The First Month of Eugenio Suarez
We can be technical and acknowledge that Eugenio Suarez played his first game slightly over a month ago and that he currently has 29 MLB games played, neither of which equate to “a month,” but stop being so pedantic and getting hung up on titles of blog posts. That’s not a good look on you. What is looking good, however, is Suarez’s stat line through 100 or so plate appearances. What do we know so far?
Let’s start with the basic numbers. In 102 plate appearances he’s hitting .273/.347/.432 (.346 wOBA, 117 wRC+) with a 9.8 BB% and 24.5 K%. He’s at 0.3 BsR and -1 DRS and 0.2 UZR. The whole package is a tidy 0.8 fWAR in about a month of work. If Suarez was exactly this player for a full season, that’s good for about 4.5 WAR. Suarez probably isn’t that good, but that’s totally okay. Not many players are that good.
The scouting report on Suarez’s defense was that he was good enough to stay up the middle and has the arm for short. He’s no Iglesias, but the predominant opinion is that he can handle the position. He’s not an elite runner, but he’s not lumbering either. Both of these reports line up with what we’ve seen visually and in the numbers so far.
So the question with Suarez is the bat…duh. It’s always the hit tool. Scouts always liked his approach and the difference between a good player and a utility profile was going to be how well he squared up the pitches he decided to attack. So far the walks look about right and the strikeouts are only a touch above what you’d think for a guy that gets into deep counts without an elite contact ability.
If you look at his minor league batting lines, you’re expecting right around the player you’re seeing right now. About 9-10 BB%, 20+ K%, high BABIP, decent pop for a SS. A guy’s stats probably shouldn’t translate directly, but the shape of the line is plausible.
The projections aren’t buying it yet and see him as a .290 wOBA guy instead of .340. That’s a world of difference. One is a fringe starter/back up and one is a star. I think the projections are too pessimistic here, but that’s their nature. I don’t think .340 is very likely but if he’s a .320 wOBA guy that would be terrific. He has enough power, discipline, and BABIP skills for that to work for me. I wouldn’t expect a great bat, but I think it’s good enough to keep him in a starting role, although long term that’s probably at 3B or LF for the Tigers, but a lot can happen.
Granted, these are just initial impressions, but I think Suarez can handle himself in the majors. We’ll revisit this again once we’ve had a longer look, but given what the Tigers were trying at SS for the first two months, this is fantastic.
How Was The Game? (July 9, 2014)
A tidy little duel.
Tigers 4, Dodgers 1
Max Scherzer (19 GS, 126.1 IP, 3.35 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 3.1 fWAR) probably won’t end up signing with the Dodgers this offseason, but they’re a big spender and he’ll be a big free agent. After today’s start, they’re either going to be really interested in him or very mad at him, considering that he allowed six baserunners and just one run over seven innings while also punching out seven. The only blemish was a solo home run to someone who isn’t even making $15 million like most of the Dodgers. The bats got a couple of runs in the 1st inning and added single runs in the 4th and 8th to give Joe Nathan enough of a cushion to finish this one off with a little bridge from Joba Chamberlain. It didn’t start well, but the Tigers swept the two game set from one of baseball’s best teams ahead of a four game set to end the first half against the Royals. Drew Smyly (14 GS, 81 IP, 3.89 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 0.8 fWAR) will grab the ball in game one.
The Moment: Jackson leads off the game with a triple to RCF.
Justin Verlander and Two Kinds of Command
For one inning on Tuesday, Justin Verlander stunk. He allowed five runs and you can’t really explain them away with BABIP or bad timing or whatever. It was a bad inning. Bad innings happen and we’re only concerned because they’ve been happening to him more and more this season. One thing stood out about Verlander’s performance, however, and that was the location of his pitches in the first inning compared to the second inning. Observe:
The top graphic is from the first inning and the bottom graphic is from the rest of the game. Let me call your attention to how many pitches are in the strike zone during the first inning. Most of the time when he missed the zone, he missed by big margin and the other times he was right on the edge.
Drop down to the second graphic and notice how he’s delivering a chunk of high fastballs above the zone and inside to righties (away to lefties). They’re close to the zone, but out of the zone. Then you have a population of sliders down and away to right-handers.
I don’t want to make too much of one inning in one start, but I do think it’s worth noting that Verlander was more successful when it wasn’t about throwing strikes and it was about throwing pitches that are difficult to hit. His walk rate is up this year, which leaves people worried about his command, but his strikeout rate is also down because when he does throw strikes, they are more hittable pitches.
I advocated earlier this year for Verlander to pitch differently, recognizing that he doesn’t have 100 anymore, meaning that challenging a hitter with his fastball has to happen in different circumstances than it used to when he had top end gas. Command isn’t just throwing strikes, it’s about throwing quality strikes. I could go up there and put the ball in the zone, but I couldn’t go up there and put it exactly two inches below the outside corner. That’s what you have to do to get good hitters out if your stuff isn’t elite. Expanding the zone a little more with each pitch can really make a difference. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come, but we’ve said that many times this year.
How Was The Game? (July 8, 2014)
A 180.
Tigers 14, Dodgers 5
I adopted a dog in December, so during the 2014 baseball season I’ve occasionally missed watching the beginning of a game because the pup takes his evening way between dinner and the first pitch. Today was one of those days. Like, I have a cell phone and everything, so it’s not like I can’t follow the game, I just can’t watch on my TV. By the time I got to my couch, it was 3-0 Dodgers.By the time I sat on my couch, it was 5-0. That’s not good because Justin Verlander (19 GS, 122.2 IP, 4.84 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 1.7 fWAR) was pitching and we’re trying to get him going. He gave up five runs before I basically did anything! And then, miraculously, the Tigers jumped all over Ryu. They got all five back in the 2nd. Then they got two in the 4th. Then four in the 4th! Then one in the 5th! And two in the 7th! All the while, Verlander didn’t even allow a baserunner for a long time after that first inning and didn’t surrender another run. Even the bullpen didn’t allow a run over three innings. There’s quite a bit you could say (Cabrera tripled!!!!), but I think this might say it all.
Max Scherzer (18 GS, 119.1 IP, 3.47 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 3.0 fWAR) faces Greinke for the sweep on Wednesday
The Moment: The Tigers rally back for five in the 2nd to erase Verlander’s clunker.
How Was The Game? (July 6, 2014)
Not much at which to look.
Rays 7, Tigers 3
On the evening he wasn’t chosen for the All-Star team, Rick Porcello (17 GS, 112.1 IP, 3.53 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 1.6 fWAR) had a rough night, certainly compared to his previous few outings. Coming off two straight shutouts, Porcello was due for a more human performance. The Rays were aggressive early and jumped on him for a few hits and three runs in the 1st and then tacked on runs in the 5th. All told, it was 5.1 innings and seven runs, but it’s hard to be upset given what he’s done recently. The bats grabbed and early run and then remained silent for quite some time until rHunter added one on in the 7th and JD Martinez added another in the 9th. Then it started raining and thundering and lightening as the Tigers drew two walks to put some pressure on but they failed to complete the rally and dropped three of four in the series. They’ll take Monday off and then turn to Justin Verlander (18 GS, 116.2 IP, 4.71 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 1.7 fWAR) against the Dodgers Tuesday.
The Moment: The Tigers mount a 9th inning rally as thunder and lightening engulf metro Detroit.
How Was The Game? (July 5, 2014)
Forgettable.
Rays 7, Tigers 2
In reality, I shouldn’t actively direct you to stop reading the site I created, but you don’t want to read about this game. Anibal Sanchez (15 GS, 87.2 IP, 3.18 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 2.1 fWAR) appeared to be in control early, but absolutely lost it in the 5th and 6th inning, offering walks and hard contact to any Ray who would take them. He ended the day after 5.2 innings, seven runs, six hits, four walks, and just one strikeout. There was nothing to like about this start by the time it was over. Although, if you’re going to throw a clunker, you might as well do it on a day when the offense didn’t deliver either. The Tigers put almost no pressure on Archer and scored their only runs on an Avila homer in the 7th and a Martinez bomb in the 9th. Rick Porcello (16 GS, 106.2 IP, 3.12 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 1.8 fWAR) will get the ball Sunday night against David Price, looking for his third straight shutout and a series split.
The Moment: Avila launches a home run in the general direction of the FSD broadcast team.
How Was The Game? (July 4, 2014)
Explosive (/logs off).
Rays 6, Tigers 3
Drew Smyly (14 GS, 81 IP, 3.89 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 0.9 fWAR) allowed quite a few extra base hits on Friday night against the Rays and it cost him, as he survived just 5.1 innings while allowing five runs on seven hits and a walk while striking out just three. The dagger that chased him is probably worth forgiving as Ausmus probably should have pulled him a batter earlier. At any rate, it wasn’t a great outing but you won’t always get a great outing from your number five starter. The bats added a run in the 4th and two in the 6th and both teams got involved in some hit batter-action that may or may not have been intentional. All told, it was a run of the mill loss in which the other team sent a better pitcher to the mound and neither club made any particularly game changing mistakes. The third game of this four game set will feature Anibal Sanchez (14 GS, 82 IP, 2.63 ERA, 2.69 FIP, 2.3 fWAR) on Saturday.
The Moment: Don Kelly actually speaks in a harsh tone when the umpire made a bad call.
How Was The Game? (July 3, 2014)
Never in doubt.
Tigers 8, Rays 1
Max Scherzer (18 GS, 119.1 IP, 3.47 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 3.1 fWAR) certainly seems to be over his case of the hiccups from earlier in the year and is back to being Max Scherzer. On this night he gave the Tigers eight innings two hit, one walk, one run innings featuring seven strikeouts and almost no trouble after the first two batters. And Max didn’t really have to sweat after the first inning because the Tigers logged five runs during the first six batters on three home runs from Kinsler, Martinez, and Hunter. They chased Bedard early and tacked on additional runs as the night wore on, but it was a bit of a role reversal as people drove in Miggy rather than Miggy doing the driving. After sweeping the A’s, the Tigers got off to a great start against the recently hot Rays on Thursday and continued their resurgent ways. For all the run scoring and quality pitching, it was a pretty nondescript game after the first. Scherzer allowed just one baserunner and the Tigers had a comfortable lead the entire way. They’ll turn to Drew Smyly (13 GS, 75.2 IP, 3.57 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 0.9 fWAR) on Friday.
The Moment: The Tigers hit three home runs in the 1st to jump ahead 5-0.
Which Tigers Belong On The All-Star Team?
I don’t usually get worked up about the All-Star Game voting/selection unless something egregious happens. If Cabrera was left off the team and Eric Hosmer made it, I’d have a problem. Otherwise, there’s no set definition of All-Star and the game doesn’t matter and getting four days off isn’t a bad thing. That said, let’s scan the Tigers roster and see who belongs.
Relievers:
NOPE!
Well, Joba Chamberlain isn’t an awful choice, but there are more deserving people and not many spots. He’s not Greg Holland or Delin Betances. No one else is even really in the conversation.
Starters:
Scherzer, Sanchez, Porcello
All three of these guys are “deserving,” but none of them are slam dunks at all. It depends how many starters a team takes and how many relievers, but Max is 8th in WAR, Sanchez is 15th, and Porcello is 19th among AL starters. Some of that is number of starts and innings, which I’m not a slave to when it comes to the ASG. If a pitcher has 2 WAR in 100 innings or 1.8 WAR in 90 innings, those are basically the same thing at this point in the year. I’ll consider it as a factor more when talking about awards. Min. 50 IP, Sanchez is 8th in ERA- and Porcello is 14th. Max is 28th. Using FIP-(which I care much more about), Sanchez is 5th, Scherzer is 9th, and Porcello is 29th. I think all three have been good enough that inclusion would be deserved, but I’m not going to argue that any of them have pitched well enough that they have to be on the team. Sanchez belongs most, I think, and he deserves recognition, but I don’t think any of them are clear All-Stars if we’re talking about 2014 performance only. If you want to include second half of 2013 numbers, star power, whatever, that’s fine. I don’t mind. But that’s not how I vote.
Outfielders:
JD Martinez?
So Hunter, Jackson, and Davis are obviously out. Among outfielders with 100 PA overall, Martinez is 24th in fWAR, but he only has 162 PA. If we’re looking purely at that group’s offense, Martinez is fourth behind only Trout, Pearce, and Bautista. I don’t think he’ll make it. The AL OF is pretty crowded. If he had started the year with the team and had regular playing time at this rate, he’s an All-Star, but you can’t pull deserving guys out of the game to stick him in.
Infielders:
Cabrera and Kinsler
Cabrera is tied for first in WAR and is a top 5 hitter among the people who are really full time 1B. He’s one of the game’s biggest stars and is deserving. Seems obvious. Kinsler has a harder path because of the voting and the position, but he deserves it. He leads in WAR by plenty and sits right behind Altuve and Cano in wRC+. The problem is Dozier, who probably belongs as the Twins representative. There’s no question Ian is one of the best two or three second basemen in the AL and one of the best players in the league this year. I think he won’t make it onto the team because of the way the process works. That’s too bad, but I bet Ian won’t mind the time off. Although he could be a solid final vote choice.
Catcher/DH:
Martinez
Yeah, not even a question. Leads in wRC+, leads in WAR. Might not win the vote, but an All-Star Game that includes a DH and doesn’t have Victor after this red hot start isn’t worth watching.
I bet that Cabrera and Martinez make it. Maybe Kinsler gets a shot. JD Martinez won’t make it, but has a reasonable case if the season started a month late. The pitchers could all easily be on the team, but probably shouldn’t be. We’ve had a lot of All-Stars lately, but it might be a small crop despite the fact that this is the best start to a season, based on their record, since 2007. Funny, eh?
How Was The Game? (July 2, 2014)
Satisfying.
Tigers 9, A’s 3
The game didn’t exactly start well considering Justin Verlander (18 GS, 116.2 IP, 4.71 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 1.7 fWAR) gave up two big home runs in the first inning, but he didn’t allow another run over five more innings, didn’t walk anyone and pitched out of a couple of jams to set his team up for a big middle innings attack. They pushed across three runs earlier, but blew the game open with six in the 6th to pull away from the A’s and let the bullpen land the plane over the final three innings. Nothing stands out particularly from this game, but it was a comfortable win to cap off a sweep of who I would consider the best team in baseball. The Tigers were dragging there for a month, but appear to have pulled out of the tailspin. They will welcome the Rays to town on Thursday with Max Scherzer (17 GS, 111.1 IP, 3.64 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 2.7 fWAR) going in game one.
The Moment: The Tigers break it open with six in the 6th!
New English D 