It took a few days to complete the stages of baseball offseason grief, and New English D is back to look forward (and back) to the 2015 Detroit Tigers. We’ll be sure to analyze some of the key contributors from the 2014 iteration, but it’s time to start considering what comes next. Over the next couple weeks, I’ll present my suggestions for how the team can set it self up best for the upcoming year. Today, we’ll take a look at the players who are set to be free agents when the clock ticks down on the World Series.
The Tigers are looking at seven players whose pacts are up next month: Max Scherzer, Torii Hunter, Victor Martinez, Jim Johnson, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Coke, and Joel Hanrahan. Some of these are key pieces, some aren’t. Let’s go through it.
Joel Hanrahan – RP
Hanrahan is the easiest one because there’s virtually no real chance he signs a major league deal, or if he does, it will be for $1 million with some incentives. A big injury and a setback? Sure he has a couple of quality seasons on his resume, but where he pitches in 2015 is going to depend on what organization he likes and who is willing to take a flyer.
Recommendation: Offer a minor league deal, let him walk if he doesn’t want it.
Jim Johnson – RP
I actually loved the idea of signing Johnson mid-season because it was the perfect kind of low risk, reliever deal that the Tigers don’t do enough. It didn’t work out. It happens. He walked basically everyone in the world. He walked so many batters he got endorsement deals from professional dog walkers. It was a lot.
I think it’s entirely plausible that he’ll be a fine relief pitcher but a 32 year old who couldn’t find the zone all year? Not exactly someone you spend much money on. If he’s willing to sign for cheap to rebuild the value, he’s a guy I’d absolutely let compete for a job.
Recommendation: Offer a minor league deal, or very small guaranteed contract.
Joba Chamberlain – RP
Joba’s a bit tougher because he was quite good for a few month before coming back to Earth down the stretch. The ending was bad, but you have to judge the thing as a whole, and on the whole, it was a good, productive season. Entering his age 29 season and far enough removed from two serious injuries, I’m on board with Joba serving as a team’s 3rd or 4th RHP. If he wants to come back in a slightly less prominent role, that totally works for me. He’s earned himself a one year deal worth a few million or a year and an option conditional on health.
I know many soured on Joba, but he’s the kind of guy I wouldn’t mind if he wasn’t getting high leverage innings quite so often.
Recommendation: Offer a one year, $4.5 million deal. Sweeten the pot with an option.
Phil Coke – RP
Coke isn’t a good reliever, but he’s decent enough against lefties and he’s kind of fun to have around. I have no idea what kind of market he’ll have, but there’s not a lot left for him to do in Detroit. If he’ll take a small deal and no guarantee of a roster spot, that’s great. But if he’s looking for a long-term relationship, it’s probably time for an amicable split.
Recommendation: Offer a small, good-will deal.
Torii Hunter – OF
Now that we’re out of the relief pitcher nexus, it’s time to make some tough decisions. As much as people seem to like Torii, there’s just no place on this roster for him. He’s had a very nice career and he’s had a fun little late career run, but the defense is totally gone and you have to hit better than he does to play a corner OF spot that poorly. If you figure he’s a -10 defender at best, you’re looking for a .350-.360 wOBA just to get yourself an average player. And that might be generous defensively. He could work nicely as a pinch hitter/DH/5th OF, but a guy like Torii won’t go out like that. There’s just no place for him on a club desperate for defense.
Recommendation: Approach him about a bench role, wish him well when he says no thanks.
Victor Martinez – DH/1B
Martinez had his best offensive season at 35 thanks to an amazing power surge and if you believe the projections, enough of it is here to stay to want him back in 2015. You worry about an aging hitter with no position, but VMart has maxed out his negative value on defense and on the bases. He’s going to be a -25 runner/defender, so to get to 3 WAR or so, you need 35 batting runs. That’s about a .380 wOBA. He’s projected for .371.
Basically, if he comes back to Earth as you expect, a 2-3 win player is what you’ll get. But if the power is sustainable for a year or two, you might get another run at 4 WAR. Plus, there definitely appears to be something to his leadership skills and the way his approach sets a model for young players. I’m also fine paying a premium for how gloriously fun it is to watch him hit. You don’t want to go crazy, but the Tigers should match any offer that’s pretty close to theirs. It’s not so much that he’s going to be a bargain, but replacing his production is going to be tough.
Recommendation: Qualifying offer. Shoot for 3 years, $45 million. Try to keep it reasonable. Don’t pay $75 million. Maybe $55M?
Max Scherzer – SP
The only way Max stays in Detroit is if the team can trade Verlander, or something else super crazy happens. He’s going to be expensive. He turned himself into an ace and he’s going to get paid like one. You’ll be buying age 30-35/36 and that’s going to include some decline years, but decline from a 5-6 WAR peak.
Scherzer will beat the 6/$144M offer he got this offseason and I think 6/$180M is probably the lowest amount he’d accept. Practically speaking, you need 25 WAR over those six years to make that work, so you’re betting on a very slow decline. That’s just not a wager you can make with so much money tied up in old players. Max has been terrific for the Tigers, but he’s simply too expensive to be worth the cost. If they hadn’t extended Verlander, you might think about the risk, but you can’t lock up $75 million in three players on the wrong side of 30.
Max is going to be good for another couple seasons, but there’s just no way to make it work.
Recommendation: Qualifying offer. Lots of hugs.