The Morning Edition (April 11, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

From Last Night:

  • Rain delays games and washes out NYY/CLE and MIL/CHC
  • Harper and Desmond back Zimmerman in a 5-2 win over the White Sox
  • Giants put up a 10 spot on the Rockies as Zito puts up a zero
  • Matt Moore keeps the Rangers off the board despite 6 walks in a 2-0 win

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Dan Haren looks to bounce back from a rocky first outing against the White Sox (7p Eastern)
  • Greinke looks to build on his superb first effort against the Friars (10p Eastern)
  • Felix Hernandez is pitching. That’s all you need. (10p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • Is Barry Zito a thing again? (I mean, probably not, but he’s trying!)

I’ve been trying to decide if bullpens are worse this year or not. I’m the king of lecturing on small sample sizes, but it seems like several times a night we’re watching bullpens in full on meltdown mode. Naturally, I went digging to see if my perception is well-founded or not. Here’s what I found (league-wide reliever numbers).

  • 2013: 8.57 K/9, 3.39 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, 4.27 ERA, 4.11 FIP
  • 2012: 8.37 K/9, 3.46 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9, 3.67 ERA, 3.79 FIP
  • March/April 2012: 8.09 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, 0.91 HR/9, 3.74 ERA, 3.95 FIP

That’s a lot of numbers, but let me summarize. Relievers are striking out more batters in 2013 than they did last year and they’re walking fewer too regardless of whether we look at the whole season or just the first month. But when we look to the far right we see a much higher set of ERA and FIP in 2013, pointing us to the culprit: homeruns. Relievers are giving up more homeruns in 2013 than they did last April or last year. This is a small sample, so it may not be predictive of what we will see the rest of the way, but I am right in my suspicion that bullpens are performing worse so far. They’re giving up bombs at a higher rate and it’s translating into worse run prevention by bullpens league-wide.

So it’s not just the Tigers, guys.

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