1) Where are Michael Bourn and Kyle Lohse going to sign?

On Bourn, I leaned toward the White Sox in my post a couple weeks ago with the Mets as a close second. The Mets are certainly the team getting the most attention right now, so the odds are probably in their favor. His problem is there aren’t a lot of teams that a) have the money he wants b) need a center fielder c) are willing to lose their first round pick in order to sign him. Only the “a” is negotiable, so it’s going to be tough to predict this.

Lohse, on the other hand, has a lot of teams interested, but no one extremely interested given his price. With Carpenter going down for the season, St. Louis might get involved, but they have a ton of depth and don’t need to commit this kind of money to him. If I had to wager on Lohse, the Angels make a ton of sense to me, but I’m not sure they will spend the cash, so I’ll go with the Brewers from out of nowhere.

2) How bad are the Astros going to be?

I’ve struggled with this one because it could go a couple of ways for me. I want to believe that they actually won’t be as bad as everyone thinks because it is extremely rare for a team like this not to defy expectations even a little bit. But then I look at their roster and don’t see much of anything. Now that Lowrie is gone, I’m not sure I can even find a two win player on the entire team. That can’t bode well. I pegged them at 65 wins for the Early 2013 Projection of the AL West due out on Friday, but since I wrote that I’ve walked them back toward 60 wins. It could get really ugly, but something about them tells me they’re going to be just a touch better than the conventional wisdom. Just a touch!

3) People seem to be in disagreement over who had the better offseason, Washington or Atlanta. Who should I believe?

Glad you asked! The answer to this question is probably Washington. Span, Soriano, and Haren are good additions if healthy and retaining LaRoche while not losing anyone who would have otherwise had a key roster spot seems to take it for me. Atlanta added both Uptons, but they lost Bourn, Prado, and Chipper. The Nats added marginally and lost nothing. The Braves added a lot and lost a lot. I think the Nats are the better team and did better this offseason.

4) So, like, what should we think about all of this PED stuff?

You should think many things, but the important things are these. First, don’t jump to conclusions until we have all of the facts. That doesn’t do you any good. If A-Rod or anyone else is guilty of using banned substances, the investigations and testing procedures will catch them. Association and rumor should not cause you to form a definite opinion. Let everything play out and then decide.

Second, I think we need to accept that PED use will always be an issue in all sports. Athletes are hyper-competitive people with lots of money on the line. Good penalties and testing has stifled drug use, but it’s never going to eliminate it. These players are rule breakers, but I don’t think they are fundamentally different that players who do other questionable things to gain advantages like stealing signs or putting pine tar on their caps. People will always try to get an edge and I don’t like some of the self-righteous attacks from members of the media who seem to pick and choose who a target is. We have system in place to police the game, let it work and relax. Cheaters are bad, but there will always be cheaters.

5) ESPN is arguing over the best division in baseball. Which one is it?

Good question! Assuming they’re talking about 2013, I think we have a three tiered system. Tier 1 is the AL East, AL West, and NL East. Tier 2 is the NL West. Tier 3 is the AL and NL Centrals.

The AL East has five teams capable of .500 or better seasons and four who could probably win 90 or more games. I don’t think it’s the best at the top, but it is the deepest. The AL West has three very good teams (90+ win potential) and two bleh teams (<80 win teams). The NL East is excellent at the top with two of the best teams in the entire league, followed by two average type teams and one really bad one. If you had to make me chose, I’d go with the NL East by a hair.

However, this could easily change as certain teams settle into their over and under performing paradigms for the season. Here at STT, we’ll be rolling out Power Ranking and prediction pieces starting next week and running into March so you’ll get a good sense of what is ahead this year.

Now let’s have five more questions with even shorter answers!

6) Does my team need a proven closer to make the playoffs or be successful in the playoffs?

No.

7) Which player would you rather have, one who hits .250 but walks a lot or one who hits .320 but rarely takes a free pass?

The one who walks. Batting average is overrated, plate discipline is not.

8) Who will be the most obscure player to throw a no-hitter in 2013?

Fun one. I don’t know how obscure he is, but Jon Niese sounds right now that Mets players are allowed to throw no-hitters.

9) Shin Soo Choo had a -17.0 UZR in RF for the Indians in 2012. That can’t be good for his prospects in CF this year in Cincinnati.

Well, it isn’t a good sign, but you can’t put too much stock into one season of defense numbers. He’s been between -2.0 and +6.0 in every other year of his career with a similar pattern for DRS. I would tend to think last year is an outlier and he won’t be that bad again because such a dramatic drop off seems artificial. But if you’re asking him to play a tougher position, it won’t be good. It could actually be quite bad!

10) Not one player who qualified for the batting titled avoided grounding into a double play last season. De Aza did it once and he was closest. Who was the last player to avoid a GIDP all season?

This is incredible. Craig Biggio, 1997. He had 744 PA, .309/.415/.501. Stole 47 bases and had a 9.7 WAR to lead the league. Tell me again why he isn’t in the Hall of Fame?

This actually gets more amazing. From 1998-2012, every player who qualified hit into at least one double play. Biggio didn’t in 1997, but in 1994, three players hit into zero double plays. Otis Nixon, Ray Lankford, and Rickey Henderson. It gets better though. Since 1990, the only other player on this list:

Rob Deer, 1990.

Baseball is amazing.

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