Justin Verlander Conquers April (with graphs!)
This particular pitcher, Justin Verlander, is widely considered to be one of the best in baseball. You may disagree with that statement, but he’s certainly one of the very best pitchers in the entire league. Yet he has become the game’s best without doing very well in the season’s first month over the course of his career. Even in his Cy Young/MVP season, his April ERA was 3.64. In 2009, it was 6.75!
It’s been a bit of a thing among Tigers fans that Verlander isn’t that good in April. But he’s getting better and that should probably terrify you if you are a major league hitter.
Let’s take a look at his ERA and FIP in April across his career:
There was a time in which Verlander allowed a lot of runs in April and pitched in a way that suggested he would allow runs. ERA tells you what happened, FIP tells you what generally happens to pitchers who pitch a certain way. But over the last few years, he’s conquered April. His 2013 April ERA was 1.83. Imagine what he can do this season now that he isn’t trying to play catch up.
This trend is evident in his K/9 and BB/9 numbers as well:
Verlander has made noticeable improvement in April walk rate over the last few seasons and the strikeout rate hasn’t suffered.
Now maybe Verlander won’t take this great April and turn it into a season better than 2009 or 2011 or 2012, but he very easily could. If he continues his pattern of pitching better in the summer months, then we may be in for a treat. Verlander, I would argue, is nowhere near the top of his game so far this year, but he’s getting good results. When he settles in, it could be awesome.
He’s the richest pitcher in history and his teammates are putting pressure on him to match their great start. Justin Verlander has usually stumbled through April, but he did not do so in 2013. Could this be Verlander’s career year? If April is any indication, clear your calendar for every fifth day and start thinking about a trip to Cooperstown in about 15 years.
How Was The Game? (April 30, 2013)
A blast.
Tigers 6, Twins 1
Sorry for the pun, but the Tigers won with more homeruns. It was Cabrera, then Avila, then Price. And Hunter had a regular RBI in there too. They hammered Vance Worley across 4.2 innings and sent him to the showers in line for a loss. Verlander had a rocky 2nd inning, but limited the damage to one run and ended the night with 8 K’s, 1 walk, and 5 hits across 7 innings. His velocity was up from earlier in the month and his thumb didn’t seem to bother him. He capped off his best April to date with his 3rd win of the season (3-2, 39.2 IP, 1.83 ERA, 2.08 FIP, 1.6 WAR) and you can come back tomorrow at 12:30pm to see just how much better he performed this April than he had in the past. This win made it 5 in a row for the Tigers and 6 of their last 7 to move to 15-10 on the season with a chance to sweep the Twins behind Anibal Sanchez (3-1, 33.2 IP, 10.96 K/9, 1.34 ERA, 1.36 FIP, 1.7 WAR) tomorrow at 1pm. It’s possible we may see some strikeouts.
The Moment: Prince puts it out of reach with a line drive homerun in the 5th.
How Was The Game? (April 29, 2013)
Tigers’ baseball.
Tigers 4, Twins 3
The formula for Tigers’ victories this year is relatively simple: strike the other team out and hit for power. That’s just happens to be what they did on Monday against the Twins. Scherzer provided 7.1 innings of 3 run baseball and struck out 10 while allowing 6 hits and no walks to improve to 3-0 on the season (13.21 K/9, 4.02 ERA, 1.66 FIP, 1.4 WAR). Dirks homered in the 3rd and Prince matched him with a 3 run shot of his own in the 6th to give the Tigers a 4-3 lead that would hold up for good. The ‘pen backed Scherzer with 1.2 innings of scoreless relief from Smyly (who by the way, is killing it so far this season: 10.06 K/9, 2.12 BB/9, 1.59 ERA, 1.47 FIP, 0.6 WAR in 17 innings) and Benoit. They played to their strengths and won their 4th straight game and 5th in their last 6 tries to improve to 14-10 on the season. They’ll try to take the series tomorrow behind the seemingly forgotten ace, Justin Verlander (2-2, 32.1 IP, 1.95 ERA, 2.19 FIP, 1.2 WAR).
The Moment: Prince homers into the visiting bullpen to give the Tigers a 4-3 lead in the 6th.
How Was The Game? (April 28, 2013)
Awesome.
Tigers 8, Braves 3
The Tigers took the field Sunday knowing they had already taken the series against the Braves, but didn’t leave their brooms at home. Doug Fister got the strikeout working early and often and finished with 8 K’s in 7 innings, while allowing 3 runs, all of which came in one awkward inning. The bats delivered for Fister as Austin Jackson and Miguel Cabrera both smacked 3 run homeruns in the 3rd and 7th inning, respectively. Infante also provided a solo homerun and Martinez added a sac fly to round out the score. Alburquerque pitched a scoreless 8th, but put the first two men on in the 9th and Valverde was called on to get the final three outs in the 9th. The Tigers have now won three straight and four of their last five, sending them to 13-10 on the season as they welcome the Twins in for three starting tomorrow behind Max Scherzer (2-0, 24 IP, 4.53 ERA, 1.54 FIP, 1.1 WAR).
The Moment: Jackson slams a three run bomb to left center in the 3rd.
How Was The Game? (April 27, 2013)
A nice bounce back for Porcello.
Tigers 7, Braves 4
The Tigers came into today’s game on a high note thanks to a 10-0 win on Friday, but the starting pitcher, Rick Porcello was coming off his worst performance by results of his career. The Tigers would provide him with 7 runs thanks in part to homeruns by Peralta and Infante and Porcello wouldn’t need more. His only issue came in the 3rd inning when he allowed 3 runs, but none of the balls were hit hard and three batters reached via infield groundballs. His only real mistake was a bases loaded walk to Dan Uggla. Aside from the 3rd inning, Porcello allowed just one hit over his 6.1 innings of work while striking out 5 and using his changeup more effectively than I can ever remember. Smyly finished the 7th with two strikeouts and Benoit got three outs in the 8th despite allowing a Justin Upton homerun. Leyland called for Valverde in the 9th for his second appearance of the season and he retired the Braves in order. With the win, the Tigers improve to 12-10 on the season and set themselves up to go for a sweep of the Braves on Sunday night behind Doug Fister (27 IP, 3-0, 2.00 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 0.5 WAR).
The Moment: Infante delivers a 2-out homer in the 4th to put the Tigers ahead for good.
How Was The Game? (April 26, 2013)
A good old fashion whooping.
Tigers 10, Braves 0
Many, if not all, baseball observers would likely tell you that the Atlanta Braves have been the best team in baseball over the first four weeks of the 2013 season. The Tigers did not seem to care on Friday night as they opened their interleague series against the Braves by destroying them. Not only did the Tigers score 10 runs, but they did so against one of the best rotations in the league and one of the hottest starting pitchers in Paul Maholm. If that wasn’t enough, Anibal Sanchez violated the Braves hitters by striking out 17 in 8 innings while walking just 1 and allowing 5 hits and no runs. Those 17 strikeouts are a Tigers franchise record for a pitcher in a 9 inning game. Put another way, the Tigers had their best offensive output in the same game that they received their best pitching performance, all while playing the league’s best team. All in all, that’s a good day at the office as they improve to 11-10. Sanchez’s line earns him a remarkable -0.88 FIP for the day and lowers his season ERA and FIP to 1.34 and 1.36, respectively. By WAR, he’s now tied for 2nd best for a pitcher in the majors this season with Yu Darvish (1.7) thanks to a 10.96 K/9 and 1.13 BB/9. The Tigers will look to take the series behind Porcello tomorrow afternoon against Kris Medlen.
The Moment: Anibal Sanchez delivers his 17th strikeout to set a career and franchise record.
How Was The Game? (April 25, 2013)
Great, until the bullpen showed up.
Royals, 8, Tigers 3
Two of the better starters in the AL over the last couple of seasons hooked up for a matinee on Thursday at Comerica Park and did a fairly good job limiting the offensive output. Verlander surrendered 2 runs over 7 innings and Shields held the Tigers to 3 over 8. After Verlander left the game with “cracked skin” on his thumb (which has to be the lamest injury you can have!), Leyland called for the rookie Bruce Rondon, who surrendered the tying run in the 8th inning. Rondon wasn’t particularly ineffective in his MLB debut, but he wasn’t brilliant and the Tigers would need to deliver a walk off win to overcome his appearance and they would need it to come in extra innings after Collins retired them in order in the 9th. Unfortunately, Phil Coke had other ideas and melted down in the top of the 10th allowing a double, walk, wild pitch, intentional walk, and another walk to give up the lead with just one out. He left the bases loaded for Darin Downs who allowed a grand slam before getting out of the inning with the score 8-3. The loss drops the Tigers to 10-10 on the season with the Braves coming to town for a weekend set starting tomorrow. It will be Maholm and Sanchez for game one.
The Moment: Gordon puts it out of reach with a bomb to dead center.
How Was The Game? (April 24, 2013)
Not one for purists.
Tigers 7, Royals 5
It wasn’t pretty, but it was effective. The Tigers got ahead early, but Scherzer struggled in the 3rd inning and gave up 4 runs. The Tigers paid Wade Davis back and hung 7 runs on him and chased him after just 11 outs, so things evened out thanks to Cabrera, Martinez, and Peralta. The offense did their part, but Scherzer inconsistently worked through 5 and relied on his bullpen for the final four innings. Alburquerque and Benoit got the Tigers to the 9th, at which point it was time for the return of Jose Valverde, who Leyland put right back into the closer role without a second thought. The reception was mostly positive from the hometown crowd as he arrived to the mound for his first outing in 2013. He went to his fastball for all 18 pitches and got all three Royals he faced despite a long fly ball to Dirks for the final out. It seems fitting a game that featured 13 walks would end with a Valverde return to the 9th inning. He got the job done, but I didn’t see anything from him that makes me less concerned about his return. Verlander and Shields suit up tomorrow for the series finale at 1pm.
The Moment: Victor Martinez is thrown out by 30 feet at home plate in the 4th inning and decides to simply walk to the dugout instead of face a collision or slide at the plate. Tom Brookens is comforted by Gene Lamont.
How Was The Game? (April 21, 2013)
One they should have had.
Angels 4, Tigers 3
After two blowouts to open the series, the Tigers sent Doug Fister to the mound to salvage a win in LA and he was equal to the task on Sunday. Fister went 7 innings and held the Angels to 3 runs (2 earned), but those should all be unearned due to the official scorer calling something that was clearly an error on Cabrera a double. Fister didn’t get a ton of help from his defense, but he provided some of his own and limited the damaged that occurred due to errors and should-be errors. Wilson, on the other side, danced around trouble all day until Prince Fielder broke out in the 5th with a two run homerun to tie the game. Alburquerque entered in the 8th innings to relieve Fister and struck out the side which set up a failed scoring chance in the 9th in which the Tigers left the bases loaded four batters after a blown call at second cost them an out. Al-Al shut the Angels down in the 9th and sent this series finale into extra innings. Despite scoring opportunities, neither side could deliver a run until Mark Trumbo ended the game with a homerun to left field off Phil Coke in the 13 inning, Coke’s third inning of work. No one can blame the pitching for this one, as the defense and bats let the Tigers down in their attempt to win one in LA. The Tigers head home with a 9-9 record after going 4-5 on the roadtrip that ended with a sweep at the hands of the Angels. They’ll be in action again on Tuesday against the Royals behind Max Scherzer at Comerica Park.
The Moment: Trumbo walks off to sweep the Tigers in the 13th.
How Was The Game? (April 20, 2013)
Kind of a laugher.
Angels 10, Tigers 0
The Tigers lost their third straight game today and we can point to two distinct causes. First, the offense has really just not gotten anything going over the last few days. Second, Rick Porcello had one of the most hard luck innings you’ll ever see. He faced 11 hitters, gave up 9 hits, 1 walk, and 9 runs, retiring just two batters courtesy of the double play. At first, you wouldn’t really see how that qualifies as hard luck, but the Angels only hit two balls hard. The rest were weakly hit balls that just barely made it through the infield or died on the infield grass. Leyland mercifully pulled him after he surrendered the second hard hit ball, a grand slam to Trout, but it was too late for any justice for Porcello. It certainly wasn’t a great start, but it wasn’t nearly as bad as the box score indicates. Luckily for the Tigers, Drew Smyly was excellent in relief. He went 5.2 innings, allowed 4 hits and struck out 7 to really save the bullpen. The Angels and the Tigers both failed to do much else offensively and the game whimpered to its conclusion. You can imagine there will be Smyly versus Porcello speculation in the coming days, but it’s far too early to bail on your early season decisions. I’m a Porcello believer, but even if a change needs to be made eventually, you can’t make that call based on the information you have so far. The Tigers fall to 9-8 after today’s loss and lose their first series since the opening one in Minnesota. They’ll try to salvage one behind Doug Fister tomorrow.
The Moment: Mike Trout ends Porcello’s day with a grand slam to center.
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