2013 Season Preview: American League East
The East is kind of a mess. Boston is coming off a terrible year and a payroll reset. The Orioles had a magical 2012 and did nothing to bolster their club. The Yankees are dropping like flies. The Rays retooled. The Blue Jays got a makeover. Everything is different, but everything also looks kind of similar.
Like, I mean, could any of these teams win 90 and any of them win 75? I think so.
As always, here is how STT sees it. [Division Rank. Team (2013 W/L Prediction, 2013 Preseason Power Ranking)]
5. Boston Red Sox (77-85, 20)
If everything goes right for the Sox, I can totally see them making a run at a wild card spot, I just don’t feel as confident that they can put it all together as I do about the other teams in the division. They added a lot of players who could provide value, but they didn’t add a lot in terms of difference makers. Dempster and Victorino and Napoli will make the team better, but there are a lot of injury question marks and starting pitchers who I just don’t know how to project. The Sox have talent, I’m just not sure how it’s going to manifest. They won’t be an embarrassment but I don’t expect them in the playoffs.
4. Baltimore Orioles (82-80, 17)
The O’s had a great run in 2012 but 93 wins is a tough act to follow and some modest regression is bound to happen. They also failed to do anything to upgrade the roster that might have given them a shot to repeat last season. This is an average club in a deep division.
3. New York Yankees (85-77, 12)
The Yankees are pinching pennies ahead of the 2014 luxury tax threshold and it’s showing on their 2013 roster. They got outbid by the Pirates on a catcher and can probably only count on superstar performance from Robinson Cano. But that doesn’t mean they don’t have good players like Jeter, Teixeira, and Sabathia or good supporting pieces like Ichiro and Brett Gardner. The Yankees aren’t what they once were, but they’re still a very good team.
2. Toronto Blue Jays (87-75, 8)
The Jays added a ton of talent this offseason including Melky Cabrera, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, and R.A. Dickey. That’s a lot of wins added to the roster in addition to hopefully an additional half season from Jose Bautista and a bounce back from Rickey Romero. If everything goes right, the Jays could be one of the best teams in the AL. But I’m a bit more conservative on my prediction for them because they added a lot of talent, but it isn’t without question marks. If they play to their potential and stay healthy, they’re a force, but there is fragility among these players. The Jays should be contenders, but I’m not buying them as favorites.
1. Tampa Bay Rays (91-71, 3)
The Rays have insane pitching depth, the best manager and front office in the game, and have a history of replacing players who have become too expensive. I see no reason why that won’t work out for them again in 2013 as they ride one of the game’s best five staffs to a division title and a playoff berth.
AL East Cy Young: Matt Moore
AL East MVP: Evan Longoria
Most Potentially Pivotal Player: Josh Johnson
Storyline that Will Surprise Us: Ichiro will return to form
Boldest of the Bold: The Yankees will seriously listen to trade offers for either Cano or Granderson in July.
2013 Preseason Power Rankings: 20-11
Yesterday I gave you the bottom third of my 2013 Preseason Rankings and today I present you with the middle third. Remember, this is how I view the quality of each team for 2013 and not how many wins I believe each team will accumulated. For example, I have the #21 Pirates winning more games than the team ahead of them because I expect them to have an easier time in their own division and think they’ll benefit from more good fortune as well.
20. Boston Red Sox
It’s been a rough 18 months for the Red Sox, but they enter 2013 without the weight of big contracts or expectations. They shed payroll thanks to the big spending Dodgers and made smaller commitments to free agents this offseason like Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew, David Ross, Johnny Gomes, and Ryan Dempster. The Sox have a pitching staff that should bounce back to some degree in 2013 and adding Joel Hanrahan should thicken up the back end of the pen. I think the Sox will be respectable this season, but I couldn’t make a case for them in the top half of the teams in the league and felt more comfortable calling them the 20th best team for 2013.
19. Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are a pretty good offensive team led by Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez, but their pitching is somewhat suspect. Without any serious moves to improve their rotation or bullpen, I couldn’t do much to move them up this list. Expect the Crew to hit well, but I can’t see them preventing enough runs to make a postseason run.
18. New York Mets
I think the Mets are one elite outfielder and one pretty good outfielder away from being a legitimate playoff contender. They have a franchise player in David Wright and some nice supporting pieces on offense, but that usually won’t be enough to knock on the door of 90 wins. I’m a huge fan of the Mets rotation, even without Dickey in 2013 and think the bullpen should be better than it was a season ago. I don’t think this is the year for the Mets, but I also think they are a lot better than people think.
17. Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles had a great 2012 season, but that greatness came on the backs of a lot of good fortune. I find it hard to believe they’ll be as lucky in extra inning and one run games again in 2013 and they also didn’t make any upgrades to the roster. A full season of Manny Machado will help and Dylan Bundy may get a chance to make an impact, but I’m expecting a low to mid 80s win total rather than a mid 90s one.
16. Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are just a really average team. They have some frontline arms, but not much depth in the rotation or the pen for my taste. A lot of their bats have breakout potential, but they’re also very inconsistent. We saw last season, with much of the same roster, that a team like this can have a few good months, but they almost never hold up over a full season. This is an 80-85 win team in its purest form.
15. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Dbacks made a lot of moves this offseason. They dealt Justin Upton, Chris Young, and Trevor Bauer, but got back Martin Prado, and many prospects and depth pieces. I think their pitching depth is phenomenal, but I think their top tier is lacking. On offense they have a lot of players I really like, but also have holes and question marks. This is a pretty good team and their ranking is more a function of how I feel about other teams than how I feel about them. While I told you I couldn’t put the Red Sox higher than 15th, I should probably say I can’t imagine putting the Dbacks any lower than this.
14. Oakland Athletics
Oakland is going to need some good luck to get back to 94 wins this season, but Billy Beane and they A’s had a nice offseason. They added some low cost high upside pieces that I think will pay off, but if last year’s formula is going to work, a lot of players are going to have to repeat career best type performances. I’m not sure they can do that, but I’d look for them to remain relevant into September.
13. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have an incredible top three in their rotation and one of baseball’s best relievers anchoring their pen. They also have a great middle infield and an up and coming centerfielder. I worry deeply about everything else. They are a mess in the corners and their catcher is out for the first twenty five games of the season. This team has the ability to be very good, but I think their floor is also pretty low as well. I like them enough to put them in the top 13, but they could easily fall back if some of their gambles start to turn sour quickly.
12. New York Yankees
The Yankees are aging, but they’re still a talented team even if they aren’t the best team in the league anymore. The top of the rotation is good, but it lacks depth and offensive side is deep even if their star power is waning. A playoff berth wouldn’t surprise me for the Yanks, but I think they’ll be just on the outside this year.
11. Los Angeles Dodgers
They spent a ton of money via free agency and trades, but I’m still not sold on the Dodgers as a great team. They’re weak at 3B, 2B and potentially in the corner outfield spots depending on health. They have an excellent top two in the rotation, but I don’t love it south of there. The Dodgers are a good team, but paying Crawford and Gonzalez $40 million a season doesn’t scream playoff berth. You know how I know that? The Red Sox have already tried it twice.
Check back tomorrow for spots 10-1.
2012 Season in Review: American League East
What most consider baseball’s toughest division was tough this year as well. The Yankees led the way and the Orioles played out of their minds. The Rays won 90 games. The Sox were bad. The Blue Jays built well in the offseason.
Final Standings:
Playoff Odds across time:
Early 2013 Projected Standings:
2012 Grades:
AL East Cy Young: David Price
AL East MVP: Robinson Cano
2012 Season in Review: New York Yankees
95-67, 1st in the AL East
Lost in the ALCS to the Tigers
When the season ended on the 3rd of October, no American League club had won more games than the one that plays in the Bronx. They then faced off against the upstart Orioles in the ALDS and survived in five games on the back of Raul Ibanez. It was, at this point, that their season fell apart. Granted, only three teams made it further.
The offensive contingent followed Robinson Cano (7.8 WAR) and filled in around Nick Swisher (3.9), Derek Jeter (3.2), Mark Teixeira (2.9), Curtis Granderson (2.6), Russell Martin (2.2), and Alex Rodriguez (2.2). The failed to register a starter level player only in left field and DH and that was pretty close.
The top of the rotation was very good with C.C. Sabathia (4.9) and Hiroki Kuroda (3.9), but was shaky below either from poor performance or injury. A few good bullpen pieces helped out and they managed to shut things down even with Mariano Rivera.
The Yankees had a good season, but left the stage with a bad taste in their mouths. A-Rod was benched and Cano set a record for most consecutive outs made in a postseason. And that was only the beginning.
The offseason has been rocky. Jeter is recovering from a broken ankle and A-Rod will miss the whole season and has new steroid issues to deal with. The Yankees lost Swisher. They got outbid on Russell Martin by the Pirates. They’re working to get under next year’s luxury tax, so they aren’t spending big.
It’s hard to even recognize them. But they are the Yankees, so they’re make it work to some extent. They’re certainly no longer a juggernaut, but they have resources and savvy. 2013 will be rocky, but it won’t be a mess
2012 Grade: B
Early 2013 Projection: 87-75
Indians Get Swisher, Laugh Like Mr. Burns
Nick Swisher is underrated and Nick Swisher is now a Cleveland Indian. He’ll likely replace Shin Shoo Choo in right field, but can play left, first base, or DH over the course of his four year, $56 million deal (vesting option could take it to 5/70).
Most people figured Josh Hamilton would get more than Swisher on the free agent market, and we now know they are right. Hamilton got 5/125, which is more than 4/56. But that’s because Hamilton is overvalued and Swisher is undervalued. This is a great deal for the Indians. A great one.
Swisher is a young 32 and this deal will cover his age 32-35. Those are past his peak years, but not way into Alex Rodriguez territory. Swisher played his first full season in 2005 and was a full time player from 2006-2012. Over the last seven seasons, Swisher has never played fewer than 148 games. He’s never hit fewer than 22 homeruns. He’s had a walk rate under 12.3% once. He’s had an OBP under .355 once. He’s been an above average hitter and an average or better defender.
He’s been worth less than 3.0 WAR once in that span. All of these “onces” came during his worst season in 2008 where he was still an okay player.
Even if you figure he’ll decline into this thirties, he’s been a model player. Consistent power and patience mixed with solid defense. You can write him down for a 3 win season. He’s getting paid to be worth 2-3 wins over the next four season each, so if there is no salary inflation, he should be worth it. But there will be inflation, so he’s a steal.
Also, at $14 million a season, the risk isn’t so high that he’ll fall off the table and drag the team with him because he doesn’t have that $25 million price tag of Hamilton.
Swisher is essentially provides consistent, reliable production at the level that Hamilton averages out to. He’s a 3-4 win player with power. That’s what Hamilton is, but Hamilton has the amazing ceiling and flashes of brilliance mixed with the terrible lows.
With no inflation, Swisher needs to accumulate 11-12 wins to earn his deal. Hamilton needs to accumulate 25 wins. I’d much rather take the Swisher contract with a lower ceiling than the Hamilton contract with the bottomless-pit-like floor.
The Indians are a small market club and have a lot of work to do to build a winner. But in the weak AL Central, contention is probably not too far off. They have a solid young infield and catcher and an outfield that is serviceable. One more good bat and some rotation upgrades could get the Tribe near the top. Swisher is a good step in the right direction.
It will take some luck for the Indians to play with the Tigers in 2013, but anything can happen. Nick Swisher is a reliable player at a good price and he’s a fun loving guy who went to school at Ohio State. He seems like a natural fit for the Indians. He’d have a been a great fit for a lot of teams. It’s a little surprising a bigger market club didn’t offer more money, but fans in northeast Ohio will be glad they didn’t.
Grade: A
News from Nashville: Winter Meetings Buzz (Monday)
The news of the day from Nashville comes in many parts, but these are the three that caught my eye.
Red Sox sign C/1B/DH Mike Napoli, 3 years, $39 million
The Sox needed someone to play first base and hit for power after they traded away most of their team to the Dodgers in August and Napoli qualifies. I think a lot of this deal comes from his awesome but lucky 2011 rather than his pretty good 2012. Napoli can certainly be a useful hitter in 2013 and beyond but there’s no way he can provide a lot of value on defense.
He’s a DH who won’t embarrass himself at 1B and can catch on occasion. The Sox already have David Ortiz at DH and have a lot of options at catcher, so Napoli figures to be the starting first baseman. They probably should have gone with LaRoche here, but the deal isn’t too big to turn me off. Grade: B-
Anibal Sanchez is asking for 6 years and $90 million
A couple of things to note here. First, a rumor went around that the Tigers offered 4/48 and Sanchez was insulted. Jason Beck of MLB.com says that the rumor is inaccurate, so maybe this isn’t a thing.
The other thing to note here is that a former The Guy Show personality and I had this exchange over the Sanchez news (edited for emphasis):
Him: No way I’m paying Sanchez $90m and no way I give anyone six years!
Me: If you don’t want to sign six year deals, you will never sign big time free agents.
Him: For that money I would want Greinke.
Me: Greinke will sign for many millions more than that.
Him: I would do 6/110.
Me: Then he will sign with the Dodgers and not you.
What we can learn from this exchange is twofold. One, the Tigers won’t sign Sanchez because he wants #2 starter money. The Tigers have two #2 starters already and don’t need a third. Other teams need #2 starters a lot more, and will in turn, pay more for them. Two, Sanchez is not asking for too much. Six years is always risky, but $15 million a season is a fair price if you’re confident in his ability to stay healthy relative to other pitchers.
Salaries are bigger now than they used to be. Teams are paying $5 million per WAR right now and the new TV money is going to bump that up to closer to $7 million per WAR in the near future. Sanchez is worth 3.0 WAR, so this is not an overpay.
R.A. Dickey Trade Talk
Lots of buzz around the Mets dealing Dickey and the Royals and Rangers seem interested. Hard to tell how much of this is media driven speculation and how much is actually happening.
I’m undecided about this move because I think the Mets aren’t that far away and could contend by 2014 if they play things right. Dickey seems willing to sign and extension if it’s a fair deal and knuckleballers age well. If they buy his ability to actually replicate the last two seasons, they should keep him. If they think he’s a flash in the pan, they should move him.
Also! Big news! A-Rod needs surgery and will be out until May or June. I’m sure you are very surprised because none of the national media is covering this story!
Three Years After ‘The Trade,’ Schlereth is the First to Go
It’s been nearly three years since The Trade that sent Curtis Granderson to the Bronx, Austin Jackson, Max Scherzer, Phil Coke, and Daniel Schlereth to Detroit, and Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy to Arizona.
This shouldn’t really be news today except that the Tigers have cut ties with the smallest piece of that deal; Daniel Schlereth.
It’s hard to call this trade anything but a win for the Tigers at this point given how well Jackson, Scherzer, and Coke have performed over their three seasons with the club at a lower collective cost than Granderson and Jackson.
Granderson has 13.2 WAR since 2010 while making $23.75 million. Austin Jackson (12.3), Scherzer (11.1), and Coke (3.8) sum all the way up to 27.2 WAR and cost $9.5 million together. (Edwin Jackson put up 7.8 WAR in his two years of team control that the deal covered but made lots of money so he’s a wash)
So the Tigers basically added 14 wins to their club over the last three years and saved $14 million, so far. The deal will keeping paying dividends as time goes on and Granderson’s deal expires and Jackson/Scherzer/Coke remain under Tigers’ control.
But what about Daniel (son of Mark) Schlereth? You can’t fault Dombrowski on a deal that worked out this well…or can you?
Schlereth has been worth a whopping -0.6 WAR as a Tiger. That’s a minus sign folks. Many, many walks will do that to you. His Tigers career is over and he’s been worse than useless.
Let’s reimagine the 2009 trade without Schlereth in the picture. Tigers send Granderson to New York for Austin Jackson, Phil Coke, and Ian Kennedy. They then send Kennedy and Edwin Jackson to Arizona for Scherzer and Schlereth. Hmmm…
Could the Tigers have kept Jackson or Kennedy if they hadn’t wanted Schlereth? We’ll never know, but it’s interesting to think about. The Diamondbacks wanted to trade two pitchers for two slightly more proven pitchers. Could we have gotten a one for one? Kennedy for Scherzer or Jackson for Scherzer?
Could this be a world in which the Tigers had Ian Kennedy as well right now? Or Edwin Jackson for two more seasons? Even if the rotations were crowded, those are nice trade chips that would return more than a Daniel Schlereth right now.
This is a fun game we can play, but it’s also pretty crazy to get 14 more wins for $14 fewer million and wish you had done better. One of the pieces of The Trade has watched his clock run out in Detroit. Daniel Schlereth’s days in the organization are over and he will forever be the miss among the hits.
Which is fitting, given how much he missed the strike zone while wearing a Tigers uniform.
New English D 