The Morning Edition (June 11, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Red Sox and Rays enter into Game of the Year territory (see below)
- Bailey rolls over the Cubs with 8 innings, 0 ER
- A fog delay at US Cellular
- Another Kershaw-y Kershaw start
What I’m Watching Today:
- Gerrit Cole makes his MLB debut against the Giants (7p Eastern)
- Lester starts after Monday’s marathon game (7p Eastern)
- Turner tries to stay hot in Miami (7p Eastern)
- Wacha against the Mets (7p Eastern)
- CC and Colon in Oakland, I’ll leave the jokes to you (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Can you believe that game in Tampa last night?
So here’s what happened, briefly. Alex Cobb started and got shelled. 6 run first. But the Rays clawed back. 2 in the first and 1 in each of the 3rd, 4th, 7th, and 8th. 6-6. In the 10th, the Sox got two to take the lead, then Andrew Bailey had the meltdown to end all meltdowns and sent it hurling forward deeper into the night. It ended, finally, when Nava singled home Victorino in the 14th and the Sox added another for good measure. Just for reference, one of the more incredible win expectancy graphs you will ever see:
How Was The Game? (June 10, 2013)
A little unfair to Fister.
Royals 3, Tigers 2
In the interest of tidy box scores, both clubs limited their scoring to the 3rd inning today as Miguel Cabrera delivered a 2 run HR in the top of the inning and the Tigers defense helped the Royals respond with 3 in the bottom half. Doug Fister (5-4, 85 IP, 3.28 ERA, 2.60 FIP, 2.8 WAR) was characteristically fantastic and only allowed runs in one inning that featured 2 infield hits, a regular hit, and a triple that should have been kept to a single if not for a poor play by Garcia and Hunter. Fister would end the day with a CG, 3 run affair with 0 walks and 3 K in the losing effort that also pushed his GB rate to 57.5% which is second best among MLB starters.
After four straight wins, it’s hard to complain, but Doug Fister deserves better and I would like to request that the Tigers spread their poor offensive games around and don’t use them all up with Fister on the mound. Max Scherzer (8-0, 83.1 IP, 3.24 ERA, 2.36 FIP, 2.9 WAR) will take the hill tomorrow looking to even the series and improve his own All-Star and Cy Young profile.
The Moment: After a strike-em-out-throw-em-out to end the 4th inning, all 9 Tigers thought there were only two outs and didn’t leave the field.
Understanding the Tigers Bullpen
If you follow me on Twitter or have spent a lot of time on this site (here, also here) you know that I’m not a fan of how most managers use their bullpens. Primarily, I think “saves” are worthless and utilizing a one inning-saves only closer, even if that closer is excellent, is not the right way to use your bullpen.
This idea is simple and it’s explained in the links above, but I’ll summarize. You should use your best relievers when the game is most on the line. That does not always happen in the 9th inning. Your relief ace should pitch when he is needed, not when he can accumulate saves. The 9th inning is not “a different animal” that requires special skills. Many pitchers have moved into the 9th inning role without any problem and a high number of saves does not mean you have pitched well.
In general, I’m a fan of rethinking bullpen usage so that the best pitchers pitch in key situations. I’ve routinely mentioned that Jose Valverde is not a good MLB reliever anymore, but even if he was, the Tigers are using him incorrectly. Let’s explore.
Fangraphs furnishes a statistic that measure the average leverage index each pitcher enters the game during. Leverage index measures how much the game is “on the line” at every moment, so this captures exactly what we’re after. On average, how critical is the moment that Leyland brings in each reliever:
Obvious, some of these guys have fewer appearance than others, but you’ll note that Phil Coke, Jose Valverde, and Darin Downs have been called on during the most critical moments with Joaquin Benoit coming in 4th among pitchers who have a decent chunk of innings. What you should also notice is that Drew Smyly is effectively dead last because Reed and Porcello have hardly pitched at all.
Yet it’s Benoit and Smyly who are actually the team’s best relievers. If we look at Win Probability Added (WPA) which measures the the change in win expectancy from a pitcher’s entry into the game until their removal, Smyly and Benoit are the best the Tigers have:
And if you’d rather consider WPA in conjunction with LI:
What we see here is that Smyly and Benoit are the pitchers who are performing the best out of the Tigers bullpen but they aren’t getting place in the high leverage situations. Leyland is going to Coke, Valverde, and Downs more than Benoit and Smyly when the game is on the line even though those guys are worse.
We can look to other numbers like FIP and ERA, among Tigers relievers with more than 8 IP, Smyly and Benoit reign:
Put very clearly, Smyly (who is 8th in MLB in reliever WAR) and Benoit are the Tigers best two relievers by pretty much every objective measure, yet they are not getting the call when the games count most. Until yesterday (June 9th), Smyly had pitched to just 15 batters in the previous 2 weeks despite being the team’s best reliever. That just isn’t acceptable.
The way to fix this is simple. First, managers need to stop valuing “proven closers” and should not be afraid to go to closer by committee. Jose Valverde leads the Tigers in “Saves,” but by every other measure, he’s nowhere close to the team’s best pitcher. Second, managers need to accept that the most important time in the game is not always the 9th inning and should bring in their best reliever to face the other team’s best hitters or when the other team is threatening. If you go to your best guy with the bases empty against the 6-7-8 hitters, you’re wasting them.
The flaws were on display in Baltimore (5/31) when Jose Valverde came into the game in the 9th inning up by 2 against the Orioles’ best hitters and blew the game, but on the next day, Leyland went to Smyly for two innings up by 7 runs. The opposite should have happened. Valverde should not pitch when the game is on the line and Smyly shouldn’t pitch in garbage time. You need to align your best relievers with the most important moments in the game.
Now certainly you can’t see the future and I won’t begrudge someone for going to Smyly in a tight spot only to find the game gets tighter in a future inning. But when Leyland doesn’t use Smyly for days at a time and then gets him work during a blowout, it’s maddening.
People complain about the Tigers’ bullpen, but it’s actually 7th in MLB in WAR, 9th in FIP, and 4th in K/9. It’s not elite, but it’s reasonably good. The problem is not the individual pitchers but rather how they are used. If Leyland was willing to think differently and go to his best guys in the tightest spots, the Tigers wouldn’t have these late inning issues.
The Tigers have far and away the league’s best staff and one of the best couple of offenses. Their only weaknesses are defense and the bullpen, but the bullpen isn’t really a weakness, it’s an inefficiency. And it’s one that can be fixed.
The Morning Edition (June 10, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Felix out duels Phelps, but the Yanks score on the M’s pen to win 2-1
- Puig has 3 hits, but the Braves pound the Dodgers 8-1
- EJax is strong as the Cubs beat the Bucs
- Lohse goes 8 strong as the Brewers beat the Phils
- The O’s gets 6 HR to outslug the Rays
- Zimmermann goes 7 as the Nats blank the Twins
What I’m Watching Today:
- Silent ace Alex Cobb faces the Red Sox (7p Eastern)
- Kershaw goes against the Dbacks (10p Eastern)
- Iwakuma gets the Astros at Safeco (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How’s everyone enjoying Yasiel Puig?
I haven’t written much about Puig because he’s been playing on the coast and I usually write this post before games end out west. So far, he’s hitting .464/.483/.964, good for 307 wRC+. That’s pretty good by any measure, even if it is just 29 PA. Puig certainly won’t hit like this for the whole season, but he’s impressing early and fans are loving him. It’s almost as if the Dodgers shouldn’t have traded for Crawford and/or extended Andre Ethier into their declines. It will be interesting to see what they do once everyone gets healthy, but such a scenario doesn’t look good for Ethier who has been worth 0.1 WAR in 228 PA. For perspective, that’s less than Zach Greinke has in 16 PA. Zach Greinke, the pitcher.
How Was The Game? (June 9, 2013)
A nice, clean sweep.
Tigers 4, Indians 1
It’s rare that everything goes right during a baseball game, but that seemed to happen today. Jose Alvarez (1-0, 6 IP, 1.50 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 0.1 WAR) was stellar in his MLB debut, delivering 6 innings of 3 hit, 1 run, 1 walk, and 7 strikeout baseball in place of Anibal Sanchez and left the game with the score tied 1-1 thanks to an Avila sac fly and a Raburn homerun. In the bottom of the 6th inning, as Alvarez was basking in his debut, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder got themselves on base ahead of the imposing Don Kelly who turned on a pitch low and in and sent it into the seats to give the Tigers a 4-1 lead. And then something even more amazing happened. Jim Leyland actually called on his best relievers and brought Smyly into the game for 2 innings before turning it over to Benoit who added a scoreless 9th. The win completes the sweep and moves the Tigers 5.5 games ahead in the AL Central thanks to a 5-1 homestand. They’ll hop a plane to KC and will have Doug Fister (5-3, 77 IP, 3.27 ERA, 2.63 FIP, 2.4 WAR) on the mound for game one of the series on Monday.
The Moment: Don Kelly breaks the tie with a 3 run homer in the 6th.
The Morning Edition (June 9, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Marlins win a 20 inning marathon against the Mets
- Darvish and Buehrle both go 7, but it takes 18 for the Jays to beat the Rangers
- Danks goes 8 as the Sox win with 3 in the 8th over the A’s
- Pettitte wins #250 against the Mariners
- Gausman gets shelled, again
- Twins beat the Nats in 11
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zimmermann faces the Twins (1p Eastern)
- Moore tries to shake off his last outing against the O’s (130p Eastern)
- The still underappreciated Felix Hernandez gets the Yankees (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- So the Marlins and Mets, eh?
Let’s review. The Mets and Marlins were tied 1-1 after 9 innings of baseball. At this point, Harvey and Fernandez had both been strong and the bullpens had combined for 5 scoreless innings. There were still 11 innings left. In the innings that followed two pitchers would each throw more than both team’s starters! Slowey went 7 in relief, allowing 8 hits, 0 BB, and 8 K. Marcum went 8, allowing 5 hits and a run with 0 BB and 8 K. That’s right, the Mets walked 2 batters in 20 innings and lost. Only twice in MLB history has a team lost a game in which they walked 2 or fewer hitters in 18 or more innings. Perhaps even more remarkable, this was the 2nd 15+ inning game between the clubs this year starter by Fernandez and Harvey.
How Was The Game? (June 8, 2013)
Another stellar day.
Tigers 6, Indians 4
The Tigers sent Rick Porcello (3-3, 63 IP, 4.86 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 1.0 WAR) to the hill in the middle game of the series with the Indians today and things went exactly according to plan. Porcello continued to impress after allowing hits to the first two batters of the game, he allowed just 3 more baserunners before he left the game after 6 innings, 3 hits, 2 runs (1 earned), 2 BB, and 7 K. With another great start under his belt Porcello continues to compare himself nicely to the previous versions of himself and the rest of the league, as he now ranks 8th in xFIP with 2.97, which is better than any qualifying pitcher from 2012.
The offense also performed well, delivering 4 runs in the 2nd, mostly on a Prince Fielder double, and 2 in the 3rd, while keeping pressure on the Indians pitchers all game long. Ryan Raburn also had fun with the Tigers bullpen by hitting a 2 run HR to make it a 2 run game in the 7th. The win gives the Tigers the series, a 34-26 record, and a 4.5 game lead in the AL Central heading into Sunday’s finale looking to sweep behind Jose Alvarez (5-4, 74.1 IP, 2.42 ERA, 2.50 FIP at AAA Toledo) who will make his MLB debut in place of Anibal Sanchez (6-5, 78 IP, 2.65 ERA, 1.79 FIP, 3.4 WAR), who hopes to miss just one start with shoulder stiffness.
The Moment: Fielder clears the bases in the 2nd.
The Nine Best Names in MLB
Entering today (June 8th, 2013), 1027 individuals have made an appearance in a major league game this season. This ranges from single AB to 80+ innings on the mound. Today, I’d like to evaluate the coolness or baseballness of their names. The rules are simple. To be eligible, you have to have played in an MLB game this year. That means Stryker Trahan (minors) and Skye Bolt (college) aren’t on the list. Injured and retired players don’t count. Here is a complete list of eligible players (Baseball Names).
This list is subjective and entirely my own, but it’s right.
9. Kyle Blanks (Padres)
8. Dexter Fowler (Rockies)
7. Addison Reed (White Sox)
6. Clete Thomas (Twins)
Blanks, Fowler, and Reed made the list over a lot of good candidates, but their names just sound like names you’d hear on a baseball field. Clete Thomas belongs for obvious reasons. His first name (technically his middle name) is a piece of baseball equipment.
5. Homer Bailey (Reds)
4. Josh Outman (Rockies)
Homer Bailey has the ironic distinction of having his name be the opposite of what he hopes to accomplish on the mound, while Josh Outman’s last name is exactly what he’s going for – outs man.
3. Chase Utley (Phillies)
Chase Utley probably doesn’t need any introduction. Chase and Utley would probably get you on the list individually, but Chase Utley together is a lock.
2. Asdrubal Cabrera (Indians)
Cabrera is one of baseball’s most bland names, except when your first name sounds like a type of layered pastry.
1. Buster Posey (Giants)
Buster and Posey, like Chase and Utley, are probably good enough to make the list carrying a “John” or “Smith,” but together Buster Posey just screams baseball.
What names did we leave out that you like? Where you would put Trahan and Bolt on this list? Let us know in the comments or on Twitter.
The Morning Edition (June 8, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Tropical Storm Andrea washes out 3 games and soaks the offices of New English D with 5 inches of rain
- Wainwright cruises as the Cards thump the Reds
- Jennings’ 2 run HR lifts the Rays over the O’s
- Liriano walks 5, but goes 7 to beat the Cubs 2-0
What I’m Watching Today:
- Darvish goes north to play the Jays (1p Eastern)
- Fernandez and Harvey (1p Eastern)
- Buchholz goes against the Angels (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Who is this week’s surprising leaderboard climber?
That would be Michael Cuddyer. All of a sudden, he’s 6th in MLB in wRC+ with 161, trailing just Davis, Cabrera, Tulowitzki, Goldschmidt, and CarGo. Take your time, read that list. What do you see? Three Colorado Rockies. They have 3 of the top 6 hitters in baseball and 4 of the top 28 (Fowler), but then everyone else is below MLB average and they’re 10th overall with 101 wRC+ as a club. I had them as one of the worst teams in baseball coming in to the season, but their pitching is performing better than I expected, but the key is the health of their big hitters. They don’t have the depth to fill in, but Tulo and CarGo are as good as almost any pair in the game when they are healthy.
How Was The Game? (June 7, 2013)
Full of good signs.
Tigers 7, Indians 5
Up 2.5 in the Central and looking to burn the candle at both ends, the Tigers welcomed the Indians to Comerica Park hoping to pad their lead. They did so with a solid outing from Justin Verlander (8-4, 80 IP, 3.71 ERA, 2.57 FIP, 2.8 WAR) who went 7 innings, only allowing 3 runs that all came in the same inning that featured two infield hits and a botched flyball. The stat lines haven’t looked VERLANDERISH, but he does look to be past the three or four start run of iffy command and bad results. Both Hunter and Martinez both had 3 hit games and the only Tigers not to register a hit were Cabrera and Fielder. Martinez’s 3 hits featured one of each variety of which he is capable – a single, double, and homerun – indicating that his luck is starting to turn. Jose Valverde did his best to spoil it, but he was only able to turn a four run lead into a 2 run victory after two 9th inning homers and a single. The win moves the Tigers to 33-26 and gives them a shot to win the set with Cleveland tomorrow afternoon behind breakout pitcher Rick Porcello (2-3, 57 IP, 5.21 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 0.8 WAR). Of note, below is a list of pitchers with lower xFIPs than Porcello (min. 50 IP):
- Sanchez, 2.41
- Hernandez, 2.50
- Darvish, 2.54
- Wainwright, 2.54
- Scherzer, 2.80
- Cobb, 2.91
- Harvey, 2.92
- Porcello, 3.03
The Moment: Verlander attempts to avoid the Handshake of Doom by trying to enter the dugout via the auxiliary entrance.
New English D 