The Morning Edition (April 10, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Kris Medlen cruises past the Fish in Miami
- Cliff Lee gets help from his offense, but comes up one out shy of a complete game in aa 8-3 win over the Mets
- Pettitte needs little help, but gets a lot in 14-1 win over the Indians
- The Nationals hang on for dear life in an 8-7 win over the White Sox
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Moore faces the Rangers in a redux of his 2011 ALDS Game 1 start (2p Eastern)
- Barry Zito looks to build on his strong first start against the Rockies (345p Eastern)
- Kyle Lohse will try to follow his strong first start against the Cubs (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How awesome was Don Kelly’s catch last night?
It happened after we went to press on Monday night, but I can’t help but comment on what happened in the final at bat of Monday’s game between the Rangers and Rays. Down one, with one on and two out, Ben Zobrist stepped to the plate to face Joe Nathan. Marty Foster gave us this beauty of a strikezone.
Jump over to Jeff Sullivan’s article at Fangraphs for .gifs of the pitch and how awful it looked it real time. Foster admitted after the game that he missed the call. We’re speaking specifically about #6 above (but #1 was bad too!). It’s hard to be too critical of MLB umpires give the state of officiating in high profile events in other sports like the NCAA title game, but this is just one of the many reasons why we need expanded replay in baseball. There are a lot of calls that we could get right if we let the umpires take another look. Not only would it help us get calls right, but it would take pressure off the umpires and remove a lot of tension that comes after blown calls. Heck, there were two clear ones on Opening Night in Houston and another really bad one (that the crew chief overturned) in Detroit this weekend. A lot of this is avoidable, so let’s avoid it!
The Morning Edition (April 9, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Justin Upton’s 4-hit game powers the Braves past the Marlins
- Matt Harvey pitches brilliantly again while Halladay struggles as the Mets beat the Phillies 7-2
- Mitchell Boggs vomits up the game as the Reds rally for 9 runs in the 9th to top the Cards 13-4
- Clay Buchholz shines as the Red Sox beat the O’s on Opening Day in Boston
What I’m Watching Today:
- Jake Peavy and Gio Gonzalez hook up in D.C. (7p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee tries to get the Phillies rotation back on track against the Mets (7p Eastern)
- The ageless Andy Pettitte tries to quiet the Indians’ bats (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are we watching the end of Roy Halladay?
Three things stood out on Monday in major league baseball. Let’s take them in turn. First, Mitchell Boggs gave up 6 earned runs to go with his four walks in 1/3 of an inning. This is particularly notable because he’s on my fantasy baseball team, so I can tell you that calculates out to a 162.00 ERA and 18.00 WHIP for the day. Good grief. Second, Matt Harvey is very good. The Phillies aren’t the best offense in baseball, but his 7IP, 3H, 1R, 2BB, 9K line is hard to ignore. For the season, he’s 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA, 1.14 FIP and a 12.21 K/9. Stats don’t mean much over two starts, but those are pretty snazzy. Matt Harvey is officially my non-Tiger man-crush of 2013. Third, Roy Halladay might be slipping away from us. Against the Mets on Monday he went 4IP, gave up 7 earned runs, walked 3, and struckout just 3 as well. His ERA on the season is 14.73. Again, you don’t want to make too much of the numbers, but Halladay, after a rough 2012 and rough spring, just doesn’t look like the pitcher we used to know. A one time surgeon of the strikezone, now looks as if he is using Apple Maps to find it. Just two years ago, at the start of 2011, I wouldn’t have batted an eye that Doc was the best pitcher in baseball. This year, he didn’t make my top 9 NL pitchers. I’m not sure he’s in the top 40 right now. He has to be hurt, right? It’s tough to watch.
The Morning Edition (April 8, 2013)
From Last Night:
- R.A. Dickey, David Price, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, and Stephen Strasburg all get hit hard in losing efforts
- Will Middlebrooks hits 3 HR in 13-0 thumping of the Jays
- Dayan Viciedo walks off on Kameron Loe in the 10 inning as the White Sox beat the Mariners
- Marlon Byrd wins it for the Mets in the bottom of the 9th against the Marlins
- The Twins silence Chris Davis and beat the O’s
- Rockies beat the Friars 9-1, improve to 5-1 on the season
- Darvish and Weaver surrender runs early in Arlington
What I’m Watching Today:
- The Reds and Cards square off in an early NL Central showdown (4p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces Roy Halladay in a battle of pitchers going in opposite directions (7p Eastern)
- The Marlins play their first home game after the winter firesale against Paul Maholm and the Braves (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Was Halladay’s weird outing last week a sign of things to come or blip on the road back to dominance?
Sunday was not a good day for the College of Aces as Dickey, Price, Hamels, Cain, and Straburg all gave up 6 or more earned runs in relatively short outings. As I’m writing this, Darvish and Weaver have given up five runs between them in just two innings, so either one of them could join the party. Sabathia shut down the Tigers and Verlander was good against the Yankees save for one bad pitch. It’s hard to imagine that on a day in which so many of baseball’s best starters took to the hill that so few good pitching performances occurred. I toyed around with the idea of developing an AceStart% statistic that measured what percentage of aces pitched on a given day, and I would guess that Sunday would be the highest non-Opening Day of the season as far as that goes, but it sure didn’t look like it. 148 runs were scored in the 14 games that are final at this point. It was not the day of great pitching I hoped for, but hey, that’s what makes baseball great. On any given day, any team can make a great pitcher look silly.
In a shocking turn of events, however, it was not Chris Davis who won New English D’s “Race to 1.0 WAR,” but rather the A’s shortstop, Jed Lowrie. Mr. Lowrie has 30 plate appearances in his team’s first 7 games and has 3 HR and a .500/.567/1.000 line to go with his .645 wOBA and 326 wRC+. If you had Jed Lowrie in the first to 1.0 WAR pool, come claim your prize. It’s a unicorn. Lowrie, at this moment, is on pace for 23.1 WAR. That would be a record, if you’re curious, topping Babe Ruth‘s 1923 season (.393/.545/.764) by a full 8 wins. Lowrie is a good player, but I’m willing to take the under on that one.
Booing Josh Hamilton: Hard Feelings in Arlington
You know the story. Josh Hamilton is drafted #1 by the Rays. Josh Hamilton goes to a dark place of personal demons dealing with drugs and alcohol addiction. Josh Hamilton returns to baseball and has a successful year with the Reds, gets traded to Texas and becomes a bona fide star. He wins an MVP, makes two World Series, and despite struggles, produces at a very high level.
And then there were relapses, a terrible accident involving a fan, and awful plate discipline. There was a really bad final few weeks that coincided with the Rangers missing the real playoffs on the final day.
There were boos. And contract talks. And a former hero moving to LA to go where he felt like he was wanted. I’ve written a lot about Josh Hamilton as a player. His amazing skills and terrible plate discipline. His flawed past.
And then there was this, that Hamilton said after leaving town:
“Texas, especially Dallas, has always been a football town. The good with the bad is they’re supportive, but they also got a little spoiled at the same time, pretty quickly. You can understand a really true, true baseball town. There’s true baseball fans in Texas but it’s not a true baseball town.”
All of this stacked on top of itself makes it pretty unsurprising that the Rangers faithful greeted him with Bronx cheers on Friday. They booed. They read the paper. There were hard feelings all around.
I have complicated feelings about Hamilton. I’ll lay them out.
- Hamilton is very talented and can do really exciting things on the field
- Hamilton has terrible plate discipline, a skill I value greatly
- Hamilton wasted a great deal of his God-given talent when he buried himself in drugs and alcohol
- Hamilton’s story is one of redemption, which is very emotionally powerful
- Hamilton seemed to phone in his final month in Texas
On balance, Josh Hamilton has enough personal demons to deal with without me getting on his case. But he’s frustrating to watch. He could have been an all-time great and he wasted so much potential. He doesn’t seem to like baseball very much, but he’s a great comeback story.
But the fans in Texas have some reason to be angry. I think he did quit on them last year. He looked awful in the biggest games of the year. A little more from Hamilton during the final weeks might have helped the Rangers secure a playoff berth. But then again, they don’t know what was going on with him. The right thing to do from the fan perspective would have been unconditional support. He was theirs, they should defend him.
And then he left. They parted ways. It was a breakup that both sides needed. Fine, good, it was time. But then the quote posted above. Hamilton insulted the Rangers’ fans. He challenged their love of the game. He made it about them and not about him. He all of people should know about his flaws. But there he was, blaming them. Pouring salt in the wound.
Classy it was not. If Hamilton hadn’t said it, I think I’d take his side on the booing issue. But after the way he left, to make a public statement like that, Hamilton was asking for it.
He deserved it. But the fans didn’t come away smelling like roses. It was just kind of ugly. It was a divorce. They couldn’t live together anymore and it was time to go their separate ways. But then there was a snarky comment to a mutual friend that resulted in an arms race of animosity.
It’s sad really. There’s so much about their relationship that was good. And it ended so poorly.
I want to blame Josh Hamilton for who he is, but that’s probably not right. I want to blame the fans for bailing on him too early. I want to blame Hamilton for disparaging his old fan base. I wish the fans had taken the high road rather than show him up.
It wasn’t pretty, but not everything is. Josh Hamilton is baseball’s flawed giant and he always will be. He was wrong. The fans were wrong. Time is the only thing that will heal this wound. Hopefully, the day will come when they can reconcile. And the kids who grew up wearing Hamilton jerseys can stand and cheer for star they used to love.
The Morning Edition (April 7, 2013)
From Last Night:
- BJ Upton hits a game tying homerun in the 9th inning against the Cubs, Justin Upton follows him with a walk off
- The Nats top the Reds in 11 innings
- Albert Pujols’ big day powers the Angels past the Rangers
- Kershaw blanks the Pirates over 7 innings in LA
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lester and Dickey face off in Toronto (1p Eastern)
- Marlins prospect Jose Fernandez makes his MLB debut at Citi Field (1p Eastern)
- Strasburg looks to follow his excellent opening day against the Reds (1p Eastern)
- Darvish faces the Angels in his near perfecto encore (8p Eastern)
- Lots of other aces in action including: Sabathia, Verlander, Cueto, Samardizija, Shields, Hamels, Price, Sale, Wainwright, Cain, and Weaver
The Big Question:
- What first week standouts will carry their success into week two of the season?
The first week of the MLB season is always exciting but it is often hard to distinguish between players because of very small sample sizes. I’m looking forward to seeing which players level out and regress to the mean and which players are in for better and worse than expected seasons. We really want to make meaningful conclusions about these games, but it’s just too early. That said, aside from Chris Davis, here are a couple players I’m watching at the start of week two to see if they are candidates for early season standout status:
- Shin-Soo Choo
- Justin Upton
- Chase Utley
- Austin Jackson
None of those players are surprises, they just have my attention for now for various reasons. The first two are on new clubs, Utley looks healthy, and Jackson is a talented guy entering his prime on a great club.
Thanks for reading New English D this week and we look forward to talking baseball with you throughout the season.
The Morning Edition (April 6, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Josh Hamilton goes 0-4 with 2K as his Angels fall to the Rangers in his return to Arlignton
- Gordon and Hosmer lead the way as the Royals pummel the Phillies 13-4
- Zito outduels Westbrook in a 1-0 win over the Cards
- The Reds throw down the gauntlet in the NL with a 15-0 thumping of the Nats
What I’m Watching Today:
- Shelby Miller makes his second big league start as his Cards take on the Giants (4p Eastern)
- Julio Tehran tries to build on his hot spring against the Cubs (7p Eastern)
- Trevor Bauer makes his Tribe debut against Rays youngster Alex Cobb (7p Eastern)
- Clayton Kershaw goes for an encore in LA against AJ Burnett and the Bucs (9p Eastern)
The Big Question
- How long can Chris Davis keep this up?
In 18 PA this season Davis has 4 HR and a .600/.611/1.600 line. Obviously, that pace is a bit unsustainable, but at some point it just becomes ridiculous even in the short run. He’ll get to face Vance Worley tomorrow, against whom he has not recorded a hit in three trips to the plate. Davis, as it appears, will win the New English D “Race to 1.0 WAR” very shortly. He has 0.9 as of this writing. Today, MLB on Fox begins their final season in which they will terrorize our Saturdays by blacking games out. Starting in 2014, MLB.TV won’t go dark on Saturday afternoons. Luckily, the Tigers play the Yankees, so Fox will let me watch. Additionally of note, New English D will publish our usually Saturday edition of The Nine later today with a focus, likely, on ballpark food.
For your reading pleasure, below is a strike zone plot of Prince Fielder’s at bat against Boone Logan from Friday. Observe the location of the pitch that Fielder hit into the seats. A pitcher should reasonably be able to assume that if he misses the strike zone by that much that he should be safe from such outcomes.
So Shawn Kelley tried this when he faced Fielder in the 7th. I would not recommend this.
The Morning Edition (April 5, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Rays fall to the Orioles after Evan Longoria was called out in the middle of a rally for passing Ben Zobrist on the bases. Replay didn’t show conclusive evidence, but he appear to remain behind the runner
- Choo powers the Reds past the Angels as Chapman gets Pujols and Hamilton to the end the game with the tying run on second
- The Nats complete a three-game sweep of the Marlins to start the year
- Cliff Lee dominates the Braves in a 2-0 win
What I’m Watching Today:
- Josh Hamilton returns to Arlington for the first time as an Angel (2p Eastern)
- Wade Davis makes his Royals debut against the Phillies (4p Eastern)
- The Cardinals visit San Francisco in an NLCS rematch (435p Eastern)
- Josh Johnson makes his first AL start at home against the Red Sox (7p Eastern)
- Matt Moore begins what I expect to be a great sophomore season against the Indians in St. Pete (7p Eastern)
- Zach Greinke wears the Dodger blue for the first time (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Will early season bullpen blowups continue?
One of the things I was thinking about yesterday was a topic I’m sure we’ll be talking about for years. Harper or Trout? I’ve been on the Trout side of that debate for a while and I’m not ready to change my mind, but Bryce Harper just keeps doing things that make me like him. He’s fun to watch run the bases and he’s mashing early. Those two will be a lot of fun to watch this season. We’re just three or four games into the season, but it’s already been a fun year. Lots of games are going down to the wire and we’ve seen a lot of great starting pitching and late inning heroics. The Mets and Nats are leading the way on the hill and we’ll turn the league over and get another shot to see the aces again Saturday and Sunday.
The Morning Edition (April 4, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Matt Joyce walks-off in an 8-7 win over the Orioles
- Joey Votto, not to be outdone, hits a walk-off single not ten minutes later in a 5-4 win over the Halos
- Ervin Santana allows 3 HR in his Royals debut, loses to the White Sox
- Matt Harvey tosses 7 1-hit innings and fans 10 Padres in an 8-4 win
- Halladay strikes out 9, walks 3, and allows 5 runs in 3 1/3 innings in a loss to the Braves
What I’m Watching Today:
- Cliff Lee and Kris Medlen face off in Atlanta in the only premier pitching matchup of the day (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which #3/4 starters will give their teams a boost in the first week?
The early season is a great time for hilarious quirks of small sample sizes. Those of you who follow me on Twitter know that yesterday I was abuzz about Yu Darvish’s -0.27 FIP. In other words, FIP thinks his strikeout rate, walk rate, homerun rate, and IFFB rate should yield outcomes that literally take runs away from the opposing team. That is quite impressive. Another sample size issue I’m tracking is which player is the first past 1.0 WAR. As I write this, Darvish’s 0.6 is the closest, but on average we wouldn’t expect to see it happen until we were about 10-20 games into the season. I think my money will be on Harper. Much of what happened last night can be encapsulated in the lines above, but yesterday was the first day in which all 30 teams were in action and the benefits of that were reaped by those of us watching around 10pm. I really missed watching MLB Network go back and forth as so many games went down to the wire. Man, baseball is great and I’m never sleeping again.
The Morning Edition (April 3, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Yu Darvish nearly twirls the 24th perfect game in MLB history in his first start of the season in Houston.
- Robinson Cano fired Scott Boras and hired Jay-Z to be his agent. That was not my attempt at humor, but rather something that actually occurred. This should be a sign that Cano plans to stay in New York.
- Arencibia struggled to handle Dickey’s knuckleball in a 4-1 loss to the Tribe.
- The Orioles exploded for 5 in the 7th to beat the Rays 7-4. Price gave up 2 runs in 6 innings.
What I’m Watching Today:
- Halladay makes his season debut against the Braves (7p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey looks to pick up where last season ended against the Padres (7p Eastern)
- Lincecum and Beckett duel in a battle of pitchers in need of a bounce back season (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will the pitchers coming off bad seasons and injuries fare as the open the season?
The big story last night was obviously Yu Darvish who flirted with perfection in Houston against the Astros. He struck out 14 in 8 2/3 innings and didn’t allow a baserunner until there were two outs in the 9th. The Rangers ace looked dominant even if it was against the league’s worst team. His pitch count was elevated early on due to the numerous strikeouts, but he increased his efficiency in the middle innings to temper the worry about a potential pitch count meets perfect game quandary. Bowa and Ripkin on MLB Tonight said they wouldn’t let him go more than 105 in his first start, but Padres fan and host Matt Vasgersian reminded them that some teams fans have never seen a no-hitter and those shouldn’t be cast aside lightly. It was a fun night staying up with Darvish and his quest, even if it ultimately came up short. We’ve only seen 23 perfect games in MLB history and it’s always great to follow along with one, but it’s actually even rarer to see some lose it to the final batter. Darvish becomes just the 11th pitcher to lose a perfect game to the 27th batter. He was masterful and clearly in midseason form in what made for the most exciting game of the young season (Take that Kershaw!). Man, I can’t wait to see Verlander face the Astros. It’s good to have baseball back.
The Morning Edition (April 2, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Bryce Harper backed a great performance from Stephen Strasburg with 2 HR
- Clayton Kershaw twirled a CGSO and homered
- Justin Upton homered in his Braves debut
- The Brewers and Angels both won in extras
What I’m Watching Today:
- David Price begins his Cy Young defense against the O’s in Tampa (3p Eastern)
- The new look Blue Jays begin their season behind R.A. Dickey (7p Eastern)
- Darvish looks to help the Rangers against the undefeated Astros (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What will Hyun-Jin Ryu’s debut look like in LA? (10p Eastern)
It was an exciting Opening Day and today’s abbreviated schedule looks to pact a slightly less forceful punch despite some exciting talent toeing the rubber. I’ll have my eye on the Blue Jays, especially to see if they can get off on the right foot. Check back each and every morning for musings from around the league. As the season gets a little further along, this will become a place for more analysis and debate.
New English D 