Dunn has one more after that. A backloaded deal could easily work to make Bourn a piece of the Sox franchise for years to come.
2012 Season in Review: Chicago White Sox
85-77, 2nd in the AL Central
In the first year of the post-Ozzie Guillen era, the White Sox were a surprise team. They played much better than expectation until September, at which point, they collapsed and handed the Tigers back the AL Central. I had the White Sox finishing last in my pre-season predictions, so while they fell apart at the end, they should feel good about 85 wins.
Alex Rios had a nice bounce back campaign (4.3 WAR) and AJ Pierzynski (3.4) had one of the best years of his career. Alejandro De Aza (2.7) and Paul Konerko (2.1) were the other position players to cross the 2.0 threshold.
The offense was too weak to take them into the postseason, but the pitching was another matter. The first two spots in the order, Sale (4.9) and Peavy (4.4) were excellent and Gavin Floyd (2.0) was good enough. Jose Quintana even posted a 1.9 WAR in 22 starts. The last spot was a bit of a mess, the rotation was pretty solid, especially for the division in which they played. The Sox pen was also pretty solid.
The Sox faded down the stretch because they played over their heads during the first few months. They were a very average team and ended up a little better than that in the standings.
The brightest spot for me had to be Phil Humber tossing a perfect game on April 21st (during my bachelor party!) despite having completed the travel from hot prospect to journey/swingman.
The Sox have done virtually nothing to improve the 2012 roster, but they have held it together. I think they know that they aren’t in a class with the Tigers and didn’t want to go for broke when it didn’t make sense to do so. I think they’ll be marginally worse in 2013, even though they totally should have gone for Josh Hamilton.
2012 Grade: C
Early 2013 Projection: 83-79
Josh Hamilton and the White Sox Get Closer to Finding Each Other
A few weeks ago I wrote about the strange free agent situation surrounding Josh Hamilton. You can read the post here, but let’s consider where we are right now.
The Rangers will not sign Hamilton if they sign Greinke, which looks pretty likely. If they sign Greinke, they will trade for Upton and Hamilton will not have the Rangers as an option. The two clubs with the most buzz for Hamilton other than the Rangers are the Mariners and the Red Sox.
In the post linked above, I told you the White Sox were the real team to watch. I said they would trade Viciedo or De Aza and would add a lefty power bat. Hamilton would fit perfectly. Here’s a post on MLB Trade Rumors yesterday:
It’s happening. Hamilton will sign with the White Sox for 5/110. I can’t guarantee I’ll be right, but I feel better about this prediction than when I made it.
New English D 