The Morning Edition (April 8, 2013)
From Last Night:
- R.A. Dickey, David Price, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, and Stephen Strasburg all get hit hard in losing efforts
- Will Middlebrooks hits 3 HR in 13-0 thumping of the Jays
- Dayan Viciedo walks off on Kameron Loe in the 10 inning as the White Sox beat the Mariners
- Marlon Byrd wins it for the Mets in the bottom of the 9th against the Marlins
- The Twins silence Chris Davis and beat the O’s
- Rockies beat the Friars 9-1, improve to 5-1 on the season
- Darvish and Weaver surrender runs early in Arlington
What I’m Watching Today:
- The Reds and Cards square off in an early NL Central showdown (4p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces Roy Halladay in a battle of pitchers going in opposite directions (7p Eastern)
- The Marlins play their first home game after the winter firesale against Paul Maholm and the Braves (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Was Halladay’s weird outing last week a sign of things to come or blip on the road back to dominance?
Sunday was not a good day for the College of Aces as Dickey, Price, Hamels, Cain, and Straburg all gave up 6 or more earned runs in relatively short outings. As I’m writing this, Darvish and Weaver have given up five runs between them in just two innings, so either one of them could join the party. Sabathia shut down the Tigers and Verlander was good against the Yankees save for one bad pitch. It’s hard to imagine that on a day in which so many of baseball’s best starters took to the hill that so few good pitching performances occurred. I toyed around with the idea of developing an AceStart% statistic that measured what percentage of aces pitched on a given day, and I would guess that Sunday would be the highest non-Opening Day of the season as far as that goes, but it sure didn’t look like it. 148 runs were scored in the 14 games that are final at this point. It was not the day of great pitching I hoped for, but hey, that’s what makes baseball great. On any given day, any team can make a great pitcher look silly.
In a shocking turn of events, however, it was not Chris Davis who won New English D’s “Race to 1.0 WAR,” but rather the A’s shortstop, Jed Lowrie. Mr. Lowrie has 30 plate appearances in his team’s first 7 games and has 3 HR and a .500/.567/1.000 line to go with his .645 wOBA and 326 wRC+. If you had Jed Lowrie in the first to 1.0 WAR pool, come claim your prize. It’s a unicorn. Lowrie, at this moment, is on pace for 23.1 WAR. That would be a record, if you’re curious, topping Babe Ruth‘s 1923 season (.393/.545/.764) by a full 8 wins. Lowrie is a good player, but I’m willing to take the under on that one.
The Morning Edition (April 7, 2013)
From Last Night:
- BJ Upton hits a game tying homerun in the 9th inning against the Cubs, Justin Upton follows him with a walk off
- The Nats top the Reds in 11 innings
- Albert Pujols’ big day powers the Angels past the Rangers
- Kershaw blanks the Pirates over 7 innings in LA
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lester and Dickey face off in Toronto (1p Eastern)
- Marlins prospect Jose Fernandez makes his MLB debut at Citi Field (1p Eastern)
- Strasburg looks to follow his excellent opening day against the Reds (1p Eastern)
- Darvish faces the Angels in his near perfecto encore (8p Eastern)
- Lots of other aces in action including: Sabathia, Verlander, Cueto, Samardizija, Shields, Hamels, Price, Sale, Wainwright, Cain, and Weaver
The Big Question:
- What first week standouts will carry their success into week two of the season?
The first week of the MLB season is always exciting but it is often hard to distinguish between players because of very small sample sizes. I’m looking forward to seeing which players level out and regress to the mean and which players are in for better and worse than expected seasons. We really want to make meaningful conclusions about these games, but it’s just too early. That said, aside from Chris Davis, here are a couple players I’m watching at the start of week two to see if they are candidates for early season standout status:
- Shin-Soo Choo
- Justin Upton
- Chase Utley
- Austin Jackson
None of those players are surprises, they just have my attention for now for various reasons. The first two are on new clubs, Utley looks healthy, and Jackson is a talented guy entering his prime on a great club.
Thanks for reading New English D this week and we look forward to talking baseball with you throughout the season.
The Morning Edition (April 6, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Josh Hamilton goes 0-4 with 2K as his Angels fall to the Rangers in his return to Arlignton
- Gordon and Hosmer lead the way as the Royals pummel the Phillies 13-4
- Zito outduels Westbrook in a 1-0 win over the Cards
- The Reds throw down the gauntlet in the NL with a 15-0 thumping of the Nats
What I’m Watching Today:
- Shelby Miller makes his second big league start as his Cards take on the Giants (4p Eastern)
- Julio Tehran tries to build on his hot spring against the Cubs (7p Eastern)
- Trevor Bauer makes his Tribe debut against Rays youngster Alex Cobb (7p Eastern)
- Clayton Kershaw goes for an encore in LA against AJ Burnett and the Bucs (9p Eastern)
The Big Question
- How long can Chris Davis keep this up?
In 18 PA this season Davis has 4 HR and a .600/.611/1.600 line. Obviously, that pace is a bit unsustainable, but at some point it just becomes ridiculous even in the short run. He’ll get to face Vance Worley tomorrow, against whom he has not recorded a hit in three trips to the plate. Davis, as it appears, will win the New English D “Race to 1.0 WAR” very shortly. He has 0.9 as of this writing. Today, MLB on Fox begins their final season in which they will terrorize our Saturdays by blacking games out. Starting in 2014, MLB.TV won’t go dark on Saturday afternoons. Luckily, the Tigers play the Yankees, so Fox will let me watch. Additionally of note, New English D will publish our usually Saturday edition of The Nine later today with a focus, likely, on ballpark food.
For your reading pleasure, below is a strike zone plot of Prince Fielder’s at bat against Boone Logan from Friday. Observe the location of the pitch that Fielder hit into the seats. A pitcher should reasonably be able to assume that if he misses the strike zone by that much that he should be safe from such outcomes.
So Shawn Kelley tried this when he faced Fielder in the 7th. I would not recommend this.
The Morning Edition (April 5, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Rays fall to the Orioles after Evan Longoria was called out in the middle of a rally for passing Ben Zobrist on the bases. Replay didn’t show conclusive evidence, but he appear to remain behind the runner
- Choo powers the Reds past the Angels as Chapman gets Pujols and Hamilton to the end the game with the tying run on second
- The Nats complete a three-game sweep of the Marlins to start the year
- Cliff Lee dominates the Braves in a 2-0 win
What I’m Watching Today:
- Josh Hamilton returns to Arlington for the first time as an Angel (2p Eastern)
- Wade Davis makes his Royals debut against the Phillies (4p Eastern)
- The Cardinals visit San Francisco in an NLCS rematch (435p Eastern)
- Josh Johnson makes his first AL start at home against the Red Sox (7p Eastern)
- Matt Moore begins what I expect to be a great sophomore season against the Indians in St. Pete (7p Eastern)
- Zach Greinke wears the Dodger blue for the first time (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Will early season bullpen blowups continue?
One of the things I was thinking about yesterday was a topic I’m sure we’ll be talking about for years. Harper or Trout? I’ve been on the Trout side of that debate for a while and I’m not ready to change my mind, but Bryce Harper just keeps doing things that make me like him. He’s fun to watch run the bases and he’s mashing early. Those two will be a lot of fun to watch this season. We’re just three or four games into the season, but it’s already been a fun year. Lots of games are going down to the wire and we’ve seen a lot of great starting pitching and late inning heroics. The Mets and Nats are leading the way on the hill and we’ll turn the league over and get another shot to see the aces again Saturday and Sunday.
The Morning Edition (April 4, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Matt Joyce walks-off in an 8-7 win over the Orioles
- Joey Votto, not to be outdone, hits a walk-off single not ten minutes later in a 5-4 win over the Halos
- Ervin Santana allows 3 HR in his Royals debut, loses to the White Sox
- Matt Harvey tosses 7 1-hit innings and fans 10 Padres in an 8-4 win
- Halladay strikes out 9, walks 3, and allows 5 runs in 3 1/3 innings in a loss to the Braves
What I’m Watching Today:
- Cliff Lee and Kris Medlen face off in Atlanta in the only premier pitching matchup of the day (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which #3/4 starters will give their teams a boost in the first week?
The early season is a great time for hilarious quirks of small sample sizes. Those of you who follow me on Twitter know that yesterday I was abuzz about Yu Darvish’s -0.27 FIP. In other words, FIP thinks his strikeout rate, walk rate, homerun rate, and IFFB rate should yield outcomes that literally take runs away from the opposing team. That is quite impressive. Another sample size issue I’m tracking is which player is the first past 1.0 WAR. As I write this, Darvish’s 0.6 is the closest, but on average we wouldn’t expect to see it happen until we were about 10-20 games into the season. I think my money will be on Harper. Much of what happened last night can be encapsulated in the lines above, but yesterday was the first day in which all 30 teams were in action and the benefits of that were reaped by those of us watching around 10pm. I really missed watching MLB Network go back and forth as so many games went down to the wire. Man, baseball is great and I’m never sleeping again.
The Morning Edition (April 3, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Yu Darvish nearly twirls the 24th perfect game in MLB history in his first start of the season in Houston.
- Robinson Cano fired Scott Boras and hired Jay-Z to be his agent. That was not my attempt at humor, but rather something that actually occurred. This should be a sign that Cano plans to stay in New York.
- Arencibia struggled to handle Dickey’s knuckleball in a 4-1 loss to the Tribe.
- The Orioles exploded for 5 in the 7th to beat the Rays 7-4. Price gave up 2 runs in 6 innings.
What I’m Watching Today:
- Halladay makes his season debut against the Braves (7p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey looks to pick up where last season ended against the Padres (7p Eastern)
- Lincecum and Beckett duel in a battle of pitchers in need of a bounce back season (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will the pitchers coming off bad seasons and injuries fare as the open the season?
The big story last night was obviously Yu Darvish who flirted with perfection in Houston against the Astros. He struck out 14 in 8 2/3 innings and didn’t allow a baserunner until there were two outs in the 9th. The Rangers ace looked dominant even if it was against the league’s worst team. His pitch count was elevated early on due to the numerous strikeouts, but he increased his efficiency in the middle innings to temper the worry about a potential pitch count meets perfect game quandary. Bowa and Ripkin on MLB Tonight said they wouldn’t let him go more than 105 in his first start, but Padres fan and host Matt Vasgersian reminded them that some teams fans have never seen a no-hitter and those shouldn’t be cast aside lightly. It was a fun night staying up with Darvish and his quest, even if it ultimately came up short. We’ve only seen 23 perfect games in MLB history and it’s always great to follow along with one, but it’s actually even rarer to see some lose it to the final batter. Darvish becomes just the 11th pitcher to lose a perfect game to the 27th batter. He was masterful and clearly in midseason form in what made for the most exciting game of the young season (Take that Kershaw!). Man, I can’t wait to see Verlander face the Astros. It’s good to have baseball back.
The Morning Edition (April 2, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Bryce Harper backed a great performance from Stephen Strasburg with 2 HR
- Clayton Kershaw twirled a CGSO and homered
- Justin Upton homered in his Braves debut
- The Brewers and Angels both won in extras
What I’m Watching Today:
- David Price begins his Cy Young defense against the O’s in Tampa (3p Eastern)
- The new look Blue Jays begin their season behind R.A. Dickey (7p Eastern)
- Darvish looks to help the Rangers against the undefeated Astros (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What will Hyun-Jin Ryu’s debut look like in LA? (10p Eastern)
It was an exciting Opening Day and today’s abbreviated schedule looks to pact a slightly less forceful punch despite some exciting talent toeing the rubber. I’ll have my eye on the Blue Jays, especially to see if they can get off on the right foot. Check back each and every morning for musings from around the league. As the season gets a little further along, this will become a place for more analysis and debate.
New English D 