How Was The Game? (May 11, 2014)
An outfield only a mother could love.
Twins 4, Tigers 3
Robbie Ray (2 GS, 11 ⅓ IP, 0.79 ERA, 2.38 FIP, 0.4 fWAR) did his part. It looked like the offense did their part. The bullpen sort of did their part, even. The problem child on this Mothers Day was the defense in the outfield corners as Hunter and Davis both made crucial defensive mistakes in the late innings that opened the door to Twins’ runs. Cabrera drove in one with a sac fly, Jackson singled in a run, and Kinsler homered which gave Ray a 3-0 lead with which to work. Ray tossed six scoreless innings, but they were only moderately impressive and gave way to a bullpen that got into trouble in the 7th and 8th and allowed runs due to poor defense. They pushed back a little in the 8th, but could not rally, falling to the Twins in the game and the series. The team will head to Baltimore for three games (and so will I!) with Rick Porcello (6 GS, 38 ⅔ IP, 3.49 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 0.9 fWAR) taking the ball in game one. As a programming note, How Was The Game? will be late over the next three days because I’ll be at the ballpark and not in front of a computer all game!
The Moment: Kinsler homers in the 5th.
How Was The Game? (May 10, 2014)
A love letter to Leyland.
Tigers 9, Twins 3
The Tigers honored Jim Leyland on Saturday, so of course, they played a perfect Jim Leyland game. It opened with a Don Kelly home run robbery and continued with a a power heavy offensive assault that featured home runs from the two biggest bats in the lineup. Max Scherzer (8 GS, 53 IP, 2.04 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 1.5 fWAR) threw a bad pitch to Brian Dozier which ended up in the seats and kept him from going deep into the game, but he was otherwise able to keep the Twins at bay. They pushed across three runs in the second and then Cabrera launched a three run bomb which Martinez would match later on in the game. Al-Al and Joba threw scoreless innings in relief and then it was time for a #PhilCokeInning in which the only runner was erased on a fine 3-6-3 double play. The Tigers will go for the series win on Sunday with Robbie Ray (1 GS, 5.1 IP, 1.69 ERA, 1.77 FIP, 0.2 fWAR) taking the mound for his second career start.
The Moment: Don Kelly robs a home run in the first.
How Was The Game? (May 9, 2014)
A Hughes disappointment.
Twins 2, Tigers 1
Justin Verlander (8 GS, 54 IP, 2.67 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 1.6 fWAR) didn’t have a whole lot of trouble with the Twins on this night, unfortunately, just two runs across seven innings simply didn’t cut it. Verlander gave up a pair in his final inning, but was otherwise pretty comfortable out on the mound on Friday night as he struck out five and walked two. The problem was that the Tigers couldn’t get anything going against Phil Hughes who had them off balance all night. They scattered a few hits and stole a couple of bases, but they didn’t have any serious pressure on the Twins starter through seven innings. In the 9th they pushed across a run on a pair of doubles, but could not find the equalizer. The loss drops them to 20-11 as they prepare for Saturday’s game with Max Scherzer (7 GS, 47 IP, 1.72 ERA, 2.47 FIP, 1.5 fWAR) getting the ball.
The Moment: Castellanos makes an outstanding leaping grab.
One Quick Thing: Smyly’s High Pitch to Altuve
So listen. Smyly didn’t have his best day, but that’s okay. It wasn’t a bad day or anything. In times like these, we should take comfort in the parts of the game that are fun, even if the sum of their parts didn’t go our way. I’m obviously talking about Jose Altuve. Particularly, a pitch Smyly threw to him in the fifth inning.
Altuve is short. We get it, but one of the fun things we can see at Brooks Baseball is where Pitchf/x draws his strike zone. For Altuve, the top of the zone is 2.97 feet off the ground. Which is kind of amazing. That had my attention all week. Then, Smyly threw a really high pitch and it made me wonder if that was the highest pitch anyone has ever thrown to Altuve!
Here’s the pitch:
It’s 5.1 feet off the ground, according to Pitchf/x. Graphically:
Based on data available at Baseball Savanat, we can find 15 pitches in Altuve’s career that were higher. Several were intentional walk/pitchouts, which don’t count. The highest real one came on April 12, 2013. It was 5.985 feet off the ground! So Smyly didn’t break a record, but he was close. Enjoy:
New English D Audio Episode 6 (5-8-14)
After a few weeks off, New English D Audio is back on a regular schedule. Today, we talk with Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish, which is part of the SB Nation network. You can follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisCotillo. Chris and I talk about his role in some of the big offseason news, including breaking the Doug Fister trade. We also discuss Stephen Drew, the upcoming draft and deadline, and what he’s thinking about baseball’s first month.
You can stream or download the show here, or you can subscribe and download on iTunes. If you have any problems downloading or streaming, please comment or let me know on Twitter. If the show is too popular and overloads the server or if MLB tries to pull more podcasts, you will be able to download the episode at this link without any trouble.
How Was The Game? (May 8, 2014)
A small correction.
Astros 6, Tigers 2
After days and days of punishing their opponets, the Tigers finally dropped a game, their first in ten tries. Drew Smyly (4 GS, 27.1 IP, 2.96 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 0.4 fWAR) wasn’t bad, but he struck out two, walked three, and allowed three oruns in 5.1 innings and gave way to the bullpen too early. Reed allowed a run and Miller gave up two more before things were said and done, and the offense couldn’t put together a 7 run day. Castellanos drove in Jackson in the 2nd and Martinez went deep in the 4th, but Keuchel kept the Tigers off balance, sending them to the showers unhappy for the first time in what seemed like forever. The Tigers still took the series 3-1 and enter the weekend set 20-10 on the season. They’ll call on Justin Verlander (7 GS, 47 IP, 2.68 ERA, 2.97 FIP, 1.3 fWAR) to get things going against the Twins on Friday night.
The Moment: VMart stays hot, homering in the 4th.
How Was The Game? (May 7, 2014)
A little bit closer.
Tigers 3, Astros 2
After completely obliterating the Astros on Tuesday, the Tigers played a closer ballgame on Wednesday behind Rick Porcello (6 GS, 38 ⅔ IP, 3.49 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 0.9 fWAR). Cabrera put them on the board with a two run shot in the first inning and Victor added a solo shot for good measure later on. Porcello was quite good again, and cruised through the first six innings, only allowing a pair of runs as he began to tire in the 7th. He struck out five batters and generated 12 swinging strikes in exactly 100 pitches as he guided the Tigers to their 20th win in 29 tries and their 8th straight. They will go for the four game sweep and 9th straight win Thursday afternoon with Drew Smyly (3 GS, 22 IP, 2.45 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 0.5 fWAR) on the bump.
The Moment: Cabrera barely clears the right field wall, and George Springer, in the first.
How Was The Game? (May 6, 2014)
A Ray of hope.
Tigers 11, Astros 4
If Robbie Ray (1 GS, 5 ⅓ IP, 1.69 ERA, 1.80 FIP, 0.3 fWAR) was scared during his first major league start, it didn’t show in the results as he allowed a single run in 5 ⅓ innings while giving up five hits and walk to go along with his five strikeouts. Ray had some trouble in the first and sixth, but ultimately performed well in his MLB debut, grabbing eight swinging strikes in 86 pitches. The bats did their part too, getting runs in many innings courtesy of many players. I had originally tried to identify all of them for you, but it became a very long sentence. Everyone had hits and stuff. The bullpen also managed to not ruin things completely, which is always a plus and gave the Tigers their 7th straight win and their 19th overall. They’ll try to lock up the series on Wednesday behind Rick Porcello (5 GS, 32 IP, 3.66 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 0.7 fWAR).
The Moment: Robbie Ray exits to his first Comerica Park standing ovation.
The End Of The BABIP Infield
If you’ve watched baseball over the last four seasons, you know that the Tigers have had an excellent collection of starting pitchers. They get lots of strikeouts, don’t issues a ton of walks, and generally do things that lead to run prevention. Although, if you’re a slave to ERA, you’ve probably underrated them a bit. Everyone knows why. For years, the infield defense has been pretty rough. 2011 was a year of flux, with a mishmash of 2B and 3B, and 2012-2013 they used a corner infield tandem that could only be described as “good hitters.”
That’s okay, the Tigers prioritized strikeouts on the mound to soften the blow and prioritized hitting the ball very hard to justify the weak defenders. It seemed to be a self-aware strategy, but this year, after trading away Fielder and shifting Cabrera back to first, the defense is starting to fall into place. Castellanos is a significant upgrade over Cabrera, Cabrera is an upgrade over Fielder, Kinsler is probably a wash with Infante. Shortstop is confusing, because Iglesisas was awesome, but only played for two months and Peralta was good at certain things, not to mention Alex Gonzalez being around for a couple weeks this year.
This offseason, I suggested the new defense (with Iglesias) would be something like 10 to 60 runs better than last year. It’s too early to be terribly sure about that prediction (and let’s drop it down by about 5 to 10 runs), but it’s not too early to notice something very interesting. Right now, the infield has a collective UZR of about 3.5, meaning that the defense has saved three and a half runs more than the average infield. They’re at -2 DRS, but it should be noted that they’re +3 without Alex Gonzalez, which is relevant going forward.
By the popular metrics, they look much better than last year, when they were somewhere between 10 and 26 runs below average over a full season. But those runs above and below average metrics are sometimes a black box to the average fan. It’s hard to quantify “average” and a “run saved.” So let’s take a look at some very simple numbers that should tell a very simple story.
Below is a table of batting average on balls in play against (BABIP) for ground balls. The first column is league average. The second column is the Tigers.
| Year | League | Tigers |
| 2011 | 0.239 | 0.252 |
| 2012 | 0.236 | 0.246 |
| 2013 | 0.241 | 0.266 |
| 2014 | 0.242 | 0.231 |
Well, then. The Tigers were at least ten percentage points worse than average in each of the previous three years. This year, with several days of Alex Gonzalez, they’re still 11 percentage points better than average. It’s not a full season sample, but it’s close to 300 ground balls, which isn’t small potatoes.
I wouldn’t jump for joy and be certain that the Tigers are all of sudden going to be a great defensive team all season (and don’t even get me started on Torii Hunter’s extremely poor performance in RF), but it’s encouraging. Take a look at their starting pitcher ERA and FIP. The fact that they are outperforming their FIP this year after years of underperforming further supports the point.
| Year | ERA | FIP |
| 2011 | 4.10 | 3.94 |
| 2012 | 3.76 | 3.56 |
| 2013 | 3.44 | 3.12 |
| 2014 | 2.73 | 2.92 |
The days of Tigers starters being slayed by the Gods of BABIP may well be coming to an end. Which is all the more reason to make sure they don’t let Porcello reach free agency.
How Was The Game? (May 5, 2014)
Blue-eyed.
Tigers 2, Astros 0
Max Scherzer (7 GS, 47 IP, 1.72 ERA, 2.52 FIP, 1.5 fWAR) gave the Tigers a superb effort in this one, although, it probably shouldn’t totally count given that it was the Astros whom he was victimizing. He went 8 innings, allowed three hits, no walks, and punched out nine. He only ran into trouble in his final inning, but pitched out of it with relative ease. He couldn’t manage his first career complete game (172 starts and counting), but the Tigers pushed across a run in the 7th on a Rajai Davis single and another on a VMart bomb in the 9th. It was nice, clean game if you enjoy pitchers’ duels. The win, their sixth in a row, lifts the Tigers to 18-9 on the season and further establishes their rotation as one of the best of all time, ending the day with all-time best ERA- and FIP- marks. It’s only May 5th, but it’s still worth noting. Robbie Ray (MLB Debut) will join the party on Tuesday, making his debut, trying to do his best to make us forget Doug Fister.
The Moment: Scherzer, Avila, and Castellanos cap off the 8th with a strike-em-out-throw-em-out.
New English D 