How Was The Game? (July 19, 2014 – Game 2)
Predictable.
Indians 5, Tigers 2
Max Scherzer (20 GS, 132 IP, 3.34 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 2.9 fWAR) was supposed to calm things down, save the bullpen, and get the Tigers back on track in the nightcap, and he only sort of did that. Max managed to allow just two runs (both solo HR to Chris Dickerson, what?!), but he walked four and only struck out four and labored through 5.2 innings in almost 120 pitches. The offense was good enough to even the score, capped off by a huge triple from Jackson in the 7th, but the Tigers gave Joe Nathan a tie game and you can’t give Joe Nathan anything resembling a close game at this point. He allowed two runners and was asked to IBB Brantley before allowing a bases clearing ball up the gap from Santana to make it 5-2. Torii ripped a double in the 9th, but the Tigers were unable to rally back as they lost the DH, the first three in the series and their fourth in a row. They will try to salvage one with Drew Smyly (15 GS, 87.2 IP, 4.00 ERA, 4.46 FIP, 0.7 fWAR) going Sunday.
The Moment: Jackson swats a game-tying triple in the 7th.
How Was The Game? (July 19, 2014 – Game 1)
A nice moment, even if it didn’t end well.
Indians 6, Tigers 2
Drew VerHagen (1 GS, 5 IP, 5.40 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 0.1 fWAR) kicked off his MLB debut in style with a pair of strikeouts and four to his first six batters, and he was in great shape through four. The Indians got to him a little in the 5th, picking up three runs before pulling him in favor of the pen for the final four innings. The Tigers grabbed a run of their own in the 5th but the bullpen gave a run back in the 7th and two more in the 9th to set up a 9th inning confrontation with Corey Kluber looking for a complete game. The Tigers grabbed a run off Kluber and chased him when Castellanos doubled but the Tigers could not complete the rally. Luckily, the Tigers will get a chance to turn things around quickly with Max Scherzer (19 GS, 126.1 IP, 3.35 ERA, 2.96 FIP, 3.1 fWAR) on the hill in the nightcap.
The Moment: VerHagen fans the first two hitters he faces in his MLB career.
How Was The Game? (July 18, 2014)
Two-thirds great.
Indians 9, Tigers 3
After a few weird outings, Anibal Sanchez (17 GS, 100.2 IP, 3.22 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 2.7 fWAR) looked much more like himself during the first game from the All-Star break, unfortunately the Indians attack came all at once. Sanchez cruised through the first six innings and even after allowing three singles and a walk without registering an out in the 7th, he still finished the day with seven strikeouts, one walk, and six hits to go with his four runs. The strikeouts were an excellent sign and the only thing that hurt him was that four of the seven baserunners clustered together and then, you know, the bullpen opened the door for the remaining runners. The Tigers threatened heavily in the 3rd but scored only one run and grabbed two in the 4th, but didn’t add on or rally back to mitigate the Indians 7 run 7th. The Tigers won’t have long to stew over this one, as they’ll play two on Saturday with Drew VerHagen (MLB Debut) making his MLB debut in Game 1.
The Moment: Jackson makes a tremendous running catch over his shoulder in left center.
Where Have Miguel Cabrera’s Home Runs Gone?
I know there’s great irony in posting such a story the day after Miguel Cabrera hit a home run in the All-Star Game against Adam Wainwright in a very difficult park in which to hit home runs, but it’s a necessary post and I’m sure glad I didn’t run it on Tuesday right before Cabrera launched the ball deep to left field.
So far this season, Miguel Cabrera has hit 14 HR in 387 PA. For most human beings, that’s a very nice first half and puts him on pace for close to 30 over a full season. But Miguel Cabrera is Miguel Cabrera. He’s only hit 30 or fewer bombs in a season twice. Don’t get me wrong, he’s still on pace for an excellent season, but the absence of home runs is interesting, even if it isn’t concerning. Right now, he’s hitting a home run in about 3.4% of his trips to the plate, which is the lowest mark since his half season callup in 2003. And plate appearances probably isn’t the right denominator here because we’re not really concerned about all of his trips to the plate, just the ones in which he puts the ball in play. His strikeouts are fine and his walks, while down compared to last year, are still within his career norms. Let’s look at home runs on contact:
When Cabrera puts the ball in play, he’s hitting a home run about 5% of the time this year, compared to numbers that typically sit between 7 and 10 percent. His batted ball profile doesn’t seem to be much different and the actual frequency of hard contact remains pretty consistent. Although, there is some indication that the quality of contact on fly balls has diminished a bit this season, if you look at indicators like fly ball distance and other, less public, data.
So we can chalk most of this problem up to a much lower HR/FB%. And it is much lower this year than in the past:
Now what we want to know is if this low HR/FB% is a weird blip or something of an actual trend. It wouldn’t be shocking if Cabrera hit for a little bit less power this year while recovering from offseason surgery. We know he started slow, either because of the injury or because he needed extra time to get his swing back after it, but even since April 22, his HR/FB% is still just 14%, even though he has a 159 wRC+ in that time span.
Cabrera’s saving grace is that those home runs aren’t turning into outs, they’re turning into doubles. He’s on pace for more than 60 doubles and the projection systems think 57 is more reasonable. Either way, that’s a career high by a substantial margin. We often say that young hitters will see their doubles turn into home runs, well the opposite is true for Cabrera right now.
It’s always smart to bet on regression to the mean and that means Cabrera will be fine. Maybe he’s still healing, but those reports are kind of mixed. I don’t think there’s an obvious answer to this question. He’s not enough different to be worried but things are different enough to take notice. Let’s peer into his ISO, and specifically notice the way inside pitch.
He’s not hitting for as much power on pitches just off the plate inside and that used to be his calling card. That might be a sign of aging, a sign of the injury, or random noise. It’s too early to say, but let’s keep an eye on it and see if pitches attempt to exploit it…and if he makes them pay.
How Was The Game? (July 13, 2014)
One that got away.
Royals 5, Tigers 2
With one game left before the break, the Tigers were poised to sweep the Royals in KC and wind up 8.5 games up in the division. Justin Verlander (20 GS, 129 IP, 4.88 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 1.9 fWAR) looked very solid early, retiring 9 of the first 10 batters he faced and keeping the Royals off the board for the first 6 innings but a couple of clean hits and a few BABIP singles opened the door in the 7th by the time the bullpen had done their thing, the Tigers were trailing 5-2 and Verlander had allowed four runs. He punched out only three and walked just one, but generally performed well for the majority of the game. These are the kind of outings that wouldn’t stress you out if you weren’t thinking about the ones where he actually struggled as well. The bats nabbed a couple of runs and JD Martinez played some nifty defense to cap off his great half, but the Tigers couldn’t rally in the late innings and end the first half with a 53-38 record and a 6.5 game lead in the AL Central. We’ll see a few Tigers in Minnesota on Tuesday and then Anibal Sanchez (16 GS, 94.2 IP, 3.04 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 2.4 fWAR) taking the ball on Friday.
The Moment: JD Martinez makes a pair of terrific grab s in RF.
How Was The Game? (July 12, 2014)
Great, for those who were allowed to see it.
Tigers 5, Royals 1
Rick Porcello (18 GS, 119.1 IP, 3.39 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 1.7 fWAR) went seven innings and gave up one run tonight and it didn’t even feel like a particularly great start because this is starting to become the norm. He allowed six hits and three walks while punching out three, but he got himself out of some jams with some timing ground balls and well placed strikeouts. They grabbed a run in the 3rd and 4th and then unleashed their secret 9th inning weapon, JD Martinez, who homered to make it 3-1, who was followed shortly by Avila launching a 2-run shot to right center. The bullpen did the trick and the Tigers locked up the series and nothing worse than a 6.5 game lead heading into the break with one game to play. If Justin Verlander (19 GS, 122.2 IP, 4,84 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 1.7 fWAR) leads them to victory on Sunday, they’ll have a bigger division lead at the break than they did in 1984.
The Moment: Martinez and Avila add big insurance runs with 9th inning homers.
How Was The Game? (July 11, 2014)
A throwback.
Tigers 2, Royals 1
Remember last year when every game with the Royals was super close? Tonight brought back memories. Both teams grabbed a run in the first and a Miguel Cabrera sac fly in the 3rd ended up being the difference. Anibal Sanchez (16 GS, 94.2 IP, 3.04 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 2.4 fWAR) looked a little more like himself across seven innings, allowing eight hits and no walks while striking out three and allowing just the one run. He allowed some hits, but the hard contact and weird lack of command seemed to have left him this time around. It certainly helps to play the Royals, who are afraid of the three true outcomes. The Royals had chances to nab the tying run, but they gave away a chance when Suarez turned in some great defense and another when Cain crossed over the plate and interfered with a Holaday throw to second. And of course when Joe Nathan came on. The win pushes the Tigers 6.5 up on the Royals with Rick Porcello (17 GS, 112.1 IP, 3.53 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 1.6 fWAR) looking to take the series Saturday night.
The Moment: Suarez makes a run saving stab with the infield drawn in.
How Was The Game? (July 10, 2014)
A slaughter.
Tigers 16, Royals 4
If you’re a Royals fan, you might want to look the other way. Drew Smyly (15 GS, 87.2 IP, 4.00 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 0.7 fWAR) was fine, but he all he had to do was not pitch like a 16 year old and he was probably going to come out on the winning side. The Tigers bats absolutely demolished Royals’ pitching. Three in the first, three in the fourth, eight in the fifth, and add on runs even later. Everyone had a hit. The Tigers had 9 extra base hits and a whole bunch of singles and walks to boot. You’d think a 16 run attack would warrant a really long recap, but in reality, it’s hard to pick anything out of the experience because it was so preposterously one-sided. The Tigers beat the Royals by a lot of runs. Recap over. Anibal Sanchez (15 GS, 87.2 IP, 3.18 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 2.1 fWAR) tries to get back on track Friday.
The Moment: The Tigers hang 8 runs on the Royals in the 5th.
The First Month of Eugenio Suarez
We can be technical and acknowledge that Eugenio Suarez played his first game slightly over a month ago and that he currently has 29 MLB games played, neither of which equate to “a month,” but stop being so pedantic and getting hung up on titles of blog posts. That’s not a good look on you. What is looking good, however, is Suarez’s stat line through 100 or so plate appearances. What do we know so far?
Let’s start with the basic numbers. In 102 plate appearances he’s hitting .273/.347/.432 (.346 wOBA, 117 wRC+) with a 9.8 BB% and 24.5 K%. He’s at 0.3 BsR and -1 DRS and 0.2 UZR. The whole package is a tidy 0.8 fWAR in about a month of work. If Suarez was exactly this player for a full season, that’s good for about 4.5 WAR. Suarez probably isn’t that good, but that’s totally okay. Not many players are that good.
The scouting report on Suarez’s defense was that he was good enough to stay up the middle and has the arm for short. He’s no Iglesias, but the predominant opinion is that he can handle the position. He’s not an elite runner, but he’s not lumbering either. Both of these reports line up with what we’ve seen visually and in the numbers so far.
So the question with Suarez is the bat…duh. It’s always the hit tool. Scouts always liked his approach and the difference between a good player and a utility profile was going to be how well he squared up the pitches he decided to attack. So far the walks look about right and the strikeouts are only a touch above what you’d think for a guy that gets into deep counts without an elite contact ability.
If you look at his minor league batting lines, you’re expecting right around the player you’re seeing right now. About 9-10 BB%, 20+ K%, high BABIP, decent pop for a SS. A guy’s stats probably shouldn’t translate directly, but the shape of the line is plausible.
The projections aren’t buying it yet and see him as a .290 wOBA guy instead of .340. That’s a world of difference. One is a fringe starter/back up and one is a star. I think the projections are too pessimistic here, but that’s their nature. I don’t think .340 is very likely but if he’s a .320 wOBA guy that would be terrific. He has enough power, discipline, and BABIP skills for that to work for me. I wouldn’t expect a great bat, but I think it’s good enough to keep him in a starting role, although long term that’s probably at 3B or LF for the Tigers, but a lot can happen.
Granted, these are just initial impressions, but I think Suarez can handle himself in the majors. We’ll revisit this again once we’ve had a longer look, but given what the Tigers were trying at SS for the first two months, this is fantastic.
How Was The Game? (July 9, 2014)
A tidy little duel.
Tigers 4, Dodgers 1
Max Scherzer (19 GS, 126.1 IP, 3.35 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 3.1 fWAR) probably won’t end up signing with the Dodgers this offseason, but they’re a big spender and he’ll be a big free agent. After today’s start, they’re either going to be really interested in him or very mad at him, considering that he allowed six baserunners and just one run over seven innings while also punching out seven. The only blemish was a solo home run to someone who isn’t even making $15 million like most of the Dodgers. The bats got a couple of runs in the 1st inning and added single runs in the 4th and 8th to give Joe Nathan enough of a cushion to finish this one off with a little bridge from Joba Chamberlain. It didn’t start well, but the Tigers swept the two game set from one of baseball’s best teams ahead of a four game set to end the first half against the Royals. Drew Smyly (14 GS, 81 IP, 3.89 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 0.8 fWAR) will grab the ball in game one.
The Moment: Jackson leads off the game with a triple to RCF.
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