How Was The Game? (September 3, 2014)
At least it was quick?
Indians 7, Tigers 0
This didn’t exactly go well, but at least it went fast. Justin Verlander (28 GS, 178 IP, 4.80 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 2.6 fWAR) meandered his way through the first few innings and looked okay for a moment before surrendering to fatigue and winding up with an ugly 6 runs in 6.2 innings. There were nine hits and a walk to go with his seven strikeouts but the only thing you can really say was that it wasn’t a disaster. The bats ran into a buzzsaw, and while I wouldn’t classify them as quality at bats, it was a pretty tall order to match Salazar during such a sharp night. Meh, they can still take three or four behind Max Scherzer (28 GS. 187.2 IP, 3.26 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 4.8 fWAR) Thursday night.
The Moment: Kinsler makes a sparkling dive to his right to take away a hit.
How Was The Game? (September 2, 2014)
Just long enough.
Tigers 4, Indians 2
Tuesday was all about strikeouts and leaving men on base. Kyle Lobstein (2 GS, 17 IP, 3.18 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 0.2 fWAR) pitched into the 6th after allowing a two run homer in the first and threw up 10 strikeouts along the way. Carrasco let the Tigers grab some hits but he also stranded a whole bunch of them via the strikeout. It was a close game but there were tons of chances for both teams and sadly, Avila might be out for a while with a concussion. If we’re chronicling managerial mistakes he let Holaday hit in a bad spot despite having a third catcher, he used Carrera to pinch hit for Suarez, then he didn’t run for Hunter and used Moya to run for Cabrera. Fortunately, Martinez the lesser came to the plate with a chance in the 9th and did his thing, sending a ball out to center to give the Tigers a two run lead. Nathan got the 9th and only allowed one runner before securing the win. Justin Verlander (27 GS, 171.1 IP, 4.68 ERA, 3.92 ERA, 2.5 fWAR) goes Wednesday.
The Moment: JD Martinez hits a no doubt go-ahead bomb in the 9th.
Tigers Preach Changeup, David Price Listens
One of my favorite New English D pieces last year pointed out how the Tigers seemed to be increasing their use of the changeup rotation wide. It wasn’t clear if the changeup directive was coming from the front office, Jeff Jones, or Alex Avila, but it sure looked like changeups were on the menu in Detroit. Normally, we don’t do small sample analysis with predictive interpretations here, but I think there is enough of a track record to call your attention to this: David Price is throwing way more changeups as a Tiger.
It’s only been six starts compared to 23 in Tampa, but the difference is incredible and the organizational history suggests it’s probably not a fluke. Let’s take a peak:
| Season | Team | FA% | FT% | FC% | SL% | CU% | KC% | CH% |
| 2008 | Rays | 75.1 | 20.6 | 4.3 | ||||
| 2009 | Rays | 71.3 | 3.3 | 19.9 | 5.5 | |||
| 2010 | Rays | 56.8 | 17.5 | 3.4 | 15.6 | 6.6 | ||
| 2011 | Rays | 36.7 | 34.1 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 11.1 | ||
| 2012 | Rays | 25.2 | 35.8 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 11.2 | 10.9 | |
| 2013 | Rays | 19.6 | 33.7 | 17.7 | 0.6 | 11.5 | 16.9 | |
| 2014 | 2 Teams | 15.3 | 42.1 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 19.5 | |
| 2014 | Rays | 15.1 | 42.2 | 14.1 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 17.6 | |
| 2014 | Tigers | 16.1 | 41.7 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 27.8 |
These are the PITCHf/x classifications. Note that there are three lines for 2014. The first one is season totals with his Rays and Tigers numbers broken down further. He’s backing off his cutter and his breaking ball in favor of way more changeups. Way more.
Over his six starts in Detroit he’s throwing a changeup 28% of the time after doing so only 18% of the time in TB. Now we know PITCHf/x can get the classifications wrong, but according to Brooks Baseball’s manually tagged pitches, 17.3% of his pitches in TB were changeups and 28% in Detroit. In other words, this is not one of those freaky classification problems.
Funny thing is, he’s not getting more whiffs or more swings with the changeup in Detroit. He is, however, dramatically reducing the quality of contact. We don’t know that for sure, but ISO against his changeup in TB was .182 this year and it’s .038 in Detroit.
The percentage of changeups is way up against lefties, going from about 3% to close to 15% with a 10% jump in whiff rate to boot. The power is down against righties and lefties and there is a usage jump from 21 to 32% against RHH. It’s a universal increase in his use of the pitch.
And it’s working. Looking at FanGraphs’ PITCHf/x pitch values per 100 pitches, which simply tell you how well a pitcher has limited production against those pitches (positive is good, league average is 0), his changeup has become crazy valuable. Same chart as above, this time with pitch values:
| Season | Team | wFA/C | wFT/C | wFC/C | wSL/C | wCU/C | wKC/C | wCH/C |
| 2008 | Rays | 1.35 | 1.48 | 3.02 | ||||
| 2009 | Rays | 0.57 | 0.32 | -2.60 | 1.67 | |||
| 2010 | Rays | 0.54 | 2.11 | 0.99 | 0 | 1.13 | ||
| 2011 | Rays | 0.39 | 0.79 | 0.28 | -1.5 | 2.51 | ||
| 2012 | Rays | 0.86 | 1.03 | 1.83 | -0.22 | 2.02 | 1.12 | |
| 2013 | Rays | 0.75 | 1.16 | 0.02 | 4.30 | -1.88 | 1.86 | |
| 2014 | 2 Teams | 0.17 | 0.61 | 1.26 | -0.61 | 2.01 | 0.62 | |
| 2014 | Rays | 0.41 | 0.91 | 1.49 | -0.61 | 2.15 | -0.35 | |
| 2014 | Tigers | -0.77 | -0.66 | -0.2 | 1.68 | 3.2 |
Look at that huge leap in value from the pitch. Incredible.
Now I wouldn’t take these results are predictive. It’s only a small number of innings and teams will adjust. But Price coming to Detroit and completely changing his mix of pitches to both righties and lefties can’t be a coincidence. For now, it’s working like a charm and he’s just another in a long line of Tigers who get the most out of their offspeed pitch.
How Was The Game? (September 1, 2014)
Powerful.
Tigers 12, Indians 1
The Indians had a late night and were greeted by a powerful Tigers lineup that made it easy on David Price (29 GS, 210.1 IP, 3.25 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 5.0 fWAR) who gave up an early run and settled in for seven solid innings. The bats were the story, however, as the Tigers chased Corey Kluber with five early runs that came on three big home runs from the middle of the order. But the Tigers weren’t done, adding seven additional runs in the late innings thanks to another Cabrera bomb, some hit parading, and then an assault from the Tigers recent minor league callups, Perez, Moya, and Collins. The big win gets the series off on the right foot and sets them up for Tuesday behind Kyle Lobstein (1 GS, 11.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 0.1 fWAR).
The Moment: Perez, Moya, and Collins put on a show as the Seawol…Tigers run away on the Tribe.
New English D 