Because today is the Day of No Baseball ©, anything remotely baseball related is getting prime space on SABR Toothed Tigers. That anything is a three way trade between the Diamondbacks, Marlines, and A’s.
Today, the Marlins sent RP Heath Bell to the Diamondbacks in a three team deal that shipped Diamondbacks’ OF Chris Young to Oakland and A’s minor league infielder Yordy Cabrera to Miami. Cliff Pennington is also coming to Arizona as part of the trade. Cash considerations were also involved.
While the monetary details are critical in evaluating this deal, let’s take a look at how each team came out of this assuming the Marlins ended up defraying some of the cost from Oakland.
Miami Marlins
Gave up: Heath Bell
Got: Yordy Cabrera
The Marlins signed Bell to a 3 year, $25 million deal last winter during their winter meetings binge that included a $9 million team option for 2015 that becomes automatic if Bell meets certain criteria. They seemed ready to cut him loose early on in the deal, and pulled the trigger today. Buyer’s remorse set in for Miami after a rough 2012 campaign that saw him post a 5.09 ERA in 63.2 innings with a BB/9 of 4.10. His FIP was certainly better than his ERA, but he still only posted a 0.4 WAR and seemed to be on bad terms with manager Ozzie Guillen.
The Marlins are running from a bad signing and are probably relieved to be doing so. Bell had two excellent seasons with the Padres in 2009-2010, but regressed significantly last season despite keep his save total above 40 for a third straight year. His strikeouts came down big time and his FIP and ERA both shot up. This seems to be a case of a team chasing saves, despite saves being a terrible indicator of how a reliever performed.
Yordy Cabrera doesn’t seem to be a big prospect, but does seem to have some tools that will translate on offense, including some decent pop from the right side. Most of what I’ve read seems to indicate he will have to move to a corner spot to have a shot in the big leagues.
Oakland A’s
Gave up: Yordy Cabrera, Cliff Pennington
Got: Chris Young
Cabrera won’t be missed in Oakland too much and Cliff Pennington is hardly a vital player to the A’s. Pennington had a strong 3.9 WAR in 2010 based heavily on his good defense at SS, but has never broken the 2 WAR mark in any other season. He lacks power and has been getting on base less than he used to, so Oakland can replace him pretty easily.
The addition of Young is interesting. He’s owed $8.5 million next season and has an $11 million option ($1.5 million buyout) for 2014. 2012 was Young’s sixth full season in the big leagues and he’s put together some pretty good campaigns. Both 2010 and 2011 saw him post 4.6 WAR and he managed to post a 2.8 WAR this season despite only playing 101 games. He’s never had a high average or OBP, but the defensive metrics love his glove and he does hit for power.
The other thing I like about Young in this deal is that his worst seasons seem to go hand in hand with a low Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). Generally speaking, BABIP can fluctuate for reasons that have nothing to do with talent (think opposing defense and luck), so Oakland might be making a smart bet that Young can bounce back in 2013.
What makes this more interesting for Oakland is that Josh Reddick and Yoenis Cespedes are definitely part of their 2013 OF along with Young, which opens up some of their other pieces for the trading block. We all know Billy Beane is pretty good at getting a lot back in trades, so this could give him an opportunity to make a profit on some players who played over their heads in 2012.
Arizona Diamondbacks:
Gave up: Chris Young
Got: Cliff Pennington, Heath Bell
The Diamondbacks may have grown frustrated with Young’s low average and OBP, and they could afford to with Kubel, Upton, and Parra as OF options for 2013. Parra’s glove is excellent, so he can make up a lot of Young’s value pretty easily.
The Diamondbacks added Pennington to complement their plan of controlling the leagues supply of contact hitter utility infielders (think James MacDonald, Willie Bloomquist, etc). I can’t say Pennington is a game changer for Arizona, but he doesn’t hurt to have around.
Bell is the wild card in this deal because we don’t know how much of his struggles the last two years are irreversible. He’s had a couple of strong seasons in his career, but he’s getting older, so it’s tough to say. If he bounces back, he’s a great add, if not, he’s next to useless. He walked more hitters, gave up more hits, and gave up more homeruns in 2012 than he did previously, so the Dbacks are betting on that being a fluke rather than a pattern. Chase Field is not a friendly place to get hit hard compared to Bell’s previous stops in San Diego and Miami.
Overall
This feels like a change of scenery deal that could benefit everyone. The Marlins got Cabrera back in a deal that allowed them to dump Bell. Basically, this was better for them than keeping Bell.
I think the A’s did great here. Adding Young without giving up anything too critical could help them with a boost from Young and the freedom to trade some of their currently overvalued assents.
The Diamondbacks will love this deal if Bell bounces back, otherwise, this was foolish. Young could easily provide a more useful return if they allow him to rebuild his value a little in 2013 before dealing him.
Most of all, I think the players are the big winners. Young and Bell were in situations where they were losing playing time and unhappy with the arrangement. They may not bounce back, but they will get their shot.