2012 Season in Review: Boston Red Sox
69-93, 5th in the AL East
Characterizing the 2012 Red Sox is a difficult task. They won less than 70 games with a big payroll and moderately high expectations. But they had also come off one of the worst September collapses in history and told Terry Francona not to come back in favor of Bobby Valentine. Players got hurt and old and disgruntled. All of that sounds really bad. And it was. But late summer and fall shined brighter. Valentine is gone. Big contracts have been shed and Ben Cherington may have wrestled control of the franchise away from the drunk at the wheel ownership.
On the field in 2012 a number of hitters performed well. Dustin Pedroia led the way (4.5 WAR) and was backed up by David Ortiz (3.0 in 90 games), Adrian Gonzalez (2.8), Cody Ross (2.4), Will Middlebrooks (2.1), and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (2.0). Heck, I almost spelled Saltalamacchia correctly without looking it up, so that’s something in itself.
So while the offense was respectable, the pitching struggled. Jon Lester was good (3.3), but not nearly the ace he needed to be. When Felix Doubront (2.1) is second on your staff in WAR, that should say a lot. Clay Buchholz (1.9) and Josh Beckett (1.8) disappointed and a lot of starts went to Aaron Cook (0.2), Dice-K Matsuzaka (-0.1), and Daniel Bard (-0.4), so that should also say something about your team.
The bullpen didn’t impress, but they had some nice pieces. Nothing to overcome the poor starting pitching, but nothing that caused a great downfall on their own.
In general, the team performed poorly. Every other day, clubhouse gossip came out about people not getting along and the manager fighting off mutinies. It was a supremely silly affair and it is unsurprising that the team played poorly in its wake. Gonzalez, Crawford, Beckett, and Youkilis were all sent packing in the hopes of starting over.
It looks like they will have that chance. With the additions of Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew, and David Ross among others, the Sox should be a leaner fighting machine in 2013. Their pitching should bounce back to some degree and John Farrell should offer a better environment than Bobby V.
This will likely be a year of transition for the Sox. They dumped a lot of heavy contracts on the Dodgers, so they will have flexibility to build a better team going forward. Those fixes aren’t all in place, so the immediate prospects aren’t great, even if the long term prospects are solid. This is a club rich in dollars and fan support and lacking in any serious long term commitments.
September 2011 was the fall from grace. Early 2012 was rock bottom. By September 2012, the Sox were back on track, even if it will take a while to get back to the promise land.
2012 Grade: D
Early 2013 Projection: 78-84
2012 Season in Review: American League Central
The AL Central produced the MVP, pennant winner, and Cy Young runner up in 2012, but other than that, it wasn’t the most exciting year for baseball’s most made fun of division. Sure the Tigers boast a lot of stars and Phil Humber threw a perfect game, but that didn’t earn them a lot of respect.
Here’s how the final standings shook out:
And this is how it played out over time:
Followed by my 2013 projections:
And a final look at my 2012 grades:
AL Central MVP: Miguel Cabrera
AL Central Cy Young: Justin Verlander
2012 Season in Review: Detroit Tigers
88-74, 1st in the AL Central
Lost in the World Series to the Giants
It was a banner year for the Tigers, the hometown team of this website. There was a great deal of fan angst about the club’s performance for much of the summer which fans felt was lackluster (the performance, not the summer). However, the team won the division and the AL pennant and produced the AL MVP and Cy Young runner up. Could the team have played better? Sure, every team could. But the Tigers had a great season on the backs of great performances.
Miguel Cabrera won the MVP and Triple Crown in 2012 and posted an excellent (7.1) WAR. Despite the media narrative, he didn’t carry the team on his own. Austin Jackson, who missed time with an injury, tallied 5.5 WAR as well. Prince Fielder (4.9), Jhonny Peralta (2.6), Alex Avila (2.6 in 116 games), and Andy Dirks (1.6 in 88 games) all did their part too. The Tigers were among the best offenses in baseball by any measure even with two of baseball’s worst regulars, Delmon Young and Brennan Boesch getting lots of at bats.
If the offense was good, the pitching was awesome. Led as always by all-universe ace Justin Verlander (6.8), the Tigers staff dominated. Max Scherzer (4.6) broke out and Doug Fister (3.6 in 26 starts) followed up his ridiculous final two months of 2011. Rick Porcello (2.9), despite fan opinion, was among the game’s best backend starters. Drew Smyly (1.7 in 18 starts) was also very good as a rookie fifth starter when he was healthy. For the last two months of the season, Anibal Sanchez (1.4 in 12 starts) wore the Old English D as well and contributed greatly.
The bullpen was volatile. Dotel did his job most nights and Villarreal and Benoit went through very hot and very cold streaks. Valverde had a typical high save, low value season. It wasn’t a lockdown pen, but it was certainly good enough.
The Tigers shot out of the gate in early April before stumbling heavily in May. By the All-Star break they were back near the front of the division, but couldn’t quite take control. It looked like the White Sox were going to hold them off until a late September surge pushed them over the edge. A five game series win against the A’s in the ALDS preceded a quick four game sweep of the Yankees in the ALCS. The World Series didn’t go well, but the Tigers outlasted 28 other teams in 2012.
Some big names had big years while some supporting players had down years off their 2011 highs. In general, the Tigers underperformed their regular season expectations as a whole, but they stood atop the AL when it was over.
The cavalry is coming in 2013, too. A full season of Anibal Sanchez will improve the club and subbing in Torii Hunter for Brennan Boesch is certainly a few win swing as well. Victor Martinez should be back at full strength to replace the Delmon Young shaped whole in the Tigers batting order. Infante spend a full year at second in lieu of a mix and match. It’s also not unreasonable to expect a bit of a bounce back from Avila and Peralta, probably not to their 2011 highs, but somewhere about 2013.
Put that all together, and the Tigers could easily be 10-15 wins better. That would be a huge improvement and certain return to the postseason. But that of course, assumes no one will get hurt and no one will regress from 2012. It’s certainly reasonable to assume a 5-7 win bump for the team in 2013.
So after two straight postseason berths and an AL pennant, the Tigers will enter 2013 with a chance to win the big prize.
2012 Grade: A
Early 2013 Projection: 92-70
2012 Season in Review: Chicago White Sox
85-77, 2nd in the AL Central
In the first year of the post-Ozzie Guillen era, the White Sox were a surprise team. They played much better than expectation until September, at which point, they collapsed and handed the Tigers back the AL Central. I had the White Sox finishing last in my pre-season predictions, so while they fell apart at the end, they should feel good about 85 wins.
Alex Rios had a nice bounce back campaign (4.3 WAR) and AJ Pierzynski (3.4) had one of the best years of his career. Alejandro De Aza (2.7) and Paul Konerko (2.1) were the other position players to cross the 2.0 threshold.
The offense was too weak to take them into the postseason, but the pitching was another matter. The first two spots in the order, Sale (4.9) and Peavy (4.4) were excellent and Gavin Floyd (2.0) was good enough. Jose Quintana even posted a 1.9 WAR in 22 starts. The last spot was a bit of a mess, the rotation was pretty solid, especially for the division in which they played. The Sox pen was also pretty solid.
The Sox faded down the stretch because they played over their heads during the first few months. They were a very average team and ended up a little better than that in the standings.
The brightest spot for me had to be Phil Humber tossing a perfect game on April 21st (during my bachelor party!) despite having completed the travel from hot prospect to journey/swingman.
The Sox have done virtually nothing to improve the 2012 roster, but they have held it together. I think they know that they aren’t in a class with the Tigers and didn’t want to go for broke when it didn’t make sense to do so. I think they’ll be marginally worse in 2013, even though they totally should have gone for Josh Hamilton.
2012 Grade: C
Early 2013 Projection: 83-79
2012 Season in Review: Kansas City Royals
72-90, 3rd in the AL Central
For the last several years the Royals farm system was much talked about as about ready to pay dividends and this year was no different in that people talked about it and it did not deliver. It was another tough year for the Royals.
Alex Gordon is on the cusp of becoming a star (5.9 WAR) and Mike Moustakas (3.5) and Billy Butler (3.2) were none too shabby. Salvador Perez (2.6 in 76 games) was excellent as well, while Alcides Escobar was quite useful (2.6) himself. Unfortunately, the offense stopped there. No one else cracked the 2.0 threshold and Eric Hosmer and Jeff Francoeur combined to post a -2.3 WAR. That was a minus sign. So while five everyday players were very good, two were very bad. Think about it this way, Hosmer and Frenchie combined to erase Escobar’s production.
That wasn’t nice of them.
Kidding aside, it wasn’t the offense that tanked the Royals. It was the pitching. Was it ever the pitching?
Their two best pitchers by WAR, Greg Holland (2.2) and Kevin Herrara (1.9), were both relievers. If you see that on a team’s leaderboard, they were a bad team. Case closed. Their four best starting pitchers combined for a WAR (6.1) lower than Justin Verlander’s. The pitching in Kansas City was a colossal mess.
So that might mean that improving their pitching staff would be a good idea for 2013, and it is. They, however, did it in a silly manner. They sign Guthrie to a 3 year deal who was worth 1.5 wins over 91 innings in 2012, so if you bank on him repeating that (which is not a good bet), he’s a solid addition. They traded for the terrible in 2012, but somewhat good before that Ervin Santana. They also made the big Wil Myers plus for Shields and Davis trade.
Don’t get me wrong, their pitching got better for 2013, but they did so at the cost of the future, and at the cost of not having Wil Myers to improve their offense by 3ish wins. Basically, the Royals pitching staff should add 5-7 wins in 2013, but their offense would have gotten at least 2-3 of those from simply having Myers instead of Francoeur.
They will be better in 2013, but not enough so that we should expect them to be true contenders. If you’re a Royals fan, enjoy yourself because baseball is wonderful, but don’t expect your team to be anything but average.
2012 Grade: D
Early 2013 Projection: 76-86
2012 Season in Review: Cleveland Indians
68-94, 4th in the AL Central
After a better than expected 2011, the Indians fell back to Earth and struggled to avoid the cellar of one of baseball’s worst divisions. They’re making improvements this winter, but they’re still struggling to forget the last year at Progressive Field.
The 2012 Indians features a really nice group of complimentary players on offense, but they had no one to compliment. The star power was missing. Carlos Santana (3.4 WAR), Jason Kipnis (3.1), Asdrubal Cabrera (2.9), Michael Brantley (2.7), and Shin Soo Choo (2.6) all had good seasons, but five solid players isn’t usually enough to make noise. No one else was worth even 1.0 WAR in 2012.
Justin Masterson (2.3) regressed in 2012, which wouldn’t be such a big deal if he wasn’t the Indians’ best pitcher. No one else hit 2.0 WAR. Only Zach McAllister and Vinnie Pestano even topped 1.0 WAR. The pitching was just bad.
But the club had made some moves this winter to change that. They added Nick Swisher on a 4/56 deal and traded the last year of Choo for Trevor Bauer plus others. They signed Brett Myers (who is a solid pitcher when he isn’t committing crimes) and Mark Reynolds to one year deals.
The Indians made good moves this winter, but they only added complimentary pieces. The team is still short on star power. I like what they can do in the back half of the lineup, but they just don’t have the firepower to match the Tigers in the top half. And they definitely don’t have the pitching.
It’s hard to imagine the Tribe contending in 2013 with the roster looking the way it does, but I do think they are one of those teams who are just good enough that if they have Baltimore style luck, they have a shot to at least make it interesting.
2012 Grade: F
Early 2013 Projection: 72-90
2012 Season in Review: Minnesota Twins
66-96, 5th in the AL Central
It was another dark year for the Minnesota Twins after spending much of the 2000s as the cost effective kings of the AL Central. They nearly missed losing 100 games and could easily be considered the worst team in the American League.
Joe Mauer did his part (5.0 WAR) and players like Josh Willingham (3.9), Denard Span (3.9), Ben Revere (3.4), and Jamey Carroll (2.4) helped along the way. The rest of the lineup was uninspiring, but serviceable for a non-contender.
But good gracious, the pitching was awful. Scott Diamond’s 2.6 was the only WAR above 1.3 for the entire staff. He was also the only pitcher to throw more than 110 innings. By WAR and FIP they were the worst collective staff in all of baseball. Starters and relievers alike were simply terrible.
The Twins are working on a makeover as they traded Span and Revere for prospects and have signed just about every scrap heap innings eater they can find to serve as stopgaps for 2013. They have some interesting position players coming through the system, but the pitching isn’t terribly exciting.
They should have a bit more reliability in the rotation in 2013 with Worley and his compatriots, but I can’t say they’ll be much better. This is a long road for the Twins to travel back to contention.
With the Tigers improving this offseason and the Royals and Indians making modest upgrades in the short term, it seems unlikely that the Twins will improve upon their 2012 showing.
2012 Grade: F
Early 2013 Projection: 65-97
2012 Season in Review: National League West
It was a big year for the National League West as the the World Series champion and the newest baseball juggernaut called the left coast home. The Dodgers spent a lot of the season as a surprise contender and then big time spender while the steady as she goes Giants took home the ultimate prize.
Here’s how the division finished up:
And for those of you tracking how it played out, here are the playoff odds from April to October
My early projection for next season looks like this:
And finally, I look back at my 2012 grades for each club.
The NL West Cy Young is Clayton Kershaw’s in a runaway, and Buster Posey takes the NL West MVP over Chase Headley.
2012 Season in Review: San Francisco Giants
94-68, 1st in the NL West
Won World Series
The Giants won the World Series in 2012, so this is a pretty academic review. They won 94 games in the regular season and had two great series comebacks in the playoffs before stomping on the Tigers on their way to the second title in three years.
Buster Posey’s MVP season (8.0 WAR) led the way for Angel Pagan (4.8), Melky Cabrera (4.6 in 113 games), Pablo Sandoval (2.8), Gregor Blanco (2.4), Brandon Crawford (2.0), and Marco Scutaro (1.8 in 61 games). AT&T Park suppresses offense, so some of the traditional numbers might not look great, but I assure you the Giants position players were good.
When you think Giants, you think pitching. Cain (3.8), Bumgarner (3.4), and Vogelsong (2.6) did their jobs despite a terrible season from Tim Lincecum (1.5). The bullpen was great again and it helped carry them through the postseason.
Cain tossed a perfect game and the team came back from big deficits in the NLDS and NLCS to set up their sweep over the Tigers.
The Giants will keep most of the 2012 crew together going into next season and will likely get a better performance out of Lincecum. They’ll lose the wins from Melky but should get a little more from Scutaro and Sandoval.
2013 will likely look a lot like 2012 for them in regular season and they’re set up for another deep playoff run. The Dodgers look stronger out west, but they’re not a lock for anything.
The Giants won the World Series in 2012 for the second time in three seasons and the party will continue until Opening Day.
2012 Grade: A
Early 2013 Projection: 92-70
2012 Season in Review: Los Angeles Dodgers
86-76, 2nd in the NL West
It was a big year for the Dodgers. They had a strong first half and were in contention for a wild card birth deep into September, but the big stuff happened off the field. They were sold by the McCourts to Stan Kasten, Magic Johnson, and co for $2 billion. They’re finalizing a deal with FOX for TV rights worth around $6 billion. And they also took on every bad contract they could find. This was a year of changes for the Dodgers.
Looking at WAR for position players won’t tell much of the story here because only two of them played more than 130 games, and one of those was a catcher! Injuries and trades limited playing time so the accumulative nature of WAR won’t tell the whole story. Kemp, Either, the Ellises, and Cruz led the way, but Adrian Gonzalez, Shane Victorino, and Hanley Ramirez were among those who contributed over a couple of months.
Clayton Kershaw had another phenomenal season (5.5 WAR) in front of Chad Billingsly (2.7) and Chris Capuano (2.1). Aaron Harang (1.5) did nicely for a fifth starter, but if you’ve been counting, we’re only at four. The rest of the starts were scattered around. The bullpen had some nice pieces, but nothing otherworldly.
The big story of the season was the changing of the guard. Kemp and Either have new deals and a ton of other players have come on board. Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramierard. Kemp and Either have new deals and a ton of other players have come on board. Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Hanlrez, Josh Beckett, and Zach Greinke are among the new faces who will be with the Dodgers in 2013 who weren’t there on Opening Day of 2012.
Certainly the Dodgers ability to spend lots of money instead of no money will make them better, but there is some debate about how much better they’ve really gotten as a result of these moves. I’m of the opinion that they’re still not a lock for the playoffs because they have a lot of question marks.
They won 86 games in 2012, but some of that was good fortune in the early days of the season. Their true ability was probably closer to 81-81 in my book. They’ll add five wins from Greinke and three or four from Gonzalez and Ramirez over what they got in 2012, but I think most of the other moves are probably a wash. They’ll be better in 2013, but I don’t think their massive payroll will guarantee them anything.
2012 Grade: C
Early 2013 Projection: 89-73
New English D 