How Was The Game? (September 2, 2014)
Just long enough.
Tigers 4, Indians 2
Tuesday was all about strikeouts and leaving men on base. Kyle Lobstein (2 GS, 17 IP, 3.18 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 0.2 fWAR) pitched into the 6th after allowing a two run homer in the first and threw up 10 strikeouts along the way. Carrasco let the Tigers grab some hits but he also stranded a whole bunch of them via the strikeout. It was a close game but there were tons of chances for both teams and sadly, Avila might be out for a while with a concussion. If we’re chronicling managerial mistakes he let Holaday hit in a bad spot despite having a third catcher, he used Carrera to pinch hit for Suarez, then he didn’t run for Hunter and used Moya to run for Cabrera. Fortunately, Martinez the lesser came to the plate with a chance in the 9th and did his thing, sending a ball out to center to give the Tigers a two run lead. Nathan got the 9th and only allowed one runner before securing the win. Justin Verlander (27 GS, 171.1 IP, 4.68 ERA, 3.92 ERA, 2.5 fWAR) goes Wednesday.
The Moment: JD Martinez hits a no doubt go-ahead bomb in the 9th.
Tigers Preach Changeup, David Price Listens
One of my favorite New English D pieces last year pointed out how the Tigers seemed to be increasing their use of the changeup rotation wide. It wasn’t clear if the changeup directive was coming from the front office, Jeff Jones, or Alex Avila, but it sure looked like changeups were on the menu in Detroit. Normally, we don’t do small sample analysis with predictive interpretations here, but I think there is enough of a track record to call your attention to this: David Price is throwing way more changeups as a Tiger.
It’s only been six starts compared to 23 in Tampa, but the difference is incredible and the organizational history suggests it’s probably not a fluke. Let’s take a peak:
| Season | Team | FA% | FT% | FC% | SL% | CU% | KC% | CH% |
| 2008 | Rays | 75.1 | 20.6 | 4.3 | ||||
| 2009 | Rays | 71.3 | 3.3 | 19.9 | 5.5 | |||
| 2010 | Rays | 56.8 | 17.5 | 3.4 | 15.6 | 6.6 | ||
| 2011 | Rays | 36.7 | 34.1 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 11.1 | ||
| 2012 | Rays | 25.2 | 35.8 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 11.2 | 10.9 | |
| 2013 | Rays | 19.6 | 33.7 | 17.7 | 0.6 | 11.5 | 16.9 | |
| 2014 | 2 Teams | 15.3 | 42.1 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 19.5 | |
| 2014 | Rays | 15.1 | 42.2 | 14.1 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 17.6 | |
| 2014 | Tigers | 16.1 | 41.7 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 27.8 |
These are the PITCHf/x classifications. Note that there are three lines for 2014. The first one is season totals with his Rays and Tigers numbers broken down further. He’s backing off his cutter and his breaking ball in favor of way more changeups. Way more.
Over his six starts in Detroit he’s throwing a changeup 28% of the time after doing so only 18% of the time in TB. Now we know PITCHf/x can get the classifications wrong, but according to Brooks Baseball’s manually tagged pitches, 17.3% of his pitches in TB were changeups and 28% in Detroit. In other words, this is not one of those freaky classification problems.
Funny thing is, he’s not getting more whiffs or more swings with the changeup in Detroit. He is, however, dramatically reducing the quality of contact. We don’t know that for sure, but ISO against his changeup in TB was .182 this year and it’s .038 in Detroit.
The percentage of changeups is way up against lefties, going from about 3% to close to 15% with a 10% jump in whiff rate to boot. The power is down against righties and lefties and there is a usage jump from 21 to 32% against RHH. It’s a universal increase in his use of the pitch.
And it’s working. Looking at FanGraphs’ PITCHf/x pitch values per 100 pitches, which simply tell you how well a pitcher has limited production against those pitches (positive is good, league average is 0), his changeup has become crazy valuable. Same chart as above, this time with pitch values:
| Season | Team | wFA/C | wFT/C | wFC/C | wSL/C | wCU/C | wKC/C | wCH/C |
| 2008 | Rays | 1.35 | 1.48 | 3.02 | ||||
| 2009 | Rays | 0.57 | 0.32 | -2.60 | 1.67 | |||
| 2010 | Rays | 0.54 | 2.11 | 0.99 | 0 | 1.13 | ||
| 2011 | Rays | 0.39 | 0.79 | 0.28 | -1.5 | 2.51 | ||
| 2012 | Rays | 0.86 | 1.03 | 1.83 | -0.22 | 2.02 | 1.12 | |
| 2013 | Rays | 0.75 | 1.16 | 0.02 | 4.30 | -1.88 | 1.86 | |
| 2014 | 2 Teams | 0.17 | 0.61 | 1.26 | -0.61 | 2.01 | 0.62 | |
| 2014 | Rays | 0.41 | 0.91 | 1.49 | -0.61 | 2.15 | -0.35 | |
| 2014 | Tigers | -0.77 | -0.66 | -0.2 | 1.68 | 3.2 |
Look at that huge leap in value from the pitch. Incredible.
Now I wouldn’t take these results are predictive. It’s only a small number of innings and teams will adjust. But Price coming to Detroit and completely changing his mix of pitches to both righties and lefties can’t be a coincidence. For now, it’s working like a charm and he’s just another in a long line of Tigers who get the most out of their offspeed pitch.
How Was The Game? (September 1, 2014)
Powerful.
Tigers 12, Indians 1
The Indians had a late night and were greeted by a powerful Tigers lineup that made it easy on David Price (29 GS, 210.1 IP, 3.25 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 5.0 fWAR) who gave up an early run and settled in for seven solid innings. The bats were the story, however, as the Tigers chased Corey Kluber with five early runs that came on three big home runs from the middle of the order. But the Tigers weren’t done, adding seven additional runs in the late innings thanks to another Cabrera bomb, some hit parading, and then an assault from the Tigers recent minor league callups, Perez, Moya, and Collins. The big win gets the series off on the right foot and sets them up for Tuesday behind Kyle Lobstein (1 GS, 11.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 0.1 fWAR).
The Moment: Perez, Moya, and Collins put on a show as the Seawol…Tigers run away on the Tribe.
How Was The Game? (August 31, 2014)
A defense that was offensive.
White Sox 6, Tigers 2
Rick Porcello (26 GS, 180 IP, 3.10 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 3.0 fWAR) was dealt a rough hand on Sunday as his defense played like an even worse version of themselves. They committed four errors, an error that wasn’t called an error, and made at least three poor defensive plays that don’t qualify as errors. So Porcello went 6.2 innings and gave up six runs, but three were earned and probably only two qualified as his fault. He walked one and punched out seven along the way, doing his best to hold the game together for the bats. They grabbed a pair in the 6th but couldn’t do more and coasted to a series split courtesy of embarrassing defense. It’ll be David Price (28 GS, 203.1 IP, 3.32 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 4.7 fWAR) trying to bounce back against the Indians after his worst start last time out.
The Moment: Davis and Kinsler hit back to back double to wake the offense in the 6th.
How Was The Game? (August 30, 2014 – Game 2)
Tigers baseball.
Tigers 8, White Sox 4
Baseball is pretty predictable most of the time. Usually guys like Max Scherzer allow six runs and guys like Kyle Ryan (1 GS, 6 IP, 0.00 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 0.1 fWAR) allow zero. Hey wait a minute, that’s not right at all. Ryan wasn’t flashing brilliant stuff, but he kept the White Sox off balance for six innings and allowed no runs while his team jumped out to a 5-0 lead courtesy of a pair in the 3rd and three in the fourth. The 8th inning went all disaster movie on us, as the Tigers used three pitchers and gave up four runs to make it painfully close. They grabbed three runs of their own in the top of the 9th, though, thanks to an all around effort and gave Nathan plenty of cushion. It’s Rick Porcello (25 GS, 173.1 IP, 3.06 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 2.7 fWAR) for the series on Sunday.
The Moment: Kinsler punches one through the infield to add runs in the 4th.
How Was The Game? (August 30, 2014 – Game 1)
A high scoring duel?
White Sox 6, Tigers 3
This one started in a pretty amazing way with the Tigers scoring three runs before they made two outs courtesy of home runs from Kinsler and Martinez. When you can start 3-0 against Chris Sale, you’re happy, but he remembered he was Sale and Max Scherzer (28 GS, 187.2 IP, 3.26 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 4.9 fWAR) fell victim to his own bad inning and HR problems. Max’s final line was 6.2 innings, 9 hits, 6 runs, 0 walks, and 11 strikeouts, so you have some sense of how tough he was to hit during the parts of the game in which he forgot he was Scherzer. Between Scherzer and Sale there were all kinds of strikeouts and all kinds of strikes. It might have been one of the higher scoring pitching duels you’ll see as both starters controlled the story, even if they both stepped in it during one inning. Three hours off and then Kyle Ryan (MLB Debut) makes his debut.
The Moment: Kinsler and VMart get to Sale for HR in the first.
How Was The Game? (August 29, 2014)
Comfortable.
Tigers 7, White Sox 1
The first inning was a little dicey and then, Justin Verlander (27 GS, 171.1 IP, 4.68 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 2.5 fWAR) sort of started to look like Justin Verlander again. It wasn’t perfect, but he twirled seven innings of one run ball that featured eight strikeouts and two walks. For 2014 Verlander, that’s a gem. The pitches were better as well for most of the game and he showed some signs of life while also getting positive results. Not a terrifying opponent, but a good outing none the less. The story of the offense tonight was a chaotic and glorious 4th inning in which the Sox made two errors that opened the door to five runs. It was a collective effort all around and the Tigers set themselves up nicely going into the big Saturday duel between Max Scherzer (27 GS, 181 IP, 3.13 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 4.8 fWAR) and Chris Sale in Game One.
The Moment: Kinsler and Hunter connect on a perfect relay in the 2nd.
Miguel Cabrera Gets Defensive
I don’t need to tell you Miguel Cabrera’s having a down year at the plate, we assume, primarily due to a couple of nagging health issues. After four straight seasons of a 160 wRC+ or better, he’s trolling down at 137 in 2014. Primarily, his power is way down. His injuries are costing him offensive value. We’re probably talking about a difference of more than two wins of offensive deduction this year compared to his recent seasons. That’s rough. You know what isn’t rough? His defense.
Wait. What?
That’s right, Miguel Cabrera’s move back over to first base has turned out well, as most of us suspected it might. Cabrera’s big deficiency is his range. The harm is good. The hands are good. The baseball instincts are terrific. He just can’t move very well. You know who doesn’t have to move as much as a third baseman? A first baseman!
Up front, it’s important to be aware of the variation between the two positions in terms of what constitutes good performance. A perfectly average 3B is considered to be about 15 runs better than a perfectly average 1B. You don’t need to take that as gospel, but it’s a good estimate. Even accounting for that, Cabrera is having a better season than last year. And a better season than back when he played first base before.
I don’t want to get into the positional adjustment and Cabrera’s total value. Let’s talk about his performance at 1B in 2014.
He’s played 929.1 innings. He has -1 DRS, which is a career best so far. His UZR is 4.6 (UZR/150 of 4.9), which basically matches his solid 2009 season at 1B. He’s turning more balls in his zone into outs than ever (slightly). He’s started 13 double plays and made 15 scoops. And he’s made fewer errors, if you care about that.
One thing I want to point out is Miggy’s Inside Edge data. They categorize the difficulty of all balls hit to a fielder. Their buckets are 0%, 1-10%, 10-40%, 40-60%, 60-90%, and 90-100% based on the likelihood that the ball should be fielded.
Obviously, he hasn’t made a 0% play because by definition no one can. He’s 0/8 on 1-10%, 0/5 on 10-40%, and 2/5 on 40-60% plays. That doesn’t look great. I mean, it’s not bad. But it’s not great. Know what’s great? Cabrera is 19/20 on 60-90% plays. That’s a 95% success rate! That’s awesome.
Only two 1B with 500+ innings have a higher percentage and they’re 8/8 and 10/10 rather than 19/20. He’s middle of the pack in 90-100% plays, but he’s 185/190.
First, you can see how rare tough plays are at first base. There have been 8,227 balls hit to 1B according to IE. 80% are easy plays. Cabrera makes an average number of those plays and the 7.5% of plays that are 60-90% plays? Cabrera’s been killing those.
At third base, more like 72% of plays are routine plays and there are about 40% more chances at third than first overall. In other words, there are more plays at 3B and they are tougher on average. That makes moving to first base perfect for Cabrera. He’s great at plays he can reach!
Spray charts? Sure. Here are the 60-90 plays and the 40-60 plays.
First base demands less range and values quality hands and such, which makes it a nice fit. By the numbers, he’s been one of the best handful of defenders at first this year by UZR and average by DRS. Range isn’t his game, but he’s vacuuming up stuff near him. We know defensive numbers aren’t perfectly precise, but we can’t exactly do anything other than go off what data we do have.
Particularly, from a scouting perspective, Cabrera turns the 3-6-3 double very well. It’s a small thing overall, but it’s a nice change from Fielder. Cabrera’s next 3-6-3 will set a new career high of six, in fact.
I don’t think we can say for sure we know Cabrera is and will continue to be a good defensive 1B. I think we can say that he’s much better suited for 1B this year relative to 3B and he’s lived up to that given the data that we do have. He’s making routine plays at an average clip and he’s making slightly more difficult pays at a high rate. Sample sizes matter, but if Miggy’s going to have a down year at the plate, at least he’s hanging in there on the other side of the ball.
How Was The Game? (August 28, 2014)
A nice recovery
Tigers 2, Yankees 2
Kyle Lobstein (1 GS, 11.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 0.1 fWAR) gave the Tigers a much needed quality outing, going six innings while allowing two runs on four hits and a walk as he gave the Tigers a chance to stay in the game. The teams traded runs in the 2nd and 3rd and then the Yankees took the lead in the 4th before the Tigers got one right back in the 5th. From there they went scoreless into the 9th. Coke found himself in a jam and almost lost it before McCann’s fly ball hooked fouled and he followed up by striking him out to end the inning. The Tigers put two on to start the 9th and then with two outs Avila slammed one off the fence to win it. The team will call on Justin Verlander (26 GS, 164.1 IP, 4.82 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 2.2 fWAR) on Friday.
The Moment: Avila walks off with two outs in the 9th!
How Was The Game? (August 27, 2014)
Surprising.
Yankees 8, Tigers 4
David Price (28 GS, 203.1 IP, 3.32 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 4.7 fWAR) had one of the worst starts in MLB history tonight if you care about innings, hits, and runs. Only two other pitchers in history have failed to go more than two innings while allowing at least 8 runs and 12 hits as Price did on this night. He allowed nine straight hits to start the third inning and was pulled from the game after 68 pitches. Some hard contact, some BABIP. No fun. The bats gave it a little go with a bomb from VMart and a triple from Nick to go along with a little two out rally in the 9th, but it was nowhere near enough to close the gap. The Tigers will have a shot to win the series behind Kyle Lobstein (0 GS, 5.2 IP, 4.76 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 0.0 fWAR) who will make his first MLB start on Thursday.
The Moment: VMart hits his career high 26th HR.
New English D 