2012 Awards Series: NL Cy Young
Preseason Prediction: Cole Hamels (LHP – Philadelphia Phillies)
Hamels had a strong season in 2012 for the disappointing Phillies, posting a 4.5 WAR (good for 7th in the NL) and signing a monster contract extension. He went 17-6 in 215.1 innings with a 3.05 ERA and 3.30 FIP. The strikeout rate was excellent at 9.03 next to a great walk rate of 2.17. The Phillies lefthander didn’t have a good enough year to earn my Cy Young praise, but he had a very strong season and should be acknowledged for it.
And the award goes to…
Just like in the AL, three strong candidates emerge for the 2012 NL Cy Young award, but the SABR Toothed Tigers have to give it to someone who sabermetrics can’t quite understand; R.A. Dickey.
Dickey had a phenomenal season by most standards, but WAR doesn’t like him as much as our other two finalists, Clayton Kershaw and Gio Gonzalez. There is a simple reason for this, however. FIP (one of the biggest drivers of WAR) doesn’t know what to do with knuckleballers because they are so rare and have different results profiles than a standard hurler. That said, Dickey was still 6th in the NL in WAR in 2012.
Dickey’s 20-6 record doesn’t mean anything but he tossed 233.2 innings and posted solid strikeout (8.86) and walk numbers (2.08) to go along with his strong 2.73 ERA. His FIP was elevated, but that’s because FIP doesn’t understand him.
The only thing Gonzalez did better than Dickey was strike hitters out, but he threw way fewer innings walked more and had a higher ERA. WAR likes him better, but that’s the knuckleball problem and nothing else.
Kershaw is the strong contender. He tossed six fewer innings, had a higher K rate and higher BB rate, and posted a lower ERA. The WAR spread is +0.9 WAR for Kershaw, but I can’t help wonder how much that gap would close if FIP understood knuckleballers. It would at least close some.
I think Dickey and Kershaw are both good choices, but it’s hard not to give the tie breaker to the guy who threw more innings for a worse team and did so in such a fun way. Dickey was a great story and I’ll always give the tiebreaker to the better story. Plus it is hard not to love Dickey’s NL leading 5 complete games.
We can find plenty of worthy arms in the NL, but R.A. Dickey is this year’s best.
Full Ballot
5. Cole Hamels (LHP – Philadelphia Phillies)
4. Cliff Lee (LHP – Philadelphia Phillies)
3. Gio Gonzalez (LHP – Washington Nationals)
2. Clayton Kershaw (LHP – Los Angeles Dodgers)
1. R.A. Dickey (RHP – New York Mets)
2012 Awards Series: AL Cy Young
Preseason Prediction: Justin Verlander (RHP- Detroit Tigers)
Verlander entered 2012 in the prime of his career as the reigning AL Cy Young and MVP while looking to cement his place as baseball’s best starting pitcher.
And the award goes to…
Verlander. Three AL pitchers are in the discussion for this honor, but Verlander comes out on top and deserves to win his second consecutive Cy Young.
He threw 238.1 innings, posted a 9.03 K/9 along with his 2.27 BB/9, and ended the season with a 2.64 ERA and 2.94 FIP. All of this comes together in a 6.8 WAR which is the best mark in the AL and in all of baseball in 2012.
But I don’t want WAR to be the end of the discussion because it does a disservice to the other candidates worthy of mention, David Price and Felix Hernandez.
Both Price and Hernandez had great seasons and will finish a strong 2nd and 3rd on my ballot, but Verlander was better. At this point in history, we’re smart enough not to look a pitcher’s W/L record as a measure of value. You can win a lot of games if you aren’t that good and you can lose a bunch of games if you’re great depending on how your team performs around you. Cases in point this year are Phil Hughes’ 16 wins and Cliff Lee’s 6 wins.
Let’s start with ERA. Verlander trailed only Price in this season with a 2.64 ERA to Price’s 2.56. That’s a very small margin, but you have to lean in Verlander’s direction when you consider how poor Verlander’s defense was.
The difference is literally only two earned runs across the course of the entire season. Certainly we can all agree the Rays outdefended the Tigers by two runs over the course of each pitcher’s 30+ starts. FIP agrees by giving Verlander a 2.94 to 3.05 edge. Felix does well by this measure at 2.84.
Turning to strikeouts Verlander leads the pack with 9.03 per 9 to Price’s 8.74 and Hernandez’s 8.65. Price sports the highest walk rate of the pack at 2.52.
This isn’t the clearest of choices at this point. Verlander has the best K rate, the middle BB rate, and the middle ERA and FIP. But the highest WAR. He threw the most innings and did so in front of the worst defense. All three men could lay some claim to the award, but it has to be Verlander.
It has to be Verlander because he threw the most innings out of the group and because he had the worst defense. WAR says Verlander added the most value while he was on the field of the three, but what it doesn’t account for his how his extra workload took the stress off his bullpen, which could then be well rested to support the other members of the staff. Verlander pitched deeper into games and gave the rest of the staff what it needed to perform best in the start before his and the start after his.
He faced 956 batters this season and had a lot of innings extended by poor defense. Imagine how much deeper into games he could have gone if he had Brendan Ryan playing SS behind him like Felix did.
This is not an open and shut case. There are arguments to be made for Price and Hernandez, but Verlander tops Price for me on innings, Ks, BBs, FIP, and defense and Hernandez by innings, Ks, and defense.
It was another great year for the Tigers’ ace and it should end with more hardware on his mantle.
Full Ballot:
5. Max Scherzer (RHP – DET)
4. Chris Sale (LHP – CWS)
3. Price (LHP – TB)
2. Hernandez (RHP – SEA)
1. Verlander (RHP – DET)
2012 Awards Series: Rookies of the Year
With the 2012 season behind us, it’s time for some housekeeping here at SABR Toothed Tigers. Shortly before the World Series, we published my 2012 predictions as heard on The Guy Show for how the divisions and awards would play out.
Now it’s time to hand out some hardware.
Rookies of the Year:
American League
Preseason Prediction: Matt Moore (LHP-Tampa Bay Rays)
Moore was one of the top prospects in baseball in 2011 no matter who you asked and burst onto the scene in grand fashion in the postseason last year. He was a popular pick heading into the season and I certainly thought he’d be a top contender for the award. Moore had some growing pains in 2012, but he actually did have a respectable season.
Moore made 31 starts and posted an 11-11 record in 177.1 innings with a K/9 of 8.88. He walked too many (4.11 per 9IP), but a 3.81 ERA and 3.91 FIP is a strong season for a young rookie lefthander. He posted a 2.3 WAR which was 5th among AL rookie pitchers (4th if you don’t count the seasoned Yu Darvish).
Moore’s season was nothing to sneeze at, but it was a far cry from earning him AL Rookie of the Year honors.
The Award Goes To…
Mike Trout. Obviously. Other rookies had good seasons. Darvish, Jarrod Parker, and Tommy Milone from the mound. Yoenis Cespedes from the batter’s box. But, seriously, Mike Trout ran circles around everyone in this year’s award.
Trout posted an historic 10.0 WAR in 2012 which not only put him atop all American League rookies, it put him above every single player in Major League Baseball. Only three rookies have ever top 8.0 WAR, and none have ever exceeded Trout’s 10.0. The voting will be unanimous when the BBWAA hands out the award, but let’s just hit some numbers quickly just for good measure.
Trout led AL rookies in the following categories (these are just the ones I felt like looking up): hits, homeruns, runs, runs batted in, batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, weighted on base average (wOBA), weighted runs created plus (wRC+), UZR, BSR (baserunning metric), and WAR. Pretty open and shut if you ask me.
The full ballot looks like this:
3. Yoenis Cespedes (OF-Oak)
2. Yu Darvish (SP-TEX)
1. Mike Trout (OF-LAA)
National League:
Preseason Prediction: Devin Mesoraco (C-Cincinnati Reds)
Mesoraco was another popular pick in 2012, so I was not the only one to miss wildly. Mesoraco played in 54 games and posted a pretty terrible 0.1 WAR. The .212/.288/.352 slash line doesn’t help either. The defense was unremarkable and the offense didn’t do anything to make up for it.
I wouldn’t call Mesoraco a bust by any means, but the 24 year old backstop will need to find his form if he wants to catch 120+ games next season. His minor league numbers certainly speak to his talent, so there’s plenty still to like about the Reds catcher.
The Award Goes To…
This one was a little tougher. Okay, a lot tougher. Two clear candidates emerged in my book: Bryce Harper and Wade Miley. Todd Frazier was an option as well, but he’ll have to settle for 3rd place.
Rookie of the Year can be a difficult award to hand out because you’re often comparing players who have totally different jobs. Harper hits second for a contending team and Miley is a starter on a middle of the pack club.
Their WARs were nearly identical at 4.9 for Harper and 4.8 for Miley. Harper played 139 games, got 597 plate appearances and turned those into the following statistical profile:
22 HR, 59 RBI, 98 R, 18 SB, .270/.340/.477, .352 wOBA, 121 wRC+, 9.9 UZR.
Miley made 29 starts and 3 relief appearance totaling 194.2 innings. His line looks something like this:
16-11, 6.66 K/9, 1.71 BB/9, 3.33 ERA, 3.15 FIP
Again, their WARs are almost identical and they have a totally different role. Statistically, it’s hard to really separate the two. I’m going to throw my support to Wade Miley for the following reason, but a vote for Harper is absolutely warranted.
Harper excelled amid a good team having a great year, while Miley picked up the slack for a decent rotation. Miley was the Dbacks best starter by a good margin. Harper was the Nats second best bat, but they also had such a great staff to back them up.
There’s nothing particularly objective about that reasoning, but it’s hard to make an objective case for either of them. I feel pretty confident that Harper and Miley should be 1st and 2nd on the NL ROY ballot, but I really don’t know what order they should be in.
The full ballot looks like this:
3. Todd Frazier (3B, 1B, OF – CIN)
2. Bryce Harper (OF- WSH)
1. Wade Miley (SP-ARZ)
Check back Wednesday for Cy Young winners.
MLB Win Totals Project the Electoral College
Since SABR Toothed Tigers is run by a Political Science graduate student, we couldn’t ignore the presidential election. However, this is a non-partisan site that doesn’t want anyone to be put off, so we’re releasing our Electoral map based entirely on baseball.
Here’s how it works. We take the swing states as listed at 270towin.com (NV, CO, IA, WI, MI, OH, PA, NH, VA, NC, and FL) and apply baseball! The non-swing states go to the candidate that should win them and the swing states are determined with a simple formula.
That formula is this: Whichever baseball team(s) dominate(s) that state’s television viewing is assigned to that state. So New Hampshire is the Red Sox and the Pirates and Phillies are Pennsylvania, etc.
Sum(2012 Wins) – Sum(2008 Wins) = State win total
If state win total is positive, Obama wins.
If state win total is negative, Romney wins.
Basically, are you better off this year than you were when Obama was elected. Here are the results.
This specific formula is probably unlikely if you ask someone who actually understands politics, but most cable news channels don’t put those people on TV anyway, so our view is just as valid as theirs.
Based on the MLB Win Total Model here at STT, we project President Obama will be reelected 289-249.
Goofy Leaderboards: Infield Fly Ball Rate (IFFB%)
This week’s leaderboard comes from the 2012 leaders in IFFB% or infield fly ball rate. Which qualified pitchers and hitters force and hit the most popups?
Starting Pitchers – Most
1. Bruce Chen, 17.6%
2. Rick Porcello, 15.8%
3. Phil Hughes, 15.6%
4. Justin Verlander, 15.4%
5. Jon Lester, 14.4%
Starting Pitchers – Fewest
1. Edwin Jackson, 3.6 %
2. Tim Lincecum, 3.8%
3. Jeff Samardzija, 3.8%
4. Yovani Gallardo, 4.0%
5. Scott Diamond, 4.0%
Hitters – Most
1. Jimmy Rollins, 19.0%
2. Erick Aybar, 18.4%
3. Desmond Jennings, 18.1%
4. Mike Moustakas, 17.6%
5. Dan Uggla, 16.9%
Hitters – Fewest
1. Chris Johnson, 0.8%
2. Joe Mauer, 1.0%
3. Austin Jackson, 1.4%
4. Jose Altuve, 1.5%
5. Ben Revere, 1.6%
In a very lose sense, IFFB% tends to have a negative correlation with groundball rate. In other words, people who hit/throw groundballs tend to have lower IFFB%. Except there are two glaring exceptions on these lists (at least in the top fives).
Rick Porcello is a groundballer (>50%) but one of the top IFFB% pitchers. This would lend some strong evidence that Porcello is a lot better than his ERA indicates. He gets groundballs and infield popups. Imagine him with a good defense. What’s interesting about Porcello is that his GB% is consistent in his four year career (50-55%), but his IFFB% is increasing consistently every season (5%, 7%, 10%, 15%).
Chris Johnson has a GB% below 40%, but somehow has almost no infield popups. 60% of his balls are in the air, but less than 1% are in the air to the infield. That is crazy! His career numbers show this same trend, so it isn’t a fluke.
Take from this what you will, but at the very least these leaderboards highlight some players with strange tendencies.
2012 Season in Review: Houston Astros
55-107, 6th in the NL Central
The Astros started 2012 preparing for a bleak year and it only got worse. They dealt everyone on the roster who had any kind of name recognition who wasn’t injured and were running out a cast of no names for much of the second half.
For proof, I randomly selected the August 17th starting lineup.
Altuve 2B
Green SS
Pearce 1B
Maxwell LF
Francisco RF
Barnes CF
Castro C
Gonzalez 3B
Keuchel P
I don’t think I’m exaggerating when I say 1) That doesn’t even look like a good AAA lineup 2) I don’t know the first names of half of those players 3) I didn’t know who two thirds of those people were until this season. (This paragraph should be emphasized with the fact that compared to the common fan I know who everyone is.)
But a very dark 2012 isn’t reason to fret in Houston. The club is actually moving in the right direction. New GM Jeff Luhnow scorched the earth of the 2012 season to fill his minor league rosters with capable players. He added a lot of talent, and while not much of it is elite, the Astros can now look forward to some decent players coming up through the system.
They also drafted Carlos Correa #1 overall this year and the 17 year old SS has star potential. There is a lot of work to be done through player development, scouting, and Free Agency, but the team is moving forward.
Brad Mills lost the managerial spot late in the year and 2012 Nationals’ 3B coach Bo Porter will assume the role in 2013.
While 55 wins is essentially a replacement level team (i.e. how a AAA team would play in MLB), the Astros weren’t even trying to win this season. They were looking forward 3 or 4 years. This was a franchise in free fall the last couple years and they are now back on the long road to relevance.
They had just three players post WARs above the 2.0 threshold we normally consider MLB starter level (and one was Jed Lowrie who missed much of the second half). 2012 was dismal year on the field but a good one in the front office.
I’d be optimistic for their prospects next season, except they’re moving to the AL West. Moving from baseball’s 5th best division to its best division from 2012, not to mention having to contend with the DH, is going to be an adjustment.
It’s going to be a challenge for the Astros in 2013, but it has to be better than 2012.
2012 Grade: F
Early 2013 Projection: 65-97
It’s Good to be Zach Greinke
It should come as no surprise to anyone that Zach Greinke is the top starting pitcher on the market this offseason. He may not turn out to be the best value, but he is the best. It helps that Cole Hamles and Matt Cain signed extensions this season, but that doesn’t take away from how good Greinke is. He made my list of aces last month and I’m comfortable saying he would be the #1 or #2 starter on every team except the Phillies.
Most reports seem to indicate Greinke will fetch a deal of 5-6 years worth $95-$120 million. His most recent employer, the Angels are heavily in the running, but every MLB will likely kick the tires. He would make every club better, it will just be a choice of how much you can afford to spend on your rotation.
Some in the media have speculated Greinke won’t fit in a big market because of a history of anxiety and depression, and what is clearly an introverted personality. I think their view is wrong in the sense that he couldn’t excel there, but he might choose a smaller media market because he will enjoy it more.
I think all other things equal, he’d avoid Boston or New York, but won’t rule them out based solely on the media narrative that he can’t handle them.
So if we agree Greinke will command a deal of the size I predicted and that every team in baseball would benefit from having him, who are the likely Greinke suitors?
The Angels are the obvious choice because they jettisoned Santana and Haren to free up the money. They loved him down the stretch there and he would fit in well with Weaver and Wilson going forward. The Angels have the resources, the need, and the familiarity to make them a player.
The Rangers make sense, too. They have the payroll flexibility and could use a reliable frontman instead of their revolving #1 spot of the last few years (Darvish, Holland, Harrison, Lee, etc). The Yankees and Red Sox both need pitching, but Boston seems better able to afford it than New York considering the Yankees’ desire to get under the luxury tax cap by 2014. The Orioles and Blue Jays should be in, but maybe not at the asking price.
Many speculated that the Royals could reunite with Greinke, but adding Ervin Santana’s $13 million seems to have indicated they won’t be making a push. The White Sox could be interested given their push to trade for him in July, but it’s hard to say if their recent extension to Peavy will block out too much money in the short term.
In the NL, the Braves, Cubs, and Dodgers seem like possible fits. Obviously we learned last year that the Mystery Team is usually involved, but this seems like a pretty accurate list of teams that will play big on the right hander.
For me, the team that signs Greinke will be in Los Angeles. It will be the Angels or the Dodgers. Both have the money and the need and both are good environments to pitch in. There will be a lot of teams involved, so predicting the landing spot is tough, but I’d take these two clubs against the field.
It’s not every year that you can add an ace to your staff through Free Agency, and it’s not every year that the market is as soft as it is this year. Translation? It’s good to be Zach Greinke right now.
Haren for Marmol? Um…what?
Baseball was having fun with us yesterday. Yesterday afternoon reports broke that the Angels traded RHP Dan Haren to the Cubs for RHP Carlos Marmol. My verbatim reaction on Twitter was “Um…what?”
Haren, coming off a down year in 2012, had posted seven straight 4.0 WAR seasons before that and was owed $15 million for 2013. Marmol is due $10 million next season and is coming off two poor seasons and has a career walk rate of over 6.00 per 9.
Let’s assume that this trade played out as reported and the Cubs backed out at the last minute. The Angels preferred saving $5 million and adding Marmol over Haren to saving $12 million (because Haren is owed a buyout) and not getting Marmol.
Again, um what? What the what?
That is crazy. Again, according to reports, THE CUBS PULLED OUT. The Cubs were getting a number 3 or 4 starter at worst and a number 1 or 2 at best for a $5 million price that included not having to have Carlos Marmol on your team and said no.
So the Angels proposed a stupid trade and the Cubs said no. Baseball was having some fun with us. The Cubs probably figured that the Angels would decline Haren’s option (which they did last night) and could perhaps sign him for less annual value if they waited until Free Agency opens today. They’re gambling that Haren will sign with them for less than $15 million AAV, which is probably around what he’ll sign for.
But that scenario still leaves them paying $10 million to Marmol in 2013 and doesn’t guarantee them Haren.
I can’t see an explanation here that makes any sense other than that the reports we heard we simply wrong. I guess both teams could be stupid, but what are the odds that neither team in this situation was like… “wait a second…?”
Either way, Dan Haren is a Free Agent allowed to sign with any club. The Angels have money to throw at Greinke and the Cubs might get a shot to pay him a little less (maybe).
As teams start negotiating, Haren will be one of the more coveted players after Greinke, Josh Hamilton, Anibal Sanchez, BJ Upton, Michael Bourn, and maybe a couple others. He is entering his age 32 season and is coming off a down season, but if you’re willing to bet on a bounce back, Haren could be one of the best values this offseason.
The Cubs will be in the picture along with the Yankees and Red Sox according to reports. I’m sure other clubs are in the mix, but those are the names that are out there. To me, the Blue Jays, Orioles, Royals, Brewers, and Dodgers should be interested.
As Free Agency gets going, we’ll have full coverage and baseball will hopefully continue to have fun with us.
Stat of the Week: Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA)
For this installment of Stat of the Week, we’re talking about weighted on base average (wOBA), which is OPS on steroids.
OPS is a simple stat used by a lot of people to measure offensive quality, but it is a messy and inefficient way to do that. OPS is On Base Percentage (OBP) PLUS Slugging Percentage (SLG), but OPS captures the flaws in each of those statistics and does nothing to fix them.
OBP is superior to batting average because it includes walks, but it still treats singles, doubles, triples, and homeruns equally. To OBP, all hits are created equal even though they are not. SLG has the opposite problem in that it weighs hits improperly. A triple is not worth 50% more than a double and a homerun is not worth 4x as much as a single. Those numbers, while simple to understand, do not accurately reflect each type of hit’s outcome on run scoring.
So how does wOBA help? Basically, using linear weights (i.e. math), wOBA properly aligns each hit to a proper value. The formula looks like this and is adjusted each year to reflect changes in the game:
wOBA = [(0.69 x BB) + (0.72 x HBP) + (0.88 x 1B) + (1.26 x 2B) + (1.60 x 3B) + (2.08 x HR)] / PA
Try not to memorize the numbers. Try to understand the ratios because the precise values vary year to year. Here’s a calculator with the 2013 constants for you to play along at home.
What you can see here is that a single is worth about 60% of a double as opposed to half. And a double is more than half a homerun. This might seem counterintuitive at first, but if you think about it, it makes sense. A double will drive in as many runs as a triple, so the only difference is how often the batter would score. Heck a double drives in as many as a homerun except for the batter.
wOBA looks a lot like the other slash line numbers, so here’s a scale to judge. .290 is bad, .320 is average, and .400 is great.
wOBA is a great metric because it tells us what we want OPS to tell us, but it does so in a more accurate way that reflects how things really work over the course of a season. If you’re looking for a number to judge a player’s offensive output, this might just be the one.
A couple downsides, which are evident in other stats, are that wOBA doesn’t include any corrections for era or park. We’ll have to wait for wRC+ to include that stuff.
So next time you want to see how a player is performing, try wOBA and you’ll have a lot more information than batting average and even OPS.
The Curious (Free Agent) Case of Josh Hamilton
Free Agency begins in earnest this weekend in MLB and one of the most interesting potential Free Agents is OF Josh Hamilton. He’s had really strong seasons in four of six seasons in the big leagues and is coming off an uneven, but ultimately above average 2012.
And then there are the Hamilton qualifiers. He’s entering Free Agency in his age 32 season (much later than a premier guy ever should) and he has a history of substance abuse and injuries. He has an MVP award and many playoff appearances, but when you throw this whole thing into a blender it turns out a product we’ve never seen before.
Josh Hamilton is the least typical FA we’ve ever seen. Former #1 pick, amazing tools, several good seasons. Old, injury prone, troubled past, terrible plate discipline, terrible middle part of 2012. What do you make of this if you’re an MLB club? What is the market for Hamilton and what should he reasonably ask for? Who takes the plunge?
To start off, Hamilton’s career WAR numbers look like this.
2007: 2.6 (337 PA)
2008: 4.1
2009: 1.4 (365 PA)
2010: 8.4
2011: 4.1
2012: 4.4
So if we’re willing to say that 2009 was the outlier and 2010 is the peak, Hamilton looks like a pretty stead 3.5-5.0 WAR player. That’s a tremendously valuable guy. Not quite perennially MVP, but he should make All-Star teams and hit in the middle of your order. But those numbers obscure underlining problems.
Obviously the substance abuse itself is worrisome, all other things being equal, but what would concern me most is that Hamilton did damage to his body in his early 20s that is going to catch up with him more and more as he ages. By traditional standards, Hamilton is already over his peak age as a baseball player and my guess would be his years of abuse will make that aging curve more problematic.
Additionally, Hamilton has put up some monster numbers, but has a really bad approach at the plate. No one is baseball swung at more pitches outside the strike zone in 2012. Actually, no one swung more period than Hamilton. In a lot of plate appearances I watched this season, Hamilton looked disinterested and swung at everything. If the ball made it to the plate, Hamilton was hacking. It cost his team in the middle and late part of the season as teams learned not to throw him strikes. This showed up in a big way because the Rangers lost the division by one game, so any marginal win would have been worth a lot to the team. If Hamilton could have improved his approach enough to win one more game, the Rangers would have made the playoffs instead of losing in the play in game.
So let’s talk contract details if we only look at what Hamilton has going for him. I’d wager to say an all good news Josh Hamilton is looking at a 7 year, $150 million deal. That pays him about $21 million per season which is right on par with what teams tend to pay per WAR. However, this is a good year to be a Free Agent and a lot of teams would pay handsomely to someone with Hamilton’s tools because the next best option might be BJ Upton. Let’s inflate Hamilton’s deal to 7 years, $170 million.
Now let’s evaluate Hamilton with only what he has wrong with him. He’s 32 and had some really big red flags pop up on the field this year, not to mention the potential aging problems we discussed earlier. You’re aware of his skill, but the other stuff is big. I’d say 3 years, $45 million. You want a shorter deal and fewer dollars, but you recognize he could give you 3 4.0 WAR seasons and are willing to gamble.
So how do those visions come together? Obviously the soft market is a big plus for Hamilton’s value. He doesn’t have Matt Holliday and Ryan Braun to compete with, so the dollars go up. When he’s on, the reward can be very high. MVP high. That pushes the dollars up. But he’s old, even if you are willing to offer a high yearly value, you don’t want to commit that much to a 38 year old Hamilton. Was the terrible July 2012 an outlier or a preview?
My sense is that someone with enough cash and enough guts will push north. 5 years, $100 million seems reasonable. But I’d set the range at 3 years, $50 million to 7 years, $170 million. That’s a wide space to drive a contract through. I can’t remember another Free Agent who could command such a strange distribution of offers.
If I’m a GM, I pass on Hamilton unless the price is in the bottom of the distribution. I only want Hamilton if everyone else undervalues him. I would not pay Josh Hamilton what he should earn. I would only pay him less, because he’s asking me to trust him that he can maintain his level of play for a long term deal.
If Hamilton and his agent walk in and ask for 7 years, my answer is no unless it’s for $80 million or less. 6 years I’ll go for $100 million. 5 years $90 million. 4 years I’ll go $75-80 million. If you picture this, I’m basically saying the more years he wants the less I’ll offer in AAV. I can’t risk $25 million to 2018 Hamilton. I just can’t.
So where does this leave us? Who makes sense for Hamilton?
MLB Trade Rumors postulated that the Rangers will end up winning the bidding after other teams show Hamilton that they won’t pay the big dollars. I think there are a couple teams who intrigue me as possible suitors (with percentages).
White Sox (25%)
Rangers (22%)
Other (11%)
Brewers (10%)
Mariners (10%)
Orioles (5%)
Red Sox (5%)
Yankees (5%)
Phillies (5%)
Blue Jays (2%)
Mainly this is all pretty much the prevailing opinion except for the White Sox. I think they make a ton of sense. There’s room in the OF. Konerko and Dunn are both in the last two years of their deals with Konerko closing in on retirement. Konerko is a FA after 2013, Dunn after 2014. Rios after 2014. Alexei Rameriz is the only position player signed into 2015 with any sort of dollar value (and John Danks is the only pitcher).
Viciedo is a very tradable player if you want to go Hamilton, De Aza, Rios across the outfield, or you could go Viciedo, Hamilton, Rios and find buyers for De Aza. He’s not blocked in 2013 in the OF. If you look to 2014, if Konerko retires, Hamilton can play the OF if he’s able or move to DH with Dunn going to 1B. If Hamilton can wait until 2015 to break down, the DH spot is wide open.
The payroll is there. The spot is there. The need is there. The White Sox are a team in the 80-85 win zone where one big player could make a difference and they might just be crazy enough and gutsy enough to go for it.
I think it’s more likely Hamilton signs in Not Chicago than in Chicago, but if you told me to pick one team, that’s the team to watch. Hamilton is a unique Free Agent, so it’s anyone’s guess.
New English D 