Never put much stock into anything during trade rumor season unless you hear a word like “close” or “nearing a deal.” If the media person putting the rumor out there isn’t talking about something that is about to happen, chances are someone gave them the info because they wanted the message out there for strategic purposes or some type of PR. Ignore 95% of everything. It’s a safe rule.
But today, Jason Stark dropped this nugget. I don’t know how true it is, but it did strike me as something worth considering:
The Padres should be sellers and selling these two players would make some sense. Shields is making a lot of money and Cashner is a year away from free agency. They would be wise to abandon their 2015 plan and reload. Trading these two is logical.
And oddly, combining the two would look an awful lot like what the Tigers need. The Tigers have a great offense but their pitching is very bad. The problem the team faces, and the reason I’ve argued for selling, is that they would need both quantity and quality in order to make a run. Enter Shields and Cashner. You might be able to squeeze three wins out of the pair in 2015, and thanks to the salaries involved, you could do so without paying Johnny Cueto prices.
This move also makes a lot of sense for the Tigers because while it is short term focused, it also helps them for the 2016 season. And while the Tigers will lose some key free agents this winter, they still have a good enough roster to make things happen next year. Shields and Cashner can’t be a rotation on their own, but with Sanchez and something from Verlander and Greene, it’s more palatable.
Obviously, there’s a cost question. What would it take to get these two players. Shields had to wait all winter to get a 4/$80M deal, so the sense in the industry is likely that this contract is not a huge steal. Cashner is underpaid for his per game talent, but his health history provides good reason. I don’t know if the Tigers should pay the asking price, whatever that may be, but I feel confident they can scrape together a collection of players to satisfy the Padres. Again, this is an all in kind of move, so it would further tax the already barren system. It’s an option, though, if they want it to be.
Which brings me to the kicker. The Padres wouldn’t mind shedding Craig Kimbrel’s contract. This is a widely circulated rumor, but one that makes sense. The Tigers would have to strip the system further, but Kimbrel is controlled for a few more years and could contribute beyond 2015 and man do they need him.
To buy correctly, the Tigers can’t rent. They shouldn’t go all in for 2015 if the benefits don’t carry over. However, if you get Shields, Cashner, and maybe Kimbrel, you have done some of the offseason work.
Another angle, why don’t you offer to take Melvin Upton’s stupid contract to save some prospect cost? He’s bad but you might as well take a financial hit over a talent one.
I’m not sure this is the right move, but if you’re going to buy, this might be the path for the club. Putting all your eggs in the 2015 basket is foolish given the circumstance, but if you buy with an eye on 2016, it might work out. The Tigers need to decide what the long term plan is, but if that includes a 2015 push, AJ Preller should expect a call from Dave Dombrowski.