The Morning Edition (August 1, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Essentially nothing happens at the trading deadline
- The Pirates win their 4th game in 3 days against the Cardinals
- Minor dominates as the Braves crush the Rockies
- Three Astros pitchers I’ve literally never heard of shutout the Orioles
- The Indians walk off on the White Sox
- Beltre and the Rangers walk off on the Angels
- Bailey dominates the Padres
What I’m Watching Today:
- Sale takes on Masterson in Cleveland (12p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey day! (1230p Eastern)
- Someone named Zeke Spruill pitches against Darvish (7p Eastern)
- Cain and Hamels in Philly (7p Eastern)
- The Cardinals try to avoid a 5 game sweep in PIT (7p Eastern)
- Felix faces the Sox (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are you ready for the A-Rod coverage?
With such an incredible day of baseball behind us it is sad to realize that a ridiculous amount of coverage will be focused on the impending attempt of MLB to ban Alex Rodriguez for life. A-Rod. The Yankees. The City of New York. Steroids. I’m surprised ESPN hasn’t melted already. Let’s talk about the games, okay? The Pirates have won four straight against the Cardinals and might grab a fifth today. The Pirates are going to finish over .500 and will likely make the playoffs. Woah.
The Morning Edition (July 30, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Pirates ride a strong start from Liriano over the Cards
- Giambi walks off against the White Sox
- The Rangers get two homeruns in the 9th to come back against the Angels
- Price leads the Rays past the Sox
- CarGo goes 5-5, but the Braves walk off
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lynn and Burnett continue the 5 game set in Pittsburgh in Game 1 (4p Eastern)
- Peavy scheduled to start in Cleveland, but might be traded beforehand (7p Eastern)
- Strasburg and Sanchez (7p Eastern)
- Wheeler faces Eovaldi (7p Eastern)
- Wilson and Holland go in Texas (8p Eastern)
- Latos and Volquez start opposite one of the players for which they were traded (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Did you enjoy bullpen upgrade day?
The Tigers added Veras, the Braves got Downs (good move), and the Rays gambled on Crain (good move). Will the next two days include any big name starters or position players? I’m sure the TradeRumor-Industrial Complex is hoping so. They’ve been tweeting out rumors for so long they will look pretty silly if there aren’t a lot of players moved in the next 36 hours. We’ll have complete coverage of any Tigers moves here and some quick thoughts on the rest of the deals as well. Follow me on Twitter if you’re looking for up to the minute reaction to things that happen in baseball because most of my day is spent thinking about baseball and deciding if I have something interesting enough to share with other people. Usually the answer is no, but sometimes it is yes!
The Morning Edition (July 29, 2013)
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From Last Night:
- Fernandez goes 8, K’s 13, walks none to lead the Fish past Cole
- Ross narrowly out pitches Corbin to win in AZ
- Cingrani and Capuano pitch to a draw before Puig sends everybody home
- Wood shuts down the Giants, who waste a nice start from Lincecum
- Gordon’s 12th inning bomb lifts the Royals
- The Nats unload on the Mets, win 14-1
- Lester leads the Sox to a 5-0 win
- Toronto walks off on Houston
- Jeter homers in his return, Soriano leads the Yanks to victory
What I’m Watching Today:
- David Price tries to stay hot versus the Sox (6p Eastern)
- Weaver faces Garza (7p Eastern)
- Beachy makes his 2013 debut (7p Eastern)
- Jacob Turner goes against the Mets (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are the BioGenesis suspensions coming today?
Reports have the suspensions coming down this week, likely all at once. We’ll see which players are actually affected, which rumors were wrong, and which players have kept their names out of the press. The impact on the pennant race will be real, but likely not substantial because a given player can only have so much impacted over 55 games. Teams will scramble to find replacements, but the impact will be unpredictable. We’ve had months of speculation that was absolutely unnecessary, now we’re actually going to see something happen. Stay tuned.
The Morning Edition (July 28, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Sale goes the distances, allows 1 R, and loses to the Royals (#KillTheWin) as Davis, Coleman, and Holland blank the Sox
- Bourn hits a leadoff HR against Darvish, no one else scores as Masterson out duels Yu
- Nova goes 7, gives up 1 R, but Archer outshines with a CGSO
- The Braves win a close one against the Cards with 2 in the 8th
- 3 Nats HR back Haren over the Mets
What I’m Watching Today:
- Rays try to stay hot behind Moore (1p Eastern)
- Cole and Fernandez hook up in Miami (1p Eastern)
- Corbin welcomes the Padres to Chase (4p Eastern)
- Miller and Medlen on ESPN (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are there going to be any deadline deals?
Despite what Heyman, Rosenthal, Olney, and Morosi are telling you there doesn’t seem to be any traffic on the trade market. We’ve had some low profile deals including Feldman and Nolasco and the Cubs did move Garza, but it doesn’t look like a flurry of deals are coming because the teams that are due to sell aren’t budging. The Jays, Royals, Phils, Angels, and Mariners are out of it but not ready to commit. Once that happens we could have some deals, but the second wild card is keeping a lot of teams in it. Peavy’s probably going to move, but now that we’re five days from the deadline I’m actually willing to talk about trades. Trade speculation is boring, but real trades are interesting and if we’re going to get a few, they’ll be coming soon. It’s important to remember that trades can only have a small impact on a team’s chances because there are only 50-55 games left after the deadline comes. You have to replace a terrible player with a great one to gain more than a win or two.
The Morning Edition (July 22, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Harvey dominates the Phils over 7 innings, allows 3 H and 10 K as Lee struggles
- Masterson flirts with a no-hitter in a 7-1 win over the Twins
- Giants waste a great start from Bumgarner
- Colon drops a CGSO on the Angels
- Wainwright’s 8 strong innings lead the Cards over the Padres
- Felix turns in 6 solid inning as the Mariners thrash the Astros
- Peralta and Alvarez throw gems, but it takes a Gindl walk off in the 13th to finalize the Crew and Fish
- Kershaw throws well, Zimmermann gets rocked in Dodgers win at Nats
- Bailey K’s 12 but the Reds fall to the Bucs
- Rays win…again
What I’m Watching Today:
- Darvish comes to Yankee Stadium (7p Eastern)
- Scherzer and Sale (8p Eastern)
- Garza showcase continues against Skaggs in AZ (930p Eastern)
- Lincecum returns to the mound for the first time since his no-hitter (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Should the Rays scare you?
The answer is yes under certain conditions. First, if you cheer for the Rays, no the Rays should not scare you. Also, if you’re team is wildly out of the race, then you should just enjoy baseball and not sweat the standings. But everyone else should be worried because the Rays are dangerous. They probably won’t sustain a 17-2 pace for the rest of the season but they are putting the East on notice. On May 7th, the Rays were 14-18 and looked like they weren’t going to be able to provide their usually excellent starting pitching. Since then, they are 44-23, which is a 106 win pace. This is a good team that just had their rough stretch early, which is often a nice way to lull your opponents into a false sense of security. I picked the Rays to win the East and haven’t wavered. They are baseball’s 3rd best offense and 11th best pitching staff and have one of baseball’s best managers and easily the best GM. This is a team that should scare you. They have one of the game’s best in Longoria, an excellent super utility guy in Zobrist, the underrated Jennings, the young Myers, and the lightning in a bottle Loney. Not to mention the pitching is back. They Rays are hot and are only going to cool off a little.
The Morning Edition (July 21, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Mariners become the first team to ever score 4+ runs while getting just one hit as they beat the Astros in a game in which Bedard left the game without allowing a hit after 6.1 IP
- Indians waste a solid start by Kluber, fall to the Twins
- Kuroda shuts down the Sox, Yanks edge past Lackey
- Rays stay hot against the Jays
- Greinke and Gio pitch great, but the Nats take it in 10
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lee, Harvey…Oswald? at Citi Field (1p Eastern)
- Kershaw takes on Zimmermann in DC (130p Eastern)
- Felix goes to Houston, strikeout warning in effect (2p Eastern)
- Wainwright goes against the Padres (2p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Who’s regretting the offseason now?
Something I noticed last night was that 11:25pm, the Blue Jays, Royals, and Angels (the 3 AL teams that made big moves this offseason) all have the same number of wins as the Mariners. All at 45. The lesson here is that big moves don’t make a good team. I’m not knocking what the Blue Jays did, but the Angels and Royals made poor moves. To recap, the Angels gave $125 million to Josh Hamilton (which is risky in itself) instead of doing anything to improve their pitching staff and the Royals traded away a great young hitter for a starting pitcher who can’t help the team win because they don’t score any runs. Even if Shields and Myers were a good swap in terms of dollars and value, it certainly didn’t make sense to trade from a weakness to get more pitching when that new pitching was only enough to make you a .500 team. Setting that aside, my point is that the national media latched onto the big moves and called these teams the big winners in the offseason. That was silly. You have to look at the whole picture and the whole picture almost always favors the club that adds complimentary pieces instead of big names. The media chases stories, MLB teams should chase wins. Remember that next time you’re reading offseason winners and losers. Texas “had a terrible offseason” if you listened to the writers. Funny how that works out.
The Morning Edition (July 20, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Brandon Barnes hits for the cycle in a loss to the Mariners
- The Cards shell Marquis, but the Padres make it interesting
- Holland goes 8, but gives up 3 runs in a loss to the O’s
- The Phils pummel the Mets setting Kendrick up for a terrible start that still ends in a win
- The Rays win an 8 HR slugfest with the Jays
- Soriano coughs up a strong start for Strasburg
What I’m Watching Today:
- Hamles versus Wheeler at Citi (1p Eastern)
- Kuroda and Lackey (4p Eastern)
- Burnett takes on Latos (4p Eastern)
- Greinke goes against Gio (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Where does the cycle rank among cool baseball achievements?
Obviously the cycle is awesome for it’s value (at least four times on base) and it’s cool factor (getting each type of hit) but where does it rank among other cool things. No-hitters, perfect games, 4 HR games, CGSO? Let’s take a look at the numbers since 1916:
- Perfect Games: 21
- No-hitters: 204
- Cycles: 240
- Cycles w/a walk: 39
- 4 HR: 14
- 15 or more K: 232
If you asked me I’d most prefer to attend a perfect game, no question, but all of them would be a lot of fun. I’ve been to about 3-4 near no-hitters and a 14 K game.
Jason Marquis, Expectations, and Reality
Should you be interested, I recently wrote a piece over in the Community Research section of Fangraphs breaking down the extreme difference between Jason Marquis’ very solid ERA and his all-time awful FIP. Not only is Marquis over-performing, he’s over-performing at an unprecedented level. I’ve mixed in some historical data and a comparison to a current MLB pitcher who has the same peripheral numbers but a much worse ERA. I hope you find the analysis interesting.
Check out the entire thing over at Fangraphs.
The Morning Edition (July 11, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Wheeler great, Cain awful in a big Mets win
- Another great start for Turner in Miami
- The Angels unload on the Cubs, get a good start from Wilson
- Lee gives up four solo homeruns in a loss to the Nationals
- Toronto tops Cleveland after a wild 9th
- Nova and the Yanks handle the Royals easily
- Twins and Rays play deep into the night, Zobrist walks off
What I’m Watching Today:
- Sale and Sanchez in Detroit (1p Eastern)
- Zimmermann goes against the Phils (7p Eastern)
- Bumgarner (underrated) and Marquis (overrated) face off in Petco (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How should we pick the ASG starter?
There’s been some debate, as there always is regarding ASG stuff, as to who should start for each side. Harvey is the frontrunner in the NL because he is having one of the best seasons and the game is at his home park. It’s not a lock that he should start on merit, but he’s in the conversation and the hometown thing probably pushes him over. I think it’s safe to say Harvey, Wainwright, and Kershaw are the contenders, but depending on what stats you like, you can make a case that any of them are the best starter so far. But should it be about the best starter so far this season? Should it be about the best starter for the last calendar year? The biggest star? The guy who we judge to be the best, because the game does count? It’s not a clear formula. For what it’s worth, Wainwright is schedule to pitch Sunday so he’s probably out. Kershaw and Harvey are both “stop what you’re doing and watch guys” who are having elite years and are top 10 guys since the last ASG. If you’re asking for six outs, they can both get them with the best of them. Is there really a way to separate who should get the start if we don’t have a fixed definition. If Kershaw was far and away having a better season, it might be different, but they’re pretty even, so it just makes sense to go with Harvey…I think. Kershaw’s about to get $200 million. Harvey could have that in his future, but he has more work to do. Let’s go with Harvey.
The Morning Edition (July 8, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Corbin goes 8, strikes out 10 as the Snakes beat the Rockies
- Price goes the distance to beat the White Sox
- The Dodgers get 3 in the 9th to back Kershaw’s 8 strong innings
- The Cubs walk off in 11
- Fernandez looks ordinary in loss to the Cards
- The Nats back Strasburg in a slugfest with the Padres
- Rivera gives up a game winner to Jones and the O’s
What I’m Watching Today:
- Derek Holland comes to Camden (7p Eastern)
- Garza keeps on the trade audition tour against the weak hitting White Sox (8p Eastern)
- Bailey takes the mound for the first time since the no hitter (8p Eastern)
- Lester goes to Seattle to face Felix (10p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey takes his show to SF (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is this really happening again?
It is. Mike Trout is back on the chase after a homerun on Sunday night and now ranks 3rd among all MLB qualifiers with 161 wRC+, trailing only Cabrera and Davis. Mix in his great baserunning and better defense along with playing a more important defensive position and he’s only looking up at Miguel Cabrera on the WAR leaderboard. It’s Cabrera at 5.8 and Trout at 5.1. It’s happening again and I love it. Trout is essentially on pace to match his 2012 campaign, which would put him on some sort of ridiculous career trajectory. Think about this, Miguel Cabrera became the best hitter in the sport in his late 20s. Trout is 21. He’s probably at his peak defensively and on the bases, but he’s going to get better at the plate. What could this guy do? In the last 365 days, Trout (10.5) and Cabrera (9.2) are 1 and 2 in WAR and Trout already has more than 15 WAR in his career. Since 1901, only 2 players have accumulated more WAR through age 21: Mel Ott and Ty Cobb. That’s a list for ya.
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