So hey, fun fact, have you noticed that Porcello is good? Yeah, of course you have because you have eyes and you’ve probably read this site enough to be aware of his many virtues. I don’t need to recount the numbers, but he’s pitching deeper into games than ever, running a crazy low ERA, matching his career best FIP (essentially), getting lefties out, and pitching better with men on base. He’s tracking toward a 4 fWAR season about maybe even a 5 RA9-WAR year. That would be excellent.

I joked on Twitter this afternoon that I had run out of things to say about him because I’m pretty quick to jump on everything related to the 25 year old hurler. Contract future? Check. Stats? Check. Pitch development? Check. Age and context? Check.

Well shoot, what to say?

One thing that Porcello is doing this year that he hasn’t done since 2009 is post a below average BABIP. This is why his ERA is a good bit lower than his FIP. And presumably, he hasn’t become a BABIP-beater meaning his ERA is due for a touch of regression. That’s okay. A .295 BABIP instead of .276 would still deliver great results. We’ve always assumed his BABIP was inflated by pitching in front of a horrible defense, and it was, so let’s investigate his 2014 and see what we find.

You know the overall pattern, but look how much higher his BABIP vs LHH has been over his career. He only has one rough BABIP year against righties but he has a bunch versus lefties. He averages a BABIP about 37 points higher vs LHH per season and overall and that includes this year. It was in the 40+ point range before that.

Okay, so Porcello’s big BABIP jump is against lefties. Let’s did deeper.

Here are BABIP versus LHH based on batted ball type (via Savant’s classifications):

For analytical purposes, let’s compare 2014 to 2013 and 2011. I think 2012 is just a weird outlier for many reasons. I’m not saying it didn’t happen, it’s just not useful for comparisons. He’s in between on fly balls and line drives but way down on ground balls. Let’s not go crazy due to the sample size, but I think ground balls against lefties are clearly a key factor here.

Let’s dig in.

Let’s look at ground balls versus lefties to the right of 2B and to the left.

Okay, so ground balls to the right of second base from lefties. This makes perfect sense for lots of reasons. Lefties killed Porcello, lefties hit the ball to the right side, and the Tigers had some rough defense over there. Remember 2B before Infante? Remember Prince at 1B? Ouch. So if a pitcher got better against lefties and had better right side defense, you’d expect a BABIP drop. That’s what we have.

But of course, it’s not that simple. Of course there are sample size issues to consider. This is an explanation, not a prediction. If Porcello is truly improving versus lefties and has better right side defense this will continue, but all we can say for now is that this is a big driver in his BABIP improvement and it’s not out of line with other observations.

Let’s do sanity check. Let’s peak at Scherzer’s BABIP versus lefties to the right side too:

Man it’s good to have Kinsler and Cabrera over there.

This seems to indicate that Porcello’s not hugely responsible for the improved BABIP, but this is just the opposite of saying it wasn’t his fault when they let him down in the infield. The Tigers improved their right side defense and it’s allowed Porcello to give up fewer hits to lefties. And that effect can compound because it shortens innings and limits damage.

Porcello’s probably not a ton better than last year, but he doesn’t have to be. He’s finally pitching to a defense that’s capable of supporting him. And as a result, he’s not allowing very many runs. That doesn’t make him a better pitcher but it’s allowing everyone to see the great pitcher he already was.

Note: This post contains references to a sexual assault case involving current Mud Hens reliever Evan Reed. Trigger warnings apply. 

I struggled with the decision to write this post. Not because people won’t read it or because I don’t believe it, but because I’m not sure how important my opinion is of the situation. I guess you can be the judge. I’m not going to comment on the legal merits of today’s dismissal. I’m not really qualified to say if the judge acted properly or not. That’s someone else’s job. But this is a blog where Tigers fans come for analysis of the team. There isn’t a sabermetric for morality, but you can’t ignore the implications for Tigers fans. We learned things (read: details) about one of our players today that we can’t ignore and as a result, the right thing for the Tigers to do is to release Evan Reed immediately.

I won’t recap everything about the case or everything that happened today. George Hunter covered the hearing today on Twitter and you can catch up over on his timeline. The Detroit media has covered the case well, in my opinion. So if you need a refresher, you have lots of places to look.

Here’s what we know, without any question. Reed and the victim met, the danced, they drank. Specifically, she says she started to feel strange after she had left her drink unattended while dancing with Reed. Witnesses corroborated that her behavior was out of character as a result. There’s video of Reed and the woman getting out of a van later in the evening in which she needs help to keep her balance. Reed may have even needed to carry her.

Let’s leave it here. No one really disputes any of this. Reed claims they had consensual sex after this point and she says she was raped, and describes an instance in which it is possible that they had sex while she was blacked out and two in which she was awake and asked him to stop after he began without her permission. The next morning she left the building distraught and witnesses verify the aspects of her story from that point forward.

So we know the beginning and end of the story and the middle is the aspect in question. I don’t know what happened in between. Only they do. I don’t have any reason to think she’s lying, but I also wouldn’t want to condemn someone to live life labeled a rapist if they weren’t a rapist. Legal stuff gets tricky here, of course. And Reed isn’t going to jail as a result.

But here’s what we know. The victim, given the best evidence we have, couldn’t walk on her own. Reed doesn’t deny they had sex. She told the cab driver the next morning she was raped. She told a friend. She said she felt like she had been gang-raped. She went to the police. Knowing what we do about victims being hesitant to report and discuss their assaults, nothing indicates to me that she’s doing this for any reasons other than that she believes her story to be true.

Exhale.

So picture this. Evan Reed gets called up in September because the Tigers have bad relievers and he’s on the roster and stuff. Ausmus puts him in the game and the crowd, or a portion of the crowd, starts to boo. People tweet, “Rapist pitching for the Tigers.” They absolutely will. An eight year old kid at the park or on the couch are going to ask their parents, “why is everyone booing the pitcher?”

What do you tell them?

Do you tell them that at the very least he had sex with a woman who probably wasn’t able to offer her consent? Do you tell them he might be a rapist, but they couldn’t convict him because a judge didn’t think the woman was credible enough? Do you brush it under the rug and make up some excuse?

Every answer I have to that question ends badly. Either the answer is: he raped a woman and he’s playing on our team, “oh don’t worry about it,” or some kind of explanation that makes it look like he’s the good guy who was wrongly accused. So either you have to explain a rapist, you have to ignore it, or you have to make him a victim. I can’t live with any of those options.

I struggle with the idea of firing someone for something the courts said they didn’t do, but the courts have a different standard. They’d rather let a guilty man walk free than put an innocent man in jail. That’s how it works. But the Tigers don’t have the burden. They can do what they thing is morally right for everyone.

And the right thing is to cut Reed. Let’s be honest, the Tigers gave Cabrera a slap on the wrists for his past transgressions. Some of that was because the union has policies on alcohol (I don’t think they have any that apply here). Part of it was because the Tigers were on the hook for millions of dollars and above all, they’re a business.

But Reed doesn’t have a guaranteed deal beyond this year and he’s not critical to the team. From a baseball and business perspective, there’s no loss here. And there’s a big moral moment to be had. The Tigers have been good about being anti-bully and pro-LGBT, this is a great opportunity to take a stand with survivors of sexual assault. Heck, they already had a bad moment with Ausmus’ stupid joke. This is a good opportunity to stand behind their apology.

Let’s be honest. The Tigers would love to put this off and quietly not renew his contract this offseason. They probably don’t want a big fuss because big fusses can be ugly. Let it come. Take a stand, let him loose. They can’t deal with the legal system. They can’t undo the trauma that woman experienced. But they can send a message. They can be a powerful voice. They let the legal system do its thing and now it’s time to make a call.

Do you want Evan Reed on the roster? Maybe what he did doesn’t constitute the legal, open and shut definition of what you need for a rape conviction. But that doesn’t matter. Reed had sex with a woman who earlier in the night couldn’t walk on her own two feet. I wish we knew for certain what happened. She says it was rape. That’s enough for me.

We don’t get to put him behind bars, but that’s not what this is. This is about wearing the D and climbing on the mound at Comerica Park. I don’t think I could cheer for the team with him on the field. And I certainly couldn’t explain to a kid why they should do the same. Could Ausmus explain it to his wife and daughters?

I’m sure there will be calls for me to stick to sports, but Evan Reed didn’t stick to sports. Truth be told, there’s probably a player on the team who’s done bad stuff we don’t know about, but we know about this. And odds are, one of the players, or more than one, has a family member who’s a sexual assault survivor. Could you ask them to play with Reed?

I don’t know if the Tigers will do the right thing. I hope they do. Maybe they won’t cut him now, but won’t ever have him pitch for the team again. That’s fine, I guess.. But it could be bigger. It could be a bold statement. It should be.

I don’t want Evan Reed on the team and if he’s ever out on that mound, I’ll be cheering for him to get rocked, even if it’s at a critical moment. The thought of it makes me sick. Release him.

Note: Feel free to comment, but I will delete victim blaming comments. If you don’t agree, say why he shouldn’t be cut. Do not attack a woman who says she was raped.