A Brief Note on Miguel Cabrera and Matt Tuiasosopo
In studying the Tigers offensive statistics so far, I spent some time looking into Jhonny Peralta, whom I have generally defended, but decided that his extremely good numbers so far (3rd in SS WAR) are driven somewhat by a high BABIP which isn’t very interesting.
Then I thought about writing about why Matt Tuiasosopo, the Tigers RH platoon OF, should play a little more but realized there isn’t really any extra PA for him unless you’re willing to bench Victor Martinez, whom I’m not giving up on at all.
Yet in the course of this perusal of Tuiasosopo’s numbers, something very amazing caught my eye. He’s crushing the ball, but that’s not what I mean. There is a belief, one which I share, that a baseball player can do pretty much anything across 60 plate appearances, or a 10 to 14 day stretch. Tuiasosopo has 51 PA at this moment in time. So I’m not shocked that he’s doing well. I’m shocked at how it compares to someone else on the team. First, for reference, he’s Tui’s line:
.366/.490/.561, 189 wRC+ (51 PA, 2 HR, 7 R, 15 RBI, 19.6% BB)
That’s excellent. It’s a small sample, but it’s excellent. He’s 89% better than league average at the plate so far this year. It won’t continue, but that isn’t the point. The point is that Tuiasosopo’s best 51 PA – his small sample peak – still don’t measure up to Miguel Cabrera’s entire season.
Cabrera’s line, despite covering 197 PA or a quarter of a season rather than 10%, is better. Here it is:
.387/.457/.659, 199 wRC+ (197 PA, 11 HR, 34 R, 47 RBI, 10.7% BB)
Cabrera isn’t getting on base at the same rate as Tuiasosopo, but he’s outslugging him by a lot. Cabrera is 99% better than league average at the plate this year. This post is meant to illustrate how awesome that is. Tuiasosopo is crushing the ball over a small sample and he still isn’t on Cabrera’s 200 PA pace (In Cabrera’s last 55 PA, he’s at 220 wRC+ BTW). That’s nuts.
Miguel Cabrera’s wRC+ for the season is better than Babe Ruth’s career wRC+. Now obviously that won’t continue. He won’t be Babe Ruth (although for a second I did actually think about removing the word “obviously”). But right now he’s outhitting everyone. Even great hitters. Even players who are having the best couple weeks of their lives.
Chris Davis is the next closest qualifier to Cabrera with a 182 wRC+. If you drop the threshold from qualified to 50 PA, Tuiasosopo is as close as anyone gets. To find someone with a higher wRC+ than Cabrera, you have to find your way to Matt Adams’ 43 PA.
And just for fun, even though it isn’t a meaningful number, over the last week Miguel Cabrera leads baseball with a 344 wRC+. It’s a small sample, but that’s just silly.
Miguel Cabrera has the 29th best career wRC+ of all time at 150. This is his peak. It has to be. The last three seasons have been his best three and this one looks like it might top them all. We may be watching one of the best dozen or so hitters of all time at his absolute best.
The Morning Edition (May 21, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Mariners blow two saves and the Indians only blow one in a wild one in Cleveland
- Dickey beats Odorizzi north of the border
- Hamels Ks 10 and walks none in a losing effort
- The White Sox get to Lester in Chicago
- Kershaw goes the distance, allows just one run against the Brewers
- Corbin dazzles at Coors with a CG, 10 Ks
What I’m Watching Today:
- Garza makes his season debut against the Pirates (7p Eastern)
- Alex Cobb goes for the Rays in Toronto (7p Eastern)
- Darvish welcomes the A’s to Arlington (8p Eastern)
- Greinke returns to Milwaukee (8p Eastern)
- Wainwright comes to Petco (10p Eastern)
- Strasburg and Cain face off at the bay (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- When do we start to notice Partick Corbin?
As I write this, Patrick Corbin is plowing through the 7th inning in Colorado and hasn’t allowed a run and has surrendered just a single hit (He finished with a CG, 3 H, 1 R, 10 K line). Entering the night, he was 6-0, 53.1 IP, 1.52 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 1.2 WAR and those numbers are going to get better. Granted, this level isn’t sustainable, but he’s pretty good and is throwing a gem in one of the hardest places to pitch. Also, Clayton Kershaw, just stop it. Another CG tonight.
The Strangest Career (and Worst Start) In Tigers History
I came across this tweet yesterday in reference to a major league game played on May 18, 1912 between the Tigers and the Philadelphia A’s. I read it and delivered this response:
And check it out I did. Gary Livacari at SABR has a very informative post about how it came to be that Travers ended up in a major league game. It, I kid you not, involves Ty Cobb assaulting a person who was handicapped with the president of the American League watching.
That aside, this 24 run affair from Travers is incredible. Now 1912 is 101 years ago and the records from that era are a bit spotty. No box score has survived for posterity so I only have some limited information about what happened.
Travers threw an 8 inning CG. He allowed 26 hits and 7 walks and struck out just 1. He allowed 24 runs but only 14 were earned thanks to a terrible defense. His ERA was 15.75. Now that isn’t the worst ERA you’ve ever seen in one appearance, but it’s bad.
Obviously 24 runs is an MLB record and only 19 pitchers have ever allowed 14 ER or more in a single appearance. Only one has allowed more than 26 hits in an appearance. Only 20 have ever walked 7 or more and struck out 1 or fewer.
Just days after his 20th birthday, Travers was put into a major league game he had no business being in and got toasted big time. We often see a reliever or a starter have a very short outing that results in a 27.00 ERA or something, but they get outs in their next appearance and the numbers balance out. But Travers never got the chance and his only major league appearance stands as a preposterously awful affair.
Granted, I’d take one MLB appearance no matter how terrible over no MLB appearances, so I don’t feel too bad. It’s just pretty remarkable that a situation unfolded in which a major league pitcher was allowed to give up 24 runs in an outing and that remains his only trip to a big league mound.
The Morning Edition (May 20, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chapman gives up 2 HR in the 9th to Katz and Galvis and blows it in Philly
- Moore twirls 7 innings of 1 run ball, gets help from a Joyce homerun that was reviewed for 9 minutes to win 3-1
- Locke and Harrell duel to a 1-0 Pirates victory
- Ozuna backs Nolasco’s 11 Ks to take one from Arizona
- The Indians rough up Felix, Masterson Ks 11 in 7 innings for a 6-0 win
What I’m Watching Today:
- Under the radar Iwakuma tries to salvage one in Cleveland (12p Eastern)
- Odorizzi makes his Rays debut against Dickey and the Jays (1p Eastern)
- Cueto returns versus the Mets (7p Eastern)
- Lester faces the White Sox (8p Eastern)
- Kershaw comes to Milwaukee after dominating his last time out (8p Eastern)
- Corbin on the mound in Colorado (830p Eastern)
- Shelby Miller heads to Petco (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will you divide up your MLB viewing today?
The Marlins are just above the Tigers 43-119 pace from 2003 and are currently tracking toward 44 wins. Their team slash line is an incredible .221/.284/.317. In 2012, four players hit between .220 and .230 and slugged between .310 and .320. Here’s the list: Peter Bourjos (195 PA), Anthony Gose (189 PA), Jose Lobaton (197 PA), and Carlos Triunfel (24 PA). Put it this way, the Marlins as a team are hitting like four players who couldn’t get 200 PA on another team. The average Miami Marlin couldn’t even platoon in the majors. The 2013 Marlins are worse than Don Kelly’s career line, who has made a career being a defense first 13th man who can play many positions. The Marlins are fielding a team that is below replacement level (-1.6 WAR). That’s happening.
How Was The Game? (May 19, 2013)
Um…ridiculous?
Rangers 11, Tigers 8
Entering the bottom of the 5th inning, the Tigers lead the Rangers 4-1 behind two Miguel Cabrera (.387/.457/.659, 1998 wRC+, 2.8 WAR) homeruns and solid pitching from Doug Fister (5-2, 54.2 IP, 3.62 ERA, 2.74 FIP, 1.7 WAR). Then things just went indiscriminately crazy. I mean it. The Rangers got 4. The Tigers got 3. The Rangers got 4. That was three consecutive half innings. It was 9-7 at that point. Then 11-7, then 11-8 on Cabrera’s third homer. I don’t think it’s necessary to rehash exactly how it happened at each interval other than to say that the offense did its job, but the pitching and defense struggled in different ways at different times. I’m really not even sure if the Tigers were giving the game away or the Rangers were trying to give the game away. There were many runs and Miguel Cabrera did something that has happened just a couple times in history. He hit 3 HR in a game and lost…for a second time. The Tigers drop to 23-19 after dropping 3 of 4 from Texas this weekend after Verlander, Sanchez, and Fister all struggled. The Rangers are a good team and you’d be plenty happy with a split on the road and that just escaped their grasp. The Tigers will get Monday off to reset the bullpen and will turn to Max Scherzer (5-0, 54.1 IP, 3.98 ERA, 2.44 FIP, 1.9 WAR) to get the team on track Tuesday in Cleveland.
The Moment: Cabrera homers…three times.
The Morning Edition (May 19, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Jordan Zimmermann gives up 1 ER in 8 innings…and loses…to the Padres
- Gattis and Simmons go back to back to back Medlen in his duel with Capuano
- Parra hits a leadoff homer and then McCarthy delivers a CGSO as the Dbacks beat the Fish 1-0
- Tampa Bay gets 6 runs in the 9th to beat the Orioles 10-6
- The Indians win on a walk off fielder’s choice (what?!)
What I’m Watching Today:
- Felix faces Masterson in Cleveland (1p Eastern)
- Dickey and CC try to regain Cy Young creds (1p Eastern)
- Matt Moore looks to complete the sweep in Baltimore (130p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are McCarthy’s peripherals finally lining up with the results?
I made a comment on Twitter last night that Carlos Gomez was impressively leading the league in WAR (2.7) and was 9th in the league in wRC+ (170) despite just a 3.9% walk rate. Since I wrote that, those numbers have fluctuated just a bit, but the idea holds up. So I was curious, who had the best low walk season in the last ten years? Since 2004, the best qualifying seasons for players who walked 5.0% of the time or less are:
5. Freddy Sanchez 2006 – 4.9% BB, 4.5 WAR
4. Brandon Phillips 2007 – 4.7% BB, 4.7 WAR
3. Carl Crawford 2005 – 3.9% BB, 4.8 WAR
2. Ichiro 2009 – 4.7% BB, 5.1 WAR
1. Adrian Beltre 2011 – 4.8% BB, 5.3 WAR
Each of those seasons feature a strong defensive effort and low K%, but if you’re curious the best <5% BB season since 2004 with a negative UZR belongs to Adam Jones (2012) who walked 4.8% of the time and posted a 4.4 WAR (7th overall). Also, apparently walking didn’t used to be as cool as it is today, because I then queried a search back to 1980 and Beltre’s 2011 season turned up to be 15th in the last 34 years. Kirby Puckett’s 1988 reigns with 3.9% BB and 7.1 WAR. I’m serious. He hit .356/.375/.545. That’s crazy. Puckett’s 1988 is the best <5.0% BB season, not just since 1980, but also since 1932.
How Was The Game? (May 18, 2013)
Just an ugly one.
Rangers 7, Tigers 2
If I was asked to describe what went wrong today, I’d probably mumble “defense” and walk away angry. The Tigers made 2 errors, allowed a run scoring passed ball, lost a ball in the lights for a triple, and probably did something else I’m forgetting to churn out 7 runs for the opposing team. Anibal Sanchez (4-4, 55.1 IP, 2.77 ERA, 1.79 FIP, 2.6 WAR) wasn’t that sharp, but his 2.2 innings, 9 hits, 6 runs (5 ER), 2 BB, 2 K line belies his true effort. He wasn’t good, but he wasn’t that bad. The offense didn’t really deliver, but those kinds of nights are easier to shake off than ones that were wrought with miscues on defense. Yet the 23-18 Tigers will still head into tomorrow’s game with a chance to split a 4 games series on the road against one of the best teams in the league and will send Doug Fister (5-1, 50 IP, 3.06 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 1.5 WAR) to the mound on Sunday Night Baseball to do so. If you haven’t already, I’d also recommend you check out my piece from Saturday on Rick Porcello, whom I argue is on his way to a breakout year.
The Moment: Torii Hunter strikes out, but then singles after the HP umpire rules it a foul ball.
Rick Porcello is Breaking Out (You Heard Me)
Now the Rick Porcello skeptic is going to look at his 5.92 ERA and just ignore this post in favor of his or her preconceptions about the Tigers right-hander, but I urge you to read on. Rick Porcello is about to have his breakout season. Really.
First, let’s point out that his start on April 20th against the Angels was a mess. 0.2 innings and 9 runs. But it certainly wasn’t all his fault, it was only somewhat his fault. There were infield singles galore in that inning and he should have gotten out of it with only a run or two to his name. I don’t mean to deflect the blame, but merely want to to point out that type of strange inning can happen to anyone and that he induced 7 groundballs in 2/3 of an inning. Normally, that should get you a lot of outs. If we remove that start from his line this year, he has a 3.85 ERA. Again, I’m not trying to just wish it away – it happened – but I do want to point out that other than that one inning, he’s having a very solid season for back end starter even by a conventional, inch deep approach to analyzing baseball.
But let’s also turn to the peripheral numbers. Rick Porcello is striking out 6.39 batters per 9 so far in 2013 and that is the highest number of his career. In his first two years he was about 4.7 K/9. In 2011-2012 he was 5.0-5.5 K/9. He’s added nearly an entire strikeout per 9 this season, which is always a good thing.
He’s also walking fewer batters than ever. In his first season he walked 2.74 per 9 and in his last three he’s been around 2.1-2.3 BB/9. This year, he’s walking 1.89 batters per 9 inning. Look at how his strikeout rate and walk rate are bowing apart on the graph. That is a sign of improvement.
He’s striking out more hitters and walking fewer. In other words, he’s getting better at two of the aspects of the game a pitcher can truly control. But there’s more.
Rick Porcello’s groundball rate is rising too. In his rookie season he got 54.2% GB, but that number dropped to 50.3% before rising each of the last three seasons into this year’s career high 54.9% groundball rate. Not bad. More groundballs are always better than more flyballs.
And then there are the homeruns. Typically Porcello has allowed 0.8 to 1.0 HR/9, but this year that number is 1.42. Now that may sound worse, but it’s actually good. The reason being that most people consider HR to Flyball rate to be inherently driven by luck and that over a large enough sample, every pitcher regresses toward giving up about 1 HR per every 10 fly balls. Porcello has generally been in that range for his entire career. Until this season. This season that rate is 1 in 5. Again, this is a good thing because we would expect that number to come down toward his career norm, thus shrinking his HR rate as the season goes on. In other words, Porcello has given up more runs that he should have this year because he’s been unlucky with flyballs and that luck will change.
Put this together and we have this story: Rick Porcello is striking out more batters than ever, walking fewer batters than ever, getting more groundballs than ever, and is allowing more homeruns per flyball than we would generally expect. All of this points toward the 24 year old having his best season to date.
I’m buying it. Everything we know about what makes pitchers successful tells us to look at strikeouts, walks, and homeruns and the percentage of balls in play he allows on the ground versus in the air. All of those numbers – all of them – are trending in the right direction for Rick Porcello. Lots of people talked about his great spring and the trashed it when he struggled a bit early, but here were are on May 18th and Porcello is starting to make himself look like a very good starter.
Fangraphs furnishes a metric called xFIP which gives us an expected ERA for a starting pitcher based on his strikeouts and walks plus a regressed version of their HR rate adjusted for park effects and league average. Rick Porcello is posting a career best 3.42 xFIP right now. That xFIP is 27th best in baseball among pitchers with 30 IP or more. He’s tied with Jordan Zimmermann (who has a 1.69 ERA) and is getting ace-like attention this season.
I’m not trying to make the case that Porcello is a #1 starter or even a #2, but rather that Rick Porcello is poised for a breakout season and that you should take notice. Heck, look at how his xFIP has declined in every season of his career. He’s often a whipping boy for fairweather fans and idiot radio hosts, but Rick Porcello has always been a durable starter and now he’s having his best season yet.
And he’s still just 24.
The Nine Best Tigers Hitters of the Last Decade
The following post is an installment in our weekly The Nine series and pertains solely to the site’s namesake, the Tigers. The question it seeks to answer is who are the best Tigers hitters of the last decade. It doesn’t answer who the best players are, but simply their offense performance. Defense and baserunning are not considered and the minimum PA threshold has been set at 600 PA. This isn’t a counting list that you can conquer by playing 10 seasons reasonably well. As long as you have had at least one full season of plate appearances as a Tiger from 2004 to now, you are eligible. The list is based on the best single offensive catch all metric, Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) and does not control for position, sorry Pudge.
9. Andy Dirks (705 PA, 113 wRC+)
It might not seem like it, but across several seasons, Dirks has gathered more than one full season of PA and has performed very well at the plate. It doesn’t stand out, but his .289/.339/.447 career line is solid and he makes up for the lower walk rate with a low strikeout rate. He doesn’t over swing and it yields good results. In just over a full season of PA, he has 19 HR, 105 R, 76 RBI, and 10 SB. Put that together and you have a very nice player by any measure.
8. Victor Martinez (761 PA, 114 wRC+)
Martinez’s numbers are slightly depressed off a slow start to 2013, but his 2011 season was very strong and his career .304/.356/.433 line as a Tiger is quite good. His strikeout rate is under 10% and he’s done a nice job of driving in the batters who get on base ahead of him.
7. Rondell White (898 PA, 114 wRC+)
Does that name ring a bell? White played two seasons in Detroit (04-05) and was actually a pretty decent hitter other than having a low walk rate. He hit .290/.342/.470 as a Tiger and hit 31 HR wearing the Old English D. He wasn’t much in the field or on the bases, but his performance at the plate wasn’t anything at which to sneeze.
6. Curtis Granderson (2896 PA, 115 wRC+)
Granderson spend time in Detroit from 2004-2009 and gave the Tigers some solid offense in addition to his once great defensive chops. His .272/.344/.484 line puts him 6th on this list and 4th among players with more than 1000 PA and his 102 HR ranks fourth among Tigers hitters since 2004.
5. Chris Shelton (899 PA, 117 wRC+)
Yup, that Chris Shelton. He crushed the first two months of 2006 to get himself on this list and he didn’t hang around too long after he started coming back to Earth, so he ended his Tigers tenure with a .281/.348/.477 line with 35 HR. His peak was short, but for six weeks in 2006, Big Red was the man.
4. Carlos Guillen (3384 PA, 120 wRC+)
Guillen was often underrated in his time and often injured in his time as well. When he was on the field, he was a very good offensive player, providing a .297/.366/.476 line from 2004-2011 that included 95 HR as a Tiger. He walked more than league average and struckout far less to go along with his high average and solid power. Man, if only he wasn’t made of a substance more fragile than glass. He played just two seasons of 150+ games in his 8 seasons.
3. Magglio Ordonez (3531 PA, 125 wRC+)
Ordonez’s injuries and dwindling power at the end belie his overall contribution to the Tigers when he was healthy during his stint with the Tigers from 2005-2011. His .312/.373/.476 line was excellent along with 107 HR and a very low strikeout rate (11.9%). He also provided that amazing near MVP season in 2007 in which he hit .363/.434/.595 line good for 170 wRC+. Plus, you know, the homerun in the 2006 ALCS.
2. Prince Fielder (873 PA, 152 wRC+)
Prince is the newest Tiger on this list having just joined the team at the beginning of last season, but his offensive mark has already been made. He’s hit .305/.410/.526 since joining the team and has been near the top of the league in most offensive categories including his 39 HR and walk rate over 13%.
1. Miguel Cabrera (3590 PA, 159 wRC+)
Well, yeah. As a Tiger Cabrera has hit .326/.403/.580 with 191 HR and a 11.3% walk rate. I’m not sure what needs to be said other than that it is entirely possible he is getting better and could pull away from the pack as the next couple of years go on. This will be his 6th season as a Tiger. Let’s break it down list this:
2008-2010: .314/.388/.567, 109 HR, 147 wRC+ in 2017 PA
2011-2013: .341/.423/.597, 82 HR, 173 wRC+ in 1573 PA
Good luck anyone trying to climb to the top of this list. And to AL pitchers.
The Morning Edition (May 18, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Upton slams the Braves past the Dodgers
- Goldschmidt’s 2 bombs back Cahill’s 8 inning gem
- Kuroda blanks the Jays over 8, wins 5-0
- Hellickson gives up 8 runs in 7.2 innings…and gets a win in a 12-10 affair over the O’s
- Kipnis walks off in extras over the M’s
- Phillies bullpen tries to spoil a nice outing by Lee, but the offense bails them out against the Reds
- Harvey twirls 7.2 strong innings and drives in the winning run against the Cubs
What I’m Watching Today:
- Quietly strong Zach McAllister faces the Mariners in an attempt to pad his stats (1p Eastern)
- Burnett gets the Astros at home, watch for Ks (7p Eastern)
- McCarthy looks to follow his strong outing against the Marlins 7p Eastern)
- Zimmermann faces the Padres at Petco (830p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How do people still take pitcher wins seriously after Hellickson gave up 8 runs and still earned one on Friday?
If I gave you 5 guesses as to who baseball’s best hitter is so far (as of 11:21pm Friday night), would you get it? Miguel Cabrera might be your guess and that’s close, but he’s percentage points behind the leader. Maybe Upton? Or Longoria? Or Choo? All good guesses, but it’s actually Paul Goldschmidt. The Dbacks slugging first baseman has a nice season and a half to his name in the big leagues, but he’s taken a step forward so far this season. His plate discipline is improving and his power is better, while also buoyed by a little good luck. Right now his 185 wRC+ is a fraction of a point ahead of Cabrera and his .338/.421/.656 line is a thing of beauty.
New English D 