Appointment Television: Baseball’s Must Watch Starting Pitchers (September 2013 Update)
In May, I rolled out our list of Appointment Television starting pitchers, or pitchers who were worth planning your baseball viewing (and life) schedule around. Today, as I did in June, July, and August I’d like to update that list and talk about the changes. The original list can be found here, which also includes a little more detail on the origin of the project. Recall that the order is tiered into stable and non stable (italics), but each ranking is meaningless.
Here is the gist from the original:
The methodology is simple but also subjective. To be classified as Appointment TV you have to have a high likelihood of pitching a gem. There is no set definition of gem or likelihood, but the idea is that to make this list, you have to be likely enough to throw a game worth clearing your schedule for. I think a number of pitchers qualify. Most are high strikeout guys, but that isn’t a requirement. If you are good enough to dominate on a semi-regular basis you’re in. If on your day to pitch, I make sure I’m aware of the start time so that I can check in, you’re Appointment TV.
This is a rolling list and pitchers will be added and subtracted throughout the season and it will be updated as necessary. There is no order other than that pitchers lower on the list in italics are recent additions, so if you’re wondering if Jordan Zimmermann really qualifies, know that he’s earned his way onto the list in his last few starts. Remember, this is a list of pitchers who on this date are can’t miss TV. These are not necessarily the best pitchers and plenty of good pitchers aren’t on the list.
Appointment Television Starting Pitchers:
- Justin Verlander
- Adam Wainwright
- Clayton Kershaw
- Felix Hernandez
- Yu Darvish
- Cliff Lee
- Max Scherzer
- Anibal Sanchez
- Stephen Strasburg
- Chris Sale
- Doug Fister
- Jose Fernandez
- David Price
- Francisco Liriano
- Shelby Miller
- Mat Latos
- Derek Holland
- Jordan Zimmerman
- Homer Bailey
- Partrick Corbin
- Hiroki Kuroda
- Zack Greinke
Clay Buchholz(On the DL, no return set)Matt Harvey(Out for the season)
Let’s talk about the changes. Harvey falls off because he’s not pitching anymore this season. Greinke joins the italicized players thanks to a very strong stretch of pitching and his Ruthian season at the plate. Both Jarrod Parker and Cole Hamels have my attention, but I’m not ready to call them must watch starters just yet.
There is very little else worth moving on the list as only Liriano made the jump from fringe to stable with everyone else in italics maintaining their place on the list. I find the lack of movement kind of interesting, as I added and subtracted more guys in previous months. Perhaps this is a function of performance evening out, or perhaps it’s just a random blip on the radar. As always, this is an entirely subjective list based on my own sense of what makes someone compelling to wach.
Feel free to make a case for other starting pitchers who are must watch guys and we’ll consider adding them to the list.
How Was The Game? (September 2, 2013)
An October preview?.
Tigers 3, Red Sox 0
The two best teams in the AL faced off on Labor Day and the Tigers locked in a .500 or better record with their 81st win of the season. Doug Fister (28 GS, 179.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 3.9 WAR) gave the Tigers 7 scoreless despite having to pitch around 5 free passes (4 BB and 1 HBP) with a couple double plays and some flashy (?!) Tigers defense. Neither team could score until the Tigers broke through with 2 in the 7th and 1 in the 8th. Rondon pitched around a double from Pedroia in the 8th and Veras shut the door to end it. The Tigers will try to take the series Tuesday night with the talented Max Scherzer (27 GS, 183.1 IP, 2.90 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 5.4 WAR) getting the ball.
The Moment: Dirks triples to put the Tigers ahead in the 7th.
How Was The Game? (September 1, 2013)
A fun duel until the end.
Indians 4, Tigers 0
Justin Verlander (29 GS, 185.2 IP, 3.59 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 4.0 WAR) flipped the script on the Indians today after a lengthy and laborious first inning and started to look like the Verlander we used to know as the game wore on. It wasn’t the best he’s been this year, but he was solid, tossing 7 shutout innings while allowing 4 hits, 2 walks, and getting 6 strikeouts include a very nice dissection of Kubel in his penultimate batter. The bats were quiet, however, today and Verlander left the game in a 0-0 tie that would only be broken by an Aviles grand slam off Benoit in the 9th. The Tigers failed to rally and sent the Indians packing only trailing the Tigers by 7.5. Despite the loss, the Tigers faithful still got a chance to see Nick Castellanos make his MLB debut, in which he flew out to right. They’ll hop a plane to Boston and send Doug Fister (27 GS, 172.2 IP, 3.81 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 3.9 WAR) to the mound against the Sox on Monday afternoon.
The Moment: Castellanos gets called on to pinch hit and flies out in his MLB debut.
How Was The Month? Detroit Tigers August Report
A heck of a ride.
19-9 (80-56 overall)
In July the Tigers went 18-8 and put themselves in the AL Central driver’s seat. In August they won 19 of 28 and put the rest of the competition out of its misery. They entered August on a winning streak and continued to roll for seven more games and ended it 8.5 games up in the division.
The Tigers led the league in offense in a big way, leading the second place A’s in wRC+ 124 to 116 (what’s wRC+?) and in Wins Above Replacement (what’s WAR?) 7.0 to 6.8 over the Red Sox. Cabrera posted an insane 212 wRC+ followed by Victor Martinez at 158. Pena, Infante, Jackson, Fielder, and Dirks all provided 125 wRC+ or higher. Hunter, Santiago, and Iglesias all added 99 wRC+ or better themselves. It was a domination across the board at the plate and no one with more than 60 PA had less than a 99 wRC+.
The Tigers pitching staff turned in the third best month by WAR (4.7) and continued to pace the league overall. Sanchez (1.3 WAR), Scherzer (1.2), and Fister (1.0) dominated and Porcello (0.6) and Verlander (0.5) did nice work at the back end considering. The bullpen did decent work, surprisingly in the face of a subpar stretch from Drew Smyly.
On the whole, it was a fantastic month for the team as they put the division to bed. They’ll need to use September to fine tune some things and get everyone to full strength, but it’s hard to imagine having a much better month than one in which they played at a 110 win pace. They’ll face the Red Sox for three, but other than that their best opponent is the mediocre Royals. After five months, the Tigers sit ready for October.
The Moment: Pretty difficult to choose, but we’ll go with Hunter’s walk off. Or Iglesias’ play. Or Cabrera homering off Salazar. Or off Rivera. Or off Rivera again. Or Avila’s homerun. Holy cow.
New English D Joins A Tribute To The ’48 Indians
Thanks, on occasion, to the Tigers, the Cleveland Indians haven’t won a World Series since 1948. Sixty five long seasons. I grew up a few hours from Cleveland and some of my best childhood friends still root for the Tribe. I remember playing one on one baseball when I was ten years old against a lineup stacked with Kenny Lofton, Jim Thome, and Sandy Alomar. This is all by way of saying that I understand how Indians fans feel about their team and their near-Cubsian history.
I recall the 1997 World Series and the 2007 ALCS. Indians fans need a winner, but my rooting allegiance is directly at odds with such a thing. Which makes Did The Tribe Win Last Night‘s new project absolutely perfect. The team at DTTWLN have given up on the future and are turning to the past to cover the last Indians championship as if it were happening live. Starting in three weeks, they will begin covering the 1948 season one day at a time as if it were happening in the modern day. They’ll have game stories, features, Twitter coverage, and a whole host of other material to bring the 1948 season to life.
A few weeks ago, DTTWLN reached out to us at New English D and asked us to be a part of their coverage. Their goal was to bring other teams’ sites into the project to reach a broader audience and offer different angles on the last winner in the Rock and Roll capital of the world. Because we like baseball and history and want to do everything we can to make Cleveland fans happy without actually letting them win the Central, we accepted.
Now we won’t be writing game recaps alongside DTTWLN or anything so ambitious. But we will be chipping in. During each series between the Tigers and the Indians, New English D will be publishing posts about aspects of the 1948 Tigers to run as companion content for the 1948 project. This will start later in the month and will carry into March, but it won’t detract from any of our pennant chase coverage.
The 1948 Tigers finished 5th in the AL at 78-76, but that doesn’t mean we can’t enjoy them 65 years later. Come back and learn about the Tigers of the past and see what DTTWLN have to offer. You can find their page devoted to the project here and you can follow the Twitter account here.
It should be a lot of fun. Just as long as it doesn’t give the 2013 Indians any ideas….
SOEFA Sunday: Reliever Rankings Update (September 1, 2013)
You’ll recall earlier this year we introduced our very own reliever rankings called SOEFA, which you can read about in detail here. For a brief refresher, it combines inherited runner strand rate, expected OBP against, ERA-, and FIP- into a deviation from league average. This is a measure of performance, not necessarily ability, and seeks to provide a single number to judge relievers that balances context neutral and context dependent numbers. Certain pitchers, such as Craig Kimbrel, cannot be credited for stranding runners because they are never put into those situations. They are not penalized either, however. Zero is average, and will generally range between -2.5 to 2.5 with -1 to 1 being most common. This includes all pitchers who have thrown at least 20 IP in relief as of this morning, so the average score on this list is closer to 0.11 and the inherited runner threshold has been increased from 5 to 8. SOEFA is a rate stat not a counting stat. Should you wish to know the SOEFA for any other reliever, or on a day that isn’t Sunday, hit us on Twitter or in the comments section.
| Rank | Player | Team | SOEFA |
| 1 | Neal Cotts | Rangers | 1.00 |
| 2 | Kenley Jansen | Dodgers | 0.98 |
| 3 | Greg Holland | Royals | 0.95 |
| 4 | Koji Uehara | Red Sox | 0.87 |
| 5 | Kevin Siegrist | Cardinals | 0.83 |
| 6 | Mark Melancon | Pirates | 0.80 |
| 7 | Joaquin Benoit | Tigers | 0.79 |
| 8 | Jesse Crain | White Sox | 0.78 |
| 9 | Craig Kimbrel | Braves | 0.77 |
| 10 | Javier Lopez | Giants | 0.77 |
| 11 | Drew Smyly | Tigers | 0.76 |
| 12 | Alex Torres | Rays | 0.72 |
| 13 | Sergio Romo | Giants | 0.71 |
| 14 | Jason Grilli | Pirates | 0.71 |
| 15 | Jordan Walden | Braves | 0.70 |
| 16 | Edward Mujica | Cardinals | 0.69 |
| 17 | Paco Rodriguez | Dodgers | 0.68 |
| 18 | Nick Vincent | Padres | 0.65 |
| 19 | Louis Coleman | Royals | 0.65 |
| 20 | Sam LeCure | Reds | 0.62 |
| 21 | Shawn Kelley | Yankees | 0.61 |
| 22 | Glen Perkins | Twins | 0.60 |
| 23 | Luke Hochevar | Royals | 0.60 |
| 24 | Brandon Kintzler | Brewers | 0.58 |
| 25 | Jim Henderson | Brewers | 0.57 |
| 26 | Tanner Roark | Nationals | 0.57 |
| 27 | Dan Otero | Athletics | 0.54 |
| 28 | Preston Claiborne | Yankees | 0.54 |
| 29 | Trevor Rosenthal | Cardinals | 0.53 |
| 30 | Chris Withrow | Dodgers | 0.52 |
| 31 | Carlos Torres | Mets | 0.52 |
| 32 | Sean Doolittle | Athletics | 0.52 |
| 33 | David Robertson | Yankees | 0.51 |
| 34 | Brian Matusz | Orioles | 0.51 |
| 35 | Casey Fien | Twins | 0.51 |
| 36 | Jason Frasor | Rangers | 0.51 |
| 37 | Juan Perez | Blue Jays | 0.50 |
| 38 | Tommy Hunter | Orioles | 0.49 |
| 39 | Antonio Bastardo | Phillies | 0.49 |
| 40 | Will Harris | Diamondbacks | 0.47 |
| 41 | Josh Collmenter | Diamondbacks | 0.47 |
| 42 | Andrew Miller | Red Sox | 0.47 |
| 43 | Seth Maness | Cardinals | 0.47 |
| 44 | Randy Choate | Cardinals | 0.46 |
| 45 | Junichi Tazawa | Red Sox | 0.45 |
| 46 | Brett Cecil | Blue Jays | 0.44 |
| 47 | Bobby Parnell | Mets | 0.44 |
| 48 | J.P. Howell | Dodgers | 0.44 |
| 49 | Joel Peralta | Rays | 0.44 |
| 50 | Robbie Ross | Rangers | 0.43 |
| 51 | Scott Downs | – – – | 0.43 |
| 52 | Jake Diekman | Phillies | 0.43 |
| 53 | Jonathan Papelbon | Phillies | 0.43 |
| 54 | Manny Parra | Reds | 0.42 |
| 55 | Matt Reynolds | Diamondbacks | 0.42 |
| 56 | Boone Logan | Yankees | 0.41 |
| 57 | Vin Mazzaro | Pirates | 0.41 |
| 58 | Tyler Clippard | Nationals | 0.41 |
| 59 | Aroldis Chapman | Reds | 0.39 |
| 60 | Chad Qualls | Marlins | 0.39 |
| 61 | Ross Ohlendorf | Nationals | 0.38 |
| 62 | Luis Avilan | Braves | 0.37 |
| 63 | Casey Janssen | Blue Jays | 0.37 |
| 64 | Addison Reed | White Sox | 0.36 |
| 65 | Joe Thatcher | – – – | 0.36 |
| 66 | Gonzalez Germen | Mets | 0.35 |
| 67 | Brad Ziegler | Diamondbacks | 0.35 |
| 68 | Tony Watson | Pirates | 0.35 |
| 69 | Darren O’Day | Orioles | 0.34 |
| 70 | Donovan Hand | Brewers | 0.34 |
| 71 | Tom Gorzelanny | Brewers | 0.34 |
| 72 | Neil Wagner | Blue Jays | 0.34 |
| 73 | Tanner Scheppers | Rangers | 0.33 |
| 74 | Steve Cishek | Marlins | 0.33 |
| 75 | Craig Breslow | Red Sox | 0.32 |
| 76 | Matt Belisle | Rockies | 0.32 |
| 77 | Francisco Rodriguez | – – – | 0.31 |
| 78 | Jerome Williams | Angels | 0.31 |
| 79 | Josh Outman | Rockies | 0.31 |
| 80 | Alfredo Figaro | Brewers | 0.30 |
| 81 | Nate Jones | White Sox | 0.30 |
| 82 | Grant Balfour | Athletics | 0.28 |
| 83 | Dale Thayer | Padres | 0.28 |
| 84 | Steve Delabar | Blue Jays | 0.28 |
| 85 | Caleb Thielbar | Twins | 0.27 |
| 86 | Rex Brothers | Rockies | 0.27 |
| 87 | David Carpenter | Braves | 0.26 |
| 88 | Santiago Casilla | Giants | 0.26 |
| 89 | Jared Burton | Twins | 0.25 |
| 90 | Danny Farquhar | Mariners | 0.25 |
| 91 | Tim Collins | Royals | 0.25 |
| 92 | Aaron Loup | Blue Jays | 0.25 |
| 93 | Cody Allen | Indians | 0.24 |
| 94 | Blake Parker | Cubs | 0.24 |
| 95 | Jean Machi | Giants | 0.23 |
| 96 | Joe Smith | Indians | 0.22 |
| 97 | Anthony Varvaro | Braves | 0.22 |
| 98 | Ryan Cook | Athletics | 0.22 |
| 99 | Chad Gaudin | Giants | 0.22 |
| 100 | Ernesto Frieri | Angels | 0.22 |
| 101 | Charlie Furbush | Mariners | 0.22 |
| 102 | Jeanmar Gomez | Pirates | 0.21 |
| 103 | Jamey Wright | Rays | 0.21 |
| 104 | Carter Capps | Mariners | 0.20 |
| 105 | Alfredo Simon | Reds | 0.20 |
| 106 | Dan Jennings | Marlins | 0.18 |
| 107 | Rafael Betancourt | Rockies | 0.17 |
| 108 | Matt Thornton | – – – | 0.17 |
| 109 | J.C. Gutierrez | – – – | 0.16 |
| 110 | Jose Veras | – – – | 0.15 |
| 111 | Scott Rice | Mets | 0.15 |
| 112 | Brian Duensing | Twins | 0.14 |
| 113 | J.J. Putz | Diamondbacks | 0.14 |
| 114 | Fernando Rodney | Rays | 0.13 |
| 115 | Oliver Perez | Mariners | 0.13 |
| 116 | Jesse Chavez | Athletics | 0.12 |
| 117 | Justin Wilson | Pirates | 0.12 |
| 118 | Mike Dunn | Marlins | 0.12 |
| 119 | Wilton Lopez | Rockies | 0.12 |
| 120 | Matt Lindstrom | White Sox | 0.11 |
| 121 | Luke Gregerson | Padres | 0.11 |
| 122 | Tim Stauffer | Padres | 0.10 |
| 123 | Kevin Gregg | Cubs | 0.09 |
| 124 | Heath Bell | Diamondbacks | 0.09 |
| 125 | Craig Stammen | Nationals | 0.09 |
| 126 | Andrew Bailey | Red Sox | 0.09 |
| 127 | Mariano Rivera | Yankees | 0.08 |
| 128 | Ryan Webb | Marlins | 0.08 |
| 129 | J.J. Hoover | Reds | 0.08 |
| 130 | Ross Wolf | Rangers | 0.07 |
| 131 | Luis Ayala | – – – | 0.07 |
| 132 | Yoervis Medina | Mariners | 0.07 |
| 133 | Anthony Swarzak | Twins | 0.06 |
| 134 | Rafael Soriano | Nationals | 0.06 |
| 135 | David Aardsma | Mets | 0.06 |
| 136 | Sandy Rosario | Giants | 0.06 |
| 137 | Joe Nathan | Rangers | 0.06 |
| 138 | Joe Kelly | Cardinals | 0.06 |
| 139 | Tyson Ross | Padres | 0.04 |
| 140 | Bryan Shaw | Indians | 0.04 |
| 141 | Bruce Rondon | Tigers | 0.02 |
| 142 | James Russell | Cubs | 0.02 |
| 143 | Matt Guerrier | – – – | 0.01 |
| 144 | Carlos Villanueva | Cubs | 0.01 |
| 145 | LaTroy Hawkins | Mets | 0.00 |
| 146 | Fernando Abad | Nationals | 0.00 |
| 147 | Dane de la Rosa | Angels | 0.00 |
| 148 | Josh Edgin | Mets | -0.01 |
| 149 | Chris Perez | Indians | -0.01 |
| 150 | Michael Kohn | Angels | -0.01 |
| 151 | Darren Oliver | Blue Jays | -0.02 |
| 152 | Ryan Pressly | Twins | -0.02 |
| 153 | Edgmer Escalona | Rockies | -0.02 |
| 154 | Jim Johnson | Orioles | -0.02 |
| 155 | Kevin Jepsen | Angels | -0.03 |
| 156 | Cesar Ramos | Rays | -0.03 |
| 157 | Adam Ottavino | Rockies | -0.03 |
| 158 | Pat Neshek | Athletics | -0.03 |
| 159 | Luke Putkonen | Tigers | -0.04 |
| 160 | Adam Warren | Yankees | -0.04 |
| 161 | Aaron Crow | Royals | -0.04 |
| 162 | Tyler Thornburg | Brewers | -0.05 |
| 163 | Jake McGee | Rays | -0.05 |
| 164 | Jared Hughes | Pirates | -0.05 |
| 165 | Burke Badenhop | Brewers | -0.05 |
| 166 | Joe Ortiz | Rangers | -0.05 |
| 167 | Rob Scahill | Rockies | -0.06 |
| 168 | Ronald Belisario | Dodgers | -0.07 |
| 169 | Bryan Morris | Pirates | -0.08 |
| 170 | Huston Street | Padres | -0.09 |
| 171 | Tony Sipp | Diamondbacks | -0.10 |
| 172 | Manuel Corpas | Rockies | -0.10 |
| 173 | Jerry Blevins | Athletics | -0.11 |
| 174 | Darin Downs | Tigers | -0.12 |
| 175 | Logan Ondrusek | Reds | -0.12 |
| 176 | Brad Brach | Padres | -0.12 |
| 177 | Josh Roenicke | Twins | -0.13 |
| 178 | Kelvin Herrera | Royals | -0.13 |
| 179 | Troy Patton | Orioles | -0.14 |
| 180 | Jose Mijares | Giants | -0.15 |
| 181 | Tom Wilhelmsen | Mariners | -0.15 |
| 182 | Rich Hill | Indians | -0.16 |
| 183 | Phil Coke | Tigers | -0.16 |
| 184 | Raul Valdes | Phillies | -0.19 |
| 185 | Al Alburquerque | Tigers | -0.19 |
| 186 | A.J. Ramos | Marlins | -0.19 |
| 187 | Cory Gearrin | Braves | -0.19 |
| 188 | Ramon Troncoso | White Sox | -0.20 |
| 189 | Josh Fields | Astros | -0.20 |
| 190 | Nick Hagadone | Indians | -0.21 |
| 191 | Joba Chamberlain | Yankees | -0.21 |
| 192 | Drew Storen | Nationals | -0.23 |
| 193 | Jonathan Broxton | Reds | -0.23 |
| 194 | Wesley Wright | – – – | -0.26 |
| 195 | Mike Adams | Phillies | -0.26 |
| 196 | Pedro Strop | – – – | -0.26 |
| 197 | Marc Rzepczynski | – – – | -0.26 |
| 198 | Fernando Salas | Cardinals | -0.27 |
| 199 | Vinnie Pestano | Indians | -0.27 |
| 200 | Blake Beavan | Mariners | -0.27 |
| 201 | Donnie Veal | White Sox | -0.28 |
| 202 | Matt Albers | Indians | -0.28 |
| 203 | Greg Burke | Mets | -0.29 |
| 204 | Brad Lincoln | Blue Jays | -0.30 |
| 205 | Garrett Richards | Angels | -0.31 |
| 206 | Justin De Fratus | Phillies | -0.31 |
| 207 | David Hernandez | Diamondbacks | -0.35 |
| 208 | George Kontos | Giants | -0.36 |
| 209 | Michael Bowden | Cubs | -0.37 |
| 210 | Scott Atchison | Mets | -0.37 |
| 211 | John Axford | – – – | -0.37 |
| 212 | Paul Clemens | Astros | -0.37 |
| 213 | Michael Gonzalez | Brewers | -0.38 |
| 214 | Kyle Farnsworth | Rays | -0.39 |
| 215 | Clayton Mortensen | Red Sox | -0.41 |
| 216 | T.J. McFarland | Orioles | -0.42 |
| 217 | Esmil Rogers | Blue Jays | -0.42 |
| 218 | Alex Wilson | Red Sox | -0.44 |
| 219 | Travis Blackley | Astros | -0.45 |
| 220 | Lucas Luetge | Mariners | -0.48 |
| 221 | Brandon Lyon | Mets | -0.48 |
| 222 | Ian Krol | Nationals | -0.50 |
| 223 | Bruce Chen | Royals | -0.54 |
| 224 | Carlos Marmol | – – – | -0.56 |
| 225 | Jose Cisnero | Astros | -0.58 |
| 226 | Jeremy Horst | Phillies | -0.59 |
| 227 | Dallas Keuchel | Astros | -0.63 |
| 228 | Hector Ambriz | Astros | -0.63 |
| 229 | Jeremy Affeldt | Giants | -0.65 |
| 230 | Henry Rodriguez | – – – | -0.71 |
| 231 | Ryan Mattheus | Nationals | -0.72 |
| 232 | Michael Kirkman | Rangers | -0.74 |
| 233 | Hector Rondon | Cubs | -0.76 |
| 234 | Lucas Harrell | Astros | -0.91 |
| 235 | Brandon League | Dodgers | -0.93 |
| 236 | Anthony Bass | Padres | -0.97 |
| 237 | Shawn Camp | Cubs | -1.04 |
New English D 